SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPMENT OF SIBERIAN POWER FACILITIES OVERDUE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A001900170001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 29, 1999
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 1, 1964
• Content Type: BRIEF

,-?r.. Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
Current Support Brief
SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SIBERIAN POWER FACILITIES OVERDUE
CIA/RR CB 64-22
March 1964
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
WARNING
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 0
- 7T: CIA-RDP79TO1003A001900170001-2
C- 0K
S-
SLOWDOWN IN DEVELOPMENT
OF SIBERIAN POWER FACILITIES OVERDUE
The USSR recently announced completion of the first section of the
Bratsk Hydroelectric Powerplant (GES) in Irkutskaya Oblast. With an
installed generating capacity of 3, 600 megawatts (mw), the plant is
900 mw s,4ort of the 4, 500 mw called for in the final design. A subse-
quent announcement revealed that the priority for work on the Ust' -
Ilimsk GES, which is intended to supply power for the Bratsk Aluninum
Plant now under construction, is being reexamined by Gosplan. These
announcements are a reaction to a surplus of power that has been grow-
ing steadily in the area for 3 years and now amounts to about 2, 000 mw.
It may be that the belated reassessment resulted from a general review
of investment schedules occasioned by need for investment in priority
industries, such as the chemical industry. It is doubtful, however, that
construction of additional power-generating capacity in the area would
have been delayed if the additional capacity were genuinely needed. The
economies that can be achieved during the next few years by such delays
are not large. Postponing installation of four generating units (each with
a capacity of 225 mw) at the Bratsk GES will result in an immediate sav-
ing of only about 20 million rubles. * Postponing construction of the Ust'-
Ilimsk GES might save, in the course of the next 3 years, an additional
sum of 150 million rubles.
Postponing the installation of some generating equipment in the
Bratsk GES will have no significant effect on production by this plant
in the next few years. This powerplant has been successively planned
for several levels of capacity. Originally it was to have had a capacity
of 3, 200 mw. Later the 16 proposed 200-mw units were rerated at
225 mw, and the capacity was increased to 3, 600 mw. Subsequently,
plans were made to increase capacity to 4, 500 mw by installing four
more units that would provide a useful reserve for peak load operation
of the future integrated Siberian power network. Whatever the planned
generating capacity, however, the available water supply is sufficient
* Ruble values in this publication are given in new rubles established
by the Soviet currency reform of 1 January 1961. A nominal rate of
exchange based on the gold content of the respective currencies is
0. 90 ruble to US $1. This rate should not be interpreted as an esti-
mate of the equivalent dollar value of similar US goods or services.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CI R~P79T01003AO01900170001-2
R-E-T
only to support an annual production of about 22 billion kilowatt-hours
(kwh), an amount that could be produced with 2, 600 mw of generating
capacity if it were operated continuously. Because there are fluctu-
ations in the volume of river flow and because hydroelectric capacity
provides cheap peak load power, the normal operating load would be
about 2, 000 mw, with peak loads of 3, 000 to 3, 600 mw.
The present installed capacity of 3, 600 mw in 16 hydrogenerators
is more than enough to cover expected loads for several years. Recent
statements indicate that production during 1964-65 will be about 11 bil-
lion to 12 billion kwh per year and that the reservoir was only about
one-third full at the end of 1963. To fill the reservoir completely
while producing 11 billion to 12 billion kwh of electricity annually will
require at least another 2-1/2 years. Therefore, the full rated pro-
duction of 22 billion kwh per year is not likely before 1967.
The 16th turbine, produced by the Leningrad Turbine Plant in April
1963, reportedly was the last machine that will be produced for Bratsk
until some unspecified date. 2/ The remaining four generating units
can be installed readily whenever they are required. It is not likely
that work on structures for the powerplant will be stopped, because
the project is so near to completion and construction crews and equip-
ment are already assembled. Only about 100, 000 cubic meters of the
required 4. 8 million cubic meters of concrete remain to be poured. 3/
Soviet statements indicate that work on the powerhouse and clearing of
the reservoir still are in progress. Most of the investment already has
7;g The total volume of the reservoir for the Bratsk GES is 179 billion
cubic meters, and the average annual river flow is 92 billion cubic
meters. The average annual river flow may be equated with production
of 22 billion kwh when the optimum water level reaches about 100 meters.
