NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031300030002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 4, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
4 April 1979
State Dept. review completed
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North Korea - South Korea: Political Talks.
Special Analysis
USSR: Challenge to African Policy . . . . . . . 15
Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section of the Daily, will often contain materials
that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and
Comments.
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NORTH KOREA - SOUTH KOREA: Political Talks
After two months of procedural sparring, attempts to
resume a dialogue between North and South Korea remain
deadlocked on the key issue of representation. Pyong-
yang, which wants the contacts to continue and also wants
to appear responsive, has called for another meeting on 25X1
10 April. After three meetings at Panmunjom, Seoul is
still wary of North Korea's intentions but prob bl rec-
o nizes that it cannot temporize indefinitely. 1 -1
The preliminary talks on re-establishing the dialogue
bogged down in mid-March because South Korea wanted to
negotiate on a government-to-government basis and was 25X1
ls of
ti
d
"
"
a
en
cre
unofficial
reluctant to recognize the
the North Korean delegates. Since then, the two sides
have been unable to agree even on a meeting date.
The North Koreans, in continuing to pursue a dialogue
on reunification, hope to deflect pressure from the major
powers for an imposed "two Koreas" solution and facili-
tate further US troop withdrawals. Pyongyang also hopes
to undermine the legitimacy of the government of Presi-
dent Pak by o enin the talks to opposition groups in
the South.
North Korea has ended most of its polemics against
the Pak government and has modified its negotiating
stance somewhat to accommodate Seoul's position. The 25X1
North has also opened indirect and unpublicized trade
contacts with the South, a type of limited confidence-
building gesture that it avoided during the overnment-to-
government dialogue of the early 1970s.
The South Koreans, who have been taken aback by the
speed and dexterity of North Korea's political offensive,
1-o rata nrnhl ams in developing a coordinated response.
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USSR: Challenge to African Policy
The USSR owes what influence it has in Africa today
primarily to its military assistance programs. Some re-
cipients of Soviet military aid, however, are now less
concerned about their security needs and increasingly in-
terested in economic development. In recent years, the
USSR has not used economic aid to compete with Western
countries for influence in the Third World, but some So-
viet scholars are urging Moscow to alter its approach to
development assistance in an effort to preserve its gains
from military aid. Bureaucratic inertia, however, will
probably prevent a major chap e in Soviet policy in the
short run.
The Nigerian press has become particularly critical
of Soviet assistance in Africa. One recent commentary
in a progovernment newspaper complained that the Soviets
concentrate on giving military assistance to countries
whose survival is threatened but do not follow up with
economic development assistance that is needed over the
long haul. According to the author, these countries
that would prefer "to remain socialist" turn to the West
for what Moscow is unwilling to supply. The editorial
cited the examples of Guinea, Sudan, and others and pre-
dicted that Angola, Mozambique, and Ethiopia will also
turn to the West when the enthusiasm of "military brother-
hood" with the USSR has waned.
Nigeria has received only small amounts of Soviet
military aid, but the government's dissatisfaction with
Soviet performance in construction of a major iron and
steel complex has contributed to a general decline in
relations with the USSR.
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Angola has not publicly criticized Moscow's military
or economic assistance but the government of President
Neto is exploring the possibility of diversifying its
sources of economic assistance. Until now it has re-
ceived less than $5 million of Soviet economic aid and 25X1
Neto has made overtures to the US, moved to improve re-
lations with France and Portugal, and is considerin as-
sociation with the EC under the Lome Convention.
The Soviet-Ethiopian relationship is a marriage of
convenience. During the past year, both sides have tried
to minimize frictions in their relationship in order to
concentrate on military objectives in Eritrea and the
Ogaden. Now that Ethiopian leader Mengistu seems to 25X1
have weathered the worst militarily, he is apparently
looking ahead to economic development. This will pre-
sent new challenges to the Soviets.
Even when Ethiopia's need for Soviet military sup-
port was at its peak, Ethiopians were25X1
privately critical of e Soviets. ey complained 25X1
about the price the Soviets paid for Ethiopian coffee
and the inflated prices the Soviets charged for civil
aircraft and military equipment.
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Soviet Aid Policies
In its aid programs in the Third World, the USSR has
consistently tried to avoid spending hard currency. It
has emphasized military aid and high-visibility heavy in-
dustrial projects in countries undergoing sociopolitical
transformation of an "anti--imperialist" nature. In ef-
fect, aid was directed at political, not economic, goals.
This has offered short-term Payoffs but fostered long-
term setbacks.
