ECONOMIC AND PRODUCTION IMPLICATIONS OF AN ASSUMED SOVIET GUIDED MISSILE PROGRAM 1954 TO 1963

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01049A001900080001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 21, 1959
• Content Type: REPORT

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CIA
!' . ON C M PROD .;T.1- .' IM r~4', At ?j OI AN
.41SSUiv SOVI. P or." .
95L;. to 1963
COLT .9TI(X ON Y' t' V4.=~C-.''b 1,6.&.IYATED
MIR TIM
PE L4L NVF P T E ? 3,9 59 )
C_ mn "'59-3.6
P'rc c:et Bor. 37421-32)
} 1 y 1959
TIES L?8f3i4i. IAW COi' TA.. t -rITFOP-M1fATa.
A ; .TINS' T IV SAXO "NALD '`asks OF
THE U '.f STATES WIT' UT 'a_ MWINc
OF THE ~.a?' Io i ', 1.411S., url 181 U
S3 3 m `(93 AND 79 ., TT 3 CIS SSION a
OR R , , -&rP3 0N Q.
' T ' 'MC;a IN AMY :*.~T-1IM
TO M UL ~.,~.L.'.t.3e.~.~.IZED PFU011 IS PRObUBIT.f~~
BY LAW.
CMWRAT- AGM MY
OffiC'.e Of Reesef;. lch F RCd Rergo bs
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The at of "cables in this contribution provide
.representative costs and production schedules consisteit
Trt th an asr d Soviet gaided missile program based on
the Coordinated Intelligence Assumptions for the 11 SC
Project, 1959?
The methodology used and the liz i.tations prescribed
in CIA/RR IP-634 dated 8 September 1958 remain unchanged
in the preparation of this contribution.
TOP SHCRK
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TABLE I
Numbers of Guided Misailes In Operational Stockpile, by Year, 1954-1963
(Numbers of t iasiles, Cumu1nta.-e at End of Year).
(100 n,.m. )
?x? (200 n.m1. )
8S 3* (300n.m.)
(1yioo n.m.)
~~:~?.619e~
Stockpile
154 1955
3,000 100 200
1p5000 150
750 30 100
400
500
750
1.956
1957
450
350
300
45e
150
200
10
30
SS-6 (1GEM)
7 .(200 n.m. Submarine) 250 .
~v (1.9vvu n.m. Sucm?ine) 150
AS- (55 n.m.)
450
Ira- * (250 n.m.)
700
Ur-to-Air
-0-
AA-2
120000
AA-3
14,000
AA-4
49200
12
19000 69g0o
1,1000 2,900
195ti
1959
1960
1561
196
196;
1;250
2,000
2,750
3,000
3,000
3
00+0
600
1050
1, 500
1'.5100
1; 500
,
1, 500
250
450
6;0
750
750
750
190
300
400 .
400
400
400
10
60
200
320
14.40
560
20
125
375
6 y
375
20
155
250
250
210,
360
33`j
450
2.50
450
450
450
175
527
875
3,300
3, 00
3,600
19600
49300
6p700
396oo
10,500
12,000
12,000
2,900
13,100
23,500
23,500
179600
109400
1,400
4,200
4,200
4;200
TOP S":'
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TABLE I
(Continued)
Number of Guided Missiles in Operational Stockpile, by Year, 1954-1963
(Numbers of Missiles, Cumulative at End of Year)
Surface-to-Air 4round.Launcbed)
i r s
SA-1 (Moscow Sites)
-0-
2,640
7,900
13,400
12,900
8,600
2,600
SA-9
17P500
527
4,618
9,899
15,178
20,459
21,750
13,750
SA-3*
22,500
3,700
11,200
18,250
26
250
SA.4*
27,000
6,800
20,400
,
34,000
Surface-to- i (Naval-Launched)
SA--6
(Naval)
1,300
150
450
850
1,150
450
1
SA-7
(Naval)
700
100
400
,
1,000
,W appearing in ly,o assumptions - repeated here as Oasis' for costing.
- TOP SECRET
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TOP SECRET
Number of Operational vita Deployed and Equipped
with 4issiles, by Year., 195441963
(Number of Units, Cumulative at End of Year)
161
8u ?c cco tQ>Surface BaUietic
68~.1
100 n.m.)
200 n.m.)
S 3
(300 nem.)
SS:T 4 . ('r,00 n m. )
50-5 (1-,loo n.m.)
'm6` (IcB )
Surfe*toPace Naval
85i.7 200 n.m. Submarine)
SS-;,8 (1,,000 nom. Submarin
Aix-to-Surface
A=1 (55 n.m. )
2 t250.n.m,
,
9
17
9
1..
3
4
2
11
2
22
4 10 23 36
1 4 7
67 90 90 90
35
6o
6v
30
30
15
15
440
40
44
5d;
62
36
r:6
10
13
90
90
105
175
AA-1.
1.20 360 480 480 450 200
"2
120 360 600 840 1,030 1,320 1,520 1,520
LW- S? I'
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TOP am?=
TA=, I
(Continued)
Number of Operational Units Deployed and Nquipped
with Missiles, by year, 1954?1963
(Number of Units, Cumulative at .End of year)
NIN 11-5-58
Test
1
1
1957
a59
161
1963
X43
360
1,640
2,940
2
940
2
.200
1
ju 4
200
,
600
j
600
3600
Surface (Q?ound.Lauzici e )
SA-1
11
33
56
54
36
u
SA2
4
35
75
115
155
165
104
SA-3
25
75
125
175
SA=4
50
150
250
Suri'ace-to*Air (Naval-Launcbed)
YrYM
SA6
Destroyers
1
7
13
'9
25
Cz'dsera
1
1
2
2
2
SA-7
Cruisers
1
4
10
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TOP SCI
TABLE in -,
Sumary of Offensive Missile ProductlonR and Units
Deployed by Fissile and Year, 1954-1963
NIE 1145-58
YDnthly
Missile
Production
at Peak
Number
of
months
at Peak
Desi~tion
Rate-
Rate
1954
1
1 25
956
i9
85-1
Missiles Produced
30
112
288
4oo
500
(100 floU.)