At the end of 1963 the level of water had reached 80 meters, and the
volume of the reservoir was 67 billion cubic meters. 1/ Because pro-
duction of power in a hydroelectric powerplant is a function of water
flow and pressure (the height of the water), production of 11 billion to
12 billion. kwh annually at an operating level of less than 100 meters
will require the passage of somewhat more water per kilowatt-hour
produced. If production for the next 3 years averages 11 billion to
12 billion kwh, the amount of water passed through the plant each year
will amount to slightly more than 50 billion cubic meters, and the volume
stored will amount to approximately 40 billion cubic meters. At that
rate the reservoir would be full late in 1966. Alternatively, annual pro-
duction of power could be increased and the rate of filling of the reservoir
decreased, or vice versa.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
been made in this powerplant, and deferring its completion would repre-
sent at best a saving of perhaps 10 percent, or 50 million to 70 million
rubles, of which about 20 million rubles can be attributed to the cost of
the last four generating units.
2. Ust'-Ilimsk GES
A Soviet press release early in January indicated a possibility that
construction of the Ust'-Ilimsk GES (on the Angara River about 250 kilo-
meters downstream from Bratsk) might be postponed. 4/ Later in the
month an official of Gosplan stated that preparatory work at the site
was continuing, but he acknowledged that the project was being restudied
to decide whether the Ust'-Ilimsk GES or the Sayan GES in Krasnoyarskiy
Kray should be built first. 5/ The next Five Year Plan calls for con-
struction on both of these projects.
The target date for initial operation of the Us t' -Ilimsk GES was
1969-70, but work at the powerplant site is barely underway. High-
tension lines, a highway, and a railroad to serve the project are under
construction but are not yet finished. 6/
The Ust'-Ilimsk GES is to be almost identical in capacity and output
to the Bratsk GES, and it has been designed in a manner that will per-
mit use of the same construction techniques and the same equipment
employed in the construction of the Bratsk GES. Transfer of construc-
tion workers from Bratsk to Ust' -Ilimsk was to take place as work
ended on the Bratsk project. Postponing construction of the Ust'-
Ilimsk project may release a labor force roughly equivalent to the
50, 000 construction workers employed at Bratsk. Some construction
equipment also could be transferred, but much of it is specialized and
would. be of little use except in construction of hydroelectric powerplants.
The project ultimately will require an investment of about 470 million
to 500 million rubles, of which 60 to 65 percent probably would be in-
vested in the last 3 or 4 years of construction.
The question of which of the two powerplants to build first -- the
Sayan GES or the Ust'-Ilimsk GES -- depends on the development of
consumers to utilize the output of the two plants. The Ust'-Ilimsk
GES will be a prime source of power for the Bratsk Aluminum Plant.
The press release in January which indicated possible postponement
of the Ust'-Ilimsk GES suggested that plans for the aluminum plant also
were undergoing review and that work on the project might be slowed.
Approved For Releagel1060k 7T: CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
The economic plan for 1964-65, however, called for no decrease in the
rate of construction. 7/ If the aluminum plant is to begin operation on
schedule -- 4 or 5 years before initial operation of the Ust'-Ilimsk GES
the Bratsk GES will have to supply the required power for the first few
years. The aluminum plant will consume some 16 billion kwh annually
when completed, 8/ and the Ust'-Ilimsk GES will be needed by the time
the aluminum plant reaches about one-half of its planned capacity. At
present, there appears to be no pressing need to build the Sayan GES
unless it is to supply power to industry in the nearby Kuzbas, where
power now is generated in high-cost thermal electric powerplants.
