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November 16, 2016
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September 1, 1975
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Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Secret Trends in Soviet Civil Aviation Secret ER RP 75-25 September 1975 Copy N2 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions Classified by 015319 Exempt from General Declassification Schedule of E.O. 11652, exemption category: ?5B(1), (2), and (3) Automatically declassified on: date impossible to determine Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 :I9kIRDP79T01098A000600040004-3 1. Aeroflot, the Soviet national airline, is the world's largest. Linking more than 3,700 locations in the USSR and 67 foreign countries over a 500,000-mile route network, the airline carried 90 million persons in 1974, about 20% of the world total (see the map and Table 1). The airline's vast supply of equipment and personnel is geared primarily to domestic operations, which account for 95% of passengers carried. Aeroflot's international services extend over a broad but thinly served network, concentrated in Europe but stretching from the Western Hemisphere to the Far East. 2. To improve the airline's image, Soviet aviation policy shifted in the 1970s from the expansion of routes to an upgrading of services. In the 1960s, new routes extending beyond existing European services to the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia had been the focus of attention. Most were established for political reasons and remain uneconomic to this day. As Aeroflot filled out its network around the world, the Soviets began to stress fleet modernization, improved quality of passenger services, and operational safety. 3. The improvements in Aeroflot operations have been impressive, enhancing the airline's international image. Despite these gains, Aeroflot does not pose a commercial threat to major international airlines in the West. Its international services do not offer the frequency of flights or the route alternatives necessary to garner a significant portion of the highly competitive international travel market. The Soviets appear content to have Aeroflot provide limited service on extensive international routes to maintain political and economic ties and to augment Soviet military airlift capability. 4. Civil aviation in the USSR celebrated its fiftieth anniversary in 1973. From an amalgamation of small regional carriers operating primarily in European Russia, Aeroflot was established as the Soviet national airline in 1932. At the outbreak of World War II, Aeroflot's network extended some 100,000 miles -- Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may be directed to of the Office of Economic Research, Code 143, Extension 5741. 25X1 A Approved For Release 2000/05/15 : tlbk-RDP79T01098A00060V3Pf '- SECRET Approved For Release 2000/05/15 : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/4 5 : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 SECRET Approved For Release 2000/05/15: ki EPDP79T01098A000600040004-3 Table 1 Soviet Bilateral Air Agreements and Inaugural Date of Aeroflot Service: Non-Communist Countries, Cuba, and Yugoslavia Summer 1975 Country Agreement Service Country Agreement Service Afghanistan 1956 1957 Mali 1962 1962 Algeria 1964 1964 Mauritania 1974 .... Austria 1955 1968 Mauritius 1973 Bangladesh 1973 1973 Morocco 1962 1962 Belgium 1958 1958 Netherlands 1958 1958 Burma 1961 1959 Nigeria 1967 1969 Burundi 1973 .... Norway 1956 1969 Canada 1966 1966 Pakistan 1963 1963 Central African Peru 1973 1974 Republic 1965 1969 Portugal 1974 1975 Chad 1974 1974 Rwanda 1973 Congo 1964 1969 Senegal 1965 1968 Cuba 1962 1962 Singapore 1969 1970 Denmark 1956 1967 Somali Republic 1963 1964 Egypt 1958 1959 South Yemen 1969 1969 Equitorial Guinea 1973 1974 Sri Lanka 1964 1964 Finland 1955 1955 Sudan 1962 1962 France 1958 1958 Sweden 1956 1967 Greece 1973 1973 Switzerland 1966 1967 