NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031200210001-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 24, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence 25X1
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
Top Secret
State Dept. review completed Top Secret
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National Intelligence Daily (Cable)
Briefs and Comments
Iran: Oil Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Vietnam-China: Border Talks . . . . . . . . . . 2
Turkey: Economic Situation. . . . . . . . . . . 4
China: Rumors of Arrests. . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Brazil: Figueiredo Cracks Down. . . . . . . . . 7
France: Cantonal Elections. . . . . . . . . . . 8
Lebanon: Saudis Withdraw. . . . . . . . . . . . 9
France: Demonstration . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
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BRIEFS AND COMMENTS
IRAN: Oil Production
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I
Iranian oil output has increased to mt Zon ar-
re s per day. The Iranian Government has not reported
production figures since 17 March, when it announced that
output was running at 2.5 million barrels per day. The
US Embassy in Tehran says its best information is that
production remains at 2.5 million barrels per day. If 25X1
the Iranians are producing above this ZeveZ, they might
be delaying an announcement in order to protect the high
prices they are getting for their oil exports
I Iranian oil offi-
cials increased production in recent s to meet a need
for hard currency. With about 700,000 barrels per day re-
fined domestically, Iran would have some 2.8 million bar-
rels per day available for export if production is in-
deed 3.5 million barrels per dayl 25X1
Iran has sold more than 20 million barrels at prices
averaging $20 per barrel since it resumed exports on
5 March. Customers are lining up for long-term contracts
beginning in the second quarter of the year at prices
that apparentl will be negotiated after the OPEC meet-
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on Monday.
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China and Vietnam are on record as favoring
beginning talks on their border problem next week, but
conditions set by Hanoi suggest it will be difficult to
hold to this schedule and that an eventual talks will
25X1 be protracted and difficult.
In a Foreign Ministry note issued Wednesday, Viet-
nam established as a precondition for talks a Chinese
withdrawal to the "historic border" as defined by Vietnam-
ese interpretations of two late-19th-century conventions
between France and the Qing Dynasty. In effect, China
would be required to pull back from areas it has held
since 1949, while Vietnam would not surrender any terri-
tory. The land area in dispute is small, probably less
than 100 square kilometers, but the note also claims
most of the potentially oil-rich Gulf of Tonkin and a
25X1 number of islands in the South China Sea, some of which
are now held by the Chinese.
//The note holds out the possibility of Vietnamese
military action against "Chinese occupied areas" in the
For its part, China has repeated its desire to
start negotiations and attempted to portray Vietnam as
the obstacle to beginning talks. China's media on Wed-
nesday said the two sides are on the "eve" of talks, but
accused Vietnam of using its demands for Chinese with-
drawal to the "historic borderline" as pretexts to delay
and undermine the negotiations. China thus far has given
no sign that it will either bow to Vietnam's .reconditions
or offer to compromise on the issue.
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TURKEY: Economic Situation
More than two months after the Guadeloupe summit,
Western countries are having difficulty putting together
a $500-million to $600-million multilateral aid package
for Turkey because the Turks are rejecting policy changes
demanded by the IMF as a condition for their participa-
tion. Western governments and private lenders thus far
have refused to commit funds without an IMF endorsement
even though they recognize the emergency situation.
Turkish efforts to secure economic aid from Arab countries
25X1 also have proven disappointing.
Turkey's intransigent stand, despite an apparent
willingness by the IMF to show some flexibility, has
slowed the negotiations. West German Chancellor Schmidt
has recommended mediation to arrive at a face-saving com-
promise. The West Germans, while prepared to lead an
international rescue effort, are reluctant to bear the
brunt of any ad hoc bilateral assistance program.
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and other harsh measures seem inevitable.
//Prime Minister Ecevit is resisting more stringent
measures because he says they could result in the down-
fall of his government and might even endanger Turkish
democracy. Unless Turkey accepts the IMF loan conditions,
however, the 220 banks that hold most of Turkey's short-
term debts surely will continue to delay rolling them
over and will not provide fresh funds./
The government on Wednesday announced a list of
stabilization measures, including a 10-percent cut in
budget spending, more price increases on products of
state enterprises, higher interest rates, and a multiple
exchange rate system favoring worker remittances and
exports of manufactured goods. Ecevit specifically
rejected across-the-board devaluation. The steps taken
to date are inadequate to deal with Turkey's economic
problems and are unlikely to satisfy the IMF. The piece-
meal, delayed announcement of the austerity program demon-
strates the dissension it has generated within the cab-
inet. A substantial outright devaluation of the lira
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CHINA: Rumors of Arrests
//Rumors are rife in Beijing that party Vice Chairman
Wang Dongxing and 10 other senior officials have been
arrested or expelled from the party. If so, this would
be an important political victory for Vice Premier Deng
Xiaoping. It would leave party chairman Hua Guofeng,
who himself has been under indirect attack, without sig-
nificant support in the leadership and would cap pro-
tracted efforts by Deng to remove from power those who
profited from the Cultural Revolution and who could pose
r- I
obstacles to his policies.//
The rumors cannot be confirmed. Although none of
the officials has appeared in public since the stories
started circulating, one received a favorable mention in
the press Thursday.
