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December 9, 2016
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May 4, 2001
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June 30, 1951
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TOP SECRET _ ~ ~ ~ ;3 Approved Forease 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T0114600300050001=4 DIA, DOS Declassification/Release Instructions on File CF~iTRAL L+TTELLIGENCE AGENCY OFFICE OF CURRENT II~TELLI~ENCE IiA.Ii,Y DIGEST J'~ r~ 3 0 1951 NOTES la This ~ of signi.fioant reparirs has been prepared ~irimarily for the ixstern~l use of th? Offic~t crf C~?rent ][~itel~.igen~eo It daes not repre~snt ~ eompl?te oo~x?a~~ of ally, ourrent re~tart~ irl CIA or in the ~Jf~'a.oe of Current Intel~,igen~~ COPY NO a~_ 20 Commrt~~,ts represent the prel~,minax?~ vies mf the Off3:c$e cif Cua?x?ent Isate]:~.a.gen~a~ o M"argi~~ letter f ol]:o~rs b ineli oatioffas ire defirned ~s "A~ -items. i~, Smviet-Communist interxtic3n~ ~ .bil,~tie~ 01B~ - important regical de~relop~n.ents not naoes~aril~ related t~ Soviet/ Communist intend?ns or capabilities '~C~ -ether information indi,catang trends and potential devela~a.ents TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T01146A000300050001-4 Approved For Release 2001/09/04.: CIA-RDP79T01146A0~00050001-4 TOP SECRE3' nB~ $ Aid $o Iran, Hint?d in Soviet Press, Ntoscow newspapers on 29 June, hinted for ~s first time. at-the possibilit f y o Soviet assistance to Iran during the present oil crisis. The newspapers did. not quote any Russian stoutce~ but published, sn article from an Iranian newspaper calling for the Government of Iran to avoid the threatened stoppage of oil by accepting help from ~anti~iauperialist countries which are the sincere friends of the Iranm ian people. (U New York Times 30 June 5~)o C .anon of Px^emier R~r~sra~ the So~riet press has, tento avoid dited?~ ocaninm went on the deteriorating Iranian, situations material c~.7.1?d from th? Iranian press which fitstimdwith Nloscowb~iahed Banda lines usually utilising irresponsible or fl mb ? Q ptopae in some cases, may be indirectly susceptible to Sovietninf uen~cepi~enotwhicha actually under.Gist con,trold In this cases the original. article came from a low?circulation newspaper generally recognized as Communist, It is possible that the USSR is~contemplating a gesture of aid to Iran which might take the fora of a loan or technical assistance, believed capable of su 1 in real assistance to Iran own economyp pp y g USSR will Cel.sbrate .stir Fox^ce Da on l Jule The. Deputy Chief of Pre stations for the nation wide f estival~ Lt General ~asiTy,Stalin, told corres~ pondents that USSR Air I?oa?c? Lds P? y will be c?Tebtated in sn atmosphere of historic '~ictaries achieved undex?_the_lesdex?ship of the greaty party of Lenin Staling He boasted that the USSR ?~ " c~teated the aviation industry and has the most sd.~?anced aviation science in the world. .After a glowing descrip- tion of the details of the preparations9 he announced that this ~'ce~nplete mastery of the most ad~anc~ed techniquesQ9 will.. be demonstrated bar ~OStalinps Falcons and others on ~: ~'`taly over Tushino .Airfields ~II?F$IS9 29 ,1t11y 51). ~?~ ~~ EUROPE C~CY3?SLGVAKIA, Arm Deemed, of Little Use to USSR, 25X1 X Py?agsae estimates .that . in its ova .present state t e Czec y s batter adapted fox? d s efensive than an offensive missioas due to the absence oi? strong leaclership,~ the shortage of modern equipanent and the low morale of the average soldier, R'e also eacpresses the opinion that Soviet failure to make a de~e~tnined effort to teos?ganize. and reequip the Czechoslovak .Er indicates that the USSR intends to k?ep C~echoslovakis as a supply base for the pres?nt~, wit}a only sec~ndaty military capabilitiesa Other-significant features of the military picture in Czechoslovakia as t?