3. Surplus Power
Current reexamination or alternation of plans for the development
of generating capacity in Siberia stems from the fact that capacity has
grown faster than consumers to utilize it. A surplus of electric power
began to develop in the Irkutsk-Bratsk district in the fall of 1961, 9/
about 1 month before initial operation of the Bratsk GES. As early as
January 1961, Khrushchev stated that there would be no local consumers
to use the power generated at Bratsk 10/ and in April 1963 he belabored
the point again. 11 / In May 1963, P. P.S. Neporozhniy, Chairman of the
State Committee for Power and Electrification, announced a surplus of
1, 000 mw of generating capacity in the Irkutsk-Bratsk district. 12/ The
director of the Bratsk GES complained in October 1963 that planned local
consumers of power from Bratsk, particularly the aluminum plant, were
only in the preparatory stages of construction and that erection of lines
to transmit power away from the area was far behind schedule. 13/ In
spite of the growing surplus of power at Bratsk, additional generating
capacity was being installed in thermal electric powerplants of the
Irkutsk Power System, sufficient apparently to match expanding demands
for power in the industrial district along the Trans-Siberian Railroad.
From May, when the 1, 000-mw surplus was announced, to the end of
1963, 1, 350 additional mw of capacity were installed in the Bratsk GES,
increasing the surplus to at least 2, 000 mw, an amount almost equal
to all capacity now installed in the Irkutsk Power System, excluding
the Bratsk GES.
The cause of this gross imbalance between generating capacity and
consumers is open to speculation. The impending surplus certainly was
known to Soviet planners as long as 3 years ago. Nevertheless, there
seemed to be some sense of urgency not only about completing the Bratsk
project but also about building additional thermal electric powerplants.
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : b1 -kog7~s70T1003A001900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
The explanation of these developments may lie, at least partly, in the
magnitude of the Bratsk undertaking and in an installation of comparable
magnitude, the Angarsk Gaseous Diffusion Plant. Situated in a sparsely
settled region where support facilities were virtually nonexistent, the
Bratsk project was kept on schedule at the expense of other nearby
industrial sites that were planned originally for simultaneous develop-
ment. 14/ Similarly, building the gaseous diffusion plant at Angarsk
probably retarded general industrial construction along the Trans-
Siberian Railroad and at the same time created a great demand for
electric power to satisfy the nuclear materials industry. Indeed, it
appears to be possible that the presence of the gaseous diffusion com-
plex alone may have stimulated planners to overestimate actual power
needs greatly, particularly if they could not foresee that construction
of other industry would fall far behind plan schedules.
Whatever the actual situation, postponement of the Ust'-Ilimsk
project and of the installation of the last four generating units at the
Bratsk GES would be a propitious, although belated, move.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
S-E-C-R-E-T
1. Ekonomicheskaya gazeta, 25 Jan 64, p. 42-43. U.
2. FBIS. Economic Abstract Card, 63 L2719, 11 Apr 63.
OFF USE.
25X1A
p. 2. OFF USE.
3. Sovetskaya Rossiya, 16 Jan 64, p. I. U.
4. Komsomol,skaya pravda, 4 Jan 64. U.
5. Ibid., 28 Jan 64. U.
6. Gt Brit, BBC. Summary of World Broadcasts, weekly supple-
ment no 248, Pt I, USSR, 24 Jan 64, p. B-13. U.
Stroitel'naya gazeta, 30 Aug 63, p. 1. U.
Izvestiya, 31 Oct 63. U.
7. Izvestiya, 17 Dec 63, p. 4. U.
25X1 A 8. C.
9. Ekonomicheskaya gazeta, 16 Oct 61, p. 38. U.
10. FBIS. Daily Report (USSR and East Europe), no 2, supplement,
24 Jan 61, p. 12. OFF USE.
11. FBIS. Daily Report (USSR and East Europe), no 82, 26 Apr 63,
p. cc-40. OFF USE.
12. Izvestiya, 25 May 63, p. 6. U.
13. Stroitel'naya gazeta, 25 Sep 63. U.
14. Izvestiya, 2 Dec 60, p. 2. U.
Ibid., 24 Feb 61. U.
