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December 9, 2016
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March 13, 2001
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January 1, 1965
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Approved For Release 2001/04/17;x: W19T01003A002200020001-4 POOR AUTUMN HARVEST IN COMMUNIST CHINA REDUCES DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Office of Research and Reports SECRET GROUP I Excluded from automatic downgrading and daclossiftcation Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003A002200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 S-E-C-R-E-T POOR . AUTUMN HARVEST IN COMMUNIST CHINA REDUCES DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES In a speech to the National Peoples Congress on 21 December, Chou En-lai claimed that production of grain, cotton, and a number of other agricultural commodities in 1964 will all surpass the levels attained in 1957. This claim, however, is not borne out by agricul- tural developments since 1957 and particularly by events in 1964. Production of grain and cotton in 1957 was claimed, officially to be 185 million and 1. 6 million tons, * respectively, but China has failed to reach this level of output again through 1964 except for the bumper crop year of 1958 (see Table 1). According to official statements, the total cultivated area of China is now nearly 5 percent less than in 1957. A detailed compilation of provincial acreage claims for 1964 reveals a decline of 8 percent in the sown area of grain and a decline of 22 percent for cotton below the level of 1957. With the current level of inputs and the recent adverse weather conditions, yields per hectare are not be- lieved to have increased sufficiently to offset these declines in acreage. Furthermore, abnormally high losses of grain in storage are anticipated because the above-normal rainfall has clearly resulted in the storage of wet grain. Unwarranted optimistic remarks on economic prospects are endemic with the Chinese Communist leadership, and outright falsifica- tion of agricultural statistics (as in 1958 and 1959) can be unequivocally established. Estimated production of grain in 1964 for the second successive year is below the 180 million tons believed to have been harvested in 1962. The significance of the decline in production of grain in 1964 to an estimated 170 million tons is enhanced by the growth of population. Including retained imports of 6. 6 million tons, availability of grain per capita has declined by roughly 15 percent from the level of 1957. These record imports, largely a consequence of the lackluster agricultural performance, have been made at a cost of more than $420 million (see Table 2). This total is to be compared with average annual imports of about 5. 3 million tons for the period 1961 through 1963 at an average annual cost of about $300 million. In contrast, the value of machinery and equipment imported in 1964 was only about $150 million. The de- pressing impact of food imports on Peiping's available foreign exchange and therefore on China's industrial development is more than a short- term difficulty. The failure of the Chinese leaders to accord agriculture Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this publication. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 S-E-C-R-E-T a sufficient priority to raise production of grain to more adequate levels not only compounds the Malthusian problem but also impedes any significant modernization and growth of industry. Although production of rice increased in 1964, it is believed that this gain was more than offset by a significant decline in output of miscellaneous grains (corn, barley, kaoliang, and millet), which nor- mally account for almost 30 percent of China's total production of grain, and by a slight reduction in production of wheat. Production of autumn-harvested miscellaneous grains probably was the lowest in recent years. The acreage of these grains was reduced sharply in most areas by prolonged rainfall throughout the normal. planting season. Heavy rainfall over most of the important producing areas, and par- ticularly in North China, from late August through 20 September and throughout most of October reportedly delayed harvesting and caused very serious losses. In many areas the grain harvested was too wet for storage. The excessive rainfall in these areas also delayed and in some areas prevented the planting of crops sown in the fall, such as wheat, and may seriously affect the outcome of the spring harvest in 1965. 