~ 25X1X potted by etas {1) although adequate military supplies TOP SECR Approved For Release 2001/09/04: CIA-RDP79T01146A000300050001-4 Approved For Re"f~ase 2001/09/04 :CIA:-RDP79T01146A(300050001-4 TflP SERE are available to equip the present C~echoslc~vak Yq their warn candition and lack of standardisation makes most of.:them obsalete; (2) not over ~5~ of the line units ax?e trained in ~vviet tactics; {3) the reorga ization Qf units and staffs to conform..ta the, Soviet pattern is-still largely in the planning stage9 {~,) the unreliability o~ the Czechs and the natianal? ism of the lo~raks makes the military reliability of the army gtxestionahle in any role9 except that of oppos~ng'Ger?man aggression9 and {5) any appreciable eacpansion cif the Czechoslovak armed forces would, be at the expense cif in~ dustrial and military produ.ction~ since the Czedhoslovak economy is already .,.~_, 25X1A suffering from a r~a~ape~wer shortages Of the Ei~arQpean satellite armies, th? ga~? ~n an umanian seem to be rel~ atively better prepared. ideologically and-technically to carry out soviet aggressive designsa ?'B" Government Bas??~ b?~ Rising Wtirksr Discontent Resulting from Fa~od Shortaaes a The U~ E"rnbassy in Prag~,e repprte that an e~rtraox?dinary sessio~u of the.Ge3mmunist Party Central Co~ni~tee or .the Cabinet has been undex~ay for the past three days, presumably to deal. with rising public discontent ove~? recent food. she~rtages ~ ~ While there is n,o evidence of imminent dramatic action, the ~tbassy has nod witnesped. such e~ctensive grLUnbling and criticism of the government by the workers sine? the Communist coup in ~"ebruary ~.9~.5~ The shortage of meat9 including the disappea~?anc~ of ratior~mfree m?at fre~m factory canteensa eggs, milk, butterq ,lcar~?p~?iced `bread and floux? and th impending revision of worker norms are the principal causes of the discontents Among the reasons e~ffer?d by the embassy fc~r the food shortages a~?e poor management,. untaillingness of the farmers to turn thei~? swine and cattle aver 25X1A to cooverativesand pd~.ferage at the'slaughter houses and store~~ "C~ ~'o Un sual Niilitary lictiyi~ Observedo 25X1C 25X1 C reported e~`bser~ing no Russian troops, ?~!,~s~3s~. ?~? ~_ -pry ~ - or ra raffic during a ~.C~day motet tri throughout the length of Czech di l ki a5 J in ~ra~te c~nents 25X1X une, a crva ~ en ng on os 25X1 C , that his f n ngs par's a sown. as a resu~.t of a trip over a somew a s ar rou a about a month previouslyn 25X1A 25X1A .E>. a'B" '~LTGQSI,AVI,@1's UK and France C~ppos? Yugoslav Membership in ~u~?opean ~'a?y~e~n~ tTnion. US Ambassador Gifford in Landow :repa~rts that the R~?itish and:. F':c?ench Goverprnents are opposed to ~'ugoslav membership in the Eurrspean ]Payments Union {EPU) because such action {7.) would 3nvol~re a drastic revision ~rf the legs.]. basis of the e~rganization, {2} some members might ob~ec~t from. a fear Approved For Release 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79:T01146A000300050001-4 Approved For Reuse 2001/09/04: CIA-RDP79T01146A9q+~300050001-4 TOP SECRET n~~ 25X1A ?f compromising the po].itioa.lly nev.tral cha~aeter of EPLT and further, (3) any action involving Yugoslav membership would entail delays, The Ambassador him self notes that Yugoslav membership.wa~ald not_take care ?