Ibid., 24 Aug 61, p. 3. U.
25X1A
Analyst:
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Approved For Release 8% 7 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
 Analyst: nI P-r
(Project 26. 5116) 25X1A
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
Control Section
Series Number CIA RR CB 64-22
Date of Document March 164
Recipient
33 AD/RR--
34 __ DAD RR
170?_- 205 __ _ St P C
170
171
172
173 - 176
_.
.....
177
178
179 181
182
.183
184
185
186
187
Classification
StCRET
GROUP 1 .
Excluded from automatic
dowegrading and
Number of Copies 230
Returned
Y ApprovecTor release 2000/04/17: CIA-RDP79TOZ00 49.00 7.00.01.-2
 I Approved For Releas
SUBJECT: Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 64-ZZ, Slowdoi
in Development of Siberian Power Facilities Overdue --- March 1964
(Secret)
Copy Noe Recipient
1 O/DDI, Room 7E32, Hdqtrs,
2-3 NIC
4 - 12 OCI Internal
13- 15 ONE
16 - 21 St/CS/RR
22 O/DDI - Chester Cooper
23 - 31 NSA/C312
32 NSAL
33 - 230 ORR Distribution, St/A/Document Support Section,
Room GH0915, Hdgtrso (sent direct to St/A/DSS, 25
Distributed by OCR)
4/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A001900170001-2
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
tleclx3citlcation
Mar 64)
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A001900170001-2
 RU t , Slowdown in
xt/A/D,SS Distribution of Current Support Brief Noa 64-22
Dp.velopmeniAi*gd d. no `MeWates M 04N-A:r M MT-2
Copy No.
3c
J&
35
36
37-41
4247
48-53
54
55 - 59
60 65
66
67 - 75
76 - 77
78 - 79
so
81-86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102 - 104
105
106 - 107
108
12 W*- 150
155 - 166
167 - 168
169
170 - Z05
206 - 230
109
Recipient
AW&K
DARK
Ch/E
St/PR
D/A (1 each branch)
D/MS (1 each branch)
D/R (1 each branch) .
Chief, Military-Economic Research Area
Programs Division (1 each branch)
Forces Division (1 each branch)
Plans and Support Staff
D/I (1 each branch)
D/GG
D/GC
D/GC/X
RID/AN, Unit 4, Room 1B4004, Hq.
St/P/A 25X1A
St/FM
Analyst/B ranch
GR/CR
BR/CR
R/EP)
FIB/SR/CR, Room 1G27, Hq.
Library/CR
IPI/CR
'AMR, A-18
AD/OO
Chief, FDD
CD/OO
OCI/RP/PS, Room 7G15, Hqo
DDI/CGS, Room 7F35, Hq.
DDI/CGS/HR, Room 3F30, Hqo
OSI
OBI
OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, Broyhill Bldg. (1 - OTR/SIC)
NPIC/CSD/REF, Room 1S518, Bldg. 213
Defense Intelligence Agency, DIASA-Z, Room 2D233, Pentagon
USIA, Warren Phelps, IRR/D, Room 701, Walker Johnson
Building, 1734 New York Avenue, N. W.
State, INR Communications Center, Room 7818, State Dept. Bldg.
Dr. Neilson Debevoise, NSC, Room 365, Executive Office Building
Frank M. Charrette, Agency for International Development, Chief,
Statistics and Reports Division, Room 802, State Annex No. 1
St/P/C, Room 4F41, Hq. (held in St/P/C, 25 Mar 64).
Records Center
Commandant Nat'l. War College, Ft. Leslie McNair, Attn: Classified
Records Section, Rm. 26, Nat'l. War College Bldg., Wash. 25, D. C.
