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Document Creation Date: 
December 15, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 27, 2003
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January 5, 1948
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1'C1:1 1(0.. ~q r~ved~, !. his is For Rele Pr!'''CfPJ A~e 1 ~3 1,, _IAi E".~_ I.I~JLY1~' I1..4 t~,o rr:fir t~e res4ara, u::e LNfi-I o' t.Trai. d intolI igence nnalys tz . COUNTRY Poland SUBJECT' Conniunist, s Views en Ne.ct d 25X1 25X1 s ~n? ~-~ ? 7NIft DOCU37OI:YAINi TA INFORMATION 1NC 7NC 'i i ANitIAL JC 7CC NCL OF TNG UMORNITED C..: . AI W(TM: TNC N?f?N1f10 C T THC ITZLPO1~ROt AC 50 U. .$ E C.. yT ANO B2. AO ANCNOAO. ITEM TNANGM T.dION OTTt TNO RCY0LAT1ON OP ITS CONYCM13 ?N ANY YANP~IT To Al UNAUTNO$1200 VCROGN ?I 10 PJT01110Ai CU DY LAW. IT MAY NOT OC EPf:00UCED in Ono WA* V i on 1,, PINT, 0', OTHCR TNAN THE i'TATC. L'AR. Dn UA~Y CC,A: I CNT0. EI:LcPT OY PCRLIIGGIGN OP TITS OIR3GTon O7 A C$NWIA: I7JTQLtZr.CG. lyit7+..7.PS~T'~6u~,:1: 4f?~C.~~r~.1..__>-~.'C'F1ar*. DATE DISTP 5 "Jatnzs ry 19r, NO. Off' PAGES NO. OF ENCF S. (L 1Fr1 VEF.OVa SUPPLEMENT To Iii PORT? M4. cmrr-~ ITnJAfrv 25X1 Po:.sibility oP_c:ar 1. Leaders of. the ~11CP/b (All ltvosian RR MY of Bolshevvi cs) state that: (11-.) 'I,ar is not i.mmL ont and is unlikely to break out before completion of the.USSR's uecond Five Year Plana (b) The is lo- ona, despite their use of the atom bomb and propaganda as r,blacknnail," will not start a rrar., (c) (d) Il war doer como it will be at a tima chosen by the USSR. Time is workin, for the USSR. The US ":ri11 achieve the r6conat2 action of Germany and Japer and :.ill settle her Internal problems, but in t e mean- tine, Siberia will be developed as the richest arsenal in Eurasia and Communist influence in central and eastern Europe u:111 be &O.LrmIL-r eata- bli.shed 2. Ccaaunistn in Poland claim that the USSR does not want war but is preparing for it bee u ee the Soviets believe the fol?.arring troricn indicate a possibility of eventual Nor . (a) US expenditures for aria nen'ie during 1947 h ve, according to Noise Drogi Glow koads), reached. a total of USw18 bilUou. (b) US capitalists are pointing bovard ear because it opens markets and pro- vides an easy road to prosperity? Those capitalists are aware of the. groaing unemployment and difficult social conditions which have brought the US to the verge of an economic cr5.o3.s. Family living coats in the US have risen over I.,C,GOii since 1913 (c) US expansionist policies are demonstrated by her stLlengthening of anti. dcmocrstic elements in central Europe; her toloratio.= of Fascist regimes in Greece, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, and Trance (tta Gaulle); Ond by the Marshall Plana STATE YVAP, L L( k4 C..C:~N IDEN l IAL . lease 20.04/03/31 CIA-RDP80-00809A000.50083.0157-4 CLASSU1CAT1ON CONWIDENT.L".Je NAVY s MrRIEIJTlON Approved For Rely 00 :1 V HL. 809A000500830157-4 (e) l?Iro U has instituted a Teat anti?-A:orwnist drive to p+u?Le bui-va,:erican Ole:-;emsCroc her yrny and a ovornnent. in?a3 ects for Cppoei.r Forces in 'icxt Jiar 25X1. (d) Tirfl 96 iS build in.- and expanding; hsr :Aloes in Greenli'.nd. 3. i.ccordin ; to the Coaxrunist regime in Noland, the USStt i ;akea the fol.:r orr - g objective eatii?:atc of inn-'lo-:.axon War potential: (a) r.o ete: (1) The atonic bomb. (2) :tcserves of raw material (3) Efficient indufArial organization and highly developed industrial technique. (4) Gold reserves. (5) Inhorent lve of freedom. (b) c.caknesses: (1) Cirowin,, economic friction bet.veerr the U:: and treat r1tain? (2) The utru Cles for incoporu2onee occurring iu :an. colonial possessions. ' (3) The Negro problen: with its threat of internal auv-er to the U> and of revolution in uirica. (u) (7) (?t) The forrcati.on of a Slav bloc in i:''ur )p.^: and the Soviet attenpts to establish Slavonic solidarity vrith'l tc the US. G (y) 'Plie activitico of the (xrr:erful Corrnunist oranizat:ions throughout the world. The general desire fcr peace in the r:orld and the specific anti- pathy for war arson' the people of the iJJ. The US' lack of a lar;;e stardin^ array. The atomic boat.) alone cannot determine the course of .Far.. Large crmics are necessary to occupy and consolidate corun:ere' +r_rritory. In the event of ;Far the U -5a could liquidate all US footholds in Europe and ocauioy Asia before the arrival of hnglo-?Snxon troops. It. The USS,t's estimate of its own war potential inclu6es the following factors; (a) hsseta : (1) A po,rerful industry. (2) i'ret.onious reserves of raw materials and rnarrpov or, (3) (1) The largevt army in the vrorld in an excellent itato of training and oqui,l::rerit. Cor,-.muriist purties throughout the world :rhieh are presently ,raging a purer. ideological 'Far ao agent:; of the Comintern will bacorre, on the outbreak of :gar, active instruments of sabotage, espionage, and propa:;anda; (5) All iuurlc-aoxon .realmesues can ',e credited as Soviet assets. Approved For.F3elease_2004103/3T ; CIA.RDP80-00809A000500830157-4: Approved For Release-2 04 RDP80-00809A000500830157-4 U:li' it IL i WTi~ u , -3 (u) ..eckt ez sos: 25X1 14l _V..ita'tiort ::e'.l.Vercd dtrrin' ..orld . .ar? XI. Lees el'ritrlent i.. ifustrial or,;a:tiaat1on thanl the L's, acrd lack of tlu; atonic bomb. The e;:istarwe ;tithin the tJ Sit of both overt and covert opposition ol.eriente . Nusitiort of Possible I'artici.[yartts in :er 5." Yellowing is a surw-zry oi' statements by loading; Polish (o r t r it;tts rogardinr the internal anti foreign position of possibly participants Ir. a future .jar: (a) The W. All stater.:ents or:phasizo US ic:;,orialisr as d :onstrated by 1 or uc ivitiors in Iraq, !ran, ;audi ftrabia, and The UJ,, by inciting u wrpt against i'ritain and inereasing her oivn influence over Can? cta and :.ustralia, is hclpina to noal:on the iritish Zupiro. Chiang Eai.ahok's opposition to t;5 effortu to strcri than Japan's zil3.tary potential can cause the Uk cor iderablo trouble. (b) Croat Eritain. The USSit doe:: not conaic:or Great > ritain a perrimont L'a actor -o-V"' s rcrtgth In the structure of the. world. The vanishing i.+ritiuh tw*apirc, in a i4?aritic effort to preserve its position of power, is tryin;; to act as ned'i ator botraeen the US and the US&t. In the roan- tire, the U:i is oyutei,'_y trcanin;; array Canada, itus?tra1ia, and sev- cral ,lritisir ponceusions in hfri ca., Y;hilt the WSa is prepared to take over the rest. ~(c) (d) (e) CONFIDENTIAL Approved. For Release. 2004103/31 CIA-RDP80-00809A000500830157-4 . The U 4 h is endeavoring to absorb all of c,orr.:any into. bar sphere of influence. absorption will be facilitated by the sinilurity :xrta,ccn Corn unisr and t.atienal .socialism raps' ch once i.oforc paved the .1ay or Core.:unisn in C cri; any. --ranee. The main o e j ctivo of the : Wrench Cotinunists is to cha:*:a prance into a "people Is democracy" and 'tie her foreign policy to the QU510 a throw ;h their nutual fear of a militarily ;iovrerful Germany. The USSIi realizes that the i?rench people are opposed to both Communism and ?as.. cisr,: and must therefore .be accorded special treatment if they arc to accept the "new system.'- Capitalists, for eranple, rust be given con- cessions not ordinarily permitted in Communistic courttrie . If do 7aullo' attempts a coup d' etut with nglo-,:axon aid, the Cor::unists ir.: rar,ce will start an `u:~ceciiate offensive and hope for Sotiot assistance. Greece. Greece is the current proving ground for UL and t;~'5it weapons 0 orce and influence. Communists believe that the U:, is losir ; :orld prestige t_vrough her involvement in Gruelc internal problems- and her inability to solve them in accordance :pith her on plans. The UbSit foresees the following solution to the breek question (1) 1. "cls:r:ocratic" ; overruaent will. be bet up in the terra tory presently occupied by the Cor:a:.unict:j. (2) The iJSSic will then propose to the U:; a compromise calling for a Government of l utional Unity in Crocco. (3) The taw .till accept the proposal. (!t) hen foreiCn ar:icu are ::itlydra;n and Conmr.unist elements in the national Unity Government uro sufficiently strong, ".reactionary" elos:ents .till be pur ;cd fro:.: the 7over;"::errt cure's the Coununists will assume full po:;er. CC flMiMiTIAL Approved For Rele ffQ3/ 10809A000500830157-4 F[D 25X1 (f) Poland. Poland occupies a pr!r.ary position in boviot plane for "democratizing" Europe but muot co-.operate with the 1*: ;U in these plans in order to secure Soviet assistance. All underground organi- zations must be eradicated and the popular tendency toward ,.nglo - Saxon orieutation must be corrected. In it:; state ?ents, the PPii streseeu the WSW c i7illin ness t', help i~oland and eit6n the anti- polish action of the i nglo-Saxons in questionin;; Poland' s .,teutern borders and rebuilding Germany. (~) the u;M Soviet politicians believe their diplomacy has teen suc- cessful. They have achieved the forr.ation of a ,lav bloc as a i ,rrier to Ge2'r, ar. rrosoion and have created "People's den:oeraeios" in central and southeastern r;urope which will serve as transitl3nal iredla for future L;orrrcunist statee. They have also deatrnyed --uropo's balance of power which has been a tiraditional basis of i.ritish foreign policy. ii~b'IUI;i:TIkL CONFIDENTIAL Approved. For Release2.004/03/31;: CIA-RDP80-00809A000500830157-4