TRANSMITTAL OF MATERIAL

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 12, 2000
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: September 17, 1965
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2000/04/~~:~~c~R~P79T01003A002300230002-9
17 ptembcr 1+6;5
MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD~CR
FROM Acting Chief
, Publications Staff, ORR
SUBJECT Transmittal of Material
It is requested that the attached c
i
op
es of CIA~RR CB ~
~A r.:i.culture 3n Larnm~;a~~x+ ~,,,,,,~~,.~_ -- ..._. _ ~?5~~ ~'r~3s~e~t~
State, INR Communications Center,
Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg.
Suggested distribution for
Embassies in Berlin, Buchare~~, $~~~&~~
Mc~scot~a, ~'x'ague, Safia.~ Waa?s~,tir,, inn,
IAndon,. CarzT~erra, F~rng Kt3n~, ~ac~ ~~aw~
25X1A
Attachments:
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cet CG~fRB
Approved For Release 2000/04/17
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01003A002300230002-9
 Approved For Release 2000/04/17
Project No, 21.4600
P79T01003A002300230002-9
Report Series CIA./RR CB 65-50
Title: Prospects for Agriculture in Communist Countries as of Mid-Au ust
Ig65 (SECRET)
Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG 25X1A
RECOMMENDED I7ISTRIBUT.tON TO STATE POSTS
B :1.in, Germany
Bucharest, Romania
Budapest, Hungary
~IGloscow, USSR
4-a--Prague, Czechoslovakia
,.Sofia, Bulgaria
_"~--Warsaw, Poland
Europe
Belgrade, Yugoslavia
Bern, Switzerland
`-B"onn, Germany
Brussels, Belgium
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`? London, England
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Vienna; Austria
Pacific
Wellington, New Zealand
Manila, Philippines
'?-Canberra, Australia
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Far East
--.---
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Hong Kong
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Near East & South Asia
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Tehran, Iran
Baghdad, Iraq
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--Ottawa, Canada
Approved For Release 2
Mexico
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Panama
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Africa
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Dakar, Senegal
Bamako, Mali
~x~~l~ T01003A002300230002-9
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~~wed For Release 2000/04.~~~-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9
CONIMEIVTS ON ~ CRITIQUE OF C1A BRIEF' CB 65-50 25X1 C
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The following comments are in response to The
presents a critique of CTA's early crop estimate for 1965 in
Communist China as presented in CIA/RR CB 65-50, "Prospects for Agriculture
in Communist Countries as of mid-August 1965."
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disagrees with the CIA estimate of production of winter wheat
and winter miscellaneous grains in 1965 as being too low.
2. CIA does not agree that the material presented in either
or in the Cheng-chow announcement of 23 August 1965 is conclusive evi-
dence supporting an estimate of a 1965 winter wheat harvest-about eque~l to that
of 1.961+. In particular we would like to call to attention the fact that in-
ferences drawn from the provincial press that the area sown to wheat
was only a "few percent less" than that of 1961+ and that the acreage of 1965
crop "was greater than 1963" are not borne out by a compilation of provincial
winter wheat acreage statistics. These statistics are as follows:
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~" `? `~ ~ 000 hectares
1964
1g~ __
1, 7
1, 533
1, 500
Sinkiang
640
667
740
Szechwan
1,050 (approx)
1,500 {approx)
1,333
Anhwei
1,680 {approx}
1,850 (approx}
1,$00
Hopei
1, 533
2,187
7-, 333
Honan
4, 667
4, 867
4, 000
Shansi
870
933
867
Shantung
3,667~
3 867
15~
17~
~
1 , 90
Ninghsia
na
60
67
Kiangsu
na
1, 214
1, 400
200
Kiangsi
na
~ ~
l
Total China (derived) 20,895 22,385 ~ 20,218
St may be noted from the above data that provinces for which data are available
for each of the 3 years, 1863-65, normally account for about 75 percent of the
total winter wheat acreage. ~ Provinces for which data are available for 1964
and 1965 account for some 83 percent of the total winter wheat acreage. From
these data we estimate that the acreage of winter wheat in 1965 was some 10
percent below the level of 1g64 and 3 percent below the level of 1863. However,
some of the decline in 1965 was made up by the sowing of buckwheat (ra~,id
maturing, but low yielding) in Hopeh and Honan.