All of the five or six Politburo members whose
names are mentioned in the rumors were dealt harsh blows
to their political power at major leadership meetings
last November and December. Most were stripped of all
but their Politburo seats, and most were forced to admit
to wrongdoing. Their removal from the Politburo now
would have the symbolic importance for Hua of making him
appear powerless to prevent the final humiliation of his
supporters and could bring him one step closer to losing
the positions he holds.
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BRAZIL: Figueredo Cracks Down
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President Figueiredo's first policy move--a deci- 25X1
sion yesterday to take over the metalworkers' unions
and replace their leaders--casts doubt on the sincerit
of his promise of political liberalization.
Late Thursday, workers rejected a plan to end their
strike, which began on 12 March. They are demanding
not only higher wages but a greater degree of influence
with management. The workers are also fighting a manage-
ment attempt to discount from any settlement the pay
hike they won last year.
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It is still not certain just how tough Figueiredo
intends to get in order to force compliance. If he uses
troops to empty union halls, for example, or to herd 25X1
workers back to the 'ob, the result could easily be
serious violence.
e crackdown appears to be creating serious en-
sion within the government, not yet two weeks old.
Figueiredo's move could create problems for the US;
it came only hours after Vice President Mondale left
Brazil. The Brazilian left and anti-US forces elsewhere
may well charge US collusion with--or at least approval
of--the authoritarian steps.
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The second round of French cantonal elections tomor-
row will determine political control of several swing de-
partmental councils wielding a fair amount of local power.
Final results of the first round last Sunday, which gave
the left 55.3 percent of the vote and the governing coa-
lition 44.2 percent, reflect little change from the last
such election in 1976. The results so far indicate that
most voters are still willing to support the left in local
elections even though divisions between the Communists
and Socialists keep them from translating this sentiment
into an e ective repudiation of government economic
25X1 policies.
All the parties have found reason to take satisfac-
tion in the first-round results. The Socialist Party got
the most votes, 27 percent (against 26.5 percent in 1976),
indicating that its internal squabbling has not yet dam-
aged its image on the local level. The Communists almost
held their own, declining only a fraction from the 22.8
percent they received last time. The Communist campaign,
supporting working class objections to government economic
policy, yielded electoral dividends in depressed areas.
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The results on the center-right are blurred because
of the large number of progovernment candidates who choose
to avoid running on either a Giscard - Union for French
Democracy or Gaullist ticket and because neither of the
latter parties fielded candidates in all districts. The
Union for French Democracy, which did not exist in 1976,
did extremely well with 21.1 percent; the Gaullists got
12.3 (10.6 in 1976) and, according to the Ministry of the
Interior, another 10 percent was attributed to "diverse
candidates favorable to the government majority." The
Gaullists have protested this interpretation of the re-
sults, rightly claiming that a good percentage of the
diverse voters actually went to candidates they had
backed. An accurate interpretation of the relative
strength of the Union for French Democracy and the
Gaullists, extremely important for future relationships
within the troubled governing coalition, will have to
await the European Parliament election in June
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LEBANON: Saudis Withdraw
//Lebanese Army troops yesterday afternoon began
moving into positions in Beirut occupied by the departing
Saudi contingent of the Arab peacekeeping force. The
move, finally approved by leaders of both the Syrian and
the Lebanese militias, apparently was peaceful and should
allow the Saudis to withdraw from Lebanon within a few
days. The Christian rightists reportedly have formed
committees to keep order among their militiamen while the
transition takes place, but they are also taking precau-
tions in case fighting with the Syrians should break out.
Saudi troops have occupied three of Beirut's more sensi-
tive locations since the UN-sponsored cease-fire ended
the last round of Syrian-Christian clashes last October.//
FRANCE: Demonstration
About 70,000 demonstrators joined in a disciplined
and peaceful march on Paris yesterday that had been
called by the Communists to protest layoffs in the steel
industry. Youthful gangs, which have been increasingly
resorting to violence, were responsible for clashes with
riot police that took place after the march. Several
policemen were injured, some seriously.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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