Some scholars at the USSR's African Institute ques-
tion this approach. They have told US officials that So-
viet aid should give increased attention to agricultural
and rural development. They want more attention given to
the local traditions of developing societies rather than
insisting that development follow the Soviet model. In 25X1
agriculture
for exam
le
the
su
est th
t S
i
l
t
t
,
p
,
y
gg
a
ov
e
-s
y
e
collectivization would serve more as a general guideline
than as a precise model for agricultural reform.
The conservative Soviet system does not encourage
or promote those who challenge established policies, and
normally the views of these scholars would be unlikely
to reach the policymakers. In this case, however, For-
eign Minister Gromyko's son is the director of the Afri-
can Institute, and this could provide some access to de-
cisionmakers. At a minimum, the fact that some discus-
sion is taking place indicates increased sensitivity to
the shortcomings of Soviet aid policies.
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
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Vietnam-China
According to a Western wire service report, Viet-
namese Vice Foreign Minister Phan Hien, responding to a
question in a press conference today as to whether Hanoi
would no longer make China's withdrawal of troops from
Vietnamese territory a precondition to negotiations,
allegedly replied, "Henceforth, the sole condition is
that the Chinese negotiators apply for a visa to enter
Vietnam." Phan Hien, who would be the chief Vietnamese
negotiator, said the talks could begin about next Tuesday.
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USSR-Angola
A Western wire service quotes Luanda radio as saying
yesterday that a large Soviet naval fleet is holding 25X1
d
b
-
roa
"navigation exercises" in the South Atlantic. The
cast said one of the ships, the aircraft carrier Minsk,
is in the harbor of the capital for a goodwill visit.
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EC-Turkey-Greece
EC foreign ministers agreed yesterday in Luxembourg
to create a special fund of around $100 million to make
grants and soft loans to Turkey. The aid is an interim
step to a longer term financial accord to be discussed by
EC and Turkish officials later this year. The foreign
ministers also set 28 May as the date for signing the
treaty admitting Greece as the tenth EC member-state, the
phased entry to begin in 1981. F77 I 25X1
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China
The US Embassy in Beijing reports that the founder
and leader of the Chinese dissidents' human rights
alliance was arrested at Democracy Wall in the capital
today as he attempted to display a poster opposing of-
ficial criticism of the human rights movement. The Em-
bassy notes that tension was high among the crowd of 25X1
200 to 300 observers, but the human rights activists'
scuffle with public security police was brief and gen-
erall nonviolent. Yesterday, the Embassy reported
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30 dissident leaders had been arres e in a crackdown
against open protest in the capital. Officially inspired
activities to commemorate the Tiananmen Square incident
are continuing today and should peak tomorrow, the third
anniversary of those demonstrations in support of a then-
beleaguered Deng Xiaoping. 25X1
Spain
Incomplete returns from yesterday's municipal
elections in Spain indicate the outcome will likely
approximate what had been anticipated. Prime Minister
Suarez' Union of the Democratic Center is doing quite
well outside the major cities other than in the troubled
Basque region, where the Basque Nationalist Party in
particular apparently decisively defeated the Socialists
as well as Suarez' party. The Socialists reportedly
have won outright control of Barcelona's municipal
council--and thus will be able to select the mayor--but
may need Communist support to control the council in
Madrid; Communist Party chief Santiago Carrillo will
meet with Socialist leaders today on that subject.
Voter turnout was officially pegged at 65 percent,
slightly below the level of participation in the na-
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According to Western wire service reports from
Luxembourg, where EC foreign ministers were meeting,
Italy early today held up final EC acceptance of the new
terms for the 95-nation General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade. The agreements are scheduled to be initialed in
Geneva next week, and both Italian and EC officials hope
that Rome's desires--principally better terms for Italian
table grapes and woolen textiles--can be resolved by that
time. The UK and France reportedly also indicated concern
over the adequacy of concessions the EC Commission has ob-
tained in recent negotiations with the US and Japan.
The US Embassy in Moscow reported yesterday that
the Soviet Ministry of Justice has published a "white
book" rehashing earlier charges of Zionist and Weptern
intelligence collusion in anti-Soviet activities.)
The Embassy tin as the tone an
the new pu cation "fiercely combative" and believes
it received a review at fairly high levels in Moscow.
Soviet authorities, the Embassy suggests, are indeed
disturbed over the current record levels of emigration
applications and would like to find ways, other than
simple refusals, to keep emigration under control.
The island's voters today are electing their first
Parliament under the home rule approved earlier this
year in a referendum. Denmark will retain responsibility
for defense and foreign affairs affecting Greenland but
will gradually relinquish other aspects of its control
after home rule is instituted on 1 May.
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