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November 16, 2016
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January 12, 2000
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September 17, 1965
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Approved For Release 2000/04/~~:~~c~R~P79T01003A002300230002-9 17 ptembcr 1+6;5 MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD~CR FROM Acting Chief , Publications Staff, ORR SUBJECT Transmittal of Material It is requested that the attached c i op es of CIA~RR CB ~ ~A r.:i.culture 3n Larnm~;a~~x+ ~,,,,,,~~,.~_ -- ..._. _ ~?5~~ ~'r~3s~e~t~ State, INR Communications Center, Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg. Suggested distribution for Embassies in Berlin, Buchare~~, $~~~&~~ Mc~scot~a, ~'x'ague, Safia.~ Waa?s~,tir,, inn, IAndon,. CarzT~erra, F~rng Kt3n~, ~ac~ ~~aw~ 25X1A Attachments: ~p~ea ~,U -- X221. ~f' ~~-54 cet CG~fRB Approved For Release 2000/04/17 SE~~~~- I{]~ ~ru y~p ' ~4k7~~~7" 'fFia d~ssmrn~rn~~d~it rc:~,u:'.-2d by c this rnemora~x~um'has been cam~lle[~,, i~Y.'~~,lS`~ 01003A002300230002-9 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 Project No, 21.4600 P79T01003A002300230002-9 Report Series CIA./RR CB 65-50 Title: Prospects for Agriculture in Communist Countries as of Mid-Au ust Ig65 (SECRET) Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG 25X1A RECOMMENDED I7ISTRIBUT.tON TO STATE POSTS B, Germany Bucharest, Romania Budapest, Hungary ~IGloscow, USSR 4-a--Prague, Czechoslovakia ,.Sofia, Bulgaria _"~--Warsaw, Poland Europe Belgrade, Yugoslavia Bern, Switzerland `-B"onn, Germany Brussels, Belgium Copenhagen, Denmark Geneva, Switzerland Helsinki, Finland The Hague, Netherlands Lisbon, Portugal `? London, England Luxembourg, Luxembourg Madrid, .Spain Oslo, Norway Paris, France Rome, Italy Stockholm, Sweden Vienna; Austria Pacific Wellington, New Zealand Manila, Philippines '?-Canberra, Australia Melbourne, Australia Far East --.--- Bangkok, Thailand Djakarta, Indonesia Hong Kong Rangoon, Burma Kuala Lumpur, Malaya Saigon, Vietnam Seoul, Korea Singapore, British Malaya Taipei, Formosa Tokyo, Japan Vientiane, Laos Colombo, Ceylon Near East & South Asia Ankara, Turkey Athens, Greece Cairo, Egypt Damascus, Syria Kabul, Afghanistan Karachi, Pakistan New Delhi, India Nicosia, Cyprus Tehran, Iran Baghdad, Iraq Tel Aviv, Israel Beirut, Lebanon Amman, Jordon Jidda, Saudi Arabia --Ottawa, Canada Approved For Release 2 Mexico Guatemala Panama Brazi.llia, Brazil Buenos Aire;, Argentina Bogota, Colambi.a Santigao, Chile La Paz, Bolivia Montevideo, Uruguay Caracas, Venezuela Africa Yaounde, Ca~.neroun Leopoldville, Congo Addis Ababa, Ethopia Accra, Ghana Abidjan, Ivory Coast Nairobi, Kenya Monro?~ria, Liberia Tripoli, Libya Rabat, Morocco Lagos., Niger:~a Mogadiscio, ~iomal Khartoum, Sudan Tunis, Tunisia Pretoria, South Africa Algiers, Algeria Cotonou, Dahomey Dakar, Senegal Bamako, Mali ~x~~l~ T01003A002300230002-9 daw~;rading' and:.?; AcClaa'~iflCatfntl ~?> ` n` ~~wed For Release 2000/04.~~~-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 CONIMEIVTS ON ~ CRITIQUE OF C1A BRIEF' CB 65-50 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C The following comments are in response to The presents a critique of CTA's early crop estimate for 1965 in Communist China as presented in CIA/RR CB 65-50, "Prospects for Agriculture in Communist Countries as of mid-August 1965." 25X1 C disagrees with the CIA estimate of production of winter wheat and winter miscellaneous grains in 1965 as being too low. 2. CIA does not agree that the material presented in either or in the Cheng-chow announcement of 23 August 1965 is conclusive evi- dence supporting an estimate of a 1965 winter wheat harvest-about eque~l to that of 1.961+. In particular we would like to call to attention the fact that in- ferences drawn from the provincial press that the area sown to wheat was only a "few percent less" than that of 1961+ and that the acreage of 1965 crop "was greater than 1963" are not borne out by a compilation of provincial winter wheat acreage statistics. These statistics are as follows: Approved For Release 2000/04/1 ~~: ~ ~ ~RP79T01003A002300230002-9 Approved For Release 2000/04~~~;~~ RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 ~" `? `~ ~ 000 hectares 1964 1g~ __ 1, 7 1, 533 1, 500 Sinkiang 640 667 740 Szechwan 1,050 (approx) 1,500 {approx) 1,333 Anhwei 1,680 {approx} 1,850 (approx} 1,$00 Hopei 1, 533 2,187 7-, 333 Honan 4, 667 4, 867 4, 000 Shansi 870 933 867 Shantung 3,667~ 3 867 15~ 17~ ~ 1 , 90 Ninghsia na 60 67 Kiangsu na 1, 214 1, 400 200 Kiangsi na ~ ~ l Total China (derived) 20,895 22,385 ~ 20,218 St may be noted from the above data that provinces for which data are available for each of the 3 years, 1863-65, normally account for about 75 percent of the total winter wheat acreage. ~ Provinces for which data are available for 1964 and 1965 account for some 83 percent of the total winter wheat acreage. From these data we estimate that the acreage of winter wheat in 1965 was some 10 percent below the level of 1g64 and 3 percent below the level of 1863. However, some of the decline in 1965 was made up by the sowing of buckwheat (ra~,id maturing, but low yielding) in Hopeh and Honan. Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : ~~~79T01003A002300230002-9 'w Approved For Release 2000/04/17 ~~~A~~DP79T01003A002300230002-9 r 25X1 C 25X1 C While it is true that Radio Chengchow, Honan, announced on 23 .August that the total output achieved in 1965 "represented an increase of more than ~+0 per- cent on the 196+ figure", the same editorial admitted that "during wheat sowing last autumn 70 days of continuous rain resulted in extreme difficulties" and only about two-thirds of the target area was successfully sown. Admittedly the target area for sowing is not known, but a sowing plan failure of this magnitude would certainly make suspect a claimed ~+0 percent increase in production. CIA believes that although rainfall was above normal April 1965 over most of the winter wheat area, the quantities involved s~rere rather small, ranging from less than once inch (25mm) in Northern Hopeh to around ~+ inches (100mm) in the southern extremity of the North China Plain. These quantities are not believed tc ha~~e been sufficient to compensate far the extrgmely dry winter and spring nog ~'or the adverse conditions unde~? which the crop was sown. The tardiness ire. is in itself a factor which the Chinese have admitted normally reduced ;~i.elds. It should also be noted that Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :CIA-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 ~~~~~~ Approved For Release 2000/04/17, P79T01003A002300230002-9 ~~ . ~ h 25X1 C rainfall during May averaged only about 50 percent of normal over most of the ma,~or wheat growing areas, and except for northern Anhwei and northern B~.angsu, was anly about 75 percent of normal during June. 3. With, respect to winter miscellaneous grains, CIA does not agree; with that the p3?oduction of these crops was about the se~xne as in 196+. These grains, largely barley and beans, are concentrated main:Ly 3.n southern and central Anhwei, so~zthern Kiangsu, Szechwan, and in Central Considerable acreages of winter miscellaneous grains are also found in Hnru~a.n and southwest China. The acreage of these crops are normally small in South China. It has been admitted by the Chinese that the acreage of winter mis- cellaneous grains is down in th.e majority of the more important regions. because of the wet autumn of 196+ and a shift of some miscellaneous grain areas into winter wheat. Although most of these provinces claimed that the total acreage of fall-sown crops. was "near normal", a larger portion was admittedly devoted to green manure crops (thus reducing the acreage of winter grains, and to a lesser extent, rape . For example, in Szechwan the acreage of all win'~ter grains was xeduced from 3,300,000 hectares in 196+ to about 2,827,000 hectares in 1965 and in Hunan from 2,253,000 hectares in 196+ to 2,067,000 hectares in ;1965. Approved For Release 2000/04/17 : ~~h4=RDP7~~9--T01003A002300230002-9 ~6~ iApproved For Release 2000/04/1F~DP79T01003A002300230002-9 However, the acreage of green manure crops in Hunan increased by 267,000 hectares during this period. The acreage of winter grains was admittedly down in Anhwei in 1965 and in Kiangsu there was a decrease of about 200,000 hectares in winter miscellaneous grains. CIA now believes that the acreage of winter 25X1 C 25X1 C miscellaneous grains was about 15 percent less than in 1964. However, yields are believed to have been relatively better than in the mayor winter wJzeat areas but less than in 1964. 4. C?A also does not believe that there have been "general crop failures." However, there are strong indications that the winter grains were seriously affected by poor weather conditions in many areas. The extent of crop losses varied between localities and regions. In any event, there is little relationship between the relative bountifulness of the: rape harvest and that of the winter wheat harvest since, the two crops are, far the most part, grown in different areas of the country. It is believed tYia,t the L acreage of rape was maintained in 1965 at about the same level as in 1964 (1.9 million hectares} despite serious sowing problems in some areas. This -5- Approved Fdr Release 2000/04/17 : CI~~T01003A002300230002-9 ?' ,_ J R. i~pproved For Release 2000/04/1~f~F~DP79T01003A002.300230002-9 crop probably is grown an better land and receives conaiderabl.y mare specialized treatment. 5. CIA's latest assessment of the late harvest (CB 65-62, Oct 65) is that the outlook is currently somewhat more favorable than it was in 1964; h~awever, the increase in the output of fall-harvested grain will at best do little more than compensate for the estimated decline of about 4 million tons in the harvest of early grains. 6. In fact, CIA believes that the total harvest of grain in 1965 will not deviate significantly from the mediocre crop of 1964 which is now estimated to have been between 170 and 175 million tons. While it is true that the pop- elation has increased by at least 60 million (end of year 1965 since-1961,/62, there has been no significant deterioration in food supplies. This situation has been made possible by net imports of more than 5 million tons of grain per year and by substantial gains in the production of nongrain foods, pri~ria,rily from the private sector. The availability of nongrain foods is estimated to x have increased from 200 calories per capita per day in 1961/62 to 350 calories per capita per day in 1965/66, accounting for 18 percent of the total calorie intake of 1,900 calories per capita per day in 1965/66. This appears i;o Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :-CAA=RDP79TQ,~003A002300230002-9 n^. s~ ~A~proved -For Release 2000/04 ~ ~~ ~=RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 ,~ correspond with the food consumption levels reported by refugees from South China whose food availability during the 196+/65 consumption year reportedly averaged about 1,g00 calories per capita per day. This level is apparently being maintained thus far in 1965/66. The level of production of nongrain foods required to provide 18 percent of the total caloric intake is entirely feasible 25X1 C on the basis of a "mix" of nongrain foods as consumed by refugees from South China in recent years. 7, reports from 25X1 C travelers in~recent years have indicated that the food supply has improved great~.y over the very poor situation in 1860/61. however, indicate that the improvement has come about through increased supplies of non- grain foods rather than through increases in the grain ration. In addition, most of the travelers' reports are based on observations in urban areas or in rural areas adjacent to major population centers. There is a significant lads of specific information on the food situation in the remote rural areas, particularly those in North China that have been beset by natural calamities during the past three years. In many of these areas, miscellaneous grains (such as corn-, millet, and _7_ Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :CIA-I~I~ ~ 1003A002300230002-9 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 ~I~P79T01003A002300230002-9 pulses are a principal staple in the diet. The production of these grains was sharply reduced in the autumn of 196+ and probably will not be significantly better this year. Zt is believed that rather severe food shortages may have occurred in many areas of North China in the winter and spring of 1965 and may be repeated in some areas during the coming winter and spring, Admittedly, however, it is extremely difficult to generalize on the food situation i.n the rural areas of a country the size of China. Far example, since the breakup of the communes, the production team has been given the responsibility for dis~tri- button of foodstuffs to its members. Distribution of grain to team members is made after deducting the government tax and procurement quotas. As a result, food rationing and distribution will vary not only between provinces and counties in China but also between production teams within the same commune. 8. CTA information on Chinese grain contracts for delivery in 1865 and 1966 are as followso Source Amount Date of Contract Delivery ` Date Ar entina l million tons 12 Apr '65 Apr?-Oct 1965 100,000 tons Oct '65 Oct?-Nov 1865 (100 option on above Australia 1.1 million tans 1.5 million tons 22 Oct '6~+ Nov '6~+-Jun '65 1.2 million tons 3 Apr '65 JunE:-Dec '65 2.7 million tans -8- Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :CIA-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 .?~ V ~ t ' F;; `' Cs approved For Release 2000/04/17 : ~I~ "-1~~~79T01003A002300230002-9 Source Amount 7:~,~,te of Contract Deliver Date Canada 700,000 tons 22 Jan '65 100,000 tons 28 Jan '65 1.5 million tons 2~+ Ma,y '65 625L000 tons 22 Jul '65 2.9 million tons Total to Date 6.7 million ?tons Feb-June '65 n n it Jul '65-Apr '66 ' 65-Jizl ~ 66 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 ~~ F~ A 79T01003A002300230002-9 Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :CIA-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 25X1 C Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/04/17 :CIA-RDP79T01003A002300230002-9 RECOR[~ OF REVIEYJ OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SAN ITIZATION APPROVAL 25X1A SUBJECT ~J / rte// BR N EX H +`~''J Y ~~ ~~/~~'~ SECURITY REVIEW /Gl ~~$"" yl~ SANITIZING INSTRUCTIONS ITEM DATE INITIALS UNEDITED DRAFT ,~// ~,~,~5 .+~-T''' l~GC~'~~~ `~.f"" - ~ 25X1 C EDITED DRAFT DELETE RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN RECIPIENT YES NO X SUBSTITUTE X 25X1 C REMARKS i`G''Qi ~%'S~a'_ _ _" c~ ~.sZ-c7 ..~%i~ ? !9'"i ~~P/' /ja/',yyL G ~Ci~~% ~~ ~~~ _ - "~ ~C_ ~'~G?-~ a~ .~'-sr~2~G~ ~( ,~.,e~~' "------._______. 25X1 C G ~,'~.~p~ ~ 25X1 C 25X1 A -T~7~ c~:.