~f Yugoslav deficits with the tJSeand non EPU countries$ and Yugpslavia could not fulfill EPI7 obligations trade..liberali~ationg degree of mult~.7.ateral cerntrol and eos~sultat - et~,~ to whieh exceptions would have to be negotiated,. ~To US Ambassador .Allen.. ira Be Coverx~mex~t lgrade recently repo e a e Yugoslav . probably will apply for membership_in EPtT provided the US indicates a willingness to facilitate .its membershipo US Zone Oermarnv Rad.ia Interference Protested The Yugoslav Foreign Office has protested to the STS bnbassy Belgrade.the..alleged violation sirsee 1 May by the radio station Hof R boated. i~t the US Zone cif' Oer~nany of the f~?eq~.ex~~~r assigned tr .Radio Belgrade by internati?nal agx^.eement. The Yugoslav protest acknovrledges that 'thanks. to the kindness of" .American authcsrities in Germs ~ ,s, g ny previo~zs RIAS infrin ement of Radio Belgrade tis frequenoy had beep, reatified~ Meanwhilea STS officials in Germany state that the Yugoslav protest is purely legalistieg sines the lover power of the allegedly offending station makes it technically inconceivable fox? RIAS t? interfere with Radio Belgradee a s gna ory o he 1 OEIdT s The 25X1 A radio frequencies among the various count ~eSsonven on_whieh assigned Europesn, Both Yugoslavia and the ITS~R I~rticipated in this Conventiono C~aninform propaganda .has occasionally touched on alleged U3 intex?fersnce with the frequencies allocated by the Copenhagen Convention through the operation of IISmoontrolled stations in its zones of ac? eupation. TOP SECRET Approved For Release 2001/09/04: CIA-RDP79T01146A000300050001-4 -Approved For Ruse 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T01fi46Aq~300050001-4 Tf~P S~ORET SEC~'It3N ~ (EAST:1' "B~' a Wheat Ooaatrovers ~, t Prec~ state Poiiti~al. Ca?isisq ~?he t1 ~ba.ssy in Athens reports that- the A~x?eek gove~?ast~nt disagreement ogee the le~rel at which wheat pries should. be fixss~ may reaoh propor~ tions ~vhYch would precipitate a political ~rie~,~~- Fpllowi~,g a Parliamentary attack on the goves?t~niexat on 26 dune oaf this issues P ~.nistea? V'enizelos and ~icemPremiea?'P~pandreo~ anaixal~~ined that the goverment cauld not su~?~,ve ia~ Pax?lia.;mea~t if it au~~pted the ESA missioa~as reccaa~?a~dati?ans~ and eatbsequently indicated that they ri~.ght prefer to resig,~ rather thaw face Paa?l~.a~ht in s~appa~rt of the ECA miss3,?~n appra~ved wheat prig?~ '~kae U~ esy has urged ~.~elo~ to display coairage and statesm~,~aip by fa~ing~ if a~e~~ssarya .a Par].ia,~ ~. mentary test on this issaze~ emphaeizi~g`that even-off a purely,politicaT basis it would- seem that a~lv~sca,cy of dheap brew; fer~? the people w~uald be a ~pvpula~? move wi the electorate even if? not- ~+ith P~rli~;n;t ~ 25X1 A 25X1A ;o (~?ls the ~rheat dispute ax?i~es from pressu~?e e eek wheat px~od~ ~~ whs~: axe in fa~oa? of a ~rl~eat pa?i~e than that advocated by the STS ESA mssiaaaa,, I'~ime .nister Beni ~elcs may feel that9 since election. seem ine~ritabl?9 he a~oula~ prefea~ to g?~ out of office now9 without having to take an abvio~.~ly ~~'~sponso:~ed stand against the wishes of internal p~^eestnre g,~upq Q FI? wily ho~vera pz??bably stay on ~atil either 'the electioaas a~?e heldg or a caretaker governrrtent is installed for- the electiaan pe~^fodo Ira Labor ~iet~ban~e?~ F~ e 1'ea~t le Indu:sta? 4 Renewed labor disturbances in I~~ahan in ~onnectisa~a with-the c?n?~inued shutdown of varioustextile milli have tak?~ ,p].s,oe~ ~lash~s ia~ which mn~ wo~?~er was killed. reportedly occura?ed between ~`udeh ~Y~athizers axad opp~asig~g Sa?oups a There ~,~+~~~:s,lso reports of labor distu~?bar~ge$ at, ~ehckaa,h~? and ~azendaraan ~~aspian Sea areal arising fa?~m labor electioa~s vah~ch ~,y ' result in the shutdo aaf the sp~~ ~~,~ A ~ ~~?' ixn the textile Indust Ira s generally u~aderpaid~ a~~?e~~er~, a shortage ~a~ raw .~~erials hay sha~~aly curtailed producti~an in x?ec~ent months ~ ~ Z'he restive oituatioaa .gin this industx?yp unrelated to the oil problem9 is isadicat~,~e of t~,e poor consists?n of the ent~e ?~ranian econo~y,~' whic~h~ ac~gx?ditagly9 leaads itself ~o Tudeh Party exploitation "fin ~~ Go~rernmsa~t Restricts Tx?avel b Fo~?e Hers i Border ~rea~ ? ~? Ix?aq ministry saf Int?