BASIC PROBLEMS OF THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00809A000600340271-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 16, 2011
• Sequence Number: 271
• Publication Date: September 7, 1950
• Content Type: REPORT

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CLASSIFICATION CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL
CENTRAL -INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
INFORMATION FROM
MENTS OR RADIO BROADCASTS
REPORT
CD NO.
COUNTRY
SUBJECT
FOREIGN DOCU
Scientific - Geophysics, meteorology
DATE OF
INFORMA
DATE DI
TION
ST. ''1
1950
HOW
PUBLISHED
WHERE
Monthly periodical
OF PAGES
I, )
7
PUBLISHED
DATE
PUBLISHED
LANGUAGE
Leningrad
dun_ 1946
Russian
.
SUPPLEMENT TO
REPORT NO.
THIN OOCUNINT CO 'AIM! INFORMATION AFFECTING THI NATIONAL DEFENDS
OF TA! UNITED A TIE WITHIN TAN MEAMINO OF ESPIONADI ACT 60
U. E. C.. E1 AND SEAS ANEROID. ITS 'NANINISSION ON TAN RETNLA' IN P SON TO AN
OF TS
PNONIE TI D, 15 PRO'
UNAUTH NCO NT TLAW IN REPRODUCTION OF THIS FORM ORNIZIO
SOURCE
THIS IS UNEVALUATED INFORMATION
Meteorologiya; Gidrologiya, No 6, 1946.
BASIC PROBLEMS OF THE HYDROME'TEOROLOGICAL_SERVICE
Organization of observations
. Systematic observations of the atmosphere, seas, and rivers are made by
a network of hydrometeorological stations spread irregularly over the USSR.
The various officer which previously maintained the stations set them up arbi-
trarily without any unified plan, When,the entire network was unified, the
Hydrometeorological Service still didAot know horn many stations would be neces-
sary.
k network of 10,000 stations'and 20,000 posts is required in the USSR to
obtain'deta on climatic and hydrological elements and local processes. At pres-
ent,. th network consists of 3,000 stations and 4,000 posts, nonuniformly*dis-
tributed. The network is thick enough in industrial and populated regions, but
quite insufficient in the north and northeast and in the Central Asia deserts.
After determining the required number of stations, plans were drawn up
for their efficient allocation in the USSR. These plans w.:re put into effect
by making the network more efficient in populated and industrial regions; un-
necessary stations were closed and the remaining stations were put in order.
The war interrupted, this worn.
The Germans destroyed 3,500 stations and posts with all their equipment.
Upon liberation,' these stations were rapidly rebuilt so that At present almost
all stations and most posts are in operation.
,During the new Stalin Five-Year Plan, 500 stations, mostly in isolated
.regions, will be constructed.
No matter how thick the network of stations, aerological reports are still
necessary to obtain the correct picture of atmospheric processes. In aerological
studies, we are not keeping pace with the increasing requirements of our. aviation
with respect to the number of points producing atmospheric soundings, height of
ascents, and quality of measurements. Measures are being taken to eliminate
these defects this year. The main tool for obtaining aerological data is the
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radio-
aerograph the number of points
radiosonde.
for aerologicalnmeasurementss.. of
The We
sounding. This year
4 kilometers by some
we are replacing outmoded aircraft which rrao]~hd only 3-
'Adv~& reach 7 kilometers.
During the war, air weather reconaissance was used in our own and foreign
armies. Specially-equipped planes were sent behind enemy lines to obtain weather
data. We now use this method for regions without developed networks of stations
and for sea areas.
The barrage balloon and radar are now used in aerology. The captive balloon
permits one to follow time variations in meteorological elements at a certain
height. It is comparatively cheap and simple to use, and is now being made avail-
able to use, and is now being made available to several stations.
Radar permits one to determine high-altitude winds under all conditions.
Wires or other targets
balloon small to balloon 3 kilometerstawayy. can accu-
position attached
of h the to
rately determine
Radar undoubtedly can determine the position of cloud masses and other atmos-
pheric formations at great distances. Centimeter waves are reflected from such
surfaces, thus making possible their detection.
