POOR AUTUMN HARVEST IN COMMUNIST CHINA REDUCES DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 1, 1965
• Content Type: BRIEF

Approved For Release 2001/04/17;x: W19T01003A002200020001-4
POOR AUTUMN HARVEST IN COMMUNIST CHINA
REDUCES DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
Office of Research and Reports
SECRET
GROUP I
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
daclossiftcation
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003A002200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
This material contains information affecting
the National Defense of the United States
within the meaning of the espionage laws,
Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans-
mission or revelation of which in any manner
to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
POOR . AUTUMN HARVEST IN COMMUNIST CHINA
REDUCES DOMESTIC GRAIN SUPPLIES
In a speech to the National Peoples Congress on 21 December,
Chou En-lai claimed that production of grain, cotton, and a number
of other agricultural commodities in 1964 will all surpass the levels
attained in 1957. This claim, however, is not borne out by agricul-
tural developments since 1957 and particularly by events in 1964.
Production of grain and cotton in 1957 was claimed, officially to
be 185 million and 1. 6 million tons, * respectively, but China has failed
to reach this level of output again through 1964 except for the bumper
crop year of 1958 (see Table 1). According to official statements, the
total cultivated area of China is now nearly 5 percent less than in 1957.
A detailed compilation of provincial acreage claims for 1964 reveals a
decline of 8 percent in the sown area of grain and a decline of 22 percent
for cotton below the level of 1957. With the current level of inputs and
the recent adverse weather conditions, yields per hectare are not be-
lieved to have increased sufficiently to offset these declines in acreage.
Furthermore, abnormally high losses of grain in storage are anticipated
because the above-normal rainfall has clearly resulted in the storage of
wet grain. Unwarranted optimistic remarks on economic prospects are
endemic with the Chinese Communist leadership, and outright falsifica-
tion of agricultural statistics (as in 1958 and 1959) can be unequivocally
established.
Estimated production of grain in 1964 for the second successive
year is below the 180 million tons believed to have been harvested in
1962. The significance of the decline in production of grain in 1964 to
an estimated 170 million tons is enhanced by the growth of population.
Including retained imports of 6. 6 million tons, availability of grain per
capita has declined by roughly 15 percent from the level of 1957. These
record imports, largely a consequence of the lackluster agricultural
performance, have been made at a cost of more than $420 million (see
Table 2). This total is to be compared with average annual imports of
about 5. 3 million tons for the period 1961 through 1963 at an average
annual cost of about $300 million. In contrast, the value of machinery
and equipment imported in 1964 was only about $150 million. The de-
pressing impact of food imports on Peiping's available foreign exchange
and therefore on China's industrial development is more than a short-
term difficulty. The failure of the Chinese leaders to accord agriculture
Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this publication.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
a sufficient priority to raise production of grain to more adequate
levels not only compounds the Malthusian problem but also impedes
any significant modernization and growth of industry.
Although production of rice increased in 1964, it is believed that
this gain was more than offset by a significant decline in output of
miscellaneous grains (corn, barley, kaoliang, and millet), which nor-
mally account for almost 30 percent of China's total production of
grain, and by a slight reduction in production of wheat. Production
of autumn-harvested miscellaneous grains probably was the lowest in
recent years. The acreage of these grains was reduced sharply in
most areas by prolonged rainfall throughout the normal. planting season.
Heavy rainfall over most of the important producing areas, and par-
ticularly in North China, from late August through 20 September and
throughout most of October reportedly delayed harvesting and caused
very serious losses. In many areas the grain harvested was too wet
for storage. The excessive rainfall in these areas also delayed and
in some areas prevented the planting of crops sown in the fall, such
as wheat, and may seriously affect the outcome of the spring harvest
in 1965.
2. Short Supply in Parts of North China
A tight food situation is likely to occur in some parts of the country
during the winter and spring of 1964/65, particularly in those parts of
North China that were most affected by abnormally heavy rainfall. In
South China, on the other hand, the favorable late harvest should pro-
vide ample supplies of food to maintain consumption during the winter
and spring at about the same favorable level attained during the iden-
tical period in 1963/64.