Asst. Secretary of Defense, ISA, Room 4D825, Pentagon
Approved For Release 0t, d8B sR$
fqff dowegmIng and
darlikedflnetlml
P79101003A001900170001-2
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
6 April 1964
MEKoe NDt i FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR
FROM : Chief, Publications Staff, CtR
SUBJECT : Transmittal of Material
it is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 64-22, Slowdown
in Development of Siberian Power Facilities Overdue, March 1964, Secret, be
forwarded as follows:
State, INR Oasununications Center,
Room 781$, State Dept. Bldg.
For E nbassies in Moscow, Bonn, Frankfurt,
Geneva, London, & Tokyo
25X1A
Attachments:
Copies #196 - #201 of GB 64-22
9ETED
The dis,amir tron rcquestpd by
this memorandum has been completid/
BY;
Pate= -
dottagrading and
IT .
Approved For Release 104 ?"~ r r 79T01003AO01900170001-2
 S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO01900170001-2
ORR PUBLICATIONS CONTROL PROCESSING SHEET
Subject
4.nalyst and Branch
25X1A
Unedited draft
Edited draft
Dther
ao Text check
ba Source check
co Releasable to:
25X1 C
-1 sent to AD/RR
`2 sent to DDI
#3 checked for release
OL/PSD notified to Disseminate
Date Initials
Remarks 25X1 C
25X1 C
Group 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
cleclassificatiol-'
Approved For Release 2000/01/17 t CIA-RDP79T01003AO01900170001-2
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A001900170001-2
roject No. 26. 5116 R :cport Series CIA/RR CB 64-22
314.le Slowdown in Development of Siberian Power Facilities Overdue
(Secret) 25X1A
sponaible Analyst and Branch
R/EP
F---rhn, Germany
Bucharest, Romania
Budapest, Hungary
-Mosc?OW, USSR
i:. rague:, Czechoslovakia
34#iar f3uigaria
Warsaw, Poland
# elgrade, Yugoslavia
tlern, Switzerland
1:ionn, Germany
it rus s ails. Belgium
flupenhagen. Denmark
fVlankfu..rt. Germany
;.neva.. Switzerland.
Ielsink ,. Finland
he I-Lague, Netherlands
t . ,sbon , Portugal
-r" radon? England
1,uace nbourg, Luxembourg
V'x.a.drid, Spain
031o. Norway
P'aris0, France
Italy
" luck olrn. Sweden
Y'i.enn.a:: Austria.
Ilington, New Zealand
Janila, Philippines
e 3?ra? Australia
Bangkok, Thailand
Djakarta, Indonesia
Hong Kong
Rangoon Burma
Kuala Lumpur, Malaya
Saigon, Vietnam
Seoul, Korea
Singapore, British NIALfty .
Taipei? Formosa
t,%t'okyo, Japan
Vientiane, Laos
Phnom Penh,. Cambodia.
Colombo, Ceylon
Ankara, Turkey
Athens, Greece
Cairo, Egypt
Damascus, Syria
Kabul, Afghani star
Karachi? Pakistan
New Delhi, India
Nicosia, Cyprus
Tehran, Iran
Baghdad, Iraq
Tel Aviv, Israel
Beirut, Lebanon
Amman, Jordon
Jidda, Saudi Arabia
Ottawa, C
~pd tro autamat1t
Approved For Rele
WORD ~0/0 V1 -`~retr WART
daclrAsitIUtIOn
ARA
Mexico
Guatemala
Panama
Brazillia, Brazil
Buenos Aires, Argentina
Bogota, Colombia.
Santiago, Chile
La Paz, Bolivia
Montevideo, Uruguay
Caracas Venezuela
Africa
Yaonde, Carsaroin
Leopoldville, Congo
Addis Ababa. Ethopia
Accra,, Ghana
Abidjan, Ivory Coast
Nairobi, Kenya
Monrovia, Liberia
Tr:ipoli, Libya
Rabat, Morocco
Lagos, Nigeria
Mogadiscio, So ial
Khartoum, Sudan
Tunis, Tunisia
.Pretoria, South Africa
Algiers, Algeria
Cotonou, Dahomey
Dakar, Senegal
Ha.anako,- Mali
P79101003A001900170001-2