CURRENT INTELLIGENCE DIGEST

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP79T01146A001200020001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 11, 1952
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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SECURITY IWOIEMATION
US OFFICIALS ONLY
11 August 1952
OCI No. 6459
Copy No.
295
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE DIGEST
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This digest of significant reports has been prepared primarily
for the internal use of the Central Intelligence Agency. It does
not represent a complete coverage of all current reports re-
ceived. Comments represent the immediate views of the Office
of Current Intelligence.
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
SECRET
SECURITY INFoRMATIoN
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THIS MATERIAL CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE NATIONAL
DEFENSE OF THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE
ESPIONAGE. LAWS, TITLE 18, USC, SECSO 793 AND 794, THE
TRANSMISSION OR REVELATION OF WHICH IN ANY MANNER TO AN
UNAUTHORIZED PERSON IS PROHIBITED BY LAW.
to Czech Communists step up production and socialization
campaign: The US Embassy in Prague believes that the Czech
Communist regime now feels itself strong enough to take
vigorous measures to increase industrial production and li-
quidate "class enemies." The Ministry of State Control and
the newly created Ministry of Railroads have been giver ex-
traordinary powers to deal with production lags and labor
problems. The drive against the kulaks is being intensified,
and the Embassy anticipates that the deportations of "po-
litically unreliables" from Prague, Bratislava and Brno will
spread. (C Prague 80, 8 Aug 52)
Comment: An intensified socialization drive has been
apparen. both Czechoslovakia and Hungary since June.
The Czech campaign points up the fact that the party has
recovered from the effects of last winter's major purges.
2. Czech Minister of Agriculture complains of "serious
shortcomings" in harvesting progress: on August zec
Minister o Agri cu ure Josef Nepomucky complained of "serious
shortcomings" in the progress of the harvest. In an urgent appeal
to all farmers, cooperatives, tractor stations and local gov-
ernment organizations, he stressed the importance of night work
and proper organization in order to assure a satisfactory grain
harvest, (R FBIS Prague, 6 Aug 52)
Comment: Earlier reports by government officials pre-
dicts an. excellent harvest and indicated that the machine
tractor stations and the cooperatives were making satisfactory
preparations. These groups have been exhorted to aid private
farmers in fulfilling their harvest quotas. The newly or-
ganized Ministry of Agricultural Supplies is authorized to
"encourage" private farmers to join collectives In the light
of these facts, Nepomucky's complaint about shortcomings in
organization appears to set the stage for the forceful collect-
ivization of agriculture on a large scale.
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FAR EAST
3, Keenan sees civil war in Japan as Soviet aim: Ambassador
Keenan a eves that a primary o ,sc ive o oviet Far
Eastern strategy is the capture of Japan by an eventual
Communist-led civil rebellion. He bases this conclusion on
an analysis of an article by the fugitive Japanese Communist
leader, Kyuichi Tokuda, which recently appeared in the Comin-
form journal and in the Moscow press.
This program, Kennan notes, would require "extensive
united-front tactics," to induce large segments of the popu-
lation to accept Communist leadership in armed insurrection.
The Ambassador believes that use of the Soviet Army at some
stage is possible, but that Moscow would
to come through a "domestic upheaval." prefer the conquest
(C Moscow 259, 7 Aug A52)
Comment: The official Communist line in Asia since 1949
has emp as zed "liberation" by Communist-led native armies,
The Japanese Communists belatedly adopted this militant policy
in October 1951. Tokuda's recent article, however, suggested
a change in emphasis by criticizing the Japanese Communists
for neglecting political activity,
The Japanese Communists are unlikely to gain sufficient
popular support for a successful armed revolt in the foresee-
able future.
4. Japan disappointed over UN ineffectiveness on Japanese
POW ques on: m assa or urp y reports that the iveness in andlin the question of s nb fec-
the Soviet Union has considerably dampened Japanese enthusiasm
toward this type of approach, and made them realize the UN's
limitations in the face of Soviet intransigence, Manifesta-
tions of this attitude can be seen by the Japanese apathy
toward participating in the UN's Geneva POW meetings, and
further by their attempts to utilize other approaches to the
POW problem.
