DEMOBILIZATIONS AND THE GROWTH OF CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001100070002-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 28, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: July 26, 1961
• Content Type: BRIEF

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CURRENT SUPPORT BRIEF
DEMOBILIZATIONS AND.THE GROWTH OF CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT IN THE USSR
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This report represents the immediate views of the
originating intelligence components of the Office
of Research and Reports. Comments are solicited.
This document contains information affecting the national defense of
the United States, within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18
USC, Sections 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which
in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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DEMOBILIZATIONS AND THE GROWTH OF CIVILIAN
EMPLOYMENT IN TffE_ USSR
The suspension of demobilizations in the USSR announced by
Khrushchev on 9 July 1/ halted a windfall of labor which had been
.a major factor in the rapid expansion of the civilian labor force
during 1955-60--years when the low birth rates of World War IX might
otherwise have retarded the growth of civilian employment. An even
greater number of extra workers, however, was obtained during?those
years by inducing a larger percentage of housewives and teenagers
to take full-time jobs. The failure to demobilize an additional
600,000 men in 1961 probably will result in intensified efforts to
recruit even more of these non-working elements into the labor force
during 1961-65.
The demobilization plan announced in January 1960 called for a
reduction of Soviet armed manpower from 3,623,000 to 2,423,000 in 1960
and .1961.. It is believed that the reductions have been about half
completed.
Trends in Population and Employment, 1950-60
The population 14 years of age and over in the'USSR increased
by 13.9 million between 1950 and 1955, while civilian. employment
increased by only 6.0 million. During the following five-year period,
however, the population increased by only 4.4 million, while civilian
employment increased by 11.3 million. The.slow growth of civilian'
employment early in the decade, despite the rapid population growth,
resulted from (1) an expansion in high school enrollment, (2) the
buildup in the armed forces, and (3) a decline in the proportion of
women holding jobs, All of these trends were reversed after ].955,
as civilian labor force participation rates increased sharply. The
proportion of men 14 years of age and over in the civilian labor
force, which had declined from 72 percent in 1950 to 70 percent in
1955, rose to 78 percent in 1960. Similarly, the proportion of women
in the labor force declined from 64 percent in 1950 to 62 percent in
1955, but rose to 66 percent in 1960.
These sharp increases in participation rates after 1955 resulted
from the transfer of demobilized servicemen into the civilian labor
force and frcm.the employment of greater percentages of housewives
and teenagers. Of the 11.3 million increase in civilian employment
between 1955 and 1960, about 3.1 million resulted from population
growth, 2.5 million from demobilizations, and the remaining 5.7
million from the higher participation rates of adult women and, teen-
agers. To make it easier for housewives to take jobs during those
years, the government. increased the number of nurseries and intro-
duced the "extended.-day" system into many elementary schools. The
number of teenagers available for jobs increased as high school
graduations rose sharply while admissions to colleges remained, vir-
tually unchanged. At the same time, the total enrollment in high
schools declined even more rapidly than the population of high school
age, which in those years was influenced by the low birth rates of
World War Il. Finally, a larger proportion of the admissions to
tekhnikums and VUZes consisted of persons who continued to work full
time while studying at evening or cori.:espondFence schools.
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Prospects for 1961-65
If participati.on.rates remain at 1960 levels, civilian employ-
ment will increase by only 1,.5 million in 1961 .and 1962, .1.8 million
in 1963,.and.2..1 million in 1.964 and 1965. These amounts are con-
siderably below the average annual increase in civilian employment
between 1955 and 1.960--2..3 million. The originally planned demobili-
zation of about 600,000 men during 1.961 would have contributed most
of the additional workers needed this year.to match the employment
increases of. earlier years. With demobilizations suspended, the USSR
will have to obtain all of the extra workers elsewhere if the incre-
ments to civilian employment.are not to drop sharply.
Despite the sharp increase in the proportion of the population
employed since 1955, the USSR apparently is confident that labor re-
serves still exist and. can be drawn upon if necessary to meet plan
goals. Some of the results of the 1959 census of :population, shown
in Table .1, indicate the n.ature.of.suchreserves. The number of
persons in-the key working ages without job attachments in January
1959 was 22.0 million, of which 12.8 million were neither full-time
students nor invalids. The 7 million mothers of children under 14
are the prime targets of the continuing drive to induce more house.-
wives into the labor force by providing more child-care facilities.
The remaining 1.4 million men and 4.4 million. women who were not
working are among the targets of the latest crop of anti.-parasite
laws, which in the RSFSR provide for compulsory labor in exile for
persons convicted of employment in illegal activities, such as black-
marketing and private enterprise, as well as for those who refuse
"socially useful" labor. 2/ .The.5.8 million students over. 16 years
of age, classified as part of the non-working population, also repre-
sent a potential source of extra workers. Although the Seven-Year
Plan calls for an increase in high school enrollment by 1.965, enroll-
ment actually declined between 1958 and 1960, despite an increasing
population of high school age. Presumably the planned expansion in
enrollment could be delayed further until the need for labor is less
acute. A resolution passed by the USSR Council of Ministers in June
1961 ordered the union republics to develop. detailed plans for the
training of students in the newly-formed labor-polytechn.i.cal high
schools and to integrate these plans with the over-all economic
plans..3/ The resolution thus implies that a quota system now may
be used in admitting students to the high schools, similar to that
long used in the te.knikums and higher educational institutions.
According to the 1961 mid-year economic report, nonagricultural
employment increased by 3.2 million between mid-1960 and mid-1961. 4/
Although some decline in farm employment may have offset this gain,
total civilian employment apparently increased faster than expected
from population growth alone. At least until mid-1961, therefore,
the Soviet civilian labor force was still increasing rapidly and
participation rates had risen even more rapidly.
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Employment Status of Persons
in the Principal or ing.Ages
(Men, 16-59 and Women, 1
1 January 1.959 a/
l lions
Millions
Total Population in Principal Working Ages 119.8
Employed Persons in these Ages 97.8
In. State Establishments or Collective Farms 89.1
In Private Farm Economy 5.1
In Armed Forces 3..6
Not Employed 22.0
Full-Time Students 5.8
Invalids 3.3
Able-Bodied Men, 16-59 1.4
Able-Bodied Women, 16-54 11.4
With Children 0-6 Years 5.1
With Children 7-13 Years 1.9
With Children over 13, or Childless 4.4
a. 47
Status Not Reported .0.1
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Analyst:
.Coord:
Sources:
1..
2. Pravda, 5 May 61., U.
3. ru , S ,Jun 61. U.
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4. Sotsialisticheskiy Trud, No. 2,,' 1961, pp. 13-15. U.
STATSPEC
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