DECLINE IN SOVIET MEAT SUPPLIES INDICATED BY DATA ON MEAT SALES, PRICES, AND PRODUCTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001000270002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2002
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: May 12, 1961
• Content Type: BRIEF

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CIA/RR CB-61-27
Copy No.
12 May 1961
SC// L)lC /j
CURRENT SUPPORT BRIEF
DECLINE IN SOVIET MEAT SUPPLIES INDICATED BY DATA ON
MEAT SALES, PRICES, AND PRODUCTION
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USG, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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DECLINE IN SOVIET MEAT SUPPLIES INDICATED BY DATA ON
> >
State meat production and retail sales of meat products in
Soviet state stores in 1960 increased sharply over the 1959 levels.
For the large part these increases were concentrated in the first
three quarters of 1960 and production and sales in the fourth
quarter of 1960 were only slightly above those in the correspond-
ing period of 1959. Total meat production in 1960 was about two
percent below the 1959 record high, with all of the decline occuring
in the private sector. State production of meat in the first quar-
ter of 1961 is reported to have declined by 13 percent in comparison
with production in the corresponding period of 1960. This implies
that supplies of meat products in state stores in the first quarter
of 1961 probably fell below such supplies in the first quarter of
1960. At this time feed supplies are greater than last year, and
there is no reason to think that total meat production will decline
in 1961.
The rise of disposable incomes of consumers during 1960, par-
ticularly those of lower income groups, together with the.apparent
failure of meat supplies in state stores and on the collective mar-
kets to show a significant increase, apparently has generated in-
flationary pressures which have resulted in rising meat prices in
collective farm markets. Meat prices in Moscow collective farm mar-
kets showed substantial increases over the previous year during the
second and fourth quarters of 1960.
Indexes of Quarterly Beef, Veal, and Pork Prices in
Moscow* Collective Farm markets**
Quarter
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
First
100
101
95
102
107
Second
100
104
97
101
113
Third
100
101
92
100
105
Fourth
100
106
104
99
116
* Moscow prices are only an imperfect indicator of the trend of
collective farm market prices in other cities.
The indexes were constructed by weighting by annual quantities
of beef, veal, and pork sold in the collective farm markets of
251 cities in 1955. 2/
These increases in collective farm market meat prices, which were
particularly sharp during the fourth quarter, appear to reflect both
the failure of state production of meat to expand in the fourth quar-
ter of 1960 and a decline in private meat production during the year.
No collective farm market prices are available yet for the first quar-
ter of 1961, but reported increases of queues for meat in state stores
also may indicate a decline in state store supplies of meat during the
first quarter of 1961 in comparison with the previous year. 3/
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Effect on the Consumer
The implied decline in meat supplies during late::1960 and-early
1961 will reduce meat consumption and raise the cost of living of the
average Soviet citizen but probably will not have a noticeable effect
.on his total food consumption in.terms of calories. By retarding the
growth of the proportion of calories obtained from animal products,
however, reduced meat consumption will slow the rate of improvement
in the diet. Such an improvement can be expected normally in the USSR
through increased purchases by consumers of higher priced foods such
as meat as disposable incomes, particularly among lower income groups,
increase. In addition, a decline in meat supplies should make clear
to the Soviet citizen how remote the prospects are for achievement of
Khrushchev's goal of overtaking the US in consumption of meat products
per capita.
Meat Sales in 1959-60
Retail sales of meat products in state stores for the full year
1960 registered a 13 percent increase over sales in. 195.9. Most of
this increase, however, was attained in the first three quarters of
the year when sales increased almost 20 percent over the.correspond-
ing period in 1959. Sales in the fourth quarter were only 2 percent
above those in the fourth quarter of 19.59.
Retail Sales of Meat and Sausage Products*
illion Rubles , ew Prices
1959, full year 4.23 4/
first three quarters 2.72 5/
fourth quarter 1.51 6/
1960 full year 4.78 7/
first three quarters 3.25 8/
fourth quarter 1.53 9/
* In comparing increases in retail sales of meat with increases in
production, it should be noted that the increase in sales measured
in value will overstate the increase in sales measured in tons.
This overstatement arises because the measurement in values gives
greater weight to high cost products which are increasing in pro-
portion to total sales.
** Because no changes in meat prices were announced during 1959 and
1960, it is assumed that increases in meat sales in current prices
are.equivalent to increases in meat sales in constant prices.
Meat Production in 1959-61
The failure of fourth quarter retail sales of meat products to
show a significant increase over sales in the corresponding period of
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1959 appears to be the result of the declining state production of
meat products. Although showing a five percent increase for the full
year 1960 over 1959, state meat production declined in the fourth
quarter in relation to production.in the corresponding period of 1959.
State Production of Meat Products
1, 0 MT)
1959, full year
first three quarters
fourth quarter
1960 full year
first three quarters
fourth quarter
in 1959 and 196.0
4 , 228 10/
2,230 11/
1,998 12/
4,425 13/
2,500 14/
1,925 15/
The decline in private production of meat in 1960 is implied by
a comparison of total production of meat which includes collective
farm and private production, with state production of meat. Whereas
.state production increased, total meat production declined during
1960., 16/
State meat production in the first quarter of 1961 amounted to
only 87 percent of production in the corresponding period of 1960. 17/
Because meat inventories are kept at low levels because of the lack of
refrigerated storage facilities, and because such inventories as were
maintained appear to have been drawn. down sharply in 1960, this decline
in production of meat can be expected to be translated immediately into
lowered meat supplies in state stores. 18/
At least part of the decline in state meat production in the first
quarter of 1961 is due to the abnormally high state meat production in
the first quarter of 1960 (which increased 36 percent over the corre-
sponding period of 1959) and therefore does not necessarily indicate
that state production during the full year 1961 will fall below produc-
tion in 1960.
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