This is the status and potentialities of typical methods for oot.,ining aero-
logical data. The development of these methods and their use and study are the
task of the Central Aerological Observatory, the youngest of Soviet scientific-
research institutes. In addition, the observatory conducts systematic aerological
investigations of various atmospheric processes with the help of free balloons
(study of the structure of atmospheric fronts, for example) and assists other in-
stitutes and the Academy of Sciences USSR in the organization of special aerostat
flights.
Observations made "in passing" on the open sea are conducted by military and
commercial vessels and by the various expeditions which cover the seas of the
USSR every year. At present, such data is very scanty and in no way satisfies
the needs of the Service. At the same time, systematic hydrological and meteoro-
logical observations on the open seas are very important. We must know the sea --
its properties, state, temperature, transparency, and currents -- as an area of
fleet and fishing operations. The state of the sea gives us important character-
istics of la.?ge-scale hydrometeorological processes. For example, careful measure-
ments of water temperature and other hydrological elements in the Barents Sea up
to the meridiar of the Kola Peninsula, which were repeated yearly up to the war,
permitted us to follow the thermal state of the northern loop of the Gulf Stream,
fore-
and the latter was taken into consideration in n drawing must suupelonng-range ice
ceefore-nt
casts for the Arctic. In the coming years,
of systematic oceanographic works and expeditions and acquire specially equipped
ships for this purpose.
The development of new insurumtnt,4 is natural'y important in the organization
of observations. Recently, our scientific-research institutions and, especially,
the Central Construction Bureau of the Main Administration of the Hydrometeoro-
logical Service have designed many new instruments which will shortly be used in
actual practice. Sometimes these are simple instruments designed for mass produc-
tion, for example, the Tret'yakov anemometer, an instrument which was used by the
army in World War II and produced by the tens of thousands. In addition, there
are the gas barometer and a new type of rain gage, which is free from the eternal
defect of all rain gages, i.e., distortion of winter precipitation because snow is
blown out by the wind.
The first series of automatic weather stations (designed in the Central Con-
struction Bureau) have been set up as samples in various regions of the USSR,
e.g., in the Arctic, Pamirs, Yakutsk taiga, and shores of the Sea of Okhotsk. The
automatic stations report their observations by radio to distances of several hun-
dred kilometers and operate many months without supervision. The inventors (ror-
ileychenko, Surazhskij, Mal'tsev.and others) were awarded a Stalin prize.
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Study of Climate and Hydrological States; Calculations and Processing
Observational data is used to determine normal averages and most probable
values of meteorological and hydrological elements at various points of the
country, to compile reports on the present weather and hydrological states, and
to forecast these states for certain definite times.
It is quite clear that climate and hydrological states must be known in
planning various constructions or economic measures. It would be impossible,
for example, to use the same construction norms for buildings in Odessa and Yak-
utsk. However, planners sometimes forget such phenomena as debacle and floods
in designing a bridge or & sot consider how much water a river can supply be-
fore planning a plant or city on it. Such grave overtfgbts are infrequent, of
course. Usually, the planner takes the most unfavorable set of hydrometeoro-
logical elements into consideration and provides a more than sufficient safety
factor of strength or size in designing constructions. It is much more diffi-
cttlt, however, to select s&Sety factors actually needed to p roadbed crosses
construction along with required strength. For example, if a
a valley,. a drain sufficient for passage of spring and flash floods must be made
in the fill. Careful investigations of maximum runoff, made under the direction
of Prof D. L. Sokolovskiy (Laureate of the Stalin prize) in the State Hydro-
logical Institute, have considerably reduced the safety factors previously used
in constructions of this type, thus making possible enormous savings. Various
hydrological and meteorological calculations are required in planning dams and
bridges, radio towers, transmission lines, irrigation systems, and port construc-
tions. Sometimes these calcualtions are made by the builders themselves with
the Hydrometeorological Service providing the required handbook data; sometimes
the calculations are made by organizations of the Hydrometeorological Service.
Much has been done to prepare the necessary handbook data on the climate
and hydrology of our country. Climatic handbooks for the entire USSR have re-
cently been completed by the Main Geophysics Observatory. The Great Climatic
Atlas of the Soviet Union will consummate this work.
In the same period, the State Hydrological Institute summarized basic hydro-
logical data in the Inventory of Water Resources of the USSR. Most of this data
has already been published.
