USSR: TRENDS IN TRADE WITH THE MIDDLE EAST AND SOUTH ASIA

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP79T01098A000100020001-3
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
C
Document Page Count: 
34
Document Creation Date: 
November 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 28, 2000
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
April 1, 1973
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP79T01098A000100020001-3.pdf1.24 MB
Body: 
Approved For Relea OAWk5i1V 1 A RDP79T01098A000100020001-3 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY office of Economic Research USSR: Trends in Trade with the Middle East and South Asia Classified by 015319 Exempt from general declossificotion schedule of E.O. 11652 exemption category 56(1),(2),(3) Automatically declossified on Date I cpossbfe to Determine ER RP 73-2 April 1973 Copy No. 49 Approved For Releas"I~1~,l I IALDP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 USSR: Trends in Trade with the Middle East and South Asia 1. Soviet trade with the countries of the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) has grown fifteen- fold since 1955 to more than US $2 billion annually. Most of this growth has stemmed (a) directly from the flow of goods under Moscow's aid program, and (b) indirectly from the secondary economic relation- ships generated by the aid program. Almost $5 billion, or about 30% of Soviet-MESA trade since 1955, have been directly connected to an estimated $3 billion of Soviet exports of aid goods and nearly $2 billion of repayments for Soviet aid. 2. The leading partners in this trade are, in order of rank: Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, and Tur- key. The commodity composition of the trade features the exchange of Soviet machinery, ferrous metals, fuels, and grain for MESA agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs. In recent years, Soviet aid deliv- eries have increased more slowly than total Soviet Note: Comments and queries regardin this paper are 25X1A welcomed. They may be directed to of the Office of Economic Research, Code 143, Extension 6716. Approved For Release3 Q Q f) i p DP79T01098A000100020001-3 Approved For Releaceo200J&5/4C=DP79TO1098A000100020001-3 exports to MESA. Nonetheless, exports of machinery and equipment, the category which includes most Soviet aid deliveries, have remained high, indi- cating a growing acceptance of Soviet non-aid goods in aid-receiving countries. 3. As for Soviet imports, the share of agri- cultural raw materials and foodstuffs has declined from about 80% in 1964 to about 60%, whereas the share of manufactured goods and energy fuels has climbed to 40%. Moscow is importing growing quanti- ties of MESA industrial and consumer goods to meet some of its domestic requirements and to help aid recipients use the excess capacity of Soviet-aided plants. 4. The economic growth of MESA countries, their geographic proximity to the USSR, the commercial ties the Soviet aid program has helped establish, and the expansion called for in new trade agreements all point toward continued growth of Soviet trade with MESA countries. Moscow's extension of more than $1 billion in new economic aid to this area over the last two years also will contribute to the growth of Soviet exports and keep the machinery and equipment category at least at the present level. Soviet imports will grow as the level of repayments Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDp P79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 rises. An increasing share will be in the form of gas and oil from Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Discussion Introduction 5. Much of Soviet trade with the less developed countries (LDCs) during the past 18 years has been generated by Moscow's aid program. The major trad- ing partners also are the major aid recipients. During most of these years, the aid program frequently determined the composition of trade of the larger aid-receiving countries. Since the mid-1960s, how- ever, there have been noticeable changes in the character of that trade. Soviet machinery and equipment, initially aid generated, have become increasingly accepted for their own sake in LDC markets. Soviet purchases of LDC exports have been shifting toward raw materials and goods produced in newly created plants. These latter goods are generally not marketable in the West. This paper examines the growth and changes in Soviet trade with countries of the Middle East and South Asia (MESA), the area that accounts for most Soviet-LDC economic relations. Text and appendix tables provide de- tailed statistical data on Soviet-MESA trade. Approved For Release 8 Tff i iff P79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 Overview of Soviet Trade and Aid 6. Soviet trade with the LDCs grew rapidly after Moscow launched its aid program in the mid- 1950s. During 1955-60, trade more than tripled. By 1971, it had tripled again, reaching about $2.8 billion. MESA trade grew even faster, quadrupling in both periods and totaling more than $2 billion in 1971 (see Table 1 and Tables-A-1 and A-2). USSR: Trade with Middle Eastern and South Asian Countries MESA Trade Soviet-MESA Trade as a Percent of Total Soviet-LDC Soviet Soviet Soviet-LDC Trade I Total Imports Exports Trade 1955 294 127 58 68 43 1956 448 255 118 137 57 1960 901 525 280 245 58 1965 1,756 1,142 489 653 65 1970 2,591 1,870 829 1,040 72 1971 2,793 2,028 - 926 1,102 73 I Value of identified trade. Unspecified trade, virtually all of which consists of Soviet exports to the LDCs, is believed to represent largely military-related deliveries. Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. MESA trade rose from about 45% of Soviet-LDC trade in 1955 to nearly 75% in 1971. 7. The dominance of MESA countries in Soviet- LDC trade is reflected in the Soviet aid program as well. Nearly 80% of about $17 billion of Soviet Approved For Releas 6D 7 ~ RLDP79T01098A000100020001-3 COIN' IDE FIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 economic and military aid obligated since 1954 has been extended to MESA countries. About $6.4 billion of economic aid has been committed to these areas -- more than 550-6 to Afghanistan, Egypt, and India -- and $6.8 billion of military aid -- more than 70% to Egypt, India, and Iraq (see Table 2) Table 2 USSR: Economic and Military Aid Extended to Middle Eastern and South Asian Countries 1 1954-72 Percent of Percent of Total Total Million US $ LDCs MESA Total LDCs 8,320 100 .... Total MESA 6,370 77 100 Afghanistan 825 10 13 Egypt 1,195 14 19 India 1,610 19 25 Iran 600 7 9 Iraq 555 7 9 Pakistan 390 5 6 Syria 320 4 5 Turkey 530 6 8 Other 345 4 5 Million US $ Percent of Total LDCs Percent of Total MESA 8,475 100 .... 6,765 80 100 455 5 7 2,685 32 40 1,230 15 18 480 6 7 1,000 12 15 65 1 1 715 8 11 I Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 8. Economic aid enters the trade stream as Soviet exports of investment goods for its projects and as repayments of Soviet credits by LDC exports.' The rate of flow depends on the pace of project lemenLation, the terms of credit repayment, and 1. 1.1ilitary aid deliveries are not considered here, because they are. not part of the economic resource flo?,?. to the LDCs and are not reflected in trade data. Approved For Release qQ j i R -7 PMT01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 the recipient's ability to meet those terms. The Soviet economic aid generally is repaid over 8-12 years at 2.5%-3% interest; the military debt in 8-10 years at 2%-2.5% interest. Thus, Soviet aid has directly increased trade with MESA countries by (a) the amount of economic aid delivered under credit, and (b) the amount of goods imported by the USSR as repayment for both military and economic aid.2 About 30% (almost $5 billion) of Moscow's total trade with MESA countries since 1955 has been aid generated. Economic Aid Disbursements Generate Ex2orts 9. Aid disbursements accounted for an estimated $3 billion of Soviet exports to MESA countries dur- ing 1956-71 and contributed substantially to the export growth in the early years.3 They totaled $10 million in 1956, increased to $90 million by 1959, and averaged about $220 million annually dur- ing 1961-65 (see Table 3). By 1964, Soviet economic aid deliveries accounted for one-half of Soviet 2. It is assumed that the two-way flow of goods is in addition to the commercial flows and would not have occurred if the aid program did not exist.. 3. Disbursements cover only credit deliveries, as Soviet trade data do not include grants. However, the magnitude of Soviet grants is small, and only Afghanistan has received a sizable share of such Soviet aid -- $145 million. Approved For Release 8gjgWj. fDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 USSR: Exports and Aid Deliveries to Middle Eastern and South Asian Countries -----_--~ --- Million US $ --- Total Soviet Exports to MESA Countries ----- Soviet Aid Deliveries to MESA Countries Aid Deliveries as a Percent of Soviet Exports Total 9,067 3,050 34 7 1956 137 10 35 14 1057 1958 254 312 85 27 1959 238 90 38 1960 245 60 24 1961 356 110 31 1962 396 180 45 1963 554 260 47 1964 589 295 260 50 40 1965 1966 653 720 285 40 1967 792 245 31 1968 754 265 35 1969 925 275 30 1970 1,040 295 28 1971 1,102 300 27 exports to MESA countries. Although the rate of increase slackened thereafter, aid deliveries in the last half of the 1960s still averaged about $270 million annually and reached almost $300 million annually during 1970-71. Because total exports rose much more rapidly, aid-generated deliveries had declined to 27% of total exports by 1971. Repayments Increase Soviet Imports 10. Nearly $1.7 billion -- 30% -- of Soviet imports from MESA countries during 1960-71 were generated by aid repayments. Although not significant until the early 1960s, aid repayments totaled $125 Approved For Release 2C,Q H6 ,q j. P79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 Million in 1964, jumped to $170 million in 1968, and rocketed to $325 million in 1971 (see Table 4). Table 4 USSR: Import, and Aid Repayments by Middle Eastern and es i ian Countr h A s Sout Total Soviet Imports from Million US $ Repayments Estimated MESA Repayments as a Percent A4ESA Countries Total Economic Military of Imports Total 5,999 1 ,6 95 4r 935 20 760 25 28 16 1960 280 ~ 45 20 25 15 1961 252 0 80 25 55 33 1962 241 8 90 25 65 28 1963 326 5 RO 30 0 125 4 1964 41 0 50 60 22 1965 489 11 140 70 70 27 1966 510 35 85 70 27 1967 506 1 1 70 115 55 31 1968 5 r ll5 65 6 685 150 30 1969 829 250 175 75 3.5 1970 1971. 926 325 190 135 In 1971 they were about seven times the 1960 level, and since 1967 have accounted for about one-third of total Soviet imports from MESA countries. Comp osition of Trade 11. Machinery and equipment, a category et aid deliveries, comprised more includes most Sovi than one-half of Soviet exports to MESA countries during 1955-71. In 1971, it totaled more than $600 million and accounted for 550 of Soviet exports (see Table A-3). Metals, wood products, and fuels represented another 20%. Soviet grain exports have Approved For Release 20K/ fjfr.)9I4qt7,9T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 been significant in some years, their size depending on the Soviet crop. During 1967-71, grain shipments varied between practically zero and nearly 10% of total Soviet exports to MESA countries. 12. The machinery and equipment category is particularly important for Moscow's major aid re- cipients. In 1964, for example, it represented about 75% and 70%, respectively, of Soviet exports to India and Egypt. Even though these shares have declined in recent years upon completion of large aid projects, they remain sizable for both countries as well as for the LDCs as a whole. 13. Whereas aid deliveries to MESA countries have remained almost constant, commercial sales of capital goods have increased rapidly. Machinery and equipment previously sold on deferred payment have created repeat sales of spares and replace- ments, have dispelled many inhibitions against Soviet products, and have increased demand for non- aid Soviet goods. Moreover, the purchase of Soviet equipment represents a low opportunity cost to MESA countries because the goods used in repayment generally are not marketable in the West. Soviet commercial sales almost tripled during 1964-71. By Approved For Release; /~1PN- JNF DP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENT AL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 1971, they comprised nearly three-fourths of total Soviet exports, compared with one-half in 1964. 14. Soviet imports from MESA countries have been dominated by cotton and other agricultural raw materials and by foodstuffs (see Table A-4).. In some years these categories accounted for 80%-85% of Soviet imports. Recently, however, a rapid in- crease has occurred in the share of manufactured and semi-manufactured goods and energy fuels. Imports of MESA manufactures totaled $285 million in 1971, four times the 1964 volume, and more than 30% of total Soviet imports from MESA countries. Imports of fuel totaled about $70 million, compared with almost nothing in 1964. MESA countries now supply the USSR with all of its LDC imports of machinery and equip- ment, tires, jute products, cotton. fabrics, clothing, furniture, and natural gas. 15. These new products, as well as the tradi- tional exports, not only help repay aid debts to the USSR but also represent growing supplementary sources to meet Soviet domestic requirements. One Soviet author, for example, states: The resources received in redemp- tion of the credits and in payment of interest are utilized by Soviet foreign trade organizations for the purchase in Approved For Release("V f ifl4fRP79T01 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 India of tea, wool, jute, coffee, tobacco, as well as rolled ferrous metal, products of engineering plants and manufactured consumer goods. The Arab Republic of Egypt redeems Soviet credits with such traditional Egyptian exports as cotton, yarn, fabrics, and rice as well as the products of enterprises built with Soviet assistance -- ferrous metals, stampings, parts of automobiles and tractors, and other goods. (D. Chertkov, "The USSR and Developing Countries: Economic Relations," International Affairs, August 1972, p. 59) Along the same lines, another author points out: Soviet purchases of their tradition- al exports and of products of their young national industries are of great importance for this group of countries. Our economic ties with these countries have also begun to play a greater role in solving the Soviet Union's national economic tasks. Our increased purchases in these countries and the delivery of their products in repayment of Soviet credits enable the USSR to organize a better supply of many types of raw materials for its industry and to satisfy the needs of its population for food- stuffs and consumer goods more fully. (V. Smirnov, "To Our Mutual Advantage and in the Interest of the Economic Independence of the Developing Countries," USSR Foreign Trade, December 1972, p. 27) Major Trading Partners 16. Since the mid-1950s, Egypt and India have been Moscow's largest Third World trading partners. Together