Murphy suggests that it would be desirable to again
consider a bilateral approach,by the United States to the
Soviet Union. Although unlikely to succeed, he believes that
it would be of significant value in satisfying Jananese
sentiment on the eve of the coming elections. American
interest could be further demonstrated by having American
d
elegates to the Geneva meeting anfl ranking government officials
pre
prepareAstrong parallel statementsion this subject. (C Tokyo
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5. Peiping reportedly plans to declare war on United States:
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Chinese Partisans of Peace and other Communist contacts that
they expect an "early declaration of war" against the United
States by the Peiping regime. The source, an official in the
French Ministry of Interior, suggests that the be
a deception.
25X1A
Comment: Several other sources have reported that Peiping
was preparing for World War-III in the near future. I I
would not be'likely to have access to informa-
of this type.
The significance of such a Chinese action would lie in its
automatic invocation of the Sino-Soviet treaty of 1950. By
designating its forces in Korea as "volunteers" and by failing
to declare a formal state of war with the United States,
Peiping has declined to invoke this treaty.
Both Moscow and Peiping appear interested in avoiding an
expansion of the Korean conflict at this time.
6. Rice-rubber barter negotiations between China and
Indonesia reported: Hong Kong firm, acting on behalf of an
Indonesian c lien , offered 5 000 long tons of rubber 25M Chinese company in Tientsin,
In exchange runner, the CnInese
are to s p 45, 00 metric tons of rice.
The Indonesian client is said to be "very close" to his
government and has already obtained a license for the barter
25X1A deal.
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Comment: Although different in some details, this
repor gT enerally supports information of a China-Indonesia
barter deal
According to a agreement as already
been concluded.
7. MacDonald's statement emphasizes Vietnamese independence:
British Commissioner General for Southeast Asia MacDonald
may have been intending to force the French to clarify their
relationship with the Associated States when he called
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attention to Letourneau's June statement in Washington that
Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia enjoy what amounts to dominion
status within the French Union. At a press-conference
MacDonald praised Letourneau's sincerity which has "proved
beyond doubt thatFrance's purpose is'the complete national
freedom of Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia on a basis of fra-
ternal equality with France and other free nations."
MacDonald was in effect outlining the aims of Vietnamese
nationalism, not current French policy. Letourneau's remark
elicited a rebuke by President Auriol and was censored in
Saigon and apparently in Paris. (Factual data from: U Saigon
332, 8 Aug 52)
8. Communist coalition reported in Burma: The American
Embassy in Rangoon has received severe reports that the
leaders of Burma's two Communist parties and the pro-Communist
PVO insurgents agreed to form a coalition at a recent meeting
in northern Burma. The Embassy comments that such a develop-
ment would be in line with the current Communist line calling
for unity among insurgents, and that their current desperation
may encourage the effective integration which they have
previously failed to achieve. (C Rangoon 202, 8 Aug 52)
Comment: The Burmese Army's pressure on the Communists
in een ra urma has been unusually constant through most of
1952. There have also been reports that the Chinese Communists
have insisted on a united Communist front as a prerequisite to
aid from China..
9. Burmese Defense Minister seeks increase in military
expenditures: The American Army Attache in Rangoon has been
confidentially informed that the Burmese Defense Minister is
seeking 390,000,000 kyats for the armed forces in 1953 as
compared to 220,000,000 in 1952, expects that the 25X1A
request will be granted. (S US ARMA Rangoon 78, 8 Aug 52)
Comment: The Burmese have been expanding their armed
forces and-intensifying anti-Communist operations during the
past several months. The Defense Minister has stated that he
expects to restore peace by the end of 1953.
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10. Iranian note to Great Britain indicates no desire to
compromises Ambassador HenUerson-reports that the uguat
Iranian note to Great Britain which offered to reopen oil
negotiations was ill-timed and appeared to nullify current
American and British efforts to prepare a joint approach to
Iran. (S Tehran 579, 7 Aug 52)
Comment: The intemperate Iranian note demands several
million pounds allegedly owed to Iran by the Anglo-Iranian
Oil Company. It shows that Mossadeq has no intention of com-
promising with the British despite Iran's desperate need for
funds.
