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November 16, 2016
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April 27, 2000
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November 1, 1965
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Approved For Release 2000/06101: CIDIEr'1003A002400230001-9 NTELLIGENCE BRIEF Copy N' EC''A't'E GF INTELLIGENCE C?ce o esearrch. and Rejorts pproved For Release 2000/06101: CIA-R T3A002400230001 -9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 WARNING This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the espionage laws, Title 18, USC, Sees. 793 and 794, the trans- mission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CWi-ADe7ffD$A002400230001-9 ZAMBIA: THE KANDABWE COAL QUESTION* Zambia's plans to extract coal from the Kandabwe fields in order to lessen the country's dependence on Rhodesian coal seem overly optimistic, especially in the long run. If the Kandabwe fields are ex- ploited throughstrip mining, the proved reserves that could be stripped. would be exhausted within 12 months. Total strip production would be only about 325, 000 tons. ** Underground mining of proved reserves would provide the equivalent of only about 2 year's supply at Zambia' present annual rate of coal consumption. Furthermore, the poor quality of the coal would present additional drawbacks. The calorific value of the coal is much less than that of Rhodesian coal, and therefore about 50 percent more Kandabwe coal would be needed to replace the Rhodesian imports. Moreover, the inferior quality also makes the use of the coal difficult for the railroads, in the thermal plants, and probably in produc- ing blister copper. 1. General The Zambian government contingency planning team in Lusaka is placing increasing reliance on future production of coal from the Kandabwe fields as a way of lessening the country's complete dependence on coal imported from the Wankie collieries in Rhodesia which supplied Zambia with about one million tons in 1964. Contracts have already been let to improve the road from the railhead at Choma -- 47 miles from Kandabwe -- and initial plans to mine 15, 000 tons monthly by March have been increased to 30, 000 tons. Moreover, some consideration has been given to the possibility of raising Kandabwe output to about 90, 000 tons monthly. The prospect of replacing Wankie with Kandabwe coal raises three sets of related questions (concerning mining, quality, and truck transport) which can be only partly answered on the basis of available information. On balance, and with the available data, there are sufficient unresolved problems to cast considerable doubt on the feasibility of the projected Kandabwe operation, especially over the long run. * The estimates and conclusions in this brief represent the best judgment of this Office as of Zb November 1965. ** Tonnages are given in metric tons throughout this brief. Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : C.RDe7101p.UBA002400230001-9 Approved For Release 2000/( /j_r JA-.RRPT9TO1003A002400230001-9 2. The Mining Problem Estimates of Kandabwe coal reserves range from 11 million to 17 million tons, of which only 3 million tons are regarded as proved. The thickness of the seam varies from 7 to 27 feet, much of which is impure. Only the bottom 6 feet of the average seam width of 12 feet is considered worth exploiting. The deposit itself slopes downwards from the outcrop and has an average dip of 20 degrees. However, the inclination increases markedly with depth -- to 40 degrees -- and at the same time the coal seam thins out. The immediate roof consists of carbonaceous shale and shaley coal seams and stringers. Although Kandabwe was not considered strippable in 1963, a subsequent report refers to some strippable coal at depths of 100 to 200 feet -- presum- ably limited stripping along the outcrop, or high part of the bed, to a depth of 100 to 200 feet. It has been concluded that there is very limited potential for strip mining -- only about 10 percent of reserves -- and that a produc- tion rate of as much as Z5, 000 tons monthly would exhaust known proved reserves within 12 months. Furthermore, although details on the charac- teristics of the overburden are not known, the thickness of this cover -- 100 to 200 feet would create a serious problem in stripping. Under- ground mining could also pose major problems. Depending on the mining method used, the roof may well pose formidable difficulties. The roof-and-pillar method would imply a low recovery rate of 50 to 60 percent of coal in the ground and would thus limit recovery to about 2 million tons of proved reserves. Should the probable reserves of between 8 million and 14 million tons prove out, recovery could range between 5 million and 9 million tons. Long-wall mining would require a longer time to reach capacity than would either of the above methods, but ultimate coal recovery would be higher. 