~?i?r published in the press ?aa ~7 ~ae~x~ew rega~> 25X1 A lations ~ ~?estrict~ag the travel of fQx?eigxers inn a~?eas of I a r~.ering on Ix?an9 ~urkey~, aa~d ~~~; C~I~iiTo Iraqi, e~an~erx~ ove~? -its fx?on ers refleots the inea~eas~:.g~g teaasion developi.~2g in the Near East4 Iraq has loner been suspic~lous of ~So~riet ixatrigue on its a~orthern frora~ie~^s ~ ire s~ecifica,Y,ly the re~?ent Ixaard.a~a protest giver th? Aresen~e in .Iraq saf auga~sted i~^itish forces aild over the arac~g of a British cruiser` ~.n Ira~~ wate~? opposite Abads,n -will make ? g?v?rnment war~r lest it becsama directly inv~zlved the Iranian oil disputeb _ Approved For Release 2'fl~/~GIA-RDP79T01146A000300050001-4 Approved For Rele'~e 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T01146A000~0050001-4 TDP BECRET nBra Sta~,emate in Ira ? Q? N 11 e otiations, 25X1 C ? the I 25X1C a aq F'e~roleaa G ~ 25X1X m? o ~'. s cu~?e~nt negotiations wit~I q because it fears t ep~p e e of ? a~a ?~taation on Iraq, offera~g ~,, retur t 25X1X 25X1A n o or a subse ent e agreeable to Prime ~3.nister ~ux?~ ~ Said . , ~~NTs ~~ ~ ~ 7 une some the ' 25X1A ~ ~ weeks a er talks between ~ officials anei the Iraqi had been recessed, the ^Irac~i radio announced that the negotiations had been suspended, The ~ompaaay~ ho~rever~ anticipates resuming the, talks in the n?gotiatioaas is not the ~ `~~-~? The main problem conclaade axa a unwi113.ngness of the ~e~mpeny to q but rather the form wh~,ch th~newearrangement shouldutakeBlx?a offer a ,5~~5(7 profit shari ~'~ is plaaaning ~o mplic~ated, b3' the taxatio~technicalitiesucrea edeby thedcom~ana~s composit? interg~tional character and by the number of p ~ concessions it op?~?ates;~,. The Iranian oil situation has made the companyQ s represeati;~~es aous to net?tiate a new agreement; it has. ino fluenced tYae Iraqis to be more ~ insisi~ent on sett],~,ng on the3.a^ own tee ~, The recent Ira i ra natioaa~lis~;i,c sentiment v/hi ~ mi ht result~y reflect increased ~~g r~al? on the ~ Com g in more extr?me demands side .1.~ e~~~do ?~~''? In away events no swift actioaa by eitF~er raB~ .~~~ '~? ~A ''sss ~o t _ p posal has var$ed somewhat aecording~to mess Political bps individual newspaper, there seems to feel~ag in the non?Co.~nunist press that the proposal contai ~ nogeneral '~str~a~s sa and that ~ t sh?~11d be 25X1A ? ~ ____ mmen on .~ ~ i k P~n?nn~ Thou F'a react~,~,n to Malik?s ro k~.s psrsslb' leaa~ng toward peaceo seized upon as a hppe~ul de~elop~n;t nBg~~t.~b?Iriese ~ f ? c 1 " e ~ ., Bu~?x~~?e officials report t?~t custott~s ? 25X1X ~orde.r ~ve been quadrupled. to deter sI~rsonrael at ..the Si omEurmese ~stia~a~e~ that th ~BSling~ 25X1A e scale of fire srcm~gg],ing i8~ x?~cen 25X1X d''~~ to ~~ a, m~antl~.,~ The US consul general considers ~at~r~;centbe Burmese ?ts of about 3~,4Q0 tires a month are not excessive ia~ vied et.~? the 35~~Ck'7~ re8isterec~ gets ~~ ~' ~arc~goon Iles in Burma, and the kaard. ease tY~e s 9 27 ~'~arae 51) a ~~I~N9~x It is duubtf~.~L if the g of tiresp petroleutaa and other ~trate is i ~hi~. from Bu~^ is actually declini 8 ~ ~ntsa Commua~, and the c~apac~. of the mfluntaiaa?~. ~g~Ai~atouYuxaaaa~a~~'~?cv~.~~e$ar liml.ted~ .the ~l~ia~ese are effected tct, exploit Burma. as a strate~,c~ aaaterials se much as possib2;e~ sere of nBee ~F%/1d1~~ Situat~ioaa as Ba 25X1X kok ~e ar^ted ~sch 1,m oYSdta 9.~,,~ ~~ r~P+~'ting tkaa~t the situation r~esultia~ Pram. t}~sa 3 ~.._~_ __?_ - rshs,ll, "~.~3t1.bt9g':9 i s? o'~ s 9 ro _ _ _ a~?e nmu e ~ an that the that conditions or twoP~_ Their optinaa.sam is shared n m s ld b? settled ire a nday who feel tk~at the strength of the c~ ani?litary attach~ses .Bangkok 25X1X 25X1X Approved For Release 2001/09/04 : Cf~-~7~A0'0(~'L~4forc~,s Approved For Relee 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T01146A0061~p0050001-4 ToP ,~~~E'!` is so pr epo~deran`~ that the ultimate vutcoms of the issue is not in deubta ~~.$h. oval officers apparer~~r were not a part of this plot and are rep~?ted to have ordered a cease fire which the Marines refused to ~~~~ ~ ~~~: From available reports i appears that A 'ral Taharn Kami~,i~n;;~. former commander of the E~.~^i~aes a~ad believed to have been under Marine protection since his a~'rest was ordered last March for plotting a coups and General Kash ~~~r,9 recently retuned exiles are responsible for this $ttemp~~ t~ ~averth~?ow the regime, chile the kidnapping of Phibun was well exec~t?d~ the rest of the effort gives indication that it was e~.~'he~ per peed or commenced prematurely since it is doomed t?s silu~rr~ mess given substantial support by either the arm~p or police. the nay?~~' i,nsu~?gents appear to be fa9.~'ly effectively isolated9 and n~;g~t,iat~~c~ff~s fo;~ tkne release of the Premier are likely to commence ~_~ ~:th.c~ near future o ~~ao ~~~~o ~~~ ~?n~ opinion on ~dalik?s Peace Bid, IJS ConGen Hong Kongt in ~ '~ ~~`sip ?f Hong Kong opinion aM r?pc~rt~ that (a~ 1s1ik's cease-fire proposal, persons feel that "the origa.nal Sing-Soviet tee; ~~ f ~~? a Korean settlement are likely to be brought forward again i.n neg~t~ations following a truce;. (b) one grow (ixaclu ~~~tiolists~ believe Malik?s overtures to be sim ~'~ most ges`~~arce~ ~~~ another rou P13' a Propaganda g p (the largest believes ghat the Commer~sts genu~.nely '~iskx t~ end the Korean conflict and achieve their objectives by ~~~~~e~'~~~ although these observers note the possibility mf agg~?ession elsewhere; aptd (d) certain "disillusioned former fell?t~?a~,~'elers~e feel that the proposal, was a result of ohinese insistence on either aid or an end to hostilities and tha'~~ ~~he ~~~ hopes to place on the UN the blame for fail ' ure of negc7 ~ia~~iorci~~ a thus ccn~.nce Pe3,pirig that the war must ~p~,~ca, e!r7tnt~run+. ~ _ ~ _ .. _ _ _ n ~ forges f~^~a~'i Kor?a~ and 1ea~ves it pennto ~ipinget~ bringwforward~ the o1~~~~,e]~ t'~o .demands as welly i.e,~ admi.ssi,on to the tJ~ and title to Ta~.,~o ~~!, ~?ega~?d to the fi~aal act of opinions stated aboveg there has been speculation that the cease-fire bid was a result of Chixaese un lne~s ?~~ persist in the Korean adventure without a~~d and Soviet n~vrillingness to risk an a greater Stav' such sid6 xpansion of hostilities by --r----- ~~ a ~~,~~-4eu?rs prom the pos~.ti?n eta~d. ' ~'ree~? GkioTJ ~,?lai on ~ February, namelya that Peipir ~m D~Tsa~cow tea Pyo~gye,~g, Tlae Noa~th, K~ares~as agreed '$dbw~a the line"'with ~seow? s ~a~: and then, took advantage of the occasioa~ to protest against the cafa~t~su that tl-ae US is aztaLlli,~ing Japanese sold3.ers ins Ka~x~ea and is "tx?~i~i~;x Japanese ~olteers fea~? tlai~ Kore~i freantaa+ C3~1e ixano~retion was noted i,~ t~aat~'the.;.~~r*` , that the North Korean r?ege ?must be gx?anted flee right to participates in the Japanese ~'e~ac~ ~x?eat~ro (~ l+'13ISa, ~9 J~a 5l~ ; Cc g~~o It ~,,s xaot 1ael.a.~ved, tima~, tixe~?e is a TAP " RET Approved For Release 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T01146A000300050001-4 Approved Forease 2001/09/04 :CIA-RDP79T011400300050001-4 T4F SECRET `d3.~?ect connection between this Aiorth Korean comrn~anique and the -Malik puce bid, alth?ugh the former carries a. 23 June date. It fides not appear likely that the Nearth Koreans are seriously advancing ax~y clemard for particip~.tican in the Japanese peace treaty as one of the political terms for a Kereaxa peace -settlement, but rather to offset-the South Korean request for participation and thus emphasis to Ce~~naunist ,regime's claim t4 be the legal govercunent o~ gates.: TCP