Certain government measures for mitigating food shortages in the
affected areas have been invoked. These measures include increased
procurement of grain from areas with good harvests and continued
large-scale imports of grain from the West. Contracts have already
been negotiated for the delivery of 1. 8 million tons of grain in the first
half of 1965, with negotiations reportedly continuing for delivery of
additional large quantities.
Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA- P79f0100 002200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
S-EE-C-R-E-T
3. Gains in Meat, Fruit, and Vegetables
Although food consumption is below the level o.f 1957, which was
considered adequate for Chinese requirements, it is well above that
of 1960/61, when malnutrition was widespread. For the most part,
this improvement since. 1960/61 is. attributed tolarge-scale imports
of grain from the West and to a significant increase in the production
of subsidiary foods (pork; poultry, fruits, and- vegetables) obtained-
primarily from the private plots of the peasants. It is estimated that
the share of subsidiary and other nongrain foods in-the daily caloric
intake per capita has increased from only about 5 percent in the very
poor year of 1960/61 to about 18 percent in 1964/65. These foods,
together with grains, would provide an estimated caloric intake-per
capita of about 2, 000 calories per day, in 1964/65 compared with about
2, 300 calories in 1957/58 (see Table 3)-. Although there will be
seasonal variations in availability, vegetables, fruits, and meats-'will
continue to provide a valuable supplement to the diet if there is no
significant retreat from the regime's permissive attitude toward private
plots and free markets. There is no evidence at this time that, the
regime intends any marked shift back to the much more restrictive
commune system.
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Communist China: Estimated Production
of :Major Agricultural Commodities
1957-64
Commodity
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
Total grain
185 a/
200
165
160
165
180
175
170 b/
Rice
86
91
81
79
82
82
74
78
Wheat
24
27
26
22
17
23
23
22
Miscel-
laneous
grains c/
53
45
37
37
41
46
52
44
Tubers 17
22
37
21
22
25
29
26
26
Ginned cotton
1.6
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.0
a.
b.
c.
Official figure.
Preliminary.
Including corn,
barley, kaoliang, and millet.
d.
Computed on a grain equivalent basis of 4 to 1.
Communist China: Retained Imports of Grain
by Quantity and Value a/
1961-64
Year
Thousand Metric Tons
Million 2R I
1961
5,481
298
1962
5,004
303
1963
5,489
316
1964 b/
6,605
423
a. Not including Chinese purchases for reexport to
other destinations.
b. Preliminary.
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-Fib ss 61PO0?k0b2200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
S-E-C-R-E-T
Communist China: Estimated Daily Availability
of Food Per Capita
Selected Years, 1957/58 - 1964/65
Calories per Day Per Capita
tion Year a/
Amount
Consump
1957/58
2,300
1960/61
1,600
1961/62
1,800
1962/63
1,900
1963/64
2,000
000
2
1964/65 b/
,
a. 1 July - 30 June.
b. Preliminary.
25X1A
;!Analysts:
ORR
ORR
S-E-C-R-E-T
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
 VVIME
Approved For Release 200'11174/17 : CIA RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T 03A002200020001-4
SECRET
 Analyst: ?t/ AU
(Project 21. 5213A)
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND REPORTS
St/P/RR - Control Section
Control Sheet
GROUP i
Excluded from owtomaific
downgrading ad
I declassification
Series Number CIA/RR CB 65-2 Classification
Date of Document January 1965 Number of Copies 290
Copy No.
Recipient
Hand carried to O/DDI
RR
DAPLRR
via SA/RR
231
SA/RR
..,
, 232 O/DDI for O/DCI
233 25X1A LS/CR for Marion Larsen,
184..........,x.:,
185
186
,1..87... _ .,19 0
192
193- 195
196 197
198
_ _..,n...,..