11. Iranian peasants becoming restive: Unrest in Iran is
now spreading to the traditionally apathetic and conservative
peasants. The American Embassy has been receiving a growing
number of reports from various sections of the country which
feature politically ambitious Mullahs inciting the peasants
against landlords. Some of the arguments used by the Mullahs
appear to follow the Communist line and to arouse class anta-
gonism rather than to present a constructive approach to the
land reform program. (C Tehran 571, 7 Aug 52)
Comment: Mossadeq is sponsoring an agrarian reform
program; he is undoubtedly aware of its usefulness as a
supplement to the anti-British campaign.
The approach to the peasants, like so many other
National Front maneuvers, lends itself to Communist exploitation.
12. Britain to propose conference to safeguard free use of
Suez Cana : The British Foreign office plans to propose a
confidential conference of maritime powers using the Suez
Canal, including the United States and France, to decide what
action to take if Egypt should interfere with shipping, other
than that bound for Israel. Also discussed would be guarantees
which might be jointly sought from Egypt. (S London 659,
6 Aug 52)
Comment: Egyptian Prime Minister All Maher has expressed
a des ri to reach a general understanding with Great Britain,
and appears anxious to encourage the development of an
atmosphere of trust preparatory to negotiations between the
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two countries. However, Great Britain evidently fears that
the prevailing political forces in Egypt may eventually re-
quire the present regime to adopt a strongly nationalistic
attitude and to express it in a dramatic move such as an at-
tempt to restrict the use of the canal.
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WESTERN EUROPE
13. East Germans plan military vehicle production for
Alert Police at freight car plants: The owa- agen au-
au zen factory in East Germany is allegedly scheduled
to convert from the production of railroad cars to the
production of "military vehicles" at the end of 1952.
Tracked vehicles of 120 horsepower and capable of towing
artillery will reportedly be produced.
American observers in Frankfurt report that the con-
version of several freight car factories to the production
of transport for the Alert Police is now "clear," although
the plants involved and the level of production have not
been established. (S Frankfurt Sitrep 29, C-3, 5 Aug 52)
Comment: Factories believed scheduled for conversion
are now producing for the Russians. The generally dilapidated
condition of the East German railroad system will not,
therefore, be aggravated by the move. Apparent willingness
of the Soviet Union to relinquish at least some of its
reparations or export claims on the East German economy
may suggest one means by which the Russians intend to sup-
port East German remilitarization.
14. Anti-Communists in West Berlin denied arms: Despite
American objections, the Allied Commandants in West Berlin
turned down a request by city officials that certain anti-
Communists be allowed to carry arms in order to forestall
future kidnappings. The French Commandant said that he
would order the arrest and trial of any West German who
was apprehended with arms even though authorized to carry
them by British or American authorities.
In response to another West Berlin appeal for anti-
kidnapping measures, the Commandants agreed that police-
men should be stationed at major sector-crossing points,
and that motor vehicles should be forced to slow down or
stop at these crossings. The British Commandant indicated
that he was "frightened" by the possibility of a shooting
incident if a vehicle failed to stop when so ordered by
the police. (S Berlin 248, 8 Aug 52)
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Comment: Thus far the West Berlin Senate has ad-
vocated tar tronger anti-kidnapping measures than the
Allies have been willing to countenance. The Allies,
particularly British and French authorities, seem to
feel that kidnappings cannot be prevented, and that
strong measures might lead to an uncontrollable incident.
Except for the barricades set up between the city
and the surrounding countryside on the order of the
Berlin Senate, the countermeasures so far adopted will
not effectively hinder further kidnappings.
15. Austro-Polish trade talks broken off: The Polish
delegate at the us ro- o s trade negotiations in
Vienna has "temporarily" suspended discussions and
returned to Warsaw. Prior to his departure, he proposed
an interim three-month extension of the existing agree-
ment with a 25 percent increase in selected quotas.
The Austrians are reportedly receptive to this pro-
posal; they believe, however, that the possibility of
concluding a new agreement in November will depend on
the urgency of Poland's need to sell coal at a time when
Austria is faced with a winter coal shortage. (C Vienna
390, 8 Aug 52)
Comment: The probability that Poland is counting on
a weaken! n'g?of Austria's bargaining position emphasizes
Austria's need to use its favorable coal credit with
Poland immediately to increase its stockpiles of coal.