Guinea 1962 1962 Syria 1962 1963 India 1958 1958 Tanzania 1965 1967 Indonesia 1961 1961 Thailand 1971 1971 Iran 1964 1964 Tunisia 1964 1964 Iraq 1962 1964 Turkey 1961 1968 Italy 1965 1965 Uganda 1965 1969 Japan 1966 1966 United Kingdom 1957 1958 Jordan 1970 1970 United States 1966 1968 Kenya 1965 1970 West Germany 1971 1972 Laos 1970 1970 Yemen 1967 1967 Lebanon 1966 1966 Yugoslavia 1955 1957 Libya 1963 1970 Zaire 1974 .... Luxembourg 1975 .... Malaysia 1969 1970 almost exclusively domestic - and carried 350,000 passengers annually. Following the war, the Soviets began the slow process of reestablishing former services and adding new routes. Approved For Release 2000/05/15: 3DP79T01098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/(i59t16 : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 5. By the early 1950s, prewar services were largely restored, and the Soviets started to develop an international route network. With Moscow as the hub, flights were initiated to Eastern Europe and then to most West European capitals. Except for service to the Iberian peninsula, West Germany, and Greece, Aeroflot's European routes were complete by the end of the decade. 6. Building on its European services, the USSR turned its attention in the 1960s to establishing service to the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia. Toward the end of the decade, trans-Atlantic operations were inaugurated to Canada and the United States. By 1970, Aeroflot operated some 120 international services weekly - 58 weekly flights to 42 non-Communist countries and 62 flights per week to 10 communist countries. Aircraft used in these international services were outdated, delays were commonplace, and fatal accidents occurred at a rate above comparable operations in the West. Criticism of the airline's operations became so widespread that it began to surface in Soviet literature. 7. To counter growing criticism of Aeroflot's aging inventory of civil aircraft, the USSR began a major modernization program in the early 1970s. Deliveries have accelerated in each of the past five years, with Aeroflot's current jet inventory approaching 1,000, of which approximately 450 have been added since 1971 (see Tables 2 and 3). The YAK-40, with a short field capability, constitutes more than half of the jet inventory, which also includes increased numbers of the improved medium-range TU-134As, the medium- to long-range TU-154s, and the long-range IL-62Ms, the flagship of the Aeroflot fleet. 8. Despite the addition of newer jets, the Soviets continue to maintain a fleet of more than 1,400 turboprop aircraft, about half of which are the short-range, 50-passenger AN-24s. Similarly, multi-engine piston aircraft still account for between 850 and 950 units. Except for use of the AN-24s in domestic service, the turboprop and piston aircraft are not often assigned to regularly scheduled service. They are, however, pressed into charter service during the summer tourist season. 9. Along with the planned addition of about 150 currently produced aircraft a year to Aeroflot's inventory, several new designs are scheduled to be introduced during the next few years. These include: Approved For Release 2000/0 ' : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: 9kDP79T01098A000600040004-3 Aeroflot Inventory of High-Performance Aircraft' NATO Type and Model Destination 1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total 365 782 1,668 1,774 1,966 2,147 2,411 Jet 191 227 430 530 658 784 977 TU-104 (A and B) Camel 190 150 155 146 143 141 140 TU-124 Cookpot 1 77 77 75 74 72 70 TU-134 (Standard and A) Crusty .... 50 62 97 125 145 TU-154 Careless .... .... .... 3 19 37 52 IL-62/M Classic .... .... 28 44 45 47 58 YAK-40 (Standard and B) Codling .... .... 120 200 280 360 510 11 ,76 Candid .... .... .... .... 2 2 Turboprop 174 555 1,238 1,244 1,308 1,363 1,434 AN40 Cat 68 84 86 85 83 81 79 AN-12 Cub 3 52 150 153 158 161 165 AN-24 Coke .... 91 591 615 652 690 731 IL-18 Coot 93 300 380 362 360 357 356 TU-114 Cleat 10 28 31 29 27 24 24 AN-26 Clank .... .... .... .... 28 50 79 1. In addition to the high-performance aircraft in Aeroflot's current inventory, the fleet includes from 850 to 950 multi-engine piston aircraft. For the most part, propeller-driven aircraft are used in training operations and during peak traffic periods during summer schedules. The Supersonic TU-144 Soviet aviation officials have indicated that the TU-144 may begin limited domestic scheduled service by the end of 1975. Historically, the Soviets have been overly optimistic about inaugural flights. The 1L-76 Despite initial Soviet claims that this longer range cargo transport was for civil use, most of the production thus far has gone to the military. Aeroflot has acquired a few of the aircraft, and they are probably in service on a few domestic cargo routes. The YAK 42 Basically an enlarged version of the highly successful YAK-40, the 100-120 passenger YAK-42 is slated to replace the YAK-40 on routes where growth in traffic demand is expected to be rapid. The YAK-42, which first flew in early March, is currently in flight testing. Approved For Release 2000/05/15: C$)0P79T01098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05 ~TCIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 H G O C ~O f. 0 0 0 00 kn In v7 00Q--0 C h O v7 h 00 N O O\ d' M L,- O O1 to - .-.i N O 0 110 N '.O h If h h O "114 8 vOehC O N N N - N N g gQC0. C\M V) 06, M N N 0 V00 00 kn 1 Q\ ' M 00 O c%~ N ON N It o~ ppp tn C 00 8 N N 00 O, 00 00 h 00 in In m 4td A A 6 00 [`- h N 00SS$~8 h N c~ N M M ~U N M ~ M M ~O 00000CND M M M "t --+ ON N 00 N M O O 0 0 O 88\008888 110 00 O\ O 0 0 0 0 0000088 O 0 0 O 't N00 I~7 h d 0 O un N uw u~ z M V) 00 M O N 'T N v> N N d 0 b h 00 N V . r 00 0 00 000000 0 I 8 0 %D CC\C-N 0 0 tn r- v1 v) N In N N "O dt CN ~ - iw C' ^-~ - M "t N .--~ v0cl M ONO N N -+ N N N M M tin v7 N ti M ti M cr n O O r z o; Cli M N cy, v 0 O y ~ x c~ x N U y 0 CO M O y O h v7 0 In 1n ~} 00 Cl) .~ In N N .-i F. M M M N In - . It It It N M M N M M It Q 7 O N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .0.0 . fl 0 fl a a ayi ' ' ' 9 9 9 8 o C 49 W Ow o O U 4) o U E .b 04 0 ?' O Q 1 O N M M ~ ey 4 y - _ N '0 O. 00 N 00 00 co r- 0 HHHHH ; ti ~ 6 Approved For Release 2000/Q Mgr: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15`: ffA9ikDP79T01098A000600040004-3 The IL-86 Airbus Despite many delays, Soviet officials intend to move forward with production of the IL-86 -- the USSR's wide-bodied aircraft. Although its current estimated range of 1,500-2,000 miles is less than half that of Western models, the aircraft would be well suited for many of Aeroflot's high-density domestic routes and international services to Europe. Under the most optimistic projections, the IL-86 is unlikely to begin service before 1979. Service Improvements J 10. The modernization program has allowed Aeroflot to upgrade operations by increasing the frequency of flights, improving adherence to schedules, and providing more comfortable travel. New jets have been added to almost all of Aeroflot's international services (see Tables 4 and 5) and to more than half the domestic routes. For the most part, the only international flights using older models are those where airfields place constraints on the type of aircraft serving the route. 11. The most dramatic changes in service in recent years have occurred on Aeroflot's domestic operations. These services, which link all the major Soviet cities, have traditionally been the last to receive new equipment. During the past three years, however, newer aircraft have been added to major domestic routes in increasing numbers, providing far more frequent flights and expansion of new routes. 12. Much of the improvement in domestic operations stems from the introduction of the YAK-40. The 30-passenger trijet, which is capable of operating from unimproved airfields, is rapidly replacing the aging AN-24. In the past three years, it has made new services possible to more than 200 rural locations in Eastern Russia and Siberia. For medium-range and longer flights, the TU-134A. TU-154, and IL-62M have replaced about half of the 356 IL-18 turboprop aircraft in Aeroflot's inventory. 