199
200
202:......,_. ~.~
204
205
206
-
208 - 210
/AG
CA Staff /DDP
St / P
OCR
211 CGS/HR/Ops, 1G81, Hq.
212 229, 264 - 2,80, 289 Filed in St/P/C
De t. of Agriculture
R/AG for Eugene T. Olson, Agriculture
25X1A
SECRET
Date
"-..---..-n.r..^.." - - --
12Jan65
12 Jan 65
12 Jan 65
_5X1A
 9TO1003A00 0002000 25X1A
a z 12 2 I t- 25X1A
25X1A
25X1 C
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001 /64ii y:4 3 -RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
12 January 1965
SUBJECT. Distribution of Current Support B
Aut xn Harvest in Corn unist China Reduces
Supplies ?-- January 1965SECRr: I
Copy No.
18
19-20
21 - 29
3+0 32
28 1 - 286
287
288
0/101X, ROOM U32, Hdgtrs.
NIC
OCI Internal
ONE
NSA
St/CS
O/1)13
f No. 65-2, Poor
25X1A
25X1A
Sent direct to St/AIDS for ORR Distribution
(copies I - 17 were hand carried to the O/1?DI on 8 Jan 651
Distributed by OCR
Excluded iron automatic
dowaradin~ and
d a C i A;~ 5! i 1 C i! i 3 0l4
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
 Approved For Release 2001/
Recipient
Poor,
St/A/DS Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 65-2.
~
ut es
R+c
Autumn Harvest in Communist 4-=nA
Copy No.
1X
35
36
37-42
43 - 48
49 - 54
55
56 - 60
61 - 66
67
68-76
77-78
79-80
81
82 - 87
88
89
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102 - 103
104 -y
107
108
106
109
- 110
113
- 114
115
- 153
154
157
158
169
170
171
172
173
174
- 230
63
Ch/E
St/PR
D/A (l each branch)
D/MS (1 each branch)
D/ R (1 each branch)
MRA
D/P (1 each branch)
P/F (1 each branch)
St/PS
D/I (1 each branch)
D/GG
D/GC
D/GX/X
RID/AN, Unit 4, Room 1B4004, Hq.
St/P/A
St/FM
~4'~r'~,xsrsrs~c,e
GR/CR
BR/CR
FIB/SR/CR, Room 1G27, Hq.
Library/CR
IPI/CR.
AD
Chief, OCR/FDD
s:CD/OO
OCI/SA/R, Room 5G19, Hq.
DDI/CGS, Room 7F35, Hq.
DDI/CGS/HR, Room 1G81, Hq.
OS:1
OBI
DD/S T/SAINT
OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, Broyhill
--- 0--r-. n 1Cr119 . I
!?.____ ~~ air National war College;
Classified Kecoras oet.ai- , ---
25X1A
1000 Glebe (1 - OTR/SIC)
slie McNair, Attn:
Nat'l War College Bldg.
Washington, D. C .
Room 4D825, Pent
Defense,
Ass-i'stant Secretary of
Defense Intelligence Agency ,DIAAQ9 3, ABldg., Arlin gton on
Hall Station
USIA, Warren Phelps, IRR/D, Room 812, Walker Johnson
Buildia.- 1734 New York Avenue, N. W.
Room 7818, State Dept. Bldg.
State, Communications Center,
Executive Office Bldg.
Dr. Neilson, Debevoise, NSC, Room 365,
Agency for International Development, Chief,
Frank M.Charre~te,
Statistics and Reports Division, ~t1P/~, A-204, ~~ State ~ ~ Annex $~ 10
St/P/C/RR, Room 4F41, Hq.?held
Records Center
Approved For Release 2001/04/17: CIA f X( *002200020001-4
ALJ. deefae:iflcaflOtl
 SECRET
Approved For Release 2001/04/17 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02200020001-4
18 January 1965
M]4ORAND14 FCR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD,CR
FRS : Chief, Publications Staff, ORR
SUBJECT Transmittal of Material
It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-2, Poor
Autumn Harvest in Communist China Reduces Domestic Grain Supplies,
January f9"65.. Secret, be forwarded as follows:
State, INR Communications Center,
Roam 7818, State Dept. Bldg.