Soviet, scientific institutes, without awaiting completion of these major
handbooks, are prodac-ing much different descriptive material designed for definite
consumers. Much of this material was produced during World War II for the army
and navy and includes hydrometeorological manuals, special climatic maps for
aviation, hydrometeorological characteristics of seas, and monthly navigation
charts.
The production of basic handbook iata on USSR climate and hydrology from
available material Fs the primary problem of the Hydrometeorological Service
and is still not completed.
The second problem is dete*mining indirectly the hydrometeorological elements
for regions without onservation`stations. The utilization of small rivers is an
example of this need: Construction of small hydroelectric power plants requires
hydrological calculations and observational data. However, we cannot have, and
do not intend to have, even one hydrological station on each of the 25,000 small
rivers which are of interest from the power standpoint. Consequently, we must
open stations on small representative rivers. Thusx by making single rP.onnais&-
ammmei.nLpections of other rivers, we can compare them with the representative rivers.
In the same way, we can study local climatic characteristics which are im-
portant for farm crops. We now have observation stations studying nearby rivers
or climate in addition to making systematic observations at the station itself.
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The third important problem is to study the vast influences of climate
and its variation upon hydrometeorological behavior. At present, for ex-
ample, there is the general warming of the Arctic and the severe variations
in the level of the Caspian Sea. We must understand climatic variations and
how disturbances in normal behavior of any element influences the rest to be
able to calculate the effect of artificial operations, such as the construc-
tion of large reservoirs and drainage of vast swamp regions, upon climate and
the hydrometeorological regime. An example of such calculations in Professor
Zubov's recent work in the State Oceanographic Institute on the possible con-
sequences of separating the Azov from the Black Sea by a dam crossing Kerchen-
skiy Strait.
Processing of observational results is of extreme importance for climatic
studies. About ten million individual measurements of meteorological and hy-
drological elements enter the Hydrometeorological Service each year. Even
standard treatment of this data to clarify observational errors and to reduce
them to definite initial values is quite difficult and requires a staff of
technical workers. Haphazard processing will not satisfy our future needs and
will retard the development of scientific studies.
Although our handbooks show that probability of winds of various intensi-
ties in a region of certain air temperatures, of ice storms, etc., it is ex-
tremely difficult to determine the compound nrobabilittyyuooff certainmcombinations
of elements, for example, strong wind with icing,
are often the most interesting.
The only way out of this situation, i.e., the only method of transforming
clumsy observational arcnives into flexible semifinished calculations, is through
mechanizatior; i.e., the introduction of machines and present-day methods of
analysis and computations for hydrometeorological data. This problem is being
attacked vigorously by a special institution, the Central Scientific Research
Hydrometeorological Archives, organized in 1943 to study various methods of me-
chanizing typical calculations and to index or cards the main observational ar-
chives. Since that time, the Archives has done considerable work in me,hanizing
many calculations and in indexing meteorological observational data.
Forecasts
Various forecasts, e.g., weather forecasts for periods from several hours
to several months, short- and long-range forecasts of rivers and seas, etc., are
produced. The easiest are short-range forecasts of river levels (95-98 percent
correct) while the most difficult are long-range weather forecasts (65-70 percent
correct).
Long-range forecasts, using a method devised more than 20 years ago by Mul'-
tanovskiy are given for one or 3 months in advance. The method perfected by
Mul'tanovskiy's followers, headed by Pagava, establishes empirically certain laws
governing gross synoptic processes over prolonged time intervals. The basic prin-
ciples of the method are: the hypothesis of centers of action in the atmosphere,
unique nidi whose activity determines shifts in pressure formations and air masses;
the hypothesis of a natural synoptic period, a time interval in which position of
main pressure fields and direction of processes are maintained; and the nypothesis
of 5 and 3-month periods.
Some of these principles have now been proven by independent methods (the
existence of a natural synoptic period is now unquestioned), while others remain
problematical. There are three basic elements in long-range forecast, namely:
prediction of deviations from norms of average-monthly values; prediction of synop-
tic processes, i.e., movement of air masses and pressure formations; and finally
the weather forecast, i.e., descriptions of the weather for various parts of the
country.