they have received 40% of Moscow's economic and military aid commitments. More recently, Soviet aid to Iran has risen substantially, with trade Approved For Releast 1 : I DP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 following. In 1971 these three countries accounted for one-half ($1.4 billion) of Soviet-LDC trade and about 70% of soviet-MESA trade. Egypt 17. Soviet-Egyptian trade increased more than sixfold between 1955 and 1957 and reached $193 million even before sizable economic aid was ex- tended (see Table 5). Soviet imports led the Table 5 USSR: Trade with and Aid to Egypt ' f Estimated Aid Repayments Million US $ Estimated Aid Deliveries Total As a t Million US $ Percen Total Soviet- Egyptian Trade Soviet Exports Soviet imports Million US $ Percent of Soviet Exports Total of Soviet Economic Military Iq'S 26 11 15 50 .... 1956 89 38 82 111 .... .... l .... Negl. Negl 1957 193 107 Negl. Negl. . Ncg 20 N 22 5 1 1958 88 15 17 20 eg' 20 17 88 93 20 1 . Neg 81 18 195,.q 121 15 21 2 20 N ] 21 1960 191 70 96 30 20 eg . 5 45 68 1901 205 109 73 55 53 50 5 45 40 176 1962 103 124 85 63 50 15 45 48 59 2 1963 259 135 124 60 39 60 20 20 25 1964 278 1 9 163 55 26 40 20 20 27 1965 5 372 0 2~ 150 80 40 40 20 14 1966 349 199 145 90 32 20 30 .... 18 1967 426 281 80 40 30 18 1968 369 198 171 40 19 40 0 40 .... l 21 6 238 228 6 . 65 Neg 1969 46 311 45 12 65 35 30 1970 674 363 70 18 100 -- 1971 715 381 334 ----- Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. growth, as Moscow quickly purchased a large part of Egypt's surplus cotton. By 1971, Soviet-Egyptian trade of $715 million was 35% of Soviet-MESA trade and 45% of Egypt's total tr_ade.. Approved For Release 200( 1 I gWRT01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 18. Although Soviet exports to Egypt rose seven- fold between 1955 and 1959, they did not begin to show the impact of Soviet aid until after 1960. In 1958 and 1960 the USSR committed $500 million for various industrial facilities and the Aswan High Dam. As deliveries for these projects accelerated, exports jumped from $70 million in 1960 to $209 million in 1965. During 1962-68, years of the most extensive Soviet project construction, aid deliveries comprised about 40% of Soviet exports to Egypt- 19. Since the end of 1967, aid drawings have declined, but Soviet exports have generally risen rapidly. Deliveries of machinery and equipment also have increased, indicating the growth of a non-aid Egyptian market for these goods. In relative terms, however, they have declined from about 70% of Soviet exports to Egypt in 1964 to 45% in 1971. Soviet oil exports have expanded under an arrangement caused by the closure of the Suez Canal. Oil is delivered to Alexandria in exchange for Egyptian oil from the El Morgan fields. Egypt also has taken increased amounts of such Soviet food products as fish, sugar, and vegetable oils. The balance of Soviet exports has been mostly ferrous and non-ferrous metals and wood (see Table A-5). Approved For Release 26Ol69-/ICI! kbP-,79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00100020001-3 20. Except for the mid-1950s, when the present Soviet-Egyptian economic relationship developed, Soviet imports remained stagnant. Only aid repay- ments kept them at the existing levels. During 1962-66, they represented about 40% of Soviet imports from Egypt. In 1969, however, imports jumped sharply from $171 million to $228 million and reached a peak of $334 million in 1971. Aid repayments did not play an important role in this growth, particularly during 1967-70, when Moscow granted Egypt a mora- torium on military repayments. The share has begun to rise again, as the moratorium has ended and economic aid repayments are increasing. In 1971, repayments totaled $100 million. 21. Although traditional goods such as cotton, rice, and other agricultural products still account for the larger part of Soviet imports from Egypt, their share has been declining. During 1957-62, cotton accounted for about 95% of these imports and almost all of the aid repayments. By 1964, manu- factured and semi-manufactured products -- almost all of it cotton yarn -- accounted for 22% of the total. In 1971, manufactures, largely from Soviet- built plants, accounted for 32% of total imports Approved For ReleaseMW?fl*1 r- .f fDP79TO1O98AOOO1OOO2OOO1-3 M, YA CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A000100020001-3 (see Table A-6). Less than one-half was cotton yarn. Other products included aluminum products, rolled steel, wire, automobile stampings, clothing, fabrics, and footwear, not imported at all in 1964. 