3. The Question of Quality Kandabwe coal is decidedly inferior to Rhodesia's Wankie coal. The average ash content of the bottom 6 feet -- the better grade -- is 22 percent, and the calorific value is about 10, 000 _BTU per pound. By comparison, uncleaned Wankie coal averages 14 percent ash and 13, 000 BTU per pound. Because of the lower calorific value of Kandabwe coal and its high ash content, roughly 1. 45 to 1. 50 tons of Kandabwe would be required to replace 1 ton of Wankie. On this basis the amount of Kandabwe-type coal necessary to maintain Zambia on a care-and- maintenance basis, with no copper production, would be about 600, 000 tons per year. Approved For Release 2000/96Li G - ,79T01003A002400230001-9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA, RRP7 Q1 "002400230001-9 There are three major uses for coal in Zambia: to fuel the railroad, to produce smelter copper, and to run thermal electric plants. On the basis of available information, it seems likely that Zambian steam loco- motives would require considerable modification of their fireboxes and grates to use Kandabwe coal. Furthermore, the ash-fusion temperature of Kandabwe coal is not known but could be very critical. A low ash- fusion temperature could give considerable trouble with equipment not especially designed for burning this type of coal -- for example, in the thermal plants. It seems likely that Kandabwe coal could be used in producing blister copper, but with lesser outputs of blister copper per ton of coal. 4. Trucking Kandabwe Coal Thus far, three hypothetical levels of production of Kandabwe coal have been considered: 15, 000 tons, 30, 000 tons, and about 90, 000 tons per month. The trucking of such quantities of coal from the mine to the railhead at Choma would not pose especially difficult problems. The distance is about 47 miles over an average ascending grade of 1. 28 percent, although maximum grades over part of the route may be considerably higher. In the initial stage, coal would be loaded to truck by power shovel. Unloading would be either by dumping on the ground at Choma or into hoppers at the railhead. At a production rate of 15, 000 tons monthly (a movement of 500 tons daily), 50 truck loads at 10 tons each would be required. With a round trip distance of only 94 miles, it is entirely possible for each truck to make two round trips daily, and the total trucks necessary would be 25. A factor of 20 per- cent for truck downtime for maintenance and repair raises the total requirement to 30 trucks. At a production and transport rate of 90, 000 tons, 150 trucks would be required. Fuel requirements. for the trucks are estimated. at a consumption rate of 6 miles per gallon of diesel-"fuel. Monthly fuel consumption. for 15, 000 tons of coal transport would therefore be 80 tons and for 90, 000 tons about 480 tons. Analysts: Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA- fi K9L1L6Q3p4002400230001-9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CS R l lT03AO02400230001-9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 SECRET Analyst: , I/AF (Project 48. 5292) . Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 CONTROL RECORD FOR SUPPLEMENTAL DISTRIBUTION 25X1A SERIES NUMBER CIA/RR CB 65-73 CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT SECRET DISTRIBUTION TO RC 34 DATE OF DOCUMENT November 1965 NUMBER OF COPIES 300 NUMBER IN RC COPY RECIPIENT DATE NO. (S 25X1A SENT RETURNED 8-10 Returned by DD / ORR 30 Nov 65 8-10 I/AF 25X1C 1 Dec 65 176 SA/RR for review for it 3s-- 241-255 DDI ,r ;.?w3 Nov 65 177 _ St/P 2 Dec 65 178 CGS /HR/ Ops 25X1A 11 179 OCR I 180 181-185 // 186 187 f/ 188-190 25X1C 191 192 i 193 /1 194 195 // 196 197-199 200-240 Filed in St P C 2 Dec 65 ' Owl 44 C 0' J 25X1A 25X1A Zo 25X1A '' 1? /0 2 ~. S 25X1A 25X1A 2 -1 :k CL &7y, G z2 -a 3 t9 L, Ap proved For Release 2000/06/01 CIA-RDP79TO1003AO0240 230001-9 2.65 2353 2.65 (13) COP pp NO. C4S ) roved For Release 2000/0cj 1 !