Units Deployed
1
3
5
8
SS..2
Missiles Produced
42
24
50
150
200
200
(200 aaaiai;)
Units Deployed
1
2
3
3
85-3
(
Missiles Produced
30
32
68
75
75
350 nemo)
Units Deployed
1
1
1
5s-4
Missiles Produced
11.
39
24
105
(700 n m. )
Units Deployed
2
9
88.5
Missiles Produced
(1,100 namp).
Units Deployed
SS-6
Missiles Produced
36
(IVBd)
SS??
Units Deployed
Missiles Produced
24
Sabi
Converted Submarines
New Conventional
Zubmarim-a
1 1 1960 1961 1962 U- Totals
500' 700** 700
8 15 15
200' 500>'
3 9
500
7.5 225;c 225
4 4
132 132" 110
10 11 8
24 3..o
12 . 7
40
3
48
3
116
4
400
3600
5
1800
30
125
900.
2
3.5
500
40
1.44
t44
144.
710
12
12
12
56,
300
300*
300
1030`
25
25
25
8?.
116
310
4
14
2?
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TOP SCRR
'1:+ ill
(0On#. try)
Su
ry of Offensive missile production* a4 Units
Deployed by W-saile and Year, 1954-j963
! 1 U 157;13
nthly
Missile
Production
at Peak
Number
or
Months.,
et Peek
Rate
R
ate
1954 1956 19
L_9`49
1960
-1961
196P
tosilt?s Producet
40
(i,ooo nom.
Sub.)
Submarines Deployed
3
3
50
3
.34
3
V, G
13
uryv6a bbkA54il~
~'1
15t
(55 no
Aircraft l Zioyec
,
150 300
150
.
22 45
23
boo
90
(250 Sl
1
Ai
RR
GH.
.
re
raft Deployed
262
525
25
1312
35
70
, C;
175
Production iii
g rea in this table re e;nt total prcducLion which, in addition to operat1onal, deliveries (shown in Table T a- lows ~??? static and laboratory tests 4= e o c __ y producty -on alipnage, other degradation of sal t es and ssia+.R ,. ): laws for ss2ler~
'~ expeItdCd for wr nIng ^00
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TOP BMRRT
monthly
Miesile
Production
at Peak
Rate
Bu ry of Defensive Missile Production and Units
Deployed by Fissile aid Year, 1954-1963
Yr
of
Months
at peak
Rate
Missiles Produced
Q,dreraft Deployed,
280
18
isailes Produced
Aircraft D lcyed
280
72
AA-3
Mdsailea Produced.
Aircraft Deployed
1,150
AA-4
Missiles Produce,
Aircraft Deployed
420
Kissil.ea Produced
580
24
3,470
Units Deployed (Taco,)
~?
Missiles Produced
Units Deployed
560
42
sr N3
Missiles Produced
Unite Deployed.
800
36
1,680 3,360 1,680
120 240 120
6,720
4{30
1,68 3,360 3,360 .3,360 3,360 3,360 2,810 21,290
120 240 240 240 240 240 200 1,520
3,700: 0 13, 50013,800 31,000
360 1,280 1,300 2,940
2,500 5,000 7,500
200 4oo 600
6,940 6,940
2 23
675 5,231 6,759 6,759 6,759 1
690
,
,
4 31 4O 40 40 10 165
800 9,600 9,600 9+600 33,600
5'- 50 17
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1954 1955 56 1957 193.
-959 1960 161 1962 1.963 Totals
17,360
56
27
879
 1 X15-
Pear
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TOP S
St ry of Defensive Nkiesile Production and Lets
Deploys red by Missile and Year., 1954-1963
Ra",
Mnthly
Missile
Production
at Peak
Neer
of
Mont
at Peak
Rate 1954 1955
~7- r -,6
(a .):
SA-7
(Naval)
kriia?silo; : od ceii ,450
Units Deployed
~sir~s'k ~~ ?'.rte ?uc
Destroyers Deployed
Cruisers Deployed
Missiles Produced
Cruisers Deployed
30
300
1
1
8,700 17,4oo 17A0.0 439500
50 100 100 250
-6n-
6
1
c)
6
1,740
25
2
120 360 720 19200
1 3 6 10
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TOP SECRET
Cc r aar 3 e on of Total Cost of N ESC Project 1959 Program and Projected
Soviet Military EgPenditure, by Year, 1954-1963
(Billions of 1957 DJo )
195-4
8955
1956
1.95'
19
1959
1960
1961
196,
1953
IBSR Military
E sendi tures
41.5
43.2
43.1
40.3
41.0
44.4
47.9
51.6
54.3
55.8
NC 1959
pirov=
0.4
8
1.1
1.4
2.5
5.0
8.1
10.3
12.2
14.3
IC 1959
Program
pe?rNacen`t of
DILlit ry
ndi`? rres
1.0
1.9
2.6
3.5
6.1
11.3
16.9
20.0
22.3
25.6
Total Costs of MOO Project 1959 Program
by Category of Missiles
(B111-ions of 195`Z DoLlars)
3w?faoe- a. r
Initial
Invest nt
Operating Percent of
Cosh:
Total
Recrund-lammehed
13.0
5.4
18.4
~.7
Bw a -to.hir
1..8
0.4
2.2
3.9