NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031100040001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 1, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: February 5, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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~~ ~ Intelligence
rational Intelligence Daily
Monday
S February 1979
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
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Contents
Situation Reports
Iran 3
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Overnight Reports 17
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as
the final section of the Daily, will often contain ma-
terial that updates the Situation Reports and Briefs and
Comments.
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Ayatollah Khomeini plans to announce the formation 25X1
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of a provisional government headed b Li erati M em n
o Iran leader Mehdi Bazar an
omeznz expec s a zs s am2c governmen 25X1
zuiZZ secure overwhelming popular support and u~iZZ soon
demonstrate that it alone can rule Iran--and thus orce
Prime Minister Ba~htiar to resi n.
to s are un er
~aay o persua e a ear an e m2 2 ar to accept this
formula.
Khomeini apparently views the negotiations between
the Liberation Movement and the government as easing the
transition to his own government. He would like Bakhtiar
to acquiesce to the establishment of an Islamic re ublic.
Khomeini 25X1
will no accep any power-s aring compromise wi
Ba htiar and will not com romise on his demand that the
monarchy be abolished.
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Khomeini hopes that his provisional government, once
named, can soon hold a referendum to endorse the end of
the monarchy. Khomeini's choice for Interior Minister,
former Rear Admiral Ahmad Madani, will try to begin prep-
arations for the referendum,
If the generals are assured that the military's
prerogatives will be protected in Khomeini's Islamic
republic they may be willing to go along. If they con-
clude that the interests of the military are threatened,
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however, they will probably resist Khomeini's efforts.
The military most likely will seek to act defensively
and move onl when Khomeini actually tries to take
power.
Khomeini apparently calculates that his threat to
wage a holy war against the military will deter it from
moving against the provisional government.
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The political maneuvering may well drag on for some
time. Khomeini has already postponed naming his provi-
sional government once. The risk of a violent showdown
if one side or the other moves reci itatel or miscal-
culates remains high, however.
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
The Tehran Journal today quotes informed sources as
saying that Ayato a Khomeini will name a provisional
government (see the Situation Repo ss
conference scheduled for 0830 EST. 25X1
Tehran radio, in an English-language broadcast to
Europe, today announced that all Iranian banks will be
open three days a week. 25X1
COP~lMENT: Bank employees had gone out on strike
last Tuesday to protest the shootin of demonstrators by
security forces.
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Pakistan
The US Embassy in Islamabad reported yesterday that
"hundreds" of members of the Pakistan People's Party of
former Prime Minister Bhutto were rounded up over the
weekend and that the government postponed the ministerial-
level Islamic conference on industrialization scheduled
to open in Lahore on 18 February. The Embassy believes
that the Supreme Court is about to announce its verdict
on Bhutto's appeal of his death sentence on a murder con-
viction and that the potential public reaction to a ver-
dict was a factor in delaying the Islamic conference.
It also. notes a preponderance of purportedly authorita-
tive reports that the Supreme Court will u hold both the
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North Korea - South Korea
Pyongyang, acting again through its Fatherland Front,
today issued a statement rejecting .Seoul's latest pro-
posal for a meeting of the North-South Coordination Com-
mission to discuss the prospects for reunification. The
North Koreans continue to call instead for the convening
of a preparatory committee for national reunification 25X1
that might include opposition elements in the South. The
text does request a meeting at Panmunjom on 20 Februar
between "liaison representatives" of the two sides.
The US Embassy in Seoul comments that Pyongyang's
willingness to meet with South Korean authorities is a
cautiously positive step. At .the same time, however, the
Embassy notes that. the-idea of a preparatory committee
is unacceptable to Seoul as a venue for serious discus-
sions. Nonetheless, the Embassy is impressed with the
"speed and dexterity" of the North Korean move.
Japan-USSR
According to press reports, the Japanese Foreign
Ministry has announced that Soviet Ambassador Polyansky
today rejected its protest over the. alleged military
buildup by the USSR in the disputed Northern Territories.
The reports state that the Japanese also have protested,
in Moscow, the announcement by the Soviets that begin-
ning today they would conduct a week of bombin ractice
off the largest island in the territories.
COMMENT: ~'he protests foZZoty Zast z~ee7c's Ja anese
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press attention to the alleged buildup. 25X1
--continued
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