POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80-00810A006100140003-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2008
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 1, 1955
• Content Type: REPORT

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Laws, Title
18, U.S.C. Secs. 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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COUNTRY Yugoslavia/USSR REPORT
DATE OF INFO.
PLACE ACQUIRED
DATE ACQUIRED
Possible Future Developrnents
in Yugoslavia
DATE DISTR.
NO. OF PAGES
REQUIREMENT NO. RD
REFERENCES
I Aarch 1955
P
1. Within the next few years there will be a bitter internal struggle in the
Federation of Communists of Yugoslavia between the pro-Soviet and the pro-
Western factions. The pro-Soviet forces will be the stronger. Marshal
Tito might possibly be pro-Western, but he will be forced by the radicals,
who consider him "spoiled" and "softened", to move closer to the Soviets.
In this context, the Djilas case can be considered a thorough defeat for
Tito.
2. Tito's policy, in case of war, will be to do everything to remain neutral,
since he considers that joining one side or another will mean his finish
no matter which side wins. The Yugoslav Army itself will not fight, but
probably most of the soldiers will desert while the UDB officers and non-
commissioned officers will side with the Soviet Union.
3. Realizing this, Tito and the Federation of Communists of Yugoslavia are
pursuing a policy of getting what they can from the West, in order to
recover economically and to gain prestige and popularity with their people.
The people themselves, however, are not as easily deceived as the Ameri-
cans. Once 'ecooo_znic conditions and harvest improve, "the whole artificial
demonstration of private enterprise" currently in force will be replaced
by a centralized Marxist economy.
4. As relations with the Soviet Union and the Satellites improve, there will
be a series of purges and "unpleasant shifts" in Yugoslavia.
5. Yugoslavia's purpose in joining the Balkan Pact was mainly for business and
prestige reasons.
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(Notes Washington distribution indicated by "X"; Field distribution by
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Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9
 Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9
Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9