NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T00975A031400120001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 6, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 14, 1979
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
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National Intelligence Daily
Monday
14 May 1979
Top Secret
State Dept. review completed
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Rhodesia: Efforts to Unify GuerriZZa Forces. . 2
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Overnight Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
The Overnight Reports, printed on yellow paper as the
final section of the DaiZy, will often contain materials
that update the Situation Reports and Briefs and Comments.
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RHODESIA: Efforts to Unify Guerrilla Forces
The announcement by Rhodesian guerrilla Leaders
Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe in Addis Ababa on Saturday
that they will unify their fighting forces and Later adopt
a joint constitution will have little practical effect.
If the Leaders actually proceed with plans to establish
a joint military command, tensions within each guer- 25X1
riZZa organization, particularly Nkomo's Zimbabwe
African People's Union, will increase.
Nkomo's ZAPU and Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National
Union are already linked by a coordinating committee and
a defense council created when the two organizations
formed the Patriotic Front in late 1976. Tribal and
political rivalries, however, have prevented the com-
mittee and council from functioning effectively, and the
Front has never served as much more than a framework for
coordinating guerrilla negotiating positions. In the
wake of the Rhodesian elections and escalating Rhodesian
raids into neighboring states, the presidents of the
Frontline States have increasingly pushed the guerrilla
leaders to unify their forces, but they have had little 25X1
success.
We presume the guerrilla leaders' reference to a
constitution for governing Rhodesia was for the benefit
of the USSR and Cuba. The Soviets and Cubans have been
planning for several months to bring Nkomo and Mugabe
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together to
et them to agree to establish a
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(The items in the Overnight Reports section have not
been coordinated within the intelligence community.
They are prepared overnight by the Office of Current
Operations with analyst comment where possible from the
production offices of NFAC.)
Iran-US
Tehran radio has carried the text of a terse state-
ment by the Foreign Ministry dated yesterday announcing
that the government was rescinding the diplomatic priv-
ileges--including immunity from trial and prosecution--
of US "military advisers in Iran."
The US Embassy in Tehran reports today that in ad-
dition to the anxiety in the Iranian Jewish community
after one of its members was executed last week, the
Bahai community has come under increasing pressure. As-
sets of leading Bahai adherents have been taken over by
pro-Khomeini committees, and at least two industries
owned by Bahais have been acquired by recently created
Islamic foundations. The Embassy notes that when secu-
rity tensions go up, minority communities in Iran feel
the heat--the alleged slayers of Ayatollah Motahari, the
Forghan, are described in one account as a Bahai-led
group responsible to Israel and to Western imperialism.
The US Charge is scheduled to meet with Foreign Minister
Yazdi tomorrow and plans to raise the status of Iranian
Jews with him.
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A conference of the foreign ministers of the Warsaw
Pact opens today in Budapest. The US Embassy in Bucha-
rest has learned
at the formal agenda is limited to
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"disarmament" an preparations for next year's follow-up
conference in Madrid on implementation of the Helsinki
accords on European security and cooperation signed in
1975. F_ I
Comment: The "disarmament" rubric presumably will
cover tutus of the East-West force reductions nego-
tiations and allow Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko to
discuss the terms of the SALT II treaty.
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Defense ministers of 10 NATO countries that comprise
the Eurogroup meet today in Brussels on the eve of the
semiannual ministerial-level gathering of NATO's Defense
Planning Committee, which will be held there tomorrow and
Wednesday. The Eurogroup participants will discuss co-
operation in arms production and procurement and prospects
for the SALT III negotiations, especially the issue of
"gray area" nuclear weapon systems not covered by either
SALT I or SALT II. 25X1
Kuwait-Egypt
funds they know the Egyptians cannot provide.
The financial adviser to the Amir of Kuwait acknowl-
edged to the US Ambassador yesterday that, in practical
terms, Kuwait cannot withdraw all its funds from Egyptian
banks, as Cairo does not have the foreign exchange to
honor such withdrawals. The adviser also said that while
Kuwait would provide no new aid for Egypt, he doubted
there would be much of a pullout of Kuwaiti investment
because most of it was locked into equity positions in
joint ventures, including the Sumed pipeline. The Ambas-
sador comments that the Kuwaitis may be giving their Arab
brethren the impression that they are putting the squeeze
on Cairo while not pressing for the actual return of
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France-Indochina
The US Embassy in Paris reports that while France
will be represented at the meeting on the Indochinese
refugee problem opening in Jakarta tomorrow, it will not
participate in the proposed special processing center for
the refugees. According to a Foreign Ministry official, 25X1
France in July will cut the number of Indochinese ref-
ugees it allows in from 1,000-1 100 a month to 500-600 a
month. The Embassy has learned
that this decision was made Prime
Minister Barre an approved by President Giscard.
the decision stemmed from financial 25X1
and unemployment considerations, although there was some
concern over the possibility of racial problems as rem
ugees from Indochina congregated in the Paris area.
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Prime Minister Desai's special envoy Dinesh Singh
arrives in Singapore today at the start of a seven-coun-
try tour--the ASEAN member-states, Vietnam, and Sri Lanka--
to sound out these countries regarding the handling of
the Kampuchean recognition issue when the Nonaligned
Movement's Coordinating Bureau has a ministerial-level
meeting in Colombo early next month. Foreign Minister
Vajpayee and his deputy will each visit three Middle East
capitals this month, and the US Embassy in New Delhi re-
ports that the prevention of Egypt's expulsion from the
nonaligned movement "has become a major goal in Indian
diplomacy."
The Embassy also notes that the Indian press reported
last Friday that Desai will travel on 10 to 21 June to
the USSR, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia. While
in Yugoslavia, Desai will probably plan a strategy with
President Tito for the Nonaligned summit at Havana in
September. Desai, who visited the USSR in the fall of
1977, presumably will further exchange views on matters
discussed when Soviet Premier Kosygin visited India two
months ago.
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President Kaunda yesterday lifted the widespread
nightly curfew imposed 16 April, three days after a Rho-
desian commando raid into Lusaka destroyed Joshua Nkomo's
house and damaged buildings used by his Zimbabwe African
People's Union. There were no significant Rhodesian raids
on guerrilla targets in Zambia while the curfew was in
effect, but Kaunda indicated he believed that further
such activity could well occur.
Comment: The curfew had ZittZe military value, but
it added to existing friction between ZAPU and Zambian
defense forces and increased popular resentment of the
guerrillas.
Burundi
The US Embassy in Bujumbura reports that considerable
tension has built up there over rumors of an impending
clash between the ruling, but minority Tutsis and the
majority Hutus, nearly 100,000 of whom were massacred by
the Tutsis seven years ago. Because Burundi did not
openly back Tanzania in its dispute with deposed Ugandan
leader Amin, President Nyerere is rumored to be on the
verge of arming and organizing the Hutus in Tanzania for
a push into Burundi following the pattern of his use of
Ugandan exiles. The Embassy comments that rumor-monger-
ing by the bourgeoisie in Bujumbura is common and has
been fed by speculation that the government is stockpil-
ing petroleum to meet a security crisis.
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