13. Aeroflot's international service also has been upgraded and expanded with newer aircraft and some additional flights. Of the more than 260 weekly international flights most are now served byTU-134As,TU-154s, and IL-62Ms, many of which were put into service since 1972. Outdated TU-104s and TU-124s, and in some cases IL-18s, had previously been used on many of these routes. Approved For Release 2000/05/15: ( bURDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/0014E5: CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Communist Countries Summer 1975 Flight Number Flights per Week Type of Aircraft Moscow-Warsaw 101 Daily TU-154(4)/TU-134(3) Moscow-East Berlin 111 Daily TU-154 Moscow-East Berlin 113 Daily TU-154 Moscow-East Berlin 115 Daily TU-134/TU-154 Moscow-Dresden 119 Daily TU-134 Moscow-Leipzig 121 4 TU-134 Moscow-Budapest 131/133 Daily TU-134(2)/TU-154(5) Moscow-Prague 141 Daily TU-154 Moscow-Prague 143 Daily TU-134 Moscow-Bratislava 145 1 TU-134 Moscow-Bucharest 151 Daily TU-134(2)/TU-154(1) Moscow-Kiev-Bucharest 153 1 TU-134 Moscow-Sofia 171 6 TU-154 Moscow-Varna 175 Daily TU-154 Moscow-Burgas 177 6 TU-154 Moscow-Sofia 295 TU-154 Moscow-Budapest 409 IL-62 Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon- 541 IL-18 Vientiane-Hanoi Moscow-Omsk-Irkutsk-Ulan Bator 563 TU-154 Moscow-Omsk-Irkutsk-Pyongyang 567 TU-154 Moscow-Peking 571 IL-62 Leningrad-Vilnius (1)-Warsaw 601/03/05 TU-134 Leningrad-East Berlin 609 IL-18 Leningrad-Budapest 615 TU-134 Leningrad-Warsaw-Budapest 617 TU-104(1)/TU-134(1) Leningrad-Prague 621 TU-104 Leningrad-Burgas 627 TU-104 Leningrad-Sofia 629 TU-104 Kiev-Warsaw 661 TU-134 Kiev-Budapest 671 IL-18 Kiev-Bratislava 677 2 TU-134 Kiev-Sofia 685 2 TU-104 Kiev-Burgas 684 2 TU-104 Minsk-East Berlin 691 8 TU-134 Khabarovsk-Pyongyang 697 1 TU-154 a Approved For Release 2000/g a? : CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 :tiXIRDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries, Cuba, and Yugoslavia Summer 1975 Flight Number Flights per Week Type of Aircraft Moscow-Belgrade 161 Daily TU-134(2)/TU-154(5) Moscow-Zagreb 165 1 TU-154 Moscow-Helsinki 203 4 TU-134 Moscow-Stockholm-Oslo 211 2 TU-134 Moscow-Stockholm-Copenhagen 217 1 IL-62 Moscow-Amsterdam 227/29 TU-154(1)/IL-62(1) Moscow-Brussels 231 TU-154 Moscow-London 241/43 IL-62 Moscow-Paris 251/53 IL-62 Moscow-Frankfurt 255/59 TU-154(3)/IL-62(1) Moscow-Vienna 261 TU-134(3)/TU-154(2) Moscow-Zurich 265 TU-154 Moscow-Vienna-Zurich 267 TU-154 Moscow-Kiev-Zurich 269 TU-154 Moscow-Geneva 271 TU-154 Moscow-Rome 281/83 IL-62 Moscow-Milan 285 TU-154 Moscow-Milan-Marseilles 287 TU-154 Moscow-Sofia-Athens 295 TU-154 Moscow-Kiev(1)-Paris-Montreal 301 IL-62 Moscow-London-New York 311 IL-62 Moscow-Paris-New York 313 IL-62 Moscow-Paris-Washington 317 IL-62 Moscow-Frankfurt-Lisbon-Santa Maria'-Havana 331 IL-62 Moscow-Rabat-Havana 333 IL-62 Moscow-Frankfurt-Lisbon-Santa Maria' -Havana-Lima 335 IL-62 Moscow-Budapest-Algiers 407/409 IL-62 Moscow-Budapest' -Algiers- Dakar-Conakry 411 IL-62 Moscow-Tunis-Tripoli-Bamako 415 IL-18 Moscow-Budapest-Tripoli- Ndj amena-Malabo 417 IL-18 Moscow-Vienna-Tripoli-Lagos 421 IL-18 Moscow-Beirut-Cairo- Khartoum-Bangui-Brazzaville 9 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: i2b#ERDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000M At : CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries, Cuba, and Yugoslavia Summer 1975 (Continued) Routes Flight Number Flights per Week Type of Aircraft Moscow-Beirut-Khartoum- Bangui- Brazzaville 433 1 TU-154 Moscow-Cairo 441 1 TU-154 Moscow-Odessa-Cairo-Khartoum- Entebbe-Kampala-Nairobi-Dar es Salaam 445 1 TU-154 Moscow-Cairo-San'a-Aden- Mogadiscio 451 1 TU-154 Moscow-Cairo-Aden- Mogadiscio 453 1 TU-154 Moscow-Istanbul 501 1 TU-134 