Suggested distribution for
F ubassies in Bangkok, Hong Hong,
Singapore, Taipei, and Tokyo
25X1A
Attachments:
Copies +2 ?3 - #227 of CB 65-2
cc: CGS/RB
BY: 7 i9i5'
Date: l
/S
Approved For Release 2001/04/1't ;1 P7d91101003A002200020001-4
SECRET
 Approved For Release 2001/0,Kl :3~ -RDP79T01003A002200020001-4
Project No. 21. 5213A
Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-2
Title Poor Autumn Harvest in Communist China Reduces Domestic
Grain Supplies (SECRET)
Responsible Analyst and Branch
R/AG
25X1A
RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS
Far East
ARA
Germany
Berlin
3angkok, Thailand
Mexico
,
Romania
Bucharest
Djakarta, Indonesia
Guatemala
,
Hungary
est
Buda
.'Hong Kong
Panama
,
p
USSR
Moscow
Rangoon, Burma
Brazillia, Brazil
i
,
Czechoslovakia
ue
Pra
Kuala Lumpur, Malaya
na
Buenos Aires, Argent
i
,
g
Bulgaria
Sofia
Saigon, Vietnam
a
Bogota, Colomb
,
Poland
Warsaw
Seoul, Korea
Santiago, Chile
,
vSingapore, British Malaya
La Paz, Bolivia
e
ro
E
,,/Taipei, Formosa
Montevideo, Uruguay
l
p
u
a
Caracas, Venezue
vTokyo, Japan
Belgrade, Yugoslavia
Vientiane, Laos
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Bern, Switzerland
Bonn, Germany
Colombo, Ceylon
Yaounde, Cameroun
Belgium
Brussels
C
,
Denmark
en
enha
Co
Near East & South Asia
ongo
Leopoldville,
i
,
g
p
a
Addis Ababa, Ethop
Germany
Frankfurt
,
Switzerland
Geneva
Ankara, Turkey
Accra, Ghana
t
C
,
Helsinki, Finland
Athens, Greece
oas
Abidjan, Ivory
Nairobi, Kenya
Netherlands
ue
The Ha
Cairo, Egypt
i
,
g
Portugal
Lisbon
Camascus, Syria
a
Monrovia, Liber
,
England
London
Kabul, Afghanistan
Tripoli, Libya
,
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
Karachi, Pakistan
Rabat, Morocco
,
Spain
drid
M
New Delhi, India
Lagos, Nigeria
l
,
a
Norway
Oslo
Nicosia, Cyprus
Mogadiscio, Soma
d
,
France
Paris
Tehran, Iran
an
Khartoum, Su
i
,
Italy
e
Ro
Baghdad, Iraq
a
Tunis, Tunis
i
Af
,
m
Sweden
Stockholm
Tel Aviv, Israel
r
ca
Pretoria, South
i
,
Austria
Vienna
Beirut, Lebanon
a
Algiers, Alger
,
Amman, Jordon
Cotonou, Dahomey
Pacific
Jidda, Saudi Arabia
Dakar, Senegal
Bamako, Mali
Wellington, New Zealand
Manila, Philippine s
Canberra, Australia
Ottawa, Canada
Me lbour yjp? P
'A r~rYle4%~~elease 2001/04/17: CIA-P 8a& ~4~n3>t~t6irgr2i'00020001 -4
dor.?^arading and
x* R 999 dne!a=;tieilna
 SECRET
lied
Approved For Re qnnjjbj ,1F4 Jn4
RECORD OF REVIEW OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURIANA
BR ANC H
STRUCTIONS
:r SANITIZING IN
SECURITY REVIEW
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and declassification