AGRICULTURAL PROSPECTS / GOVERNMENT POLICIES / POPULATION DILEMMA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00809A000500220014-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 14, 2000
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: September 30, 1953
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2091/03/04: CIA-RDP80-00809A000500220014-9
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CONFIDJ NTTAL
SECURITY INFORMATION
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
INFORMATION REPORT
Agricultural Prospects/Government
Policies/Population Dilemma
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1. Egypt's future agricultural prospects are d.'-n. Although the delta area,
which cou prises at least half of the nation's six to six and one-half million
acres, is one of the world's ?richeat agricultural regions - with consistent
triple-cropping - a number nt' at and present problems are combining to
present apparently insoluble difficulties. Those difficulties may be
considered under the following'Iheadinga: expansion of acreage, maintenance
o,: present agricultural land and pressures of population.
2. An to expansion of acreage, it!ia estimated that perhaps an many as
one and one-half million additional acres might be brought Tmaer oult.vation
in Egypt. However, little, If any, of this expansion could be aocompliehed
by pushing out from the present borders of tilled land (genoralav, the broad
delta leads between Cairo and the Aoeatta and Damietta mouths of the Nile
o the northeast and northwest;. and the narrow river valloy stretching south
s"rom Cairo some 400 miles to the Aswan dam). Instead, plaza for now acreage
oavislion elaborate irrigation projects in the now-dosort land between Cairo
Inad Alexandria and similar projects along the line ct the great cases to the
west. While it is evident that' any expansion is desirable, it must also be
oonaidorod that the maximum iurrease would be little more than 15 percent,
that the cost of mush expansion is nearly prohibitive and, finally, that
the inflexible nature of Egypt's peauant mesa is such as to make resettlement
of farmers on such rnst-of-the-wsy undo nearly impounible. Egypt's prensent
regime, admirable as it is for the uprooting of aneiont vic' and corruption,
L6 military in its thinking and! therefore bolieves,that orders are to be
obeyed; the Rgyptian pcanantry,, however, fails to share thin view. If the
military planners attempt resettlement by fiat, thorn will he an inevitable
collision with peasant stubbornnene.
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3. This peasant inflexibility lies in part at the base of the second difficulty,
adequate maintenance of present. agricultural lands in the delta. Geologically,
this zone in presumed to be a former shallow b-isin of the Mediterranean 'rich
has been silted-up by the Nile floods. What_ver its history, this soil to
heavy with sodiua.'and its increasing alkalinity'is forcing potentially rich
land out of production each year. Despite this; Egypt's "traditional"
fertilizer is Chilean sodium nitrate, the use of which merely accentuates
the problem. Yet the introduction of other fertilizers and parallel
efforts to right alkalinity Are s+.accessiblly reoisted by the peasants,
whose experience has taught them that Chilean fertilizer means green crops.
4. With regard to maintenance, the now regimo'o policy of land distribution
(ahioh is aimed at breaking up the large delta estates and limits
individual land ownership to no more than 200 acres) must be criticized
from the viewpoint of agricultural efficiency. The greater number of the
large-delta landholdings were "model farms" in the US sense: mechanized,
efficient, well-maintained agricultural enterprises, often embracing
10 thousand acres. While no one can e':ny the political advantages in the,
Government'; notion to break up those holdings; there is nonetheless a
"break-eyon",point, below.which mechanization is no longer econenic41 r
practical. this brook-even
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one.thousand acres:. certainly the present meximum?of 200 acres is too small.
.$ff'icioncy, : and therefore production, will ' nevitably suff os .
5. The t -salty - and one which makes the preceding ones fade in
comparlaoa. rWpt'a rapidly expanding population. The nation holds
some .22 mt 74,an people today, an compared with something around six million
three gonerstions ago. Yet Egypt's agricultursllpotential is boat suited
to ,support & ,population of no more than eight million. This phonomimily
rapid,,oxpausson is- usually attributed to medical', advances, although today
such publlo?k-c.1th indices as the incidence-of trachoma and the percentage
of -blind in the population are shocking to a Westerner. Whatever the cause,
the inevitable cure that comes to the Weptern.mind - birth control - is
apparently u:}thinkable for thF Moslem. Yet the fact remains that Achievement
of the goals of Agricultural expansion and'incroased,produc:tion, even it
possible, Is gere]y & palliative .men viewed in the light of a mounting
population burden.
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