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Systematic verification of long-range weather forecasts shows that the
correctness is 6.5-7.0 on a scale of ten (for comparision, daily forecasts are
9.0-9.0) which is very low and naturally cannot satisfy the economy, but for
the interim no better method exists. The method of long-range forecasting used
is not oily the most successful, but is the most developed and scientific in
comparison with others. Long-range forecasts, for all their imperfection, still
orient the economy more correctly than if only climatic norms were used. Al-
ttbai h IlAg0-range forecasts are produced only by Mul'tanovskiy's method, research
work in finding other methods is pushing forward. Interesting results are pro-
mised by the work of Blinova, based upon methods of dynamic meteorology, and the
work of Belinskiy. Important results have been obtained recently by Pagava in
devising forecasting methods based upon two natural synoptic periods, a sort of
average between long-range and short-range forecasts.
Short-range forecasts are very common. In the USSR, there-are about 2,000
weather bureaux, or stations which produce forecasts, both general and. special;
e.3., for military and commercial aviation, the fleet, and railroads. Short-
range weather forecasts by synoptic maps have existed for 80 years. One impor-
tant transition in methods took place 25 years ago and another ie occurring now.
The first was frontological analysis., which replaced pressure and ;.empnrature
fields by state and motion of air masses and atmospheric i?ron1s.. Since that
time, Soviet and foreign scientists have perfected this method particularly in
giving the tnalysi:w, a three-dimensional character. Advective-dynamic analysis
devised by Pogosyan and Tabcrovskiy is an example. The second transition is'due
to a school of dynamic meteorology founded by Fridman 20 years ago in the Main
Geophysics Observatory and carried on by Kochin, and now headed by Kibc1', a
Stalin Prize winner.
In 1939, Kibel' predetermined some elements of future weather by hydrodynamic
equations. In England in the 1920's Richardson had set up a system of equations
which theoretically could be used to determine the next day's weather, but he
himself said that the calculations. would tak? a year. Kibel' and his students
found a theoretically possible and practical method by clever use of frontal con-
ditions and simplifications.
Predeterminations of .emperature and pressure give results almost equal to
the normal synoptic method. Much more accurate results will be obtained when the
quality of the initial data is improved, particularly the number and quality of
radiosonde observations, and also when calculation methods are improved. Great
intcrtst is therefore attached to the numerous works of Kibel '' s collaborators
in the Divisirn of Dynamic Meteorology, the Central Forecasting Institute, and
the Main Geophysics Observatory.
One important characteristic stands out in long-range forecasts of activities
of rivers and seas, devised by Bregman, Vangengeym, L'vovich, Belinskiy, etc.,
namely, the phenomenon to be forecast depends upon hydrometeorological develop-
ment and past factors. For example, in forecasting spring flocds (debacle and
high-water), these known 'factors are ice thickness, the amount of snow cover in
the basin, the nature of atmospheric circulation, the predominance of latitudinal
or meridional transfer of air masses, and the state of the underlying surface
(surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean) in the zones Of the air masses' for-
mation, i.e., in tr.e final analysis, a calculation of the amount of heat to be
transferred to the USSR from the Atlantic in spring.
Naturally, future hydrometeorological behavior is predicted with the same
accuracy (although by other methods) as long-range weather forecasts, but hydro-
logical forecasts have a slight advantage due to the influence of actual known
background. In practice, hydrological forecasts are more often correct and in
some cases may be given far in advance; for example, the forecast of the level of
the Caspian Sea is given in March a year in advance and is correct within several
centimeters or 15 percent of level variation. This is possible because of factors
known when the forecast is drawn up. The main factor here is the stores of water
in the snow cover of the Volga River basin. This water is about 70 percent of the
entire discharge of the Volga for one year, vid the discharge of the Volga pro-
duces 80 percent of the entire influx into the Caspian.
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The influence of known factors is still more significant for short-range
river forecasts. Thus, if rain falls up river, it is easy to establish when
and how a flood will appear in its lower course if the river regime is known.
However, we do not infer that the problem of the influence of these known fac-
tors is simple and practically solved. It is easy to?calculate how much water
will be obtained as a result of snow thawing in a glass tank on a laboratory
desk, but it is quite another matter to make this calculation for snow lying
on millions of square kilometers of the Volga River basin. We still know
little of the laws of !discharge and flood formation.
Forecasting is the most difficult work of the Hydrometeorological Service.
The Central Forecasting Institute directs scientific research institutions in
this field and concentrates on the development of all important forecasts, e.g.,
weather, river and sea, long and short range.
