SOVIET ATTITUDE TOWARD A THIRD WORLD WAR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00810A003900190002-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 9, 2001
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: March 30, 1954
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2002/01/03 : CIA-RDP80-0081OA003900190002-7
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
INFORMATION REPORT
SUBJECT Soviet Attitude Toward a, Third World
War
25X1A
This Document contains information affecting the Na-
tional Defense of the United States, within the mean-
ing of Title 18, Sections 793 and 794, of the U.S. Code, as
amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents
to or receipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited
by law. The reproduction of this form is prohibited.
REPORT NO. 25X1 A
DATE DISTR. 30 March 195+
NO. OF PAGES 2
REQUIREMENT NO. RD
REFERENCES
THE SOURCE EVALUATIONS IN THIS REPORT ARE DEFINITIVE.
THE APPRAISAL OF CONTENT IS TENTATIVE.
(FOR KEY SEE REVERSE)
SOURFE:
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1. In source's opinion, a ":third, World War is the only chance for any of the
Soviet satellites to break away from the USSR. Although source has never
heard any conversation among the population of the USSR about a Third World
War as a means of liberation, he feels that the population is waiting for and
wants it. For example, resistance In the Ukrainian SSR was very strong for
three or for years after World Wi%r 21. A special MVD division was sent to
the Ukraine to combat this resistance activity and major military engagements
took place. At present, all overt military resistance in the Ukraine has been
liquidated) however, resistance is still alive. To e, much lesser degree resistance
is still alive in the :Baltic republics, but. nowhere else in.the USSR. There
is no resistance in Siberia, and source feels that ariy resistance there is impossible.
There may be the possibility of trouble in prison camps in this area, but that
is all. Any resistance! activity could come about only as the result of,-a new
war, as the population needs strength from the outside. All conversation
about liberation through their. own. efforts is wasted utopian thinking and
impossible and baseless optimism. For example, nothing was accomplished by
the East German riots, and the Soviet police system is a thousand times
stronger than the Nazi system. Thus, source feels that the unification of
Germany is impossible and that this effort represents nothing but conversation,
hopes, and nonsense,
2. Source feels that the time will come when the leaders of the USSR will decide
to start a war, and that when this time comes the Soviets will move first
and without any consideration for humanity. They will be absolutely sure that
they will win the wars but this does.not mean that their calculations will be
correct. They might make a major error in their assessment of strategic
strengths. At the present time, the main aim of the Soviets is to undermine
politically the US position in Europe, the Middle East, and the Far East, and
elsewhere, using fifth column techniques,. US Secretary of State Dulles was
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absolutely correct when he pointed. out in Car?aca.s, Venezuela, that the main
threat in Latin America at the present time Is Co=urz,i.sm and Communist
activities.
The passage of time wants to the advantage of the USSR and China,, and not
to the advantage of the TUS. The USSR knows bow to produce atomic weapons
and is making progress in indu.str^y, especially aea. r'y industry. The
population of the TOSS 1t lacks consumer goods; but, with the people under
control as they are and 'will. be, they can co':tiuue to improve heavy
industry. Increasing the quantity of consumer goods ie Just f?throwing,
a bone to a dog0 O it helps to keep the people f:adr:iy quiet and not too
dissatisfied. The ITS, 'Go'vernment; must be very vii= tchfu..1. concerning
Soviet achievements `? T?:' te aircraft, ir.dustry. The man teas K. of the USSR
from the military point; of view is to achievvve the sta;me success in the aircraft
industry as the US has, as this is the weak point in the position of the
USSR. In source ?s opinion, the Soviets will, strike when they have sufficient
strategic air .trength., ..,.nd it will take six to -':ten ye re for them to
reach this level. Source feels that the ':TS is cord ;n- emph.Sizing
power, and Soviet reali ation. of the importance of :. ir? power was the first
indication that their plane has changed.
Along with the +ie relopm r:t,s in the fi:el.d. of aircraft ire those concerning
the hydrogen bomb and wen.ponsv Source agrees with. Secretary .of
Defense Wilson, who said that the :USSR has tried. to frighten. the world by
announcing devel.opmexrt:s In. the atomic field.. Of course, the So7iets have
made achievements in t,i....t field, but they, prohyibly 'have been purposely
exagger,?ted. > cagger 'tai.or is 4 typical Soviet characteristic and tactic.
Another exanp,l.e of this tactic is the emplacement of dum y, aircraft on Soviet
airfields in. Europe (either .k u,ropeaaa,n '.ISSN1 or Soviet-occupied areas) to fool
the US.
5. The Soviet Government Is defirvitely worried that the .TS will, attack the USSR
first and by sur^pr.ise . For example}, as e l.y as 194.9 It. crexteral,
Ivan Fedorovic:h, 'Iii,:.i.shov, formerly chief of 1) is troy, expressed to
that it 'wales possible for an. America,x;..r'eprese;ctaa.tive to place
a email atomic bomb in the Moscow subway. O'ener:al Vlkishav is 60 years
25X1 X old, Source feels
that many other high.-r?ari ing Soviet officia3,e feel the same way as General
N'ikiehov does.
6. In addition to the Soviet lack of a sufficient number and. quality.of bomber
aircraft, there are several other reasone why the USSR cannot start a war
now. The USSR does not have a large naval fleet, and source feels that US
military men have overestimated the naval strength of the tUS.SR. The Soviet
Navy poese no aircraft carriers or battleships, only a few cruisers; and,,
although they have many submarines s. these are not vers:+tile enough or in
great enough numbers for each type. In, addition, gasoline, coal, and steel
are not now in sufficient supply in the USSR to permit the Soviets to strike
the US. When they are, and conditions improve, t,her.:It -wi.l.l be time for the
Soviets to strike. in source's opinion this is not, l..i kKely for another ten
years, and that ten. years is a short time, especially in the USS.E.
The Soviets wish to finish off the US and: Its system, and create a new
system in its place. however, it is impossible and against common sense
to attempt it now. IZLAF,:,t is why there is so much talk about peace in the tTSSR
at present.
Approved For Release 2002/01/03 : CIA-RDP80-0081OA003900190002-7