'LIMITS TO GROWTH' CONFERENCE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00308A000100020009-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: November 17, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 7, 2000
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: November 10, 1975
• Content Type: MF

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10 November 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Training
THROUGH Chief, Intelligence Institute
SUBJECT "Limits to. Growth" Conference
1. From October 19-21, 1975 I attended the First
Biennial "Limits to. Growth" Conference, held at The
Woodlands Inn, a conference center about 20 miles north of
Houston, Texas. The Conference was co-sponsored by the Club
of Rome, the University of Houston, and the Mitchell Energy
and Development Corporation. It was attended by over 300
business leaders, scientist`s, government officials, and
university professors. Dr. Dennis Meadows. of Dartmouth,
co-author of the Club of Rome's "Limits to Growth" report
in 1972, served as conference chairman.
2.. The keynote speaker was Dr. Sicco Mansholt of the
Netherlands, former president of the European Common Market,
who warned that."catastr.ophies are unavoidable" for the
world's peoples in the next 25 years unless there are funda-
mental changes in attitudes and distribution of wealth,
together with. a restoration of nature and ecological balance.
He noted that famine already grips Bangladesh and the drought-
stricken belts of Africa. If it spreads through major regions
such as India, Mansholt said, it could lead to destructive
"civil war." Jay Forrester of MIT, who devised the computer
modeling on which "The Limits to Growth" was based, agreed
with Mansholt that there is increasing global awareness and.
concern over the problems of growth. Both Mansholt and
Forrester stressed that solutions must and will come from
peoples rather than governments.
3.' Dennis Meadows noted that unending economic growth
has traditionally been regarded as the solution to the world's
problems. He pointed out, though, that after 20 years of
unprecedented growth, we have a widening gap between the rich
and the poor. Meadows emphasized that alternatives to growth
does not mean "no growth and an end to humanity's progress.
ADMIN t V
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4. Opposing viewpoints cropped up at many points during
the Conference. Senator Jacob Javits of New York discussed
the Balanced Growth and, Economic Planning Act which he and
Senator Humphrey had introduced earlier this year. Essentially
the bill's purpose is to develop a "Balanced Growth Policy"
that strives to meet our basic needs for housing, education,
jobs, public service, a healthy and better environment, and
sets our priorities in these areas and proposals for achieving
these goals. The Javits-Humphrey bill would create a three
member Economic Planning Board in the Executive Office of the
President. Two other Senators, John Culver of Iowa, and
Mike Gravel of Alaska, challenged both the concept and need
for this type of legislation as did many of the business
leaders.
5. Four prominent panelists on the world-wide energy
crisis were at odds as to the solution of the problem. Amory
Lovins, consultant for the United Nations Environmental
Program, said the problems of nuclear energy are great enough
to warrant abandonment of this approach to the world's energy
needs. Energy consumption. does not need to increase to
achieve social goals, he said, and U.S. energy consumption
could be cut in half. Lovins was immediately challenged by
Harry E. Bovay, Jr., president of the National Society of
Professional Engineers, who said "an energy shortage means a
job shortage, and a job shortage means depression." Bovay
felt that engineers and scientists are capable of advances
that can continue to supply our needs indefinitely. The
third panelist (whose views were reflected by a number of
other speakers) was Iranian ambassador-at-large, Jahangir
Amouzegar, who warned of the social and political limits to
growth. The third world nations, he stated, are not asking
the world not to grow, but are asking for shared growth. The
fourth panelist in this session, Alvin F. Hil e ran of the
University of Houston, was highly optimistic about the future
use of solar energy capabilities on a commercially feasible
basis. Solar energy, he predicted, could meet 10 to 20 per
cent of U.S. energy requirements by the end of the century.
6. Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute propounded his
well-known optimistic view toward. growth--vehemently disagreeing
with Dennis Meadows and the Club of Rome group. Growth is
inevitable, desirable, and there are virtually no limits to
what technology can do, according; to Kahn. He projects the
world 200 years hence as having 15 billion people with a
$20,000 per capita income and a gross world product of $300
trillion. Kahn was easily the most controversial speaker at
the Conference, not only because of his thesis, but also
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because of his manner and tone. He was described by various
people at my table in such terms as: "brilliant", "gross",
"obscene", and "he's the only guy who has his head on straight."
His views of course, were most acceptable to the oil industry
executives present.