2. Short Supply in Parts of North China A tight food situation is likely to occur in some parts of the country during the winter and spring of 1964/65, particularly in those parts of North China that were most affected by abnormally heavy rainfall. In South China, on the other hand, the favorable late harvest should pro- vide ample supplies of food to maintain consumption during the winter and spring at about the same favorable level attained during the iden- tical period in 1963/64. Certain government measures for mitigating food shortages in the affected areas have been invoked. These measures include increased procurement of grain from areas with good harvests and continued large-scale imports of grain from the West. Contracts have already been negotiated for the delivery of 1. 8 million tons of grain in the first half of 1965, with negotiations reportedly continuing for delivery of additional large quantities. Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA- P79f0100 002200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 S-EE-C-R-E-T 3. Gains in Meat, Fruit, and Vegetables Although food consumption is below the level o.f 1957, which was considered adequate for Chinese requirements, it is well above that of 1960/61, when malnutrition was widespread. For the most part, this improvement since. 1960/61 is. attributed tolarge-scale imports of grain from the West and to a significant increase in the production of subsidiary foods (pork; poultry, fruits, and- vegetables) obtained- primarily from the private plots of the peasants. It is estimated that the share of subsidiary and other nongrain foods in-the daily caloric intake per capita has increased from only about 5 percent in the very poor year of 1960/61 to about 18 percent in 1964/65. These foods, together with grains, would provide an estimated caloric intake-per capita of about 2, 000 calories per day, in 1964/65 compared with about 2, 300 calories in 1957/58 (see Table 3)-. Although there will be seasonal variations in availability, vegetables, fruits, and meats-'will continue to provide a valuable supplement to the diet if there is no significant retreat from the regime's permissive attitude toward private plots and free markets. There is no evidence at this time that, the regime intends any marked shift back to the much more restrictive commune system. S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 S-E-C-R-E-T Communist China: Estimated Production of :Major Agricultural Commodities 1957-64 Commodity 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Total grain 185 a/ 200 165 160 165 180 175 170 b/ Rice 86 91 81 79 82 82 74 78 Wheat 24 27 26 22 17 23 23 22 Miscel- laneous grains c/ 53 45 37 37 41 46 52 44 Tubers 17 22 37 21 22 25 29 26 26 Ginned cotton 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 a. b. c. Official figure. Preliminary. Including corn, barley, kaoliang, and millet. d. Computed on a grain equivalent basis of 4 to 1. Communist China: Retained Imports of Grain by Quantity and Value a/ 1961-64 Year Thousand Metric Tons Million 2R I 1961 5,481 298 1962 5,004 303 1963 5,489 316 1964 b/ 6,605 423 a. Not including Chinese purchases for reexport to other destinations. b. Preliminary. Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-Fib ss 61PO0?k0b2200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 S-E-C-R-E-T Communist China: Estimated Daily Availability of Food Per Capita Selected Years, 1957/58 - 1964/65 Calories per Day Per Capita tion Year a/ Amount Consump 1957/58 2,300 1960/61 1,600 1961/62 1,800 1962/63 1,900 1963/64 2,000 000 2 1964/65 b/ , a. 1 July - 30 June. b. Preliminary. 25X1A ;!Analysts: ORR ORR S-E-C-R-E-T Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 VVIME Approved For Release 200'11174/17 : CIA RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T 03A002200020001-4 SECRET Analyst: ?t/ AU (Project 21. 5213A) Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS St/P/RR - Control Section Control Sheet GROUP i Excluded from owtomaific downgrading ad I declassification Series Number CIA/RR CB 65-2 Classification Date of Document January 1965 Number of Copies 290 Copy No. Recipient Hand carried to O/DDI RR DAPLRR via SA/RR 231 SA/RR .., , 232 O/DDI for O/DCI 233 25X1A LS/CR for Marion Larsen, 184..........,x.:, 185 186 ,1..87... _ .,19 0 192 193- 195 196 197 198 _ _..,n...,.. 199 200 202:......,_. ~.~ 204 205 206 - 208 - 210 /AG CA Staff /DDP St / P OCR 211 CGS/HR/Ops, 1G81, Hq. 212 229, 264 - 2,80, 289 Filed in St/P/C De t. of Agriculture R/AG for Eugene T. Olson, Agriculture 25X1A SECRET Date "-..---..-n.r..^.." - - -- 12Jan65 12 Jan 65 12 Jan 65 _5X1A 9TO1003A00 0002000 25X1A a z 12 2 I t- 25X1A 25X1A 25X1 C 25X1A 25X1A 25X1A Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001 /64ii y:4 3 -RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 12 January 1965 SUBJECT. Distribution of Current Support B Aut xn Harvest in Corn unist China Reduces Supplies ?