22. Recent protocols indicate that such imports will continue to grow and diversify. Soviet imports of such consumer goods as furniture, leather goods, liquor, and rugs alone are scheduled to rise from $45 million in 1973 to $115 million in 1975. In addition, industrial products such as tractors, steel, and heavy cargo ships also will increase. Their value to the USSR is pointed out in a Soviet publication: Practical experience has shown that assistance in creating and developing Egypt's export economic branches and, in particular, the branches which turn out goods of interest to our national economy, is a most effective form of co-operation between our countries. At present, the Soviet Union is providing Egypt with technical aid in expanding the Helwan Iron and Steel Mill and in building an aluminum works (Nag Hammadi), a ferro- silicon alloys plant, and a phosphorus factory. The Helwan Mill not only meets already Egypt's needs in many kinds of rolled metal, but also supplies essen- tial amounts of it to the USSR. The shipyard in Alexandria built with Soviet aid. now fulfills orders of Soviet foreign trade organizations. Soviet economic and technical aid in electrifying the Egyptian countryside, developing desert lands, and supplying Approved For Releas~(~Q~(,ff EDP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 it with agricultural machinery, ferti- lizer, and chemicals will make it pos- sible for Egypt to boost considerably agricultural production and exports, including deliveries to our country. (R. Klekovsky and V. Lutskevich, "Soviet-Egyptian Trade on the Upgrade," USSR Foreign Trade, June, 1972, p. 19). India 23. The USSR accounts for 10% of India's foreign trade and is New Delhi's second largest trading partner, far behind the United States. Soviet-Indian trade totaled a record $413 million in 1971 and continued to rise in 1972. Trade accelerated almost immediately after 1955, when Moscow agreed to build the Bhilai steel mill. Soviet exports to India rose from $40 million in 1956 to $130 million in 1958. Exports to India. continued to mount as other aid projects were built, reaching a peak of $235 million in 1964. Soviet aid deliv- eries rose from $5 million in 1956 to $125 million in 1964 (see Table 6) 24. Soviet exports to India began to decline in 1965, when aid deliveries dropped. Severe droughts in 1965-66 triggered an economic recession that caused New Delhi to slash public capital ex- penditures. The cutback particularly affected large investment in heavy industrial undertakings Approved For Releas jffgbj~N'JMDP79T01098A000100020001-3 Approved For Release0IO&70~5TT5 "Jj"DP79T01098A000100020001-3 Estimated Aid Repayments Million US Estimated Aid -- - ---------- Deliveries Total Total ------- As a Soviet- Percent Million US $ Percent i S - of Soviet Indian Trade Soviet Exports Soviet Imports Million US $ ov et of Exports Total Economic Military Imports 1955 12 7 4 .... .... .... .... .... .... 1956 59 40 18 5 12 1957 127 85 42 30 35 Negl. NegL ... Negl. 1958 181 130 51 65 50 5 5 .... 10 1959 129 68 61 40 59 10 10 .... 16 1960 116 47 68 15 32 15 15 .... 22 1961 162 95 67 35 37 15 15 .... 22 1962 196 125 72 45 30 20 15 5 28 1963 317 222 95 100 45 25 15 10 26 1964 391 235 156 125 53 50 25 25 32 1965 403 215 188 115 53 55 30 25 29 1966 384 193 191 80 41 80 45 35 42 1967 343 162 181 45 28 95 55 40 52 1968 366 183 183 75 41 100 55 45 55 1969 393 171 221 70 41 100 50 50 45 1970 406 136 270 60 44 130 75 55 48 1971 413 129 284 45 35 145 75 70 51 -- projects comprising the largest part of Moscow's aid program in India. The Indian economy recovered in 1968, but Soviet exports remained below their pre-recession expansion. By 1971, Soviet exports to India had fallen to $129 million. Exports of machinery and equipment fell from $182 million in 1964 to $68 million in 1971 (see Table A-7). Draw- ings on Soviet aid declined from $115 million in 1965 to $54 million in 1971. 17 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 25. Soviet imports from India rose gradually in the early years, then began to accelerate. In 1964, they jumped from $95 million to $156 million, jumped again in 1965 to $188 million, leveled off during the next few years, and then climbed again after 1968 to a peak of nearly $285 million in 1971. Soviet imports from India began to exceed exports to India in 1967 and thereafter constituted the growth factor in Soviet-Indian trade. 26. Much of this growth in Soviet imports was generated by Indian repayments on the military and economic aid debt. New Delhi generally makes these repayments into blocked rupee accounts with the Bank of India which are drawn down as Moscow purchases Indian goods. Thus, Moscow must run a deficit in its trade to enable India to repay its aid debts. Indian repayments began to rise rapidly after 1963 and reached a peak of $145 million in 1971, when they were about equal to the Soviet deficit. Indian debt repayments represented about 25% of Soviet im- ports from India during 1960-65; since then the share has been close to 50%. 27. To help ease the transfer problem, Moscow has accepted increasing amounts of Indian nontra- 18 Approved For Release PJl jPi RPP79T01098A000100020001-3 Approved For ReleacP U 6*i -RDP79T01098A000100020001-3 ditional manufactures. During 1964-71, Moscow's imports of Indian finished and semi-finished goods more than doubled. These goods accounted for 42% of India's exports to the USSR in 1971, compared with 34% in 1964 (see Table A-8). One-third of the increase was in machinery and equipment and rolled ferrous metals, goods not exported anywhere by India prior to 1966. Imports of fabrics and clothing rose eightfold and accounted for about one- half of the $66 million increase in manufactures. The recent Soviet-Indian five-year trade agreement calls for increases in Soviet imports of 15% annually, with manufactured goods to comprise about 60% of total imports by 1976. One innovation under the agreement is the export of Soviet cotton to India for processing and its return to the USSR as cotton textiles. Iran 28. Soviet-Iranian trade did not reach sizable proportions until the onset of Moscow's aid program in the mid-1960s. Trade nearly tripled during 1962-67 and by 1971 had nearly tripled again to $226 million, making Iran the USSR's third largest LDC trading partner. 19 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/6571-5E~I11IRIIP79T01098A000100020001-3 29. With the speed-up of Soviet aid in 1966, Soviet exports began to rise rapidly, doubling in 1967 to $63 million and tripling to $188 million in 1970 during the height of construction on the Isfahan steel mill. Aid deliveries rose from $5 million in 1966 to $40 million in 1968 and reached a peak of $95 million in 1970 (see Table 7). When aid de- Table 7 Million US $ Estimated Aid Estimated Aid Repayments Total Deliveries Total Soviet- Iranian Soviet Soviet Million Percent of Soviet - Million US $ -- As a Percent Trade Exports Imports US $ Exports Total -- Economic Military of Soviet Imports 1960 37 18 19 .... -1961 36, 18 18 .... .... 1 962 32 .... .... 16 16 .... .... .... .... 1063 42 24 18 .... .... 1964 43 22 21 Negl. Negl. Negi. Negl. .... Neg]. 1965 33 15 18 Negl. Ncgl. Negl. Negl. .... Negl. 1966 50 31 19 5 10 Negl. Negl. .... Negl. 1967 94 63 31 15 24 Negl. NegL .... Negl. 1968 128 88 40 40 45 5 5 Negl. 12 1969 218 162 56 75 46 15 5 10 27 1970 257 188 69 95 51 30 15 15 43 1971 266 155 Ill 75 48 50 25 25 45 liveries declined in 1971, so did Soviet exports to Iran. 30. In recent years, as repayments have begun to reach sizable levels, Iranian exports to the USSR have climbed -- from $31 million in 1967 to 20 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 $111 million in 1971. Aid repayments now represent almost one-half of Iranian exports to the USSR. 31. The aid program has altered the composition of trade between the two countries. Machinery and equipment, which represented only about 10o.of Soviet exports in 1964 (see Table A-9), now accounts for three-fourths. The balance of exports consists mainly of cement, sugar, paper, timber, vegetable oil, and transportation equipment. Whereas Soviet imports from Iran in 1964 consisted largely of cotton, leather products, and dried fruit, by 1971, natural gas and manufactured goods accounted for 60% of the total (see Table A-10) . 32. In 1971, the first full year of operation of the Soviet-built natural gas pipeline, almost 6 billion cubic meters of Iranian natural gas, worth $39 million, flowed to the USSR. This represented some 80% of Iran's debt payments to the USSR and accounted for 35% of Soviet imports from Iran. The share will continue to grow as gas deliveries reach a peak of 10 billion cubic meters in 1974, about the time debt repayments also approach their highest level. 33. Manufactured products, negligible in 1964, represented one-fourth of Soviet imports from Iran 21 Approved For Releas ? / M- F DP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A000100020001-3 in 1971. Under a five-year trade agreement for 1971-75, Moscow will increase its imports of foot- wear, fabrics, and other manufactures and import a number of new products, including aluminum. Manufactures are expected to represent about one- third of Iran's exports to the USSR by 1975. A Look at Developments in 1972 34. Although official Soviet trade data for 1972 are not available, all indications point to a growth of Soviet-MESA trade at least equal to the 8% registered in 1971.4 Aid deliveries and repayments will remain high. Large annual increases in trade are called for in trade agreements with Egypt, India, and Iran as well as with other major MESA trading partners. Iranian gas exports increased substantially, and Iraq projects a doubling of trade with the USSR. In April 1972, Baghdad agreed to provide 1 million metric tons of oil, gradually rising to 2 million tons by 1975. Afghanistan, Cyprus, 4. The Soviet Ministry of Trade publication, Vneshnyaya torgovlya SSSR (Soviet Foreign Trade)-is the primary and most reliable source of Soviet trade data used in this paper. The last issue appeared in mid-1972 and covered trade for 1971. The con- clusions of this section are based largely on US Embassy reports, published trade agreements, official LDC publications, and Soviet and LDC periodicals. Approved For Releas0/~1I~AFtDP79TO1098AO00100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 Greece, and Syria expected sizable jumps in Soviet trade. The first trade agreements between Bangla- desh and the USSR called for turnover of more than $20 million in 1972. Approved For Release 2 5Q III5 RflP79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A00010002'0001-3 I PEiNDIX The A-] USSR; Exports In the 11iddle East nod South Asia 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Total 68.4 137.1 253.9 311.7 237.5 2.15.2 356.1 395.8 553.9 9 44 589.4 47 4 653.1 51 6 719.8 73 3 792.2 56.7 751.1 39.7 925.1 44.8 1,010.4 40.0 I ,102.0 50.3 Afghanistan 13.6 18.2 18.1 23.1 15.6 32.0 39.4 39.4 . . . . . 0 2 3 4 5 1 4.6 8.1 C3 pr.is 0.3 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.3 3.4 7 3.3 7 198 . 281 3 . 198 0 . 238.2 363.2 381.3 Egypt 11.0 38.4 92.2 87.7 88.0 60.8 105.7 103.3 135.2 154.8 208. 7 . 38 4 . 31 2 . 7 24 28.8 35.2 33.0 Greece 4.2 7.2 12.2 14.0 12.2 25.8 21.1 27.0 26.7 25.9 36. . 3 . 162 3 . 193 3 171 3 135.9 129.2 India 7.3 40.4 64.7 130.0 68.0 47.1 05.4 124.8 221.9 231.8 215.0 193. 0 . 63 0 . 88 1 . 161 0 157.8 151.8 lr..n 22.4 17,2 31.7 27.4 18.8 18.0 18.1 16.1 23.8 21.8 15.3 31. . . 50 8 . 67 7 66 0 110.1 2 3 20.2 37.3 52.0 43.4 31.0 29.6 35.9 30.7 . . . f roll . 1 1 0.6 .... 0.3 0,6 .... Israel 0.3 5.9 6 . 8 ~~~~ ~~~~ .... .... .... .... .... .... . 7 3 1 3 4 3 3 4 7.1 6.6 .... .... .... 1.7 2.9 . . . . Jordan Kuanil .... .... .... 0.8 .... .... .... 2.1 6,7 7.8 70.6 0 9 ]5A 13 6 15.3 11 6 10,8 15.2 19.3 20.4 Lebanon 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.1 3.3 4.3 4.7 4.3 4.6 6.0 5.6 .... 5.6 0.2 . 0.5 . .... . 0.6 1.2 .... Malta .... 0.3 0.8 .I.] lt2 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 Nepal Pakistan 0'3 0.1 1.7 2.0 1.0 2.4 3.0 5.1 6.2 11.0 13.2 39.0 30.4 36.8 9 3 39.4 6 4 35.7 6 0 28.7 0.0 0.4 .... .... .... 0.7 3.6 2.9 .... . . . Saudi Arabia ? ?? .... .... 79 2 24 4 21 3 21.3 20.2 11.8 8.3 5.6 9.4 Sr, Lanka Syria 0.3 1.6 4.3 0.6 15.2 4.7 15.1 1.0 11.0 1.8 17.0 10.1 5.2 . 13.1 . 12.2 . 12.7 22.7 34.2 42.1 47.8 57 9 46.4 4 62 57.7 76 0 Turkey 7.4 6.0 9.0 9.4 5.6 8.2 5.8 4.3 8.7 9.9 16.7 27.4 28.1 30.8 . . 8 4 . 2 4 Yemen (Aden) ..,, ..,. .... .,,. .,., .... 1.2 1.2 1.4 6.9 7 9 . 1 11 . 8 0 Yemen (Sawa) .... 0.2 1.2 1.2 2.9 3.6 2.1 2.3 3.3 .3.2 8.0 11.8 10.1 0.4 . . . USSR: Imports from the Middle East and South Asia Million US S 1955 1956 1957 1958 ? 1959 1960 1961 1962 . 1963 1964 19G5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Total 58.3 117.8 223.0 263.0 226.0 279.8 252.3 241.4 325.8 409.5 489.4 509.9 505.6 541.8 0 31 688.0 30 6 829.4 34 3 926.1 38 4 Afghanistan 10.9 15.1 20.7 12.7 15.6 16.9 10.7 25.3 19.6 22.7 20.2 18.8 21.3 . 4 3 . 8 5 . 5 9 . 5.4 Cyprus 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.3 3.4 4.3 4.4 145 1 . 7 170 . 228 1 . 310.6 334.1 Egypt 15.3 50.3 110.9 107.1 92.7 121.3 90.2 73.0 21 7 123.E 4 22 123.6 6 24 163.4 28 4 150.0 29.7 . 29.2 . 24.8 . 29.9 34.9 18 Greece 2.3 6.3 9.6 16.9 12.2 19.0 16.9 . . . . 80 8 163 0 4 221 23 4 9 .9 2 India 4.4 18.3 42.0 50.9 GO.G 68.4 66.9 71.7 6 94.8 17 8 155.0 0 21 188.2 1 18 191.1. 19.4 1 . 30.0 . 40.1 . 56.4 . 69. 111.2 l ran 19.1 15.1 18.6 26.4 18.8 19.0 18.3 1 .4 . . . 1 4 4 7 4 6 6.1 Iraq 0.3 .... .... .... 2.3 3.4 4.7 3.8 5.2 2.4 3.7 3.2 5,1 . . Ne l . l Ne . Israel 1.7 1.9 1.9 .... .... 1.0 0.2 .... g . . g .. . Jordan 0.3 0.8 Kuwait Lebanon 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 1.1 5.3 2.4 3.8 3.9 .... 3.4 .... 3.0 0.1 4.2 Negl. 4.1 .... 51 alto Nepal ,,,, .... 0.3 .... .... .... 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 11 1 1.1 23 7 0.7 31 4 1.1 38.9 Pak islau Ncgl. 0.7 5.1 7.4 3.7 4.4 4.3 3.9 9.7 2.7 3.9 29.3 27.0 . . . Saudi Arabia Sr' L..nka 0.2 4.3 4.7 8.6 9.0 6,1 7.3 22.9 19.1 17.3 10.7 16.2 11.1 13,3 16.1 3 29 Syria 1.6 5.4 23.3 6.1 7.8 4.3 0.9 14.2 17.8 18.6 20.3 18.2 20.9 30 0 37.3 29 9 19.2 30 1 . 37 3 Turkey 5.1 6.6 5.4 11.4 4.8 5.2 4.0 5.4 7.1 0.2 18.9 18.8 27.0 . . . 2 0 . N l .... 0.] 0.1 .... 1.0 . cg . Y onlen (Aden) Yemen (Ssn'a) .... 0.9 0.7 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.() 1.0 0.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.3 Approved For ReleasEM (pfyj~ It DP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDE NTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 Million US $ Total 589 Machinery and equipment 373 Metals 43 Wood products 34 hoods 29 Fuels 65 Other 45 Percent 100 63 7 6 5 11 8 Million US $ 1 ,040 594 100 51 58 GIs 169 Percent 100 57 10 5 6 7 16 Million US $ 1,102 604 90 58 77 1 86 187 Percent 100 55 8 5 7 8 17 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Total 410 100 829 100 926 100 Finished and semi-finished goods 72 18 210 29 284 31 Of which: Rolled ferrous metals .... .... 27 3 29 3 Cotton yarn 26 6 32 4 47 5 Bags and packing fabric 2 36 9 38 5 40 4 Fabric and clothing 5 1 85 10 94 10 Fuels I Negl. 40 5 69 7 Traditional products 338 82 549 66 573 62 Of which: Textile raw materials 141 34 265 32 278 30 Raw skins 19 5 41 5 29 3 Foods 121 30 188 23 254 27 I Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 2 Mostly jute. Approved For Release,3 (Fi1J iX7EDP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 1961 1970 1971 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Total 155 100 363 100 381 100 Machinery and equipment 106 68 164 45 171 45 Fuels 9 6 29 8 35 9 Ferrous metals 7 5 25 7 25 7 Nonferrous metals 3 2 7 2 7 2 Wood products 12 8 21 6 25 7 Foods 2 1 10 3 18 5 Other 16 10 107 29 100 26 I Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. USSR: Commodity Composition of Imports from Egypt 1964 1970 1971 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Total 124 100 311 100 334 100 Finished and semifinished goods 27 22 79 25 106 32 Of which: Cotton yarn 26 21 32 10 47 14 Fabrics and carpeting Neg1. Negl. 6 2 7 2 Clothing ... 