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While it is true that Radio Chengchow, Honan, announced on 23 .August that
the total output achieved in 1965 "represented an increase of more than ~+0 per-
cent on the 196+ figure", the same editorial admitted that "during wheat sowing
last autumn 70 days of continuous rain resulted in extreme difficulties" and
only about two-thirds of the target area was successfully sown. Admittedly the
target area for sowing is not known, but a sowing plan failure of this magnitude
would certainly make suspect a claimed ~+0 percent increase in production.
CIA believes that although rainfall was above normal dur:f.ng
April 1965 over most of the winter wheat area, the quantities involved s~rere
rather small, ranging from less than once inch (25mm) in Northern Hopeh to
around ~+ inches (100mm) in the southern extremity of the North China Plain.
These quantities are not believed tc ha~~e been sufficient to compensate far
the extrgmely dry winter and spring nog ~'or the adverse conditions unde~? which
the crop was sown. The tardiness ire. sotia:i.ng is in itself a factor which the
Chinese have admitted normally reduced ;~i.elds. It should also be noted that
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rainfall during May averaged only about 50 percent of normal over most of the
ma,~or wheat growing areas, and except for northern Anhwei and northern B~.angsu,
was anly about 75 percent of normal during June.
3. With, respect to winter miscellaneous grains, CIA does not agree; with
that the p3?oduction of these crops was about the se~xne as
in 196+. These grains, largely barley and beans, are concentrated main:Ly 3.n
southern and central Anhwei, so~zthern Kiangsu, Szechwan, and in Central Chj.na.
Considerable acreages of winter miscellaneous grains are also found in Hnru~a.n
and southwest China. The acreage of these crops are normally small in South
China. It has been admitted by the Chinese that the acreage of winter mis-
cellaneous grains is down in th.e majority of the more important regions. because
of the wet autumn of 196+ and a shift of some miscellaneous grain areas into
winter wheat. Although most of these provinces claimed that the total acreage
of fall-sown crops. was "near normal", a larger portion was admittedly devoted
to green manure crops (thus reducing the acreage of winter grains, and to a
lesser extent, rape . For example, in Szechwan the acreage of all win'~ter grains
was xeduced from 3,300,000 hectares in 196+ to about 2,827,000 hectares in 1965
and in Hunan from 2,253,000 hectares in 196+ to 2,067,000 hectares in ;1965.
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However, the acreage of green manure crops in Hunan increased by 267,000
hectares during this period. The acreage of winter grains was admittedly down
in Anhwei in 1965 and in Kiangsu there was a decrease of about 200,000 hectares
in winter miscellaneous grains. CIA now believes that the acreage of winter
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miscellaneous grains was about 15 percent less than in 1964. However, yields
are believed to have been relatively better than in the mayor winter wJzeat areas
but less than in 1964.
4.
C?A also does not believe that there have been
"general crop failures." However, there are strong indications that the winter
grains were seriously affected by poor weather conditions in many areas. The
extent of crop losses varied between localities and regions. In any event,
there is little relationship between the relative bountifulness of the: rape
harvest and that of the winter wheat harvest since, the two crops are, far the
most part, grown in different areas of the country. It is believed tYia,t the
L
acreage of rape was maintained in 1965 at about the same level as in 1964
(1.9 million hectares} despite serious sowing problems in some areas. This
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crop probably is grown an better land and receives conaiderabl.y mare specialized
treatment.
5. CIA's latest assessment of the late harvest (CB 65-62, Oct 65) is that
the outlook is currently somewhat more favorable than it was in 1964; h~awever,
the increase in the output of fall-harvested grain will at best do little more
than compensate for the estimated decline of about 4 million tons in the
harvest of early grains.