-- January 1965SECRr: I Copy No. 18 19-20 21 - 29 3+0 32 28 1 - 286 287 288 0/101X, ROOM U32, Hdgtrs. NIC OCI Internal ONE NSA St/CS O/1)13 f No. 65-2, Poor 25X1A 25X1A Sent direct to St/AIDS for ORR Distribution (copies I - 17 were hand carried to the O/1?DI on 8 Jan 651 Distributed by OCR Excluded iron automatic dowaradin~ and d a C i A;~ 5! i 1 C i! i 3 0l4 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 Approved For Release 2001/ Recipient Poor, St/A/DS Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 65-2. ~ ut es R+c Autumn Harvest in Communist 4-=nA Copy No. 1X 35 36 37-42 43 - 48 49 - 54 55 56 - 60 61 - 66 67 68-76 77-78 79-80 81 82 - 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 - 103 104 -y 107 108 106 109 - 110 113 - 114 115 - 153 154 157 158 169 170 171 172 173 174 - 230 63 Ch/E St/PR D/A (l each branch) D/MS (1 each branch) D/ R (1 each branch) MRA D/P (1 each branch) P/F (1 each branch) St/PS D/I (1 each branch) D/GG D/GC D/GX/X RID/AN, Unit 4, Room 1B4004, Hq. St/P/A St/FM ~4'~r'~,xsrsrs~c,e GR/CR BR/CR FIB/SR/CR, Room 1G27, Hq. Library/CR IPI/CR. AD Chief, OCR/FDD s:CD/OO OCI/SA/R, Room 5G19, Hq. DDI/CGS, Room 7F35, Hq. DDI/CGS/HR, Room 1G81, Hq. OS:1 OBI DD/S T/SAINT OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, Broyhill --- 0--r-. n 1Cr119 . I !?.____ ~~ air National war College; Classified Kecoras oet.ai- , --- 25X1A 1000 Glebe (1 - OTR/SIC) slie McNair, Attn: Nat'l War College Bldg. Washington, D. C . Room 4D825, Pent Defense, Ass-i'stant Secretary of Defense Intelligence Agency ,DIAAQ9 3, ABldg., Arlin gton on Hall Station USIA, Warren Phelps, IRR/D, Room 812, Walker Johnson Buildia.- 1734 New York Avenue, N. W. Room 7818, State Dept. Bldg. State, Communications Center, Executive Office Bldg. Dr. Neilson, Debevoise, NSC, Room 365, Agency for International Development, Chief, Frank M.Charre~te, Statistics and Reports Division, ~t1P/~, A-204, ~~ State ~ ~ Annex $~ 10 St/P/C/RR, Room 4F41, Hq.?held Records Center Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA f X( *002200020001-4 ALJ. deefae:iflcaflOtl SECRET Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4 18 January 1965 M]4ORAND14 FCR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD,CR FRS : Chief, Publications Staff, ORR SUBJECT Transmittal of Material It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-2, Poor Autumn Harvest in Communist China Reduces Domestic Grain Supplies, January f9"65.. Secret, be forwarded as follows: State, INR Communications Center, Roam 7818, State Dept. Bldg. Suggested distribution for F ubassies in Bangkok, Hong Hong, Singapore, Taipei, and Tokyo 25X1A Attachments: Copies +2 ?3 - #227 of CB 65-2 cc: CGS/RB BY: 7 i9i5' Date: l /S Approved For Release 2001/04/1't ;1 P7d91101003A002200020001-4 SECRET Approved For Release 2001/0,Kl :3~ -RDP79T01003A002200020001-4 Project No. 21. 5213A Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-2 Title Poor Autumn Harvest in Communist China Reduces Domestic Grain Supplies (SECRET) Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG 25X1A RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS Far East ARA Germany Berlin 3angkok, Thailand Mexico , Romania Bucharest Djakarta, Indonesia Guatemala , Hungary est Buda .'Hong Kong Panama , p USSR Moscow Rangoon, Burma Brazillia, Brazil i , Czechoslovakia ue Pra Kuala Lumpur, Malaya na Buenos Aires, Argent i , g Bulgaria Sofia Saigon, Vietnam a Bogota, Colomb , Poland Warsaw Seoul, Korea Santiago, Chile , vSingapore, British Malaya La Paz, Bolivia e ro E ,,/Taipei, Formosa Montevideo, Uruguay l p u a Caracas, Venezue vTokyo, Japan Belgrade, Yugoslavia Vientiane, Laos Phnom Penh, Cambodia Bern, Switzerland Bonn, Germany Colombo, Ceylon Yaounde, Cameroun Belgium Brussels C , Denmark en enha Co Near East & South Asia ongo Leopoldville, i , g p a Addis Ababa, Ethop Germany Frankfurt , Switzerland Geneva Ankara, Turkey Accra, Ghana t C , Helsinki, Finland Athens, Greece oas Abidjan, Ivory Nairobi, Kenya Netherlands ue The Ha Cairo, Egypt i , g Portugal Lisbon Camascus, Syria a Monrovia, Liber , England London Kabul, Afghanistan Tripoli, Libya , Luxembourg Luxembourg Karachi, Pakistan Rabat, Morocco , Spain drid M New Delhi, India Lagos, Nigeria l , a Norway Oslo Nicosia, Cyprus Mogadiscio, Soma d , France Paris Tehran, Iran an Khartoum, Su i , Italy e Ro Baghdad, Iraq a Tunis, Tunis i Af , m Sweden Stockholm Tel Aviv, Israel r ca Pretoria, South i , Austria Vienna Beirut, Lebanon a Algiers, Alger , Amman, Jordon Cotonou, Dahomey Pacific Jidda, Saudi Arabia Dakar, Senegal Bamako, Mali Wellington, New Zealand Manila, Philippine s Canberra, Australia Ottawa, Canada Me lbour yjp? P 'A r~rYle4%~~elease 2001/04/17: CIA-P 8a& ~4~n3>t~t6irgr2i'00020001 -4 dor.?^arading and x* R 999 dne!a=;tieilna SECRET lied Approved For Re qnnjjbj ,1F4 Jn4 RECORD OF REVIEW OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURIANA BR ANC H STRUCTIONS :r SANITIZING IN SECURITY REVIEW Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification