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December 9, 2016
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July 7, 2000
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October 1, 1965
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roved For Release 2000/08/29: G 9T01003A002400110001-2 AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST' COUNTRIES M AY RESULT IN RECORD GRAIN IMPORTS DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Office of Research and Reports Approved For.. Release 2000/08/2~EE&%P79T01003A00 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Secs. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/2, _ (IA-FpP r79T01003A002400110001-2 AGRICULTURAL SITUATION IN COMMUNIST COUNTRIES MAY RESULT IN RECORD GRAIN IMPORTS An analysis of the agricultural situation in the USSR, Eastern Europe, and Communist China as of mid-October 1965 indicates that total grain imports by these countries from the Free World in the consumption year 1965/66-"--'.- may reach a record level of 23 million to 24 million metric tons (mt), The previous record of 22.. 6 million mt was set in 1963/64 (see Table 1) Purchase agreements concluded to date provide for total imports of some 18 million to 19 million mt,, Communist China currently is negotiating with Canada, Australia, and Argentina for additional wheat? Some of these negotiations relate to long-term agreements (for example, anew three-year agreement with Canada), but it is likely that Communist China, will purchase an addi- tional million tons of wheat, and possibly more, for delivery by June 1966. The USSR also may need several million tons in addition to the amount already contracted for.. Soviet officials have recently disclosed a need for additional imports of quality wheat. The amount to be im- ported could depend not only on the quality of the Soviet crop but also on the level of consumption considered necessary by the Soviet leaders. In view of the limitations in supplies and/or port handling capacities in other major wheat-exporting countries, the USSR may approach the United States for part or all of any additional requirements, Similarly, some of the countries of Eastern Europe may also approach the United States for grain, but their interest is more likely to be in the purchase of feed grains -- for which requirements still amount to some 2 million mt. Agricultural output in the USSR in 1.965 probably will be slightly be- low the level achieved in 1964 A decrease in the production of crops should be largely offset by an increase in the output of livestock products, As a result of the relatively poor wheat crop in 1.965, the USSR signed in July-August 1965 purchase agreements for about 7 million mt of wheat from the West.. In addition, as of 1 July 1965 more than 2 million mt remained to be delivered in 1965 66 under earlier agreements. Although the availability of wheat pc r capita in 1965/66 wi'l be significantly higher than in 1963/64, s. v ral million additional tons would be needed to bring the availability l)er cap~ta up to the average for the period 1954/55 through 1962/63 Nuv,,?rthy?lcess, the food situation in 1965/66, in general, should be conside!r?ably hH'tt,cr than in 1963/64, when severe shortages of staple food items wer-? wicltspread and the quality of bread was drastically Albania, Bulgaria, (;rechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, Rumania, and Yut esl.rvia 00 Beginning l lily 196) Approved For Release 2000/08/291:- CIALRDP79T01003A002400110001-2 Approved For Relea a 20pOfQ81/.291.: CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 reduced. At the recent Party Plenum, Brezhnev assured the popula- tion that "everything necessary" had been done "to insure a normal supply of bread products in the country- " The agricultural situation in most countries of Eastern Europe in 1965 is mixed, with a decline in crop production being at least partly offset by an increase in livestock production. Total grain production is currently estimated to be about 5 percent below that of last year and about the same as in 1963 (see Table Z) Although most countries had an excellent harvest of breadgrains (largely winter grains), the output of spring grains and row crops is down. It is estimated, therefore, that Eastern Europe will again need to import a total of approximately 9 million mt of grain in 1965/66, or about the same amount as last year. Yugoslavia already has approached the United States for 1. 35 million mt of wheat under Public Law 480 arrangements. It is likely that several other Eastern European countries also may come to the United States for grain - - but probably for feed grains rather than wheat. However, if these countries are unable to obtain enough high-quality wheat from other sources or if the USSR fails to honor its commitments to East Germany and Czechoslovakia, purchases of wheat may also be made. Production of grain in Communist China in 1965 is estimated to be about the same as the mediocre crop of 170 million to 175 million mt harvested in 1964. The size of the harvest in 1965, however, is still heavily dependent on the outcome of the late grain crops, which in some areas will not be harvested until the latter part of November. As in recent years, the growth of population has again exceeded any likely increase in the production of grain; however, Chinese Communist im- ports of grain and the increased consumption of subsidiary foods -- primarily leafy vegetable-, fruits, and animal products produced mainly on private plots - - have compensated in part for the stagnation in domestic grain production.: In recent years Communist China has purchased some 5 million tc 6 million mt of grain annually from the Free World. This level ul imports is likely to be maintained in 1965/66. Production of grain in the: USS,Z in 1365 will be about 100 million mt, a decrease of one -sixth i rc,tn they I ul the harvest in 1964 but almost For a more detailed disc iss!c,n cat thc? current agricultural and food situation in Communt~I t.htn.t, sc?i? (.:A RR CB 65-62, Little Change in Chinese Communist At,rt' t-itural S!t1t,tttc,n Expected in 1965, October 1965, SECRET. Approved For Release'2OO6/018'/19-:'CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : f1.A%R 7~T0~1003A002400110001-2 one-tenth larger than the disastrous crop in 1963, As of 5 October, about 12 million hectares of small grains (about 10 percent of the total) had not been harvested. The slow rate of harvesting since mid-September suggests that several million hectares will not be harvested before the onset of winter. As in 1963, the yield of spring wheat in some sections of the country probably is so low that it is not worth harvesting. a In addition, a relatively :large amount of wheat from the crop in 1965 appar- ently is of poor quality because of excessive rainfall during the harvest of winter wheat and because of the severe drought in the major spring wheat areas. 25X6 ^ Soviet officials have recently disclosed that the USSR has a need for imports of quality wheat in addition to the amounts already contracted for. Such imports would be required if Soviet leaders decide that per capita availabilities of wheat are to approxi- mate the average for the nine-year period 1954/55 through 1962/63. Thus it seems likely that the USSR could be in the market for additional imports of wheat. Weather during the 1965 growing season did not affect the nongrain crops in the USSR as adversely as it did the grain crop. Production of potatoes, vegetables, sugar beets, cotton, and sunflowers will be below the record or near-record levels of 1964, but in general. will be signifi- cantly better than the relatively poor crops in 1963. Overall production of livestock products in 1965 is expected to reach a new peak, representing a marked improvement over the relatively poor performance of this sector of agriculture in 1964. The amount of meat, milk, and eggs produced in 1965 apparently will be about equal to or in excess of previous record levels. Because of a decline in the number of sheep, however, production of wool in 1965 will be somewhat less than in 1964. Currently, prospects for the livestock sector during the coming winter are not as promising as at the same time a year ago. Although supplies of succulent and coarse feeds will be fairly good in the most important livestock-producing areas, the drought in Kazakhstan and Siberia has drastically reduced the production of feed crops and hay in those regions, and some distress slaughtering of animals will probably take place. Furthermore, primarily because of a reduction in the acreage of corn for grain, production of coarse grains (barley, oats, and corn) will be little if any higher than in 1963 and will tend to impede the development of swine and poultry husbandry, Approved For Release 2000/08/29 s C ACRP ,PJ9 01003A002400110001-2 Approved For Rele s 2 0 0 / : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 2. Eastern Europe A bumper harvest of breadgrains !wheat and rye) is currently ex- pected in all countries in Eastern Europe except Albania and Yugo- slavia. The quality of grain in East Germany and Czechoslovakia is down, however, and the high moisture content of grain could result in high storage losses. The production of coarse grains, especially corn, is well below the level of the past two years. A combination of spring floods, lack of sunshine, and drought in the Balkans) has con- tributed to a decrease in acreage and total output of -coarse grains in all countries except. Poland. Thus, in spite of a good harvest of bread- grains, total grain production in Eastern Europe this year will be below that of 1964 and in several countries will be below the 1957-61 average. Production of most fall-harvested crops is expected to be less than in 1964. Planted acreage for the important crops of potatoes and sugar beets is down, and yields have been adversely affected by weeds, un- favorable growing conditions. inset ts, and a shorter growing season. Harvesting of root crops and corn started as much as four weeks late and is overlapping the fall plowing and sowing season for winter grains. The situation is especially serious in the northern countries, where an early winter freeze could catch potatoes and sugar beets in the ground or in open storage. The sharpest drops in the output of potatoes from 1964 levels are expected in Czechoslovakia (45 percent less), followed by Poland (25 percent less), and East Germany (10 percent less). In addition to a lower output, the storage quality of potatoes is unfavorable, and the sugar content of beets is below normal, The production of fruits and vegetables will be smaller this year in all countries, with the most serious shortfalls occurring in the major producing and exporting countries of Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria. These crops were first damaged by a wet spring and then by a drought that set in about mid-May in parts of Rumania and Bulgaria and con- tinued through September. State procurement of fruits and vegetables has fallen significantly below plan throughout Eastern Europe in spite of higher prices. A favorable aspect of Eastern European crop production this year was the relatively good harvest of forage crops and good pasture. Although the quality of the hay may have been adversely affected by delayed harvesting and frequent rains in northern areas, output was better than a year ago. This output has been reflected in higher levels of production and procurement of milk and meat than a year ago in Approved For Release 0 0/ 8 9 ? CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CI RpP 9~T0 ,003A002400110001-2 Poland, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia. A shortfall in the output of feed grains, fodder roots, and potatoes, however, will adversely affect the outlook next year for meat production -- especially pork -- and the capability of maintaining current numbers of hogs and poultry in 1966. Officials in East Germany and Bulgaria have already ex- pressed concern that increased production of meat has been at the expense of livestock numbers. Prospects for any improvement in the food supply before next year's harvest are less favorable than at;this time a year ago.. Con- sumer supplies of green vegetables, fruit, and potatoes are tighter and higher priced thana year ago with no relief in sight. The shortfall in production of concentrated feed probably will not be adequately sup- plemented by imports so that output of livestock products -- for which demand currently exceeds supply -- may drop off in 1966. Thus, unless countries such as East Germany and Czechoslovakia increase imports and the other countries curtail exports of meat, governments may be forced once more to raise retail prices or to take other measures to curtail demand for meat. An excellent wheat harvest in Bulgaria, how- ever, should eliminate the bread shortage in that country. Eastern Europe -- including Yugoslavia -- will need to import at least 9 million mt of grain during 1965/66. (In 1964/65 the countries of Eastern Europe imported. about the same amount, nearly 6 million tons of which came from the Free World.) Although the good bread- grain harvest this year reduced import requirements for wheat, in- creased need for feed grains will more than offset this reduction. In view of negotiations now in progress with Free World countries and expected deliveries from the Soviet Union and possibly Rumania, it is estimated that the Eastern European countries have already largely satisfied their wheat import requirements for 1965/66. Of the 1. 5 million to 2 million mt of feed grains likely to be obtained in the Free World, however, only 320, 000 mt have been purchased to date, com- pared with 1 million mt purchased in 1964/65. These data suggest that Eastern Europe -- especially Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and East Germany -- may be more interested in purchasing feed grains, soybeans, and soybean meal from the United States, rather than wheat. The inability or unwillingness of the USSR to deliver suf- ficient quantities of milling quality wheat to East Germany and Czecho- slovakia, however, could increase their interest in US wheat. Rumania will be the only net exporter of grain (mostly corn) but at a lower level than in 1964/65, Approved For Release 2000/08/295:_. 1 ; RRPJ91T01003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 S-E-C-R-E-T Imports of Grain by the Communist Countries from the Free World Consumption Years 1963/64 - 1965/66 Preliminary a/ Contracts a/ ------Country__--- IL663 64 1265/66 USSR bl Communist China Eastern Europe 11,066 5,854 5,638 2,166 5,350 5,913 9,480 J 4,500 4,475 Albania J 120 147 50 Bulgaria 542 261 100 Czechoslovakia 504 746 400 East Germany 503 832 600 Hungary 790 300 275 Poland 2,319 2,266 1,500 Yugoslavia 860 1,361 1,550 Total 22,558 13,429 18,455 e/ a. Based on information available on negotiations, contracts, or ship- ments as of 12 October 1965. b. Including wheat or flour shipped to Eastern Europe, Cuba, and the UAR. c. Including more than 2 million metric tons from purchase agreeane.: signed in 1964/65 but not delivered by 1 July 1965. The delivery schedules of some contracts run shipped by thus 700,000 metric tons may pPe y the (30 June 1966). d. Financed by Communist China. e. Additional purchases -- possibly 2 million tons each for the USSR and for Eastern Europe and other million tons for Communist China -- may bring this total up to some 23 million tons. Approved For Releases2Q0W0W/29 .:ZCIA-RDP79T01003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : cIA_~D 79Tq1003A002400110001-2 Production of Grain in Communist Countries 1963, 1961, 1965 Preliminary, and Annual Average Million Metric Tons USSR Total, grain b Of which: Wheat Eastern Europe Total grain Of which: Breadgrains Communist China Total grain Of which: Harvested in early summer e/ 1965 Preliminary 100 120 [1251 92 [95J 105 [1111 48 58 40 55 54 56.2 54.2 53.5 28 27.3 26.7 27.2 170 to 175 170 to 175 175 174 1964 Annual 1963 Average 41 45 43 N. A. a? 195 - 2 for the USSR and Communist China, and 19577-1 for Eastern Europe. b. Excluding immature corn. The figures in brackets include immature corn converted to grain equivalents. c. Including Albania and Yugoslavia. d. Including tubers on a grain-equivalent basis of 4 metric tons of tubers to 1 metric ton of grain. e. Excluding tubers. Approved For Release 2000/08/29 QkR_PPP9T01003A002400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : S RIR79TO1003A002400110001-2 SECRET Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 CONTROL RECORD FOR SUPPLEMENTAL DISTRIBUTION 25X1A SERIES NUMBER CIA/RR CB 65-61 CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT SECRET DISTRIBUTION TO RC 46 DATE OF DOCUMENT October 1965 NUMBER OF COPIES 286 NUMBER IN RC -- /5- COPY DATE NO.(S) RECIPIENT SENT RETURNED 176 Ret'd by SA/RR 22 Oct 65 177 DDP 3D5339, H q. 25X1A 20 Oct 65 178-181 , O/DDI 22 Oct 65 182 OCR 25 Oct 65 (r '_ 183 St P " 184 CGS/HR O s 1&81, H II 185 186-190 1 1 i~ 192 193-195 196 197 f' // 198 c 199 200 201 d 202-204 205 206 207 H 208 209 210-214 215-240 Filed in St/P/C 25 Oct 65 2 C J C_ _ ~n 25X1A t 2 fo S 0 K _ S b ~_ .~ 2 h~ 6 /Z) z.C ....-, J q dr41 A I c- r CIA-RDP79T01 01-2 Analyst: R/AG Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-Rq~1 7a~ 0Q$A 0110001-2 NOOPpp oved For Release 2QQQ1Qgl-29 : CIA-RDP79T010 SENT RETURNED r ,~ '2 Z 77 c~- 25X1A Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T01003 -Z Approved For Release 2000/08/29. P79T01003A002400110001-2 St/A/DS Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 65-61y;.g*1, culturai Copy No. Recipient 1 .- 5 O/DDT, Room 7E32, Hq. 6 O/DD.1, 7 D/ORR (hand carried by St/P/C, 20 Oct 65) 8 4k 9 DD/ORR (hand carried by St/P/C, 20 Oct 65) * 176 SA/RR (hand carried by St/P/C, 20 Oct 65) 25X1A 10 Ch/E 11 m 13 D/ONE 14 - 19 St/CS 20 St/PR 21 - 27 D/T (1 each branch) 28 a 34 D/R (1 each branch) 35 MRA 36 - 40 D/P (1 each branch) 41 s 46 D/F (1 each branch) 47 St/PS 48 - 53 D/I (1 each branch) 54 - 58 D/A (1 each branch) 59 W 60 GD/OBI 61 - 62 C.D/OBI 63 CD/X/OBI 25X1A 64 - 69 RID/SS/DS, Unit 4, Room 1B4004, Hq. 70 St/P/A 71 St/FM 72 Analyst/Branch (given to R/.ACS on 20 Oct 65) 73 GR/CR 74 BR/CR 75 FB /SR/CR, Room 1G27, Hq. 76 Library/CR 77 IPI/CR 78 Archival File- Records Center 79 Chief, OCR/FDD 80 DCS/SD 81 OCI/SA/R, Room 5G19, Hq. 82 DDT/CGS, Room 7G00, Hq. 83 - 84 DDI/CGS/HR, Room 7G00, Hq. 85 DDT/RS, Room 4G39, Hq. GROUP 9 Approved For Release 200 l~l IRE WOW 1003AO02400110001-2 ,. p? dowagradUng and deelay ff[cation Approved For Release 2000/08W-. k-RDP79T01003AO02400110001-2 Copy No. Recipient 86 - 88 D/OSI 89 D/OBI 90 DD/S&T/SpINT 91 - 92 OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, 1000 Glebe (1 - OTR/SIC) 25X1A 93 NPIC/CSD/REF, Room 15518, 94 NSAL, Room 3W136, Ft. Meade (via GB31, Hq. ) 95 - 103 OCI Internal (via SDS/DD/OCR) 25X1A 104 - 112 NSA-(via GB31, Hq. ) 113 - 114 National Indications Center, Room 1E821, Pentagon 25X1A 115 - 126 State, INR Communications Center, Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg. 127 - 130 USIA, IRS/A, Room 1002, 1750 - Pennsylvania Avenue, N. W., Attn: Warren Phelps 131 - 175 Defense Intelligence Agency, DIAAQ-3, A Building, Arlington Hall Station 177 b W=- 240 St/P/C/RR, Room 4F41, Hq. (held In St/P'/C, 25 Oct 655), 241 - j,AS'e-' Records Center Approved For Release 2000/0 , , A-RDP79T01003AO02400110001-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/29 99A6FT79T01003AO02400110001-2 2 November 1965 MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR FROM : Acting Chief, Publications Staff, ORR SUBJECT Transmittal of Material Ituation in Communist Countries Result in Record Grain $m arts, 6Z-to e It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-'- 1g icultu State, INR Communications Center, Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg. Suggested distribution for Embassies in Berlin, Bucharest, Budapest,, Moscow, Prague, Sofia, Warsaw; Belgrade, Geneva, Paris, Rome, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo, London, Canberra, and Ottrtife- 25X1A Attachments: Copies 22.1 58 of CB 65-61 CGS/RB The disscr+,,on re~rut?slad by this memorandum has boon cotnpJgI$ BY% Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : SECRET -1RD PJT9TTO 1003AO02400110001-2 0 n; 'Ind r Approved For Release 2000/08/29 DP79T01003A002400110r~ Project No. Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-61 Agricultural Situation in Communist Countries May Result in Record Grain Imports (SECRET) Responsible Analyst and Branch R/AG RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS i`Ber.lin, Germany -Bucharest, Romania Z='Buda.pest, Hungary oscow, USSR s'"Prague, Czechoslovakia /Sofia, Bulgaria - ViTarsaw, Poland Europe 16 elgrade, Yugoslavia / Bern, Switzerland Bonn, Germany Brussels, Belgium Copenhagen, Denmark Bangkok, Thailand Djakarta, Indonesia vHong Kong Rangoon, Burma Kuala Lumpur, Malaya Saigon, Vietnam Seoul., Korea t,-Singapore, British Malaya vTaipei, Formosa Tokyo, Japan Vientiane, Laos Colombo, Ceylon Near East & South Asia tGeneva, Switzerland Helsinki, Finland The Hague, Netherlands Ankara, Turkey Athens, Greece Cairo, Egypt Lisbon, Portugal Damascus, Syria /'London, England Kabul, Afghanistan Luxembourg, Luxembourg Karachi, Pakistan Madrid, Spain New Delhi, India Oslo, Norway Nicosia, Cyprus /'1?a.ris, France Tehran, Iran (Rome, Italy Baghdad, Iraq Stockholm, Sweden Tel Aviv, Israel Vienna, Austria Beirut, Lebanon Amman, Jordon Jidda, Saudi Arabia Wellington, New Zealand Manila, Philippines ;Ottawa, Canada -Canberra, Australia Melbourne, Australia Approved For Release 2000/ l9 , 25X1A Mexico Guatemala. Panama Brazillia, Brazil Buenos Aires, Argentina Bogota, Colombia Santigao, Chile La Paz, Bolivia Montevideo, Uruguay Caracas, Venezuela Yaounde, Cameroun Leopoldville, Congo Addis Ababa, Ethopia Accra, Ghana Abidjan, Ivory Coast Nairobi, Kenya Monrovia, Liberia Tripoli, Libya Rabat, Morocco Lagos, Nigeria Mogadiscio, Somal Khartoum, Sudan Tunis, Tunisia Pretoria, South Africa Algiers, Algeria Cotonou, Dahomey Dakar, Senegal Bamako, Mali 03AO02400110001-2 ~~ ? decieu~lticail~lt r fir- I RECORD OF REVIEW OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SANITIZATION APPROVAL SUBJECT / . Y~ UD /-1 / C 5'._._ ~~ B~~ BRANCH EXTENSIOON ff1~ v/ SECURITY REVIEW SANITIZING INSTRUCTIONS ITEM DATE INITIALS E 25X1A UNEDITED DRAFT Now F' EDITED DRAFT 25X6^ ELET RELEASABLE TO NO r / tr ~~r-~ t:LrtiJ ( e 3-s SUBSTI UTE 25X1C REMARKS 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X1 C 25X6^ 25X6^ Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification ved Release 2000/,08/29 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400110001-2 ce . emoranaum ? UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT STATINTL DATE: 19 October 1965 FROM : Chief, Agriculture Branch, ORR Source Material used in CB, "Agriucltural Situation in Communist Countries Likely to Require Record Grain Imports". No source material used in the subject report had a classification higher than Secret and none had a label of No Foreign Dissem or Controlled Dissem. Some State Department despatches and telegrams were used but none STATINTL shQ l_d present,any problems with the possible exception of the one we discussed, Moscow Telegram #1189, 7 Oct. 1965? .1 As (Info taken from this telegram is indicated on back of this. memo. ) Approved For Reliease-2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79 Soviet offi is h Ppr~gv~ or. Wa itd0/~8~4~?~ ~2 the uccR or ~mpor s o quality wheat in a it ion to the amount already contracted for. Such imports would be required if Soviet leaders decide that per capita availa- bilities of wheat One to approximate the average for the nine-year period, 1954/55 through 1962/63. Thus it seems likely that the USSR could be in the market for additional imports of wheat. STATINTL Approved For Release 2000/08/29 : CIA-RDP79T01003AO02400110001-2