Terrestrial_ Magnetism; The Ionosphere
For the time being, magnetic investigations stand slightly apart in the
Hydrometeorological Service because no obvious connection has beer established
as yet between meteorological phenomena in the lower levels (up to 20-30 kilo-
meters), the ionosphere, and various electromagnetic phenomena.
However, it is felt that such a connection undoubtedly exists. Its dis-
covery will be of real importance to the Hydrometeorological Service. This will
permit a spanning of the gap between solar activity and meteorological processes
and consequently will aid forecasters.
At present, the main task of the Scientific-Research Institute of Terres-
trial Magnetism and magnetic observatories of our service is the study of the
geomagnetic field and ionosphere. The institute has done much work on a general
magnetic survey of the USSR and actively assists geologists in geophysical pro-
specting for mineral resources. Recently, the institute organized a regular.
ionospheric service for systematic sounding of the ionosphere at several points.
This service provides pertinent information and forecasts on conditions for radio-
wave propagation.
The institute suffered greatly from the German occupation, and its members
work under very difficult conditions at present.
The Problem of Actively Influencing the Weather; Trends of Future Studies
Influencing the weather is not far off. We have already in'erfered with
the weather on a small scale. In 1938, o:ie of our institutes experimented in
creating art:!ficial'fog to protect plantings. The institute conducting the ex-
periment employed a special type of smoke whose particles served as good conden-
sation nuclei and caused the formation of a fog which protected the seeds from
radiation cooling. 'Calculations showed that this fog was cheaper than direct
heating of air.
Construction of lerge reservoirs and drainage of vast swamp areas undoubtedly
casue small but marked climatic changes, but more serious enterprises in this
direction are not far off. Atomic energy will give us power of the order neces-
sary fol such attempts.
Our scientists consider three main trends to be followed in attempting to
influence the weather. The first is the creation of weather conditions desired
in a certain restricted area under any conditions. This might include the dis-
persal of fog and clouds up to a certain height near an airfield. Considering
the enormous energy which such measures will require, they will be profitable in
only few cases.
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The second is interference during unstable states, where compatatively
small operations can turn a process in the direction desired; for example,
the direction of motion of air masses might be changed by using atomic energy
to heat the air greatly in a certain region of an ocean.
The third is climatic changes over considerable areas by major inter-
ference
enin the ormous econstruct constructions, which cincturn iwill rprsea oduce aemajor effect for
decades and centuries.
We now ccnsider some important treni::= of future investigations. To ob-
tain able weather forecasts anditombehaable
aanalyzanalyze o hydrometeorological
in-
behavior, we must clarify the phys lest
volved. This, rather than pure description and recording of meteorological
processes, is now the primary and most difficult goal of our investigations.
For example, the qualitative side of the hydrological cycle is well-known to
laymen and scientists, but there are great quantitative difficulti.es; for ex-
ample, we do not know all details of evaporation from sea and land surfaces and
from swamps and forests and we do not know why a polar maritime air mass took
precisely the route it did yesterday, nor what the conditions in a cloud must
be for rain, nor what part of precipitated rain runs off into a river bed, nor
what past goes into the soil.
To analyze all these problems we want first to be'able to express gross
hydrometeorological processes through quantitative physical. laws. Secondly,
we will study carefully and in detail structure and behavior of cloud particles,-
water movement in soils, evaporation from sea 'urfaces, etc. To do this we
must make accurate physical measurements under natural conditions, in clouds
and under water; we must use flying laboratories and instruments for work in
the depths of the sea. Finally, we must be able to reproduce, artificially,
phenomena on the; proper scale. For example, if we want to calculate accurately
how a.jiver freezes and its ice thaws, we must reproduce this process, and
thus our laboratory must have water of various temperatures, flowing with
various velocities, and have over this water air with various velocities, all
on a scale of 1:100 to 1:200, rather than 1:10,000, where the similarity will'
be broken. We rust have large-scale installations to study bedding and runoff
and must be able to subject the atmosphere to various powerful irradiations
effective to hundreds and thousands of meters. All this is very difficult and
frequently costly, but we cannot understand the physical. essence of hydrometeorol-
ogical phenomena without sufficiently broad experiments.
50X1-HUM
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