NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031400040002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 4, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
Friday
4 May 1979
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Briefs and Comments
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UK: Election Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 25X1
Nepal: Possible Moves Against Demonstrators. . . 9
Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section of the Daily, will often contain materials
that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments.
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When counting stopped early this morning Britain's
Conservative Party was projected to win a substantial--
but as yet undetermined--majority in Parliament. With
511 of the 635 constituencies reporting, the Conserva-
tives were winning almost 44 percent of the vote and
had registered a net gain of 50 seats, while the Labor
Party was receiving just over 39 percent and had Zost a
net 46 seats. The usually heavy Conservative rural vote,
which normally comes in Zate, is expected to push up the
Tory margin of victory further. 25X1
As expected, Labor is winning a majority of the ur-
ban, industrial seats, but the Conservatives have made
substantial inroads in these districts. Support for the
Scotish Nationalist and Liberal Parties, as predicted
in pre-election polls, has declined sharply. Final re-
sults will be known later today.
Parliament will convene next Wednesday and, if these
trends continue, a government will take office shortly
thereafter that for the first time in several years will
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not have to rely for its survival on minor party support. 25X1
The first major tasks facing Thatcher will be to announce
a cabinet, which she is expected to do soon, and to pre-
pare a budget, which will be announced by mid-June.
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It is likely that a Tory cabinet will be dominated
by moderates whose most difficult tasks in the immediate
future will be to formulate an economic policy and attempt
to define a workable relationship with the trade unions.
Although the new budget will not depart radically from
the past, a new Conservative government can be expected
to implement some of its more critical campai n promises,
particularly cutting personal income taxes. 25X1
-CIA Late Item-
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NEPAL: Possible Moves Against Demonstrators
Nepalese King Birendra may be edging closer to using
the Army to quell the violent demonstrations by students
and workers that began nearly a month ago. On Monday,
the King reportedly signed a temporary order authorizing
the Army to declare martial Law should he become incapac-
itated or should the present situation worsen appreciably.
Unrest has increased as others have joined the stu-
dent protests, and there have been some deaths in clashes
with police. About 30 politicians--including B. P.
Koirala, probably the most important opposition leader--
have been arrested.
The King probably does not yet consider military
force necessary, but he wants to be sure that the Army
is prepared to act if called upon. He may also have
agreed to the mandate in order to quiet hardliners within
the palace and the military. Shortly before the King
gave his authorization, leaders of the Army--which has
never fired on Nepalese civilians--agreed that the Army
should be prepared to take control if rioting leads to
anarchy and that military units should defend themselves
if attacked. 1 1-1
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
Saudi Arabia - Egypt
News reports suggest that Saudi Arabia has not yet
decided to break diplomatic relations with Egypt. The
Middle East News Agency reports that the Saudi Ambassa-
dor, who was recalled to Riyadh last month following the
Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, returned to Cairo yester-
day. Neither the Ambassador nor Egyptian officials were
available for comment.
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Egypt-Israel
The Middle East News Agency reports that the Egyptian
Foreign Ministry yesterday called for a summit meeting of
Islamic leaders to discuss the future of the Arab sector
of Jerusalem. The ministry entrusted Morocco's King
Hassan with the role of organizing the meeting. The
Foreign Ministry also urged the Islamic Conference of
Arab Foreign Ministers that opens next Tuesday in Morocco
to "devote its efforts to the liberation of the Arab
sector." Cairo linked its participation in the confer-
ence to King Hassan's acceptance of the Egyptian pro-
posal..
COMMENT: The central issue at the meeting in Morocco
will be an effort by hardline Arab states to expel Egypt
from the Islamic Conference. 25X1
China-Vietnam
The third session of the Sino-Vietnamese border
negotiations ended yesterday in Hanoi with the Vietnam-
ese delegation leader Phan Hien denouncing Peking's
eight-point proposal for settling the dispute. Phan
Hien, according to a Western news agency report, de-
scribed the Chinese leaders as "criminals" who were
guilty of conducting a "barbarous war of extermination
with even more cruel methods than the Hitlerian fascists."
Observers described Hien's hard-hitting speech as the
toughest stand taken b either side since the border
negotiations began.
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Israel-USSR
According to news reports, the Soviets this year
will raise the level of the delegation traditionally sent
to Israel to commemorate the anniversary of the victory
over Nazi Germany. There is speculation--almost certainly
unfounded--that this development is a prelude to the res-
toration of diplomatic relations between the USSR and
Israel. The leader of the four-man delegation will be
Aleksandr Bubin, veteran Izvestia correspondent reputed
to be close to President Brezhnev. Two of the other
three delegation members are prominent Soviet Jews.
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