11 4 12 4 Footwear .... .... 8 3 9 3 Crude oil .... .... 17 5 15 4 Traditional products 97 78 215 69 213 64 Of which: Cotton 72 58 158 51 1.51 45 Rice 19 15 30 10 24 7 Vegetables and fruits 2 2 18 6 24 7 I Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Approved For Release Q f/I I f DP79T01098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 USSR: Commodity Composition of Exports to India 1964 1970 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Million US $ Total 235 100 13G 100 129 100 Machinery and 65 68 53 equipment 182 77 88 Petroleum 11 9 products 14 6 5 4 10 8 Ferrous metals 12 5 8 6 Nonferrous metals 4 2 4 3 4 3 5 3 1 6 4 6 Newsprint 30 23 23 Other2 20 9 25 25 18 -- - L Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 2 Including mostly chemical:: and construction materials. USSR: Commodity Composition of Imports from India I -------- -------19G4 1970 Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent Million US $ Percent 156 100 270 100 284 100 Total 119 42 Finished and semifinished goods 53 34 114 42 Of which: 22 8 20 Rolled ferrous metals 2 1 15 6 9 Fabrics 2 1 20 7 26 Clothing Jute products 36 23 38 14 40 Traditional products 102 65 155 57 165 Of which: 4 8 Textile raw materials 4 18 Tobacco 18 69 10 20 Cashew nuts 33 12 22 Raw skins I Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. Approved For Release ?{0 5j ~ JA 79TO1098A000100020001-3 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 Table A--9 Total machinery and equipment Ferrous lnctals WOOd products USSR: Commodity Composition of Exports to Iran 1964 1970 1971 Million Million Million US $ Percent US $ Percent US $ Percent 22 100 188 100 155 100 2 0 159 85 120 9 9 5 8 2 2 9 3 6 5 14 64 5 3 2 2 9 10 5 19 Because of rounding, components may not add to the totals shown. 2 Mostly chemicals and cement. other 2 USSR: Commodity Composition of imports from Iran Total Finished and semifinished goods 196,4 1970 1971 Million Million Million US $ Percent US $ Percent US $ Percent 21 100 69 100 111 100 Negl. Negl. 23 33 27 24 Of which: 7 10 g Detergent "" .... 7 10 10 Clothing .... "" 6 39 Natural gas . 2 . i 1 "" 00 40 58 9 45 Traditional products Of which: 12 17 Cotton 7 33 Fruits and nuts 3 14 11 16 14 13 10 9 Approved For Release 2CM(IG511I) lf4O#79T01098A000100020001-3 Approved For Release 240E-79T01098A000100020001-3 Approved For ReleasC?Fwd/IK "UAIRDP79T01098A000100020001-3 Analyst: ~5 T 10 g g Approved F~~Ka~J5/SUPPLJ~rAQPD7IT~IBUTTDN000100020001-3 DISSEM: 25 A r 73 STATINTL SERIES NUMBER ER RP 73-2 CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT CONFIDENTIAL DISTRIBUTION TO RC ter- ,T-E S- DATE OF DOCUMENT April 1973 STATINTL NUMBER OF COPIES 50 NUMBER IN RC COPY NO (S) RECIPIENT DATE . SENT RETURNED 1 O/DCI 25 Apr 73 2 3 D/OER DD/OER II II yj 27 Apr 713 4 SA/.ER & SA/RCA If / 7 5 Ch/D/N If 6 Ch/D/A 7 D Ch D A If h S .~ Ch D C II 0 EM[N/TA 11 Ch1D U II 12 DCh D/U =1 N/TA 19 U /TD II 20 SU/SR-- 21, 22 IP ;DS .. 23 DIONE 24 D IRS 25 D D S +~ rI 26 27 OTR SIWA II 28 STATSPEC 2 , I I 30 T)10'BGT 31 OCT 32 D/Qsz STATINTL II 33 SA 34 St/P II 35 State, Thomas R. Buchanan, INR/REC 27 Apr 73 36 DIA, Rm. 1508, A Bldg. AHS 37 Elmer E. Glaser, AID/FMSRD II 38 Miss Frances L. Hall, Dept. of Commerce Dir. International Trade Analysis Div. , IC 39 Wilharn 1-1, Bray, Dept. of the Treasury AS for National Security Affairs 40 St/SD I 41 st/cs I' STATINTL 42, Archives A-18 79-kx~ 23 Filed in t/P/ C x II 3 FOR 2. M8 2353 6 N/ TA r P ojject 35. 6561) DP79T01098A000100020001-313 Aooroved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 COPY NO. (S) STATI NIL Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000100020001-3 RECORD OF REVIEW OF OER PUBLICATIONS FOR SECURITY/SANITIZATION APPROVAL SUBJECT /Rf 73- oZ A SECURITY REVIEW SANITIZING I STRUCTIONS ITEM DATE INI TIALS REMOVE UNEDITED DRAFT 25X1A EDITED DRAFT DELETE RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN RECIPIENT YES N 25X1 C SUBSTITUTE REMARKS FORM 7Q Q M?j o i a u When Filled GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification SECRET (When Filled In) hVP Approved For Release 2 ~p W SH , F4 ET 25X1A 0 PICK UP MAPS CHARTS PHOTOGRAPHS L L cop, c DRAFT PAGES FINAL PAGES DATE TO REPRODUCTION REMARKS t i DATE SCHEDULED 0 TO: Chief, Publications Staff, OER Date g4/ 7 Approval for reproduction of the above project number with changes or corrections as noted is herewith submitted. - lex u cnecxea and. approved Graphics checked and approved DDI synopsis paragraph attached Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-R FORM REPLACES FORMS 2351, 2352 1-72 2352 AND 1653 WHICH ARE OBSOLETE SECRET (5-13-36-5d