16. Austrian trade contacts may be sought by Russians
ieves that e an icipated arrival during the September
trade fair of a Soviet delegation headed by Deputy Min-
ister of Foreign Trade Zakharov may be related to recent
Austrian proposals for trade talks. (S Vienna 377, 7 Aug
52)
Comment: Foreign Minister Gruber recently informed
the American Embassy that his government has tentatively
decided to offer to negotiate a trade agreement with the
Soviet Union, since it was under strong pressure from
Austrian businessmen, and expected a Soviet initiative.
Gruber, while agreeing to postpone an approach until
September, urged an American expression of opinion by that
time since he anticipated that the issue would "become.
public this autumn."
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Dutch Foreign Minister disgusted with Schuman Plan
meeting: Dutch Foreign Minister Stikker as I-nT-o-rmed
the American Embassy in The Hague that at the recent
meeting in Paris he told the Schuman Plan ministers of
his disgust at their "pettiness, indecision and nationalism."
In an effort to put an end to the "scheming" of
France, Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg for individual ad-
vantage in the organization, he offered to forego such
advantages for the Netherlands provided the other countries
would "get together, organize, and get something done."
Monnet, the real author of the Schuman Plan, twice offered
to resign and accused French Foreign Minister Schuman of
having "sunk the cause of European unity."
Stikker does not expect any concrete results from
the current meeting in Luxembourg. (S The Hague 194, 7
Aug 52)
18. Third attempt to form a Dutch Cabinet being made:
Zt orma eur and Labor Par y parliamentary lea er
Donker is attempting to form a coalition to include the
Labor and Catholic Parties and two of the minor parties.
Should the Anti-Revolutionary Party, one of the minor
conservative parties, continue to be adamant on the dis-
tribution of the cabinet portfolios, Donker will reportedly
proceed to form a government without this party's participation.
(C The Hague 193, 7 Aug 52)
Comment: Since the June elections, two attempts by
Socialist an Catholic party leaders to form a cabinet
have failed. Agreement has reportedly been reached on the
prospective government?s program, and the snag in the
negotiations relates to the distribution of portfolios.
Labor Party leaders would prefer a three-party coalition.
Prolonged negotiations on forming a government are
usual in the Netherlands.
19. Danes fear US intends to eliminate all East-West trade:
Accor ng o e m assy in open agen, a Danes have
long been concerned that American efforts to control the
export of strategic items to the Orbit may indicate a trend,
intentional or otherwise, toward the elimination of all
trade with the USSR and its Satellites, They consider such
a result undesirable both economically and politically.
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LATIN AMERICA
20. Argentine labor may attempt coup: The General Con-
federation o Labor may attempt an early coup,
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Similar information comes
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Comment: The death of Senora de Peron has increased
the I e ood of conflict between labor and the army.
This is the first report suggesting that labor is prepared
to take direct action to preserve its influence on the
government.
The reported existence of an army plot to overthrow
Peron, tentatively scheduled for the near future, might
cause the General Confederation of Labor to attempt a pre-
ventive coup to "protect" Peron.
The Embassy believes that Danish willingness to co-
operate in trade controls would improve if the US gave
a clear and convincing demonstration that it is not seeking
the abolition of all trade with the East. (S Copenhagen 169,
8 Aug 52)
Comment: Denmark has given only half-hearted cooperation
in CO ma ers, Similar sentiments are evident in other
Western European countries.
The General Confederation of Labor is effectively in-
filtrated by Communists.
Comment: This is just one incident in the scattered
violencural areas during the past ten weeks. Opposition
to the reform law is general among landowners. Opposition
has also been evident on several occasions among the farm
area where the disturbance occurred. (R FBIS
7 Aug 52)
were alerted and a state of siege may be declared in the
Scattered violence continues in rural Guatemala over
agrarian 're orm: An arm. attack was made on a group or
arm workers gathered to hear government officials explain
the newly-enacted agrarian reform law. At least fifty
persons were reportedly wounded. The army and the police
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workers who are the presumed beneficiaries of the law.
Some of them identify the law with Communism, and several
times pro-government "agrarian reform missionaries" have
been run out of villages by mobs of Indians shouting
"Down with Communism:" and "We don't want a Communist law:"
Incidents of local violence can be expected to con-
tinue after the initiation of expropriation proceedings
next month.
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