7. One of the most thoughtful presentations, and one
with considerable implications for intelligence, was made by
Lester Brown, former AID and Dept. of Agriculture official who
is now president of the Woridwatch Institute. Brown traced
the increasing dependency on the "North American breadbasket"
over the past 25 years. In the 1960's, while economic planners
emphasized industrial growth at the expense of agriculture,
the Green Revolution was launched, and food production surged
ahead in countries like India, Pakistan, Turkey, Mexico and
the Philippines. In the 70's, according to Brown, the food
pendulum has swung back; food shortages are rampant and have
contributed to global double-digit inflation and political
instability.
As one example of the devastating role of rapid
population growth, Brown compared population growth in North
America and Latin America.. While North America's population
has stabilized, Latin America's has escalated at an explosive
rate. Several Latin American countries such as Mexico,
Venezuela, Peru and Brazil have annual population growth rates
of 3% or more, a rate which leads to a nineteenfold population
.increase within a century.. Another significant point made by
Brown was that political expediency has prompted governments
to favor industry over agriculture and the interests of vocal
urban populations over those of rural food producers. The
Soviet Union, Brown felt, provides one example of how agri-
cultural inefficiency and political expediency combine to
undermine efforts at increasing food production.
Brown's solution:: deepening interdependence in the
world will require a global food strategy. The backbone of
this strategy should be a worldwide effort to slow down popula-
tion growth, and to reduce over-consumption among the world's
more affluent people. Failure to cope with food shortages,
ecological deterioration, and overpopulation could lead to
major economic, political and social upheavals in many parts of
the world.
8. The format of the Conference consisted of early
morning and evening plenary sessions, and "concurrent panels"
which were held throughout the day. It was only possible,
therefore, to attend a few of the 14 different panel discussions
which were held. I was, however, able to exchange ideas with
others who had attended different panel sessions, and to get
a pretty clear picture of the total thrust of the Conference.
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Some of the panelists handed out papers in advance, which
also made it possible to gain a broader perspective.
9. In a private conversation with Dennis Meadows, I
mentioned that we were looking forward to having him on our
Guest Speaker Program in January, 1976. Meadows said he was
pleased to have been invited, and went on to say that he felt
our Agency was in the forefront in government circles in
recognizing the problems which were being raised and discussed
at the Conference.
10. One of my major purposes in attending the Conference
was to look for new themes, topics, and ideas which could be
introduced into the Senior Seminar or other OTR courses, and
to look for new guest speaker possibilities. I can see valid
reasons for including a "Limits to Growth" approach in various
.segments of the Senior Seminar: the Domestic Block, the
'International Block, and the Science Block. (Some speakers
in the present Seminar have addressed themselves pro or con to
this theme.) Among speakers for possible consideration are
the following:
Amory Lovins, UN Consultant
William Ophuls, Political Commentator.
Donald N. Michaels, Prof. of Organizational Behavior,
University of Michigan
Robert Theobold, Author and Futurist
Senator Mike Gravel (will be speaking in current
Senior Seminar)
Mrs. Jean Houston, Foundation for Mind Research
(a colleague of Margaret Mead)
John Richardson, American University (Associated
with Club of Rome project "Mankind at the Turning
Point")
Elliot Janeway, Economic Columnist and Publisher
Lester Brown, Worldwatch Institute
11. Regarding Senator Gravel, I had the pleasure of
dining with him and an aide, Bob Mitchell, the first evening
of the Conference. In a later discussion with Mitchell, I
asked if he thought the Senator might be interested in meeting
with one of our future Seminars. Mitchell's reaction was
positive. On returning to Washington, I contacted George
Cary who commented favorably on Senator Gravel, and suggested
that since he (Cary) had not had time to line up another
Congressman for the present Seminar, we might want to invite
Senator Gravel to speak to our present group. Arrangements
were subsequently made through Bob Mitchell, and the Senator
will be with us the afternoon of 18 November. Senator Gravel
has been instrumental in proposing "Law of the Sea" legislation
and has also been involved in other congressional matters
related to environmental and ecological problems.
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12. A few days after returning from Houston I briefed
the current Senior Seminar on the Conference program and the
issues discussed. Considerable interest was aroused (more
than I expected!) and the group asked if they could view the
Herman Kahn tape of his auditorium performance at the Agency,
and continue informal discussions of these problems, in terms
STATINTL of their intelligence implications, at a later date, possibly
during the last week at M We plan to do this.
13. In summary, the Conference was worthwhile and
stimulating because of the importance of the theme and the
wide diversity of scholars, economists, government officials,
corporation executives and others who brought their expertise
and opinions to bear on these perplexing and significant
problems. The Conference will convene again in two years--
location to be announced. I would recommend that the Agency
send several observers next time so that complete coverage of
the Conference can be obtained.
STATINTL
Chief, Senior Seminars Branch
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