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Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
April 6, 2004
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Publication Date: 
May 9, 1979
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PDF icon CIA-RDP79T00975A031400080001-4.pdf377.25 KB
Directgraof Top Secret Intelligence 25X1 National Intelligence Daily Wednesday 9 May 1979 State Dept. review completed , Top Secret 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031 copy Jim 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 25X1 25X1 25X1 Special Analyses Panama-US: The Royo Visit . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the final section of the Daily, will often contain materials that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments. 25X1 App 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 25X1 25X1 PANAMA-US: The Royo Visit President Ro.yo's visit to Washington this week co- incides with a break in Panama's policy of public re- straint toward what it regards as hostile US Congres- sional actions on legislation to implement the canal treaties. Royo--still very much the instrument of Na- tional Guard commandant Torrijos--will convey a clear message of concern. He wants reassurances of a strong commitment to the treaties from President Carter, which his government can use for both psychological and poZiti- cal support. Torrijos is always capable of an outburst, but for the time being Panama--if armed with strong re- assurances--would probably return to a more controlled level of reaction. 25X1 Royo is an able man, but he speaks for no constitu- ency of his own. His public letter of complaint to President Carter on 27 April warning against any changes in the treaties was clearly dictated by Torrijos. The General, not Royo, has made the final decisions on treaty 25X1 implementation issues that have arisen in discussions with the US. At this point, Royo is not politically capable of independent initiatives. Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO3140 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Domestic Problems Royo faces both economic and political problems at home, but neither-he nor Torrijos is anywhere near being backed into a corner by domestic pressures on the treaty legislation. Because Panama's gradual political liberal- ization permits some open public debate, the administra- tion may be more prone now than in the past to speak out--especially on the implementation battle--than to leave the field to its domestic political opponents. This, however, is at least as much by choice as neces- sity. For four weeks in March and April, for example, the government chose to play down US Congressional ac- tions, and there were no serious domestic political re- percussions. The government's chief political foe, three-time President Arias, has tried to take advantage of the im- plementation issue, but the opposition is still disorga- nized and has not yet developed sufficient public support to exert any major influence. The government is also still able to deal with student groups despite the fact that students stoned government buildings last week to protest recent official food price hikes. Reaction to the Congressional Debate Until late April, Panama's restrained reaction to the treaty implementation debate reflected a clear recog- nition that its interests would best be served by not being goaded into public debate. Panamanian press reac- tion was balanced and muted, and the government limited its efforts to augmenting its Washington Embassy with ex- perienced personnel to lobby for Panamanian objectives. Panama's stance was ublicl pegged to its faith in Pres- ident Carter. Torrijos, however, is never far from losing his patience, and he has been increasingly irritated by suc- cessive Congressional actions. The leak last month of an unclassified US Embassy economic report that outlined Panama's extremely heavy debt burden caused a major furor. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031400080001-4 In a broadcast last nignt, iff top adviser Escobar Bet ancourt claimed the leaking of the Embassy report was part of a deliberate anti-Panama effort. Torrijos' design is primarily to put more heat on the US executive and, secondly, to wave the flag at home. Royo's Objectives Royo is seeking public assurances that the Carter administration and Senate will fight unwarranted changes in the treaties by the House of Representatives--assur- ances Panama can use to ward off political embarrassment at home. Royo is also seeking broader reiteration of 4- 1, US a t -+- to Panama Panama and its many credi- m 25X1 25X1 e comm tors view the US stake in the country as so high that 25X1 Washington, in effect, underwrites all loans to the coun- try. Thus, any sign of flagging US interest--and the Em- bassy report was interpreted in this vein--sends shudders through Panamanian official and financial circles. Specifically, Royo will seek assurances that the administration will fight hard to turn around the changes proposed in the Murphy implementation bill, which would widen US Congressional and military control over the canal commission as well as all but preclude Panama's receiving the $10 million annua'L contingency payment es- tablished in the treaty. Royo will also want to be re- assured that the White House will attempt to reverse or ameliorate the recent Congressional moves to slash eco- nomic and military aid to Panama. Outlook Both Torrijos and Royo wish to avoid jeopardizing the implementation process and generally recognize that any aggressive public actions by Panama would complicate 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A031400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 25X1 25X1 5X1 the US. Torrijos' adviser Esco ar s speecn for instance, avoided bellicose threats and expressed the belief that the Senate would not permit violations of the original treaties. Within the Panamanian hier- archy, majority opinion--and Torrijos most of the time-- favors a watchful but reasonable pose for now. That will not preclude occasional efforts to prod the US when Panama feels its interests are being neglected or to provide a low-level nationalistic distraction for domestic consump- tion. Royo's visit does reflect an underlying but very real worry about the Carter administration's ability to avoid unacceptable dilution of what Panamanians regard as their treaty victory. Torrijos is occasionally deeply frustrated at being forced into an unaccustomed "do-noth- ing" posture, in part by his genuine admiration for Pres- ident Carter. As long as Torrijos remains in power, therefore, there is an outside chance that sudden irri- tation will provoke him into a hasty and inappropriate public response. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31410080001-4 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 (The items in the Overnight Reports section have not been coordinated within the intelligence community. They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current Operations with analyst comment where possible from the production offices of NFAC.) 25X1 France-Iraq A Western news service quotes French officials as having said yesterday in Paris that Iraq will soon sign a $1.5-billion deal to purchase 100 Mirage F-1 fighter- bombers and other sophisticated arms from France in ex- change for oil. Final negotiations were held during Iraqi Defense Minister Talfah's recent visit to Paris, and the head of the French Defense Ministry's division for international arms sales reportedly will go to Baghdad to sign the contract. 25X1 EC-Turkey According to a Western wire service report, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministers of the EC Nine after their meeting in Brussels yesterday announced their agreement to a series of measures aimed at helping bail Turkey out of its economic problems. They reportedly will propose to Ankara a new fi-e-year financial pro- tocol described only as larger than the current one, which is said to provide $410 million; around $100 million in nonrepayable "exceptional" assistance; and a five-year freeze on Turkish tariff-cutting obligations to EC member-states. 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO3140 080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 25X1 West Germany - UK The US Embassy in Bonn reports that Chancellor Schmidt, Foreign Minister Genscher, and Finance Minister Matthoefer will go to London tomorrow for talks with Prime Minister Thatcher and her cabinet. Both British and West German sources of the Embassy have said that the consultations will be more than a get-acquainted ef- fort. The West Germans hope to leave London with some idea of the broad outlines of Tory thinking on EC, secu- rity, and international economic topics. UK-Rhodesia 25X1 The US Embassy in London has reported that the ap- pointment of Lord Carrington as Foreign Secretary met with an almost audible sigh of relief from the local Africanist establishment, since he is well-versed in the complexities of southern African issues and sympathetic to nationalist aspirations. The Embassy expects Lord Carrington cautiously to pursue a new policy line toward Rhodesia by encouraging Bishop Muzorewa to expand the constitutional basis of the government and by holding out the prospect of eventual recognition and the lifting of sanctions. The Tories, the Embassy added, will be watching closely the development of US policy, particu- larly the President's determination on the fairness of the Rhodesian election and the prospect of Congressional action on the sanctions issue. Italy 25X1 The government's interministerial security committee will convene today, the first anniversary of Aldo Moro's death, in special session to consider antiterrorist meas- ures. The US Embassy in Rome reports that Prime Minister Andreotti is likely to announce some decisions enhancing the position--or at least the image--of the government 25X1 in its fight against terrorism. Two proposals under dis- cussion are the use of the military to strengthen security during the current election campaign and the allotment of over $260 million to modernize the police forces. 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO314P00080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Peru-Argentina-Chile Peru announced this week that President Morales Bermudez will make his often deferred visit to Argentina the middle of next month, thereby returning President Videla's trip to Lima of 1977. The US Embassy in Lima notes that Morales Bermudez, until early this year, had been under some pressure to pursue a policy of detente with Chile that would have implied a need to meet sep- arately with Chilean President Pinochet if a trip to Argentina were made. The Embassy comments that Peruvian policy has now changed to a clearly pro-Argentine tilt, with both countries sharing a military concern regarding Chile. Australia-Indonesia Australian Prime Minister Fraser and Indonesian President Suharto, who have not met since 1977, will con- fer on Bali this weekend. Australian Embassy officers in Jakarta said Fraser is seeking a general discussion of the regional situation, including Indochina, China, the refugee problem, and international economic affairs related to the current meeting of the UN Conference on Trade and Development in Manila--which Fraser, but not Suharto, is attending. The Communist Party's congress opens today. The five-day meeting apparently will be dominated by the is- sue of whether to continue the political alliance with France's Socialists. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975A0314Q0080001-4 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4 Afghanistan The US Embassy in Kabul reported yesterday that the Indian and Pakistani consuls in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar Province across the Khyber Pass from Paki- stan, have described the province's security situation as going from bad to worse, with daily antigovernment violence. The consuls--as of last week--thought there was a shortage of Afghan troops in the province, and noted that untrained civilians were assuming some secu- rity functions. The Embassy believes the Afghan Govern- ment would strain every resource to keep the road from Kabul through the province to Pakistan open for security, prestige, and economic reasons. F77 I 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO314Q0080001-4 25X1 Top Secret Top Secret Approved For Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP79T00975AO31400080001-4