POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN YUGOSLAVIA

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP80-00810A006100140003-9
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
2
Document Creation Date: 
December 21, 2016
Document Release Date: 
June 16, 2008
Sequence Number: 
3
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
March 1, 1955
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP80-00810A006100140003-9.pdf80.88 KB
Body: 
ONFOOQMA OOm QnpOOQr mvOgmWVUOI 0CIOOQ1 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY This material contains information affecting the National Defense of the United States within the meaning of the Espionage Laws, Title 18, U.S.C. Secs. 793 and 794, the transmission or revelation of which in any manner to an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. ,n,F!!!RV..rV COUNTRY Yugoslavia/USSR REPORT DATE OF INFO. PLACE ACQUIRED DATE ACQUIRED Possible Future Developrnents in Yugoslavia DATE DISTR. NO. OF PAGES REQUIREMENT NO. RD REFERENCES I Aarch 1955 P 1. Within the next few years there will be a bitter internal struggle in the Federation of Communists of Yugoslavia between the pro-Soviet and the pro- Western factions. The pro-Soviet forces will be the stronger. Marshal Tito might possibly be pro-Western, but he will be forced by the radicals, who consider him "spoiled" and "softened", to move closer to the Soviets. In this context, the Djilas case can be considered a thorough defeat for Tito. 2. Tito's policy, in case of war, will be to do everything to remain neutral, since he considers that joining one side or another will mean his finish no matter which side wins. The Yugoslav Army itself will not fight, but probably most of the soldiers will desert while the UDB officers and non- commissioned officers will side with the Soviet Union. 3. Realizing this, Tito and the Federation of Communists of Yugoslavia are pursuing a policy of getting what they can from the West, in order to recover economically and to gain prestige and popularity with their people. The people themselves, however, are not as easily deceived as the Ameri- cans. Once 'ecooo_znic conditions and harvest improve, "the whole artificial demonstration of private enterprise" currently in force will be replaced by a centralized Marxist economy. 4. As relations with the Soviet Union and the Satellites improve, there will be a series of purges and "unpleasant shifts" in Yugoslavia. 5. Yugoslavia's purpose in joining the Balkan Pact was mainly for business and prestige reasons. STATE ARMY NOFORN~ 25X1 25X1 AIR FBI AEC I I I (Notes Washington distribution indicated by "X"; Field distribution by MFOO RMQ'NOft REPO R7 MFOG?3M T ON REPOQ1r Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9 Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9 Approved For Release 2008/06/16: CIA-RDP80-0081 OA006100140003-9