SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY FROM DROUGHT MARCH 1975

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: November 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 7, 2000
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: March 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2000 /5r iA DP79TO1098A000500020004-6
Copy No. 88
Prospects for Recovery from Drought
Approved For Release 200015115 IA-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/1 v??'d~9 -I 1P79T01098A000500020004-6
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY FROM DROUGHT
? Good rains last summer at least temporarily broke the long drought in
most of Sahelian Africa.
? The October harvests were short of requirements for 1975, but the food
deficits to be filled by foreign donations are estimated at only about
half of the 700,000 metric tons granted during November 1973 - October
1974.
The drought's major economic toll was against the livestock herds, cutting
exports of beef cattle and local barter of livestock products for cereals.
? Reduced cattle exports from the Sahelian states will cause sharp increases
in beef prices in coastal African cities, such as Abidjan, Dakar, and Accra.
The realization of a tentatively forecast long-term decline in precipitation
would severely limit lon --term Sahelian developmental prospects.
Even if weather is good, the Sahel's poor physical resources limit
prospects for making the area agriculturally productive.
? There are significant planning and financing deficiencies that impede
efforts to accelerate development, as well as a lack of enthusiasm in some
governmental circles toward improving the welfare of the herding tribes.
? Institutional shortcomings will tend to stimulate a recurrence of the cycle
of overgrazing and consequent extreme drought vulnerability.
? Significant improvements in Sahelian living conditions during this decade
are improbable.
Approved For Release 2000/05/15 C'Ui -b79T01098A0005000~'`6''4-
 Approved For Release 2000 IP441t4-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
1. Six of the world's poorest countries bore the brunt of the African
drought - Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Upper Volta, Niger, and Chadl (see the map).
Even before the drought, these states shared low growth rates and per capita
incomes, widespread malnutrition, persistent trade deficits, and other of the
impoverishing characteristics that distinguish the most disadvantaged of developing
countries.2 None had natural resources on a scale sufficient to nourish prospects
for achieving healthy development in this decade.
2. The barren Sahara Desert blankets more than half of the areas of four
of the countries - Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Chad. The first fringe of land south
of the Sahara, called the Sahel, is barely more habitable, receiving only 10-20 inches
of rainfall annually during June-September. The Sahel encompasses about one-fifth
of the combined areas of the six countries. Mauritania and' Niger have almost no
area south of the Sahel, and livestock diseases spread by the tsetse fly limit the
usefulness of the sub-Sahelian southern areas in the other four states.
3. Despite the forbidding environment, farming and herding support more
than 90% of the six countries' 25 million people. Except in Mauritania, most of
the populations consist of farmers living in the south of the countries, where rainfall
normally is just sufficient to grow sorghum, millet, and vegetables for family needs
and some local marketing. Cultivation in the, Sahel takes place mainly along the
Niger and Senegal Rivers and the tributaries of Lake Chad. Livestock raising
centered in the Sahel contributes all or most of the livelihood of about 25": of
the six countries' combined populations (about 75% of Mauritania's). The extremely
variable weather induces the Herders to move most of their livestock in migratory
patterns, leaving the sparse northern pastures at the end of the wet seasons for
more bountiful pastures and harvested farm lands in the south, and returning as
the wet seasons recur.
4. The practices of farming and herding are divided roughly along ethnic
lines. Tauregs of Berber ancestry and Fulani tribes carry on most of the migratory
herding in the Sahel. Bedouin Arabs herd mainly sheep, goats, and camels in the
1. Drought also was severe in a number of Ethiopian provinces. Other countries touched by the African
drought include Gambia, Guinea, Dahomey, Nigeria, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Sudan, Uganda,
Tanzania, Kenya, and Somalia.
2. Available economic statistics for the six countries are given in Table 1.
Approved For Release 2000/P P~J &Nq1k4-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 -cB@PL79TO1098A000500020004-6
SUS-SHAIi AFRICA:.
PrincipalW Cpuntries and Tribes
It by Drought
3
Approved For Release 2000/05/15CPGItI ERDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/p&/IigENgA~-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Statistics of Six Sahelian Countries)
Senegal
Mauritania
Mali
Upper
Volta
Niger
Chad
Gross domestic product (million
US $, current prices)
1,000
230
380
325
400
300
Population (thousand persons)
4,258
1,304
5,560
5,888
4,444
3,988
Population dependent on
agriculture (percent)
80
98
98
95
98
90
Per capita GDP (US $)
240
190
70
60
100
80
Area (thousand square miles)
76
419
465
106
489
496
Under cultivation (percent)
12
1
1
10
3
10
Population density (persons
per square mile)
56
3
12
55
9
8
Population growth (percent)
2
2
2
2
2
2
Adult literacy rate (percent)
5-10
5-10
0-5
5-10
0-5
5-10
Exports (million US $)
215
100
30
25
55
40
Major commodities (percent of
total exports)
Groundnuts
35-40
Negl.
10-15
5-10
45-50
0
Cotton
0
0
15-20
25-30
Negl.
45-50
Minerals
10-15
70-75
0
0
10-15
Negl.
Livestock
Negl.
10-15
45-50
55-60
30-35
45-50
Fish
5-10
5-10
5-10
0
Negl.
Ncgl.
Imports (million US $)
280
70
60
70
65
65
Foreign exchange reserves
at yearend (million US $)
20-40
10-20
0-5
40-60
30-50
0-5
Foreign debt (million US $)2
345
80
325
30
40
30
1. All data are the most recent available.
2. Debt with a maturity of over one year.
Sahel and in Saharan oases. The Fulani and tribes that are largely of Negroid
ancestry (Dogon, Songhai, and others) practice semimigratory herding and sedentary
farming and herding in the south of the states, both inside and outside the Sahel.
Considerable ill will has existed between the largely Muslim Sahelian herders and
Christian-Animist southerners as a result of depredations by the warlike herders
in past generations.
Six Years of Drought, 1968-73
5. Rainfall was below average in 1968, and fell in successive years after
1969 to a low of less than two-thirds of normal in 1973 (see the chart). Always
Approved For Release 2000lO8fUNTISIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
Average Rainfall in Six Sahelian Countries
5
CONFIDENTIAL
Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000Og4l4~,Q[A-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
susceptible to drought, the Sahelian herding economy (the Tauregs, Fulani, and
Bedouin Arabs and, to a lesser extent, the farmer/herders in the southern Sahel)
suffered the most immediate and severe damage. Water wells both for human and
animal consumption dried up and pastures for livestock were quickly consumed.
River flooding, depended on for subirrigation of the Sahelian grain crops, failed
in 1972 and 1973. Cereal production in the six countries may have been cut by
as much as one-third compared with average production before the drought (see
Table 2).
Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimated Sorghum and Millet Production
by Six Sahelian Countries)
Annual Average
Predrought
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Total
4,300-4,925
N.A.
3,775
N.A.
3,065
3,210
N.A.
Senegal
600-700
635
410
585
325
510
650
Mauritania
100-125
N.A.
80
N.A.
35
25
N.A.
Mali
800-1,000
700
715
750
500
675
N.A.
Upper Volta
1,000-1,100
1,000
860
945
740
720
1,000
Niger
1,200-1,300
1,385
1,100
1,225
1,050
900
N.A.
Chad
600-700
650
610
600
415
380
N.A.
6. The Sahel's vulnerability to drought had been increased by overstocking
of livestock and consequent overgrazing prior to 1968. After independence in 1960,
each country had increased veterinary services and expanded well drilling to spur
cattle and meat exports and increase revenues from livestock head-taxes. As a result,
herds possibly doubled to as many as 50-60 million animals3 (see Table 3). There
were no institutional incentives to limit the expansion, because the livestock were
grazed on open ranges where water and pasture were held in common.
7. Traditional husbandry practices of the Sahelian herders abetted the
governmental initiatives. Livestock ownership had long represented a measure of
family wealth; therefore, unlimited accumulation of animals was a common goal.
Livestock's value stemmed from the herders' almost total dependence for food
on (1) milk from the herds and (2) cereals acquired by bartering milk and milk
3. Statistical data on the Sahelian economies and on the impact of the drought are sparse and unreliable.
Most data in this publication indicate estimated orders of magnitude.
Approved For Release 2000 05?NT0xIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/1&IqQiP79TO1098A000500020004-6
Sub-Saharan Africa: The Niger River could be crossed on foot at Niamey during the worst of
the 1968-73 drought.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimated Livestock Population
of Six Sahelian Countries, 1968
Sheep
Cattle and Goats Horses Camels
Total 18,500 29,000 1,800 1,530
Senegal 2,000 2,000 200 30
Mauritania 2,000 4,000 200 500
Mali 4,500 9,000 500 250
Upper Volta 2,000 3,000 200 10
Niger 4,000 8,000 400 390
Chad 4,000 3,000 300 350
products and selling male and barren cattle. No alternative opportunities for
accumulating wealth, such as would be provided by savings institutions and a
tradition of currency-based commerce, existed.
8. The severe environment and poor husbandry practices had kept the herds
in poor condition before the drought began. The migratory herding routes between
the widely dispersed wet and dry season pastures had enforced repeated and tiring
livestock drives to maintain the animals' minimal nutritional needs. Competition
by herders for brood cows' milk for family and trading needs weakened calves.
Local customs that favored older brood stock of proved fertility over young animals
had led to the overstocking of aged animals.
Approved For Release 2000/05/15otCilA RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000 JFJLkN i -RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
9. The drought forced the herders to accelerate sales of their livestock to
reduce the herds to a level the pasture would support and to earn the wherewithal
to buy cereals for their own needs. Village granary supplies dwindled as grain crops
were reduced. The ensuing hardship, starvation, and disease took a great many
lives, particularly from the poorest families (those without livestock to milk or
barter) and the more susceptible family elements (infants, children, and aged
persons).4 Indifference in some of the countries because of the old animosities
toward the Sahelian herders and some resignation in the face of drought in others
delayed official recognition of the magnitude of the disaster and governmental
initiation of aid.
10. A multidonor emergency food-aid effort was begun in the fall of 1972.
Since that time, more than 1.2 million tons of grain and other foods have been
donated (see Table 4). Difficulties in delivering supplies, because of inadequate
transportation, inefficient local administration in some countries, and poor
information on where the need was greatest, prolonged the hardship of many. The
aid effort, nevertheless, averted mass starvation and perceptibly reduced
malnutrition.
Table 4
Sub-Saharan Africa: Emergency Food Donations by Foreign Nations
Thousand Metric Tons
Crop Year (November-October)
Donor
1972/73
1973/74
1973/74
Total
525
630
60
United States2
250
280
35
Western Europe and Canada
205
285
20
Other countries
70
65
5
1. Including oils, soy-fortified grits, and corn-soy milk.
2. Including US donations through the World Food Program and United Nations International Childrens
Emergency Fund, as well as direct gifts.
Approved For Release 2000Fd FI~~E. ?i4-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 cE79T01098A000500020004-6
11. Because Sahelian agriculture is largely divorced from the monetary
economy and characterized by low productivity, the drought's effect on the gross
national output of the six Sahelian states was muted, not reflecting the local severity
of the disaster. Most citizens living south of the Sahel were able to carry on without
severe hardship. Major industries, such as mining uranium in Niger, phosphates in
Senegal, and iron ore and copper in Mauritania, were wholly unaffected. Commercial
crops - peanuts and cotton - sustained only transient damage. River and lake
fishing for food and exports was seriously reduced in Mali, Upper Volta, Niger,
and Chad.
12. In the Sahel, the drought killed possibly as many as 15-25 million head,
one-third to one-half of the livestock population. Many families lost their entire
herds and were forced to exist on food handouts. The losses severely disrupted
the only significant intra-Sahel economic intercourse, barter of milk and other
livestock products for cereal and pasture.
13. The drop in herd numbers undoubtedly will cut domestic and foreign
cattle trade for a number of years. Cattle sold or bartered by the herders supply
Approved For Release 2000/05/15 c APW 79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000 14~&[A-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
live beef to butchers in local towns and to traders who export to coastal cities,
such as Abidjan, Dakar, and Accra. Curtailment of this trade will cut into domestic
meat consumption and export earnings and will force coastal states to rely more
heavily on imports of expensive non-African frozen meat. Beef prices in the coastal
cities can be expected to rise sharply.
14. The effect on government revenues in the six Sahelian states has been
a reduction in yield from the livestock head-tax. That tax had contributed roughly
5% of revenues prior to the drought. Some of the impact of this reduction has
been lessened by emergency offsetting budgetary donations from France. Some
resources have been diverted from developmental projects to emergency relief.
15. A serious effect of the drought was a temporary quickening of the pace
of encroachment of the Sahara Desert into the Sahel. Slow expansion had been
progressing for years because of overgrazing. The concentration of livestock on
available pasture and, in particular, around water wells and at the edges of the
Niger and Senegal Rivers and Lake Chad may have hastened the advance during
the drought. Large herds of goats, which ate plant roots and leaves from bushes,
and the chopping by herders of branches and trees for firewood and animal fodder
contributed to the expansion.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Woodcutting for fuel and fodder quickened erosion.
Approved For Release 2006 14Vrl0IA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 & }1, J79T01098A000500020004-6
Partial Recovery in 1974
16. Rainfall was poor in June 1974, the first month of the wet season, but
increased during July-September throughout most of the area. The rains, however,
became too heavy in some places, causing drownings and flooding that damaged
crops and housing. The rains washed away roads in Mali and Niger, isolating
communities and hampering relief operations.
17. Despite good rainfall, domestic harvests and grain supplies carried over
from aid donations in 1974 were short of the Sahelian states' cereal requirements
for 1975 by an estimated 300,000-400,000 tons. Seed supplies were minimal at
planting time last spring, and many families that had grown subsistence crops had
moved to villages and refugee centers. Insect damage was substantial in some areas.
18. Two or three consecutive years of rainfall matching the 1974 total would
be required to rebuild drought-baked land inside the Sahel and restore cereal output
to adequate levels. The recovery of livestock herds would take substantially longer.
Much of the brood stock is aged, reducing both the frequency of birth and the
probability that the offspring will survive. The normal recurrence of dry years in
the Sahel may limit herds to below the excessive numbers reached in 1968, which
had followed an unusual period of seven-eight consecutive years of above-average
rainfall.
Possibility of Deteriorating Weather
19. Sahelian weather will continue to be unreliable. At a minimum, droughts
of one or more years' duration encompassing individual portions of the Sahel will
occur regularly. Whether droughts of the severity, pervasiveness, and duration of
the one just past (the first such drought in about 60 years) will recur soon is
uncertain.
20. Some weather experts are forecasting the beginning of a long-term cyclical
cooling trend in world weather patterns that, if borne out, will increase the
frequency of severe drought in the Sahel. The cooling weather would restrict the
northerly movement of the subtropical monsoons that discharge Sahelian rainfall.
The result would be progressively dryer weather and ultimately a southward advance
of the Sahara into the Sahelian region.
21. The realization of this forecast would be disastrous for the six Sahelian
countries. The encroachment of Sahara-like weather would snuff out the limited
Approved For Release 2000/05/1 T-P(NAJDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/P&MEN9A~ -RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
agricultural capability along the rivers and in more southerly regions that are
accustomed to higher precipitation, leaving the states without the capability to
feed themselves even in good years. The forced southward migration of peoples
would increase the likelihood of strife that already occasionally flares between
herders seeking pasture and farmers protecting crops. The age-old cultural conflicts
between the herders and southern residents would be exacerbated.
22. The uncertainty of the forecast limits its usefulness for economic planning
in the Sahel. Whether a cyclical deterioration already has begun and, if it has,
how quickly weather will worsen are very much in doubt. The most pessimistic
estimate implies a possibility of sharp deterioration during the next 40 years, but
others indicate periods of centuries. Lacking firmer information, the Sahelian
governments and major aid donors are going ahead on the assumption that weather
will not become so overwhelmingly adverse as to rule out reasonable chances for
economic development.
Development - An Imposing Challenge
23. One possibly favorable consequence of the drought just past was a
disruption of conservative economic and cultural mores that probably had been
detrimental to the region's developmental potential. Suddenly bereft of a viable
economic occupation, herders were forced to seek wage jobs in southern
communities, many outside the six states. Although the desire by most to return
to herding is strong, the temporary rupture of old ways and exposure to new
opportunities undoubtedly will broaden perspectives. The young in the Sahel may
be more strongly inclined to join the growing numbers of West African job seekers
in the coastal African cities. Although openings in the cities generally are scarce,
such movement could help moderate future population pressures on the Sahel's
meager resources.
24. Agricultural development, nevertheless, will remain a prerequisite for
improving the living standard in the six Sahelian states. Given the slowness of
industrial job growth and continuing population expansion, the proportion of
independent farmers and herders in the population is not likely to fall much below
80%-90% in the foreseeable future. Political and social distress caused by the poverty
of this overwhelmingly large sector of the population will continue to represent
a major motive for development.
25. The extent of agricultural development that it is practical to expect in
the six states is questionable. The wide range of aid-sponsored projects planned
Approved For Release 2000/i Ml5ENC4A-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
CONFIDENTIAL
and begun as a reaction to the drought undoubtedly will alleviate hardships and
help build a framework for economic growth. To go further will require continuing
infusions of capital and technical aid and far-reaching changes in the attitudes,
habits, and capabilities of the farmers and herders. Carrying through the needed
changes will severely test the determination and stability of the Sahelian
governments. The magnitude and duration of aid that will be required will strain
the generosity and patience of donors.
26. The range of farm products that have a promising commercial potential
is very narrow. Only cotton and peanuts have yet been produced successfully on
a moderately large scale. Because most of the area of the states is at the extreme
margin of the world's cultivable area, few other crops are likely to be competitive
with harvests from naturally more productive lands. Even the cultivation of the
basic food cereals -- sorghum and millet - probably would diminish if the states
could afford the alternative of buying higher quality imported cereals.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Plowing barren land in Senegal.
27. The potential for cattle raising appears more promising. Growing beef
markets already exist in the coastal African cities, and Sahelian exports probably
could be increased substantially by establishing integrated programs of cattle
weaning, feeding, and marketing. These could be instituted without disturbing
significantly traditional migratory herding patterns. Such programs, however, could
not be expected to overcome the likelihood of recurring overgrazing and consequent
vulnerability to drought.
28. Existing agricultural development in the six states is small. Veterinary
services, watering wells in some areas, and developmental rice farms are the principal
Approved For Release 2000/05/ ' ~L9J TIP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
CONFIDENTIAL
projects to improve herding and food production. Expanding food-crop irrigation
and increasing the scope and resiliency of livestock feeding are the most pressing
needs. Controlling crop and livestock pests and diseases will be mandatory. Adding
productive inputs - cultivating equipment, fertilizers, cattle handling facilities, and
the like - and introducing improved livestock breeds and crop strains will be
required to sustain growth. As development progresses, expanded transportation,
marketing, and administrative facilities will be needed to support production.
Crop Irrigation and Livestock Feeding
29. A particularly difficult problem will be to overcome the unreliability,
during severe drought, of food crop irrigation and livestock feeding - the two
principal vulnerabilities. Rivers and wells that would provide abundant water during
normal years recede drastically when not replenished by the annual rains. Although
reliable, very deep wells are prohibitively expensive. Inadequate water for irrigation
rules out developing reliable pasture in the northern Sahel. Growing hay or other
feed crops farther south or ridding pastures south of the Sahel of disease will
be time consuming and expensive.
30. Financing problems and interstate disagreements have long impeded
damming the Sahelian rivers for crop irrigation. Although international sympathy
because of the 1968-73 drought is spurring financing offers, getting agreement on
controlling the flow of the rivers, all of which are common to more than one
country, is a continuing problem. At some potential sites, backed-up waters would
cross national borders and flood cropland of neighboring countries. Disagreements
and a lack of financing have delayed for more than 10 years dams planned for
the Senegal and smaller nearby rivers.
31. The potential for small irrigation projects that could be constructed
without massive foreign aid is doubtful. Although inexpensive and beneficial in
most years, tapping the rivers with small weirs and canals probably would not
be reliable during long droughts when the rivers recede. Similarly, many wells that
are dug by hand or with ordinary equipment, having maximum depths of about
200-250 feet, become unusable when rainfall is inadequate to replenish the
near-surface (phreatic) water table. Most such wells, moreover, are mainly for human
and animal needs and do not have the capacity for more than garden-plot crop
irrigation.
32. Expanding reliable livestock watering in the northern pasturing areas is
costly and complex. Where it exists, underground water that is not influenced by
Approved For Release 2000/QEI, I-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIAE RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
fluctuations in rainfall has generally been found to be at extremely deep levels,
often more than 2,000 feet. Well drilling and pumping, therefore, require special
equipment and are expensive, costing as much as $200,000 a well for drilling alone.
33. Lack of feed for the herds during long droughts will remain a severe
problem until the feeding capability in the south of the six countries is improved.
Fencing and rotating grazing, even if politically and technically feasible, could not
be expected to insure adequate pasture in the northern Sahel through long and
severe droughts. As in the past, most herders probably would be forced to prolong
their stay in the dry season pasturing areas of the south. If crop irrigation were
established along the rivers, growing and stocking hay or other livestock feed
probably could be developed to provide some relief. Competition for land during
droughts between herders and crop farmers would be likely to remain an issue.
34. There is hope that tsetse fly eradication programs will expand pasturing
south of the Sahel. Slow and inefficient eradication methods, however, complicate
the clearing of large enough areas to be of significant benefit to the Sahelian herds.
Preventing reinfestation will be a serious problem. Several other livestock diseases -
rinderpest, bovine pleuropneumonia, anthrax, blackleg, and others - contribute to
the disease problems.
35. Expanding the southern pastures would improve the prospects for
upgrading livestock breeds. Long subject to extremely high mortality -- up to 50%
by cattle in the first year of life even after veterinary services became available --
the Sahelian herds consist of only the hardiest animals able to withstand long
15
Approved For Release 2000/05/1 k0IQp79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
CONFIDENTIAL
periods with minimal feed and water. Raising more productive breeds that are less
durable would require better feeding conditions, probably precluding most pasturing
outside of the better-watered- areas in the south.
36. Modernizing the handling of cattle may have significant promise for
improving livestock productivity. Programs to wean and confine calves as yearlings
or less and intensively feed them would more than halve the three to five years
presently needed to prepare grass-fed animals for butchering. By using male animals,
fattening systems would not upset the herders' reliance on the females for milk
and herd growth. Freed of long-term nursing demands, brood cattle would be able
to reproduce as often as annually, compared with once every three to four years.
Transportation would be needed to move the fattened animals to the urban markets,
avoiding the disease risk and weight loss associated with the existing system of
trekking the live animals to market.
Institutional Shortcomings
37. Unfortunately, the backwardness of the economy and institutions of the
Sahelian states detracts from hope that the physical obstacles to developing
agriculture can eventually be overcome. The fact that most of the states' populations
produce their own food minimizes the size of the domestic cereal market, limiting
incentives for expanded food production. In Mali, government price controls
designed to hold down urban food costs have further depressed producers'
incentives. Exports do not provide alternative sales outlets because of the
undesirability of sorghum and millet in foreign markets. Cereal imports, for
example, by Senegal and Mauritania, which have to import substantial quantities
even when rainfall is normal, consist largely of rice and wheat, preferred by the
urban consumers.
38. Shortcomings in Sahelian policy and. administrative capabilities reduce
the magnitude and effectiveness of foreign aid. Aid donors are discouraged by vague
and incomplete planning and a lack of detailed project proposals. Poor coordination
splinters the impact of existing programs and projects. Limited planning skills and
disagreement over strategies and goals impede efforts to alleviate these problems.
Some of the governments have only recently begun to give priority to the
development of cattle raising; this activity most interests many donors because
of its plight during the 1968-73 drought and because its potential appears more
promising than farming. The governments' old animosities toward the herders and
lack of success in enforcing taxing of the herding economy had dampened the
interest in livestock development.
Approved For Release 200 0 O Wfl NTCZ1A-RDP79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/1 5cr C EI P79T01098A000500020004-6
39. Ironically, the dominant incentives for livestock herding are likely to
stimulate a recurrence of overgrazing. Still existing are the factors that influenced
herd numbers in 1968 - the states' objectives of increasing livestock exports, the
herders' tradition of using livestock as a store of wealth, and the catalyst of widely
available veterinary services. None of the states is devoting broad efforts to
determining an optimum grazing capacity for the Sahel or to preparing to limit
herds accordingly. Most livestock-related development still is for veterinary services
and well drilling. The incentive for controlling numbers provided by the 1968-73
drought will diminish if good rainfall continues during the next few years.
40. Institution of an effective system of controlling herd numbers would be
extremely difficult. Carrying out national programs of enumeration and control
would be costly, probably exceeding the administrative capability or potential of
the Sahelian states. Instituting private land tenure, which would provide automatic
incentives to control herds, would require a generation or more of time. To persuade
the herders to relinquish the tradition of communal land use and to overcome
the very complex problems of dividing and distributing land would be almost
prohibitively difficult. Private tenure, moreover, would mean terminating the age-old
nomadic way of life, further complicating the change.
41. That commercial institutions and marketing are minimal is an additional
impediment to controlling herd numbers. Herders will continue to regard unlimited
increases in livestock as a desirable goal until commerce and banking are accepted
as an alternative means of earning and storing wealth. These institutions will evolve
only very gradually and cannot be expected to help ease the pressure for expanding
herds in this decade.
Prospects
42. Recovery to predrought living standards probably can be expected in
most of the Sahel during the next several years. A severe Sahel-wide drought
probably would not quickly recur unless the forecast of long-term deterioration
is realized more abruptly than believed likely. Localized droughts are a certainty,
causing intermittent requirements for foreign food donations to individual states.
Assistance for nomadic families that lost their entire livestock herds will be needed
for several years.
43. Vulnerability to drought will continue to be a problem. The building
of granary stockpiles from foreign donations is probable, but domestic production
probably will not be developed sufficiently to negate the need for additional
Approved For Release 2000/05/15c-?ti!RE'R 79T01098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000Uiil15EN 4A-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
donations if another severe drought occurs. Little sentiment is perceived for the
institutionalization of interstate sharing of supplies. The prospects for making
irrigation and livestock feeding reliable during severe droughts are poor.
44. In time, planned programs to improve livestock feeding and handling and
expand areas free of tsetse-borne disease may improve productivity and exports
by limited segments of the herding population. For most herders, the continuation
of the cycles of contracting herds during dry years and subsequent rebuilding is
probable. The chances are poor that rainfall will again be above average for enough
consecutive years to permit herds to regain the excessive numbers of the late 1960s.
45. At least the rest of this decade will be needed to establish any perceptible
developmental momentum in Sahelian agriculture. Even in the event that financing
and technical problems were overcome, completing large irrigation projects that
might stimulate wide peripheral development would take years. Progress instead
is likely to be irregular, consisting of smaller aid-sponsored projects that will not
in themselves stimulate sustained development -- roads, wells, expanded primary
education, a beginning on beef fattening and tsetse eradication, and the like. Except
possibly for medical and dietary assistance, little perceptible improvement in the
standard of living of most of the six states' agricultural populations is likely.
Approved For Release 20005 IRV:T6A-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Ap roved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00500020004-6
Confidential
Confidential
Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6
r P,-), r- / /
Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000500020004-6