(A-RDP79T01003AO02400 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : 003AO02400230001 - Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 St/A/DS Distribution of Current Support Brief No. 65-73, Zarn, bia: T rndabwe Coal Queation -- November 1965 SECRET) Copy No. Recipient 1 - 5 O/DDI, Room 7E32, Hq. 6 O/DDT, 25X1A 7 D/ORR (hand carried - 30 Nov 65) 8 - 10 DD/ORR (hand carried - 30 Nov 65) 0 47 SA/RR (hand carried - 30 Nov 65) 256 Ch/E 11 - 13 D/ONE 14 - 19 St/CS 20 St/PR 21 - 27 D/T (1 each branch) 28 - 34 D/R (1 each branch) 35 MRA & St/PS 36 - 40 D/P (1 each branch) 41 - 46 D/F (1 each branch) 48 - 53 54 - 58 59 - 60 61-62 63 64 - 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 7 O Archi'vaI File S*kRsx D/I (1 each branch) D/A (1 each branch) GD/OBI CD/OBI CD/X/OBI RI.D/SS/DS, Unit 4, Room 1B4004, Hq. St/P/A St/FM Analyst/Branch 1/AF) GR/CR BR/CR FIB/SR/CR, Room 1G27, Hq. Library/CR IPI/CR 79 Chief, OCR/FDD 80 DCS/SD 81 OCI/SA/R, Room 5G19, Hq. 82 DDI/CGS, Room 7G00, Hq. 83 - 84 DDI/CGS/HR, Room 7G00, Hq. 85 DDI/RS, Room 4G39, Hq. Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T01003A002400230Q 1-9 Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TOiO03A002400230001-9 Copy No. Recipient 86 - 88 D/OSI 89 D/OBI 90 DD/S&T/SpINT 91 93 - 92 OTR/IS/IP, Room 532, 1000 Glebe (1 - OTR/SIC) NPIC/CSD/REF, Room 1S518 94 , 95 - 103 NSAL, Room 3W136, Ft. Meade (via GB31, Hq.) OCI Internal (via 104 SDS/DD/OCR) 113 - 112 NSA (via GB31, Hq.) 115 - 114 - 126 National Indications Center, Room 1E821, Pentagon State, INR Communications Center, Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg. 127 131 - 130 USIA, IRS/A, Room 1002, 1750 - Pennsylvania Avenue, N. W., Attn: Warren Phelps 1 6 - 175 Defense Intelligence Agency, DIAAQ-3, A Building, Arlington Hall Station k5-2 7 - 240 St/P/C/RR, Room 4F41, Hq. (hold in St/P/C . 2 Doc 65) - -300 Records Center Approved For Release 2000/06/Q1;, l4-RDP79T01003A002400230001-9 SECRET Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79TO1003AO02400230001-9 7 December 1965 MEMORANDUM FOR: Chief, Dissemination Control Branch, DD/CR FROM Chief, Publications Staff, ORR .SUBJECT Transmittal of Material It is requested that the attached copies of CIA/RR CB 65-73y Zambia: The Ka: dabwe Coal. Queetion, November 1965, Secret, be forwarded ao fo .o : State, INR Communications Center, Room 6527, State Dept. Bldg. Suggested distribution for Embassies in Lc radon, Yaounde? :opol4vi.11eo Addis Ababa, Acera, Abid3an.0 Nairobi,, P+)nrovia, Tripoli, Rabat, Lagos, Mo ,adiecio, O arto-mn,. Tunis, Pretoria, Algiers, Cotonou$ Dakar, and Bamako, Attachments: 19 Copies #200 - #218 of CB 65.73 th COPY 1219 of CB 65 -73 ) Pale, d ,lfC~ c. n S r 6Y: A P. T The dissam,nat c,n r . uosfad by this memorandum has been compiop Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-R P79T010O3Ad 2400230001-9 ET A_ Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : O(A- UP 9T01003A002400230001-9 Project No. 48. 5292 Report Series CIA/RR CB 65-73 Zambia: The Kandabwe Coal Question -- XX November 1965 (SECRI 25X1A Responsible Analyst and Branch , I/AF RECOMMENDED DISTRIBUTION TO STATE POSTS Far East Berlin, Germany Bangkok, Thailand Bucharest, Romania Djakarta, Indonesia Budapest, Hungary Hong Kong Moscow, USSR Rangoon, Burma Prague, Czechoslovakia Kuala Lumpur, Malaya Sofia, Bulgaria Saigon, Vietnam Warsaw, Poland Seoul, Korea Singapore, Bjitish Malaya Europe Taipei, Formosa Tokyo, Japan Belgrade, Yugoslavia Vientiane, Laos Bern, Switzerland Colombo, Ceylon Bonn, Germany Brussels, Belgium Near East & South Asia Copenhagen, Denmark Geneva, Switzerland Ankara, Turkey Helsinki, Finland Athens, Greece The Hague, Netherlands Cairo, Egypt Lisbon, Portugal Condon, England Luxembourg, Luxembourg Madrid, Spain Oslo, Norway Paris, France Rome, Italy Stockholm, Sweden Vienna, Austria Wellington, New Zealand Manila, Philippines Canberra, Australia Melbourne, Australia Damascus, Syria Kabul, Afghanistan Karachi, Pakistan New Delhi, India Nicosia, Cyprus Tehran, Iran Baghdad, Iraq Tel. Aviv, Israel Beirut, Lebanon Amman, Jordon Jidda, Saudi Arabia Ottawa, Canada Mexico Guatemala Panama Brazillia, Brazil. Buenos Aires, Argentina Bogota, Colombia Santigao, Chile La Paz, Bolivia Montevideo, Uruguay Caracas, Venezuela e aounde, Cameroun I7eopoldville, Congo ~.kddis Ababa, Ethopia -Accra, Ghana -Abidjan, Ivory Coast /-Nairobi, Kenya z Monrovia, Liberia t,-Tripoli, Libya ,Rabat, Morocco Lagos, Nigeria ,--Mogadiscio, Somal z-Khartoum, Sudan ,-Tunis, Tunisia Pretoria, South Africa Algiers, Algeria IC`otonou, Dahomey iBtikar, Senegal Bamako, Mali Approved For Release 2000/06/01 : CIA-RDP79T01003 024@O23U001 9 Caw1..Sr.-e f.... antnatir RECORD OF REVIEW OF ORR PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SANITIZATION APPROVAL SUBJECT - AN BRANCH EXTEN ON SECURITY REVIEW SANITIZING INSTRUCTIONS ITEM DATE INITIALS REMOVE f r UNEDITED DRAFT f? {?~,~ 25X1A EDITED DRAFT DELETE 25X1 C SUBSTITUTE 25X1A R / -i/l ! A.~ ~~ c /-~- Rye/ 25X1 C SECRET C GROUP 1 Excluded Item automatic downgrading and declassification