Moscow-Ankara-Istanbul 503 1 TU-134 Moscow-Beirut-Amman 505 1 TU-154 Moscow-Nicosia-Damascus 507 1 TU-154 Moscow-Yerevan-Beirut 509 1 TU-154 Yerevan-Beirut 511 1 TU-134 Moscow-Baghdad 513 1 TU-154 Moscow-Tehran 515 1 TU-154 Moscow-Nicosia 519 1 TU-154 Moscow-Damascus 517 1 TU-134 Moscow-Tashkent-Kabul 531 2 IL-18 Moscow-New Delhi 535 1 IL-62 Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon- Vientiane-Hanoi 541 2 IL-18 Moscow-Tehran-Karachi- Colombo 543 1 IL-62 Moscow-Tehran-Bombay-Rangoon- Jakarta 547 1 IL-18 Moscow-Baghdad/Bombay-Dacca 549 2 TU-154 Copenhagen-Moscow-New Delhi- Bangkok-Singapore 551 1 IL-62 Copenhagen-Moscow-Bangkok- Singapore-Jakarta 553 1 IL-62 Moscow-Kuwait' -Colombo 545 1 IL-62 Moscow-Karachi-Kuala Lumpur 555 1 IL-62 Approved For Release 2000/01- : CIA-RDP79TO1098AO00600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 : G1- tDP79T01098A000600040004-3 Aeroflot Schedule of International Flights to Non-Communist Countries, Cuba, and Yugoslavia Summer 1975 (Continued) Routes Flight Number Flights per Week Type of Aircraft Moscow-New Delhi-Kuala Lumpur-Singapore 557 1 IL-62 Paris-Moscow-Tokyo 575 2 IL-62 Frankfurt-Moscow-Tokyo 577 1 IL-62 Copenhagen-Moscow-Tokyo 579 1 IL-62 London-Moscow-Tokyo 581 2 IL-62 Rome-Moscow-Tokyo 583 1 IL-62 Amsterdam-Moscow-Tokyo 585 I IL-62 Leningrad-Belgrade 625 1 TU-134 Leningrad-Helsinki Leningrad-Stockholm- Amsterdam 633 1 TU-134 Leningrad-Stockholm-Oslo 635 1 TU-134 Leningrad-Copenhagen-London 637 1 TU-104 Leningrad-Helsinki 639 4 TU-134(3)/IL-18(1) Leningrad-Paris 641 1 TU-104 Moscow-Leningrad-Paris 643 2 IL-62 Leningrad-Moscow-Geneva 645 1 TU-134 Leningrad-Hamburg 653 1 TU-134 Leningrad-Zurich 657 1 TU-134 Kiev-Vienna 681 2 TU-134 Khabarovsk-Niigata 695 1 TU-1 54 14. While new aircraft are being added to the inventory, the Soviets have tried to improve the airline's notoriously poor customer service. In 1973 the airline established an "Air Service Agency" under the Ministry of Civil Aviation to facilitate more efficient use of the civil fleet inventory and improve customer services such as ticketing, transfers, and scheduling. The recent purchase of an IBM reservation system for the Moscow area underscores the continuing priority of the program. According to most Western travelers, however, the Soviets have a long way to go to bring operations up to Western standards. Approved For Release 2000/05/15: C4R RDP79T01098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/011 5r: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Enhanced Airlift Potential 15. The accelerated rate of delivery of modern aircraft during the past five years has enhanced Aeroflot's capacity to augment the USSR's military airlift potential. If 100% of the fleet were used and passenger and cargo aircraft were employed in their respective configurations, Aeroflot could airlift more than 150,000 passengers and 2,400 tons of cargo at any one time. In an actual airlift operation, as many as one-fourth of Aeroflot's resources could be used without seriously hampering scheduled domestic and international operations. Safety 16. Soviet complacency concerning civil aviation safety ended abruptly in late 1973 following a year-long series of accidents. During this period, at least 10 Aeroflot aircraft in scheduled service crashed, killing at least 500 persons. Although poor-quality on-board avionics and outdated air traffic control systems increased the probability of accidents, the primary causes of at least seven crashes were either pilot error, inclement weather, or a combination of both. In any event, the USSR launched a vigorous program to improve safety by: establishing an Aviation Safety Committee within the Ministry of Civil Aviation to investigate safety procedures and probable causes of accidents; upgrading operational testing of new civil aircraft and providing for more stringent preflight crew checks; and studying Western air traffic control procedures and equipmentfor possible application in the