6. In fact, CIA believes that the total harvest of grain in 1965 will
not deviate significantly from the mediocre crop of 1964 which is now estimated
to have been between 170 and 175 million tons. While it is true that the pop-
elation has increased by at least 60 million (end of year 1965 since-1961,/62,
there has been no significant deterioration in food supplies. This situation
has been made possible by net imports of more than 5 million tons of grain per
year and by substantial gains in the production of nongrain foods, pri~ria,rily
from the private sector. The availability of nongrain foods is estimated to
x
have increased from 200 calories per capita per day in 1961/62 to 350 calories
per capita per day in 1965/66, accounting for 18 percent of the total calorie
intake of 1,900 calories per capita per day in 1965/66. This appears i;o
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correspond with the food consumption levels reported by refugees from South
China whose food availability during the 196+/65 consumption year reportedly
averaged about 1,g00 calories per capita per day. This level is apparently
being maintained thus far in 1965/66. The level of production of nongrain foods
required to provide 18 percent of the total caloric intake is entirely feasible
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on the basis of a "mix" of nongrain foods as consumed by refugees from South
China in recent years.
7, reports from
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travelers in~recent years have indicated that the food supply has improved
great~.y over the very poor situation in 1860/61. however,
indicate that the improvement has come about through increased supplies of non-
grain foods rather than through increases in the grain ration. In addition, most
of the travelers' reports are based on observations in urban areas or in rural areas
adjacent to major population centers. There is a significant lads of specific
information on the food situation in the remote rural areas, particularly those
in North China that have been beset by natural calamities during the past three
years. In many of these areas, miscellaneous grains (such as corn-, millet, and
_7_
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pulses are a principal staple in the diet. The production of these grains was
sharply reduced in the autumn of 196+ and probably will not be significantly
better this year. Zt is believed that rather severe food shortages may have
occurred in many areas of North China in the winter and spring of 1965 and may
be repeated in some areas during the coming winter and spring, Admittedly,
however, it is extremely difficult to generalize on the food situation i.n the
rural areas of a country the size of China. Far example, since the breakup of
the communes, the production team has been given the responsibility for dis~tri-
button of foodstuffs to its members. Distribution of grain to team members is
made after deducting the government tax and procurement quotas. As a result,
food rationing and distribution will vary not only between provinces and counties
in China but also between production teams within the same commune.
8. CTA information on Chinese grain contracts for delivery in 1865 and
1966 are as followso
Source
Amount
Date of Contract
Delivery `
Date
Ar entina
l million tons
12 Apr '65
Apr?-Oct 1965
100,000 tons
Oct '65
Oct?-Nov 1865
(100 option on above
Australia
1.1 million tans
1.5 million tons
22 Oct '6~+
Nov '6~+-Jun '65
1.2 million tons
3 Apr '65
JunE:-Dec '65
2.7 million tans
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Source Amount 7:~,~,te of Contract Deliver Date
Canada 700,000 tons 22 Jan '65
100,000 tons 28 Jan '65
1.5 million tons 2~+ Ma,y '65
625L000 tons 22 Jul '65
2.9 million tons
Total to Date 6.7 million ?tons
Feb-June '65
n n it
Jul '65-Apr '66
' 65-Jizl ~ 66
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 RECOR[~ OF REVIEYJ OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SAN ITIZATION
APPROVAL 25X1A
SUBJECT
~J / rte//
BR N
EX
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+`~''J Y
~~
~~/~~'~
SECURITY REVIEW
/Gl ~~$"" yl~ SANITIZING INSTRUCTIONS
ITEM
DATE
INITIALS
UNEDITED DRAFT
,~// ~,~,~5
.+~-T''' l~GC~'~~~ `~.f"" - ~
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EDITED DRAFT
DELETE
RELEASABLE TO
FOREIGN RECIPIENT
YES
NO
X
SUBSTITUTE
X
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REMARKS
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