USSR. 17. Soviet actions have improved safety and continue to receive high priority. The original safety committee was reorganized in June 1975 and renamed the Civil Aviation Flight Safety Commission. The new commission has broader enforcement powers and includes representatives from the Ministries of Aviation Industry, Radio Industry, Defense, and Communication Equipment. During the past 18 months, the frequency of accidents has dropped well below past periods. Only one fatal crash is known to have occurred thus far in 1975 - a YAK-40 on a domestic flight went down near Batumi in mid-July killing 28 persons, including 4 crew members. 12 Approved For Release 2000/05i"gTCIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15: (UAW DP79T01098A000600040004-3 Negotiations and New Services 18. Since the early 1970s the Soviets have focused on Aeroflot's network in Sub-Saharan Africa and on laying the groundwork for expanded operations to Latin America. In Africa, air agreements have been concluded with Burundi, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Zaire. Last December, scheduled Aeroflot flights began in Ndjamena in Chad and Malabo in Equitorial Guinea. Scheduled flights to the other five countries are likely to begin this year, virtually completing Aeroflot's network in Africa. 19. The Soviets are accelerating the pace of negotiations with several Latin American countries in an effort to fill the last major gap in Aeroflot's international network. Only Cuba and Peru are served currently. The Cuban service began more than a decade ago. Service to Peru was initiated as a technical stop en route to Santiago, Chile, in November 1972. Santiago service ended with the fall of the Allende government in September 1973. Soon after the USSR formalized its earlier accord with Peru and set up weekly service via Havana. 20. Aviation agreements are currently being discussed with Argentina, Ecuador, Mexico, and Venezuela, with more muted efforts under way in Brazil, Colombia, and Panama. The principal push is aimed at Mexico. Panama and Venezuela, where talks have been under way for more than a year, are more likely to reach agreement with the USSR. 21. Other Aeroflot services inaugurated within the past 5 years include access to Thailand (1971), West Germany (1972), Bangladesh and Greece (1973), and, most recently, to Portugal in March 1975. Most of these new services were incorporated as intermediate points on existing Aeroflot schedules. 22. Soviet efforts to modernize Aeroflot's aircraft inventory and to improve operations will continue over the next several years. Aeroflot's international route structure will expand to provide broad coverage of Latin America within the next 2 to 5 years. Introduction of new aircraft coupled with purchases of advanced avionics and improved air traffic control equipment will improve Aeroflot's safety record and allow for expansion of existing services. These changes should enhance Aeroflot's international prestige and provide the Soviet Union with one of the world's most varied fleets of civil aircraft. Approved For Release 2000/05/15: QDP79T01098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/&& : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 23. Aeroflot attempts to bring its operations closer to Western standards will not overcome its relatively poor image, operational inefficiencies, and lack of passenger amenities. It is not expected to be a serious competitor in the international air transport market. Although Aeroflot might introduce an aggressive fare reduction campaign - especially in today's depressed aviation market - most foreign governments could counter by restricting Aeroflot landings and reducing fares on their national airlines. Approved For Release 2000/ ~JA : CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Approved For Release 2000/05/15 CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3 Secret Secret Approved For Release 2000/05/15: CIA-RDP79TO1098A000600040004-3