CONTRIBUTION ON US INTELLIGENCE - LONG TERM COMPARISON PROJECT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01083A000100110016-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 13, 2012
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: January 1, 2000
• Content Type: MF

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/14 :CIA-RDP80B01083A000100110016-6
T~~;T~~OP,AIV'D'JP~ FU Assistant to the Dll~I (Planning)
SUBJECT Contribution on US Intelligence -
Long Term Comparison Project
i. I think you're off to a very good start and at this stage
I'd best confine my remarks to comments on the general approach of
the paper and the structure of your outline. First a couple of
limit-picks about the scope of the paper:
a. Your first sentence should be corrected to read:
"An intra-governmental task force under the 1dSC Planning
Board is currently examining trends in the relative power
position of the US and USSI: and of the free 'w'orld and the
Sino-Soviet Bloc over the next decade."
b. Line 8 should be changed to read: "...has asked us
to consider the US and F,llied intelligence apparatus...."
2. As you will see in the attached statement of "General
Guidance to Contributors" this paper tiTill have to be restructured
soiriewnat if it is to fit into the general conte:?ct of this exercise.
Father than focusing almost entirely on intelligence devices, pro-
cesses, and developments the paper should be directed toward certain
broad categories of things we need to know a'oout t:~e outside world
:?rhich are of national security iriiportance i.e., information ~?rhich
~frouid enable us to more accurately assess Soviet Bloc power relative
to our o~-rn and that of the Tree .~orld; information which would enable
us to exercise our influence more effectively abroad against the
backdrop of the Soviet challenge; infor:~lation wizich would contribute
to the cohesiveness of :~estern power etc. In brief we must ask what
~oroad categories of critical questions ;?rill intelligence be most
concerned .rith thrD?agh 1965 and through 1970. i~~iost of these broad
questions could be found in the list of topics covered by 1dl~s over
the past two or three years . For e:tariple :
a. Soviet Bloc Capabilities for Strategic Attack.
'~~'hat anticipated intelligence developments ~~.11 have
tre most critical bearing on our lLno~rledge of this subject
e.g., aerial photography; inspection associated Frith dis-
armament or with cessation of nuclear tests; is it likely
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/14 :CIA-RDP80B01083A000100110016-6 ?
 Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/14 :CIA-RDP80B01083A000100110016-6
that COiI1T will help etc. A section on this question
would also include a judgment as to how much better our
inforr,-:ation will be and in what respects. It should also
include a judF:~ent as to the most likely critical de-
ficiencies in our i~nowledge during this period.
b. early ;darning.
(1)
(2 } Limited ~rar.
(tile approach on this question would be similar to that suggested
for a. above)
j. As one line of approach I suggest you consider preparing
your paper in two parts. Part I would deal with anticipated improve-
ments and shortcomings in intelligence devices, processes, and in
the system generally over the nest ten years. this section would
focus on the most significant anticipated developments i.e., those
things which will result in a marked difference in our ability to
do the intelligence job. In this part of the paper, whenever
appropriate, I suggest you give alternative ans~?rers under statement
of conditions o-r assumptions e.g., I under?sta~id that the pace of
developments in certain types of listening devices is in large part
a auction of the availability of funds . 1~~Iuch of the 771aterial re-
quired for Part I is of the sort which you already have ire your
first draft; however, I feel fire should try for a little more precision
-- precision of the bind I am sure you wi]_l come up faith during your
discussions with the experts.
Part II irould relate these developr,:ents -- covered in Part I --
to the r._ost critical categories of national security questions on which
intealigence .night provide assistance as indicated in my paragraph 2
above. ;,ubsections os" Part II would spell out the most important of
these cuestions anti ~rotild discuss very briefly the anticipated develop-
ments in the field of intelligence t~rhich would have a bearing on the
ability of intelligence to provide anszrers to these questions. I'in211y
2~,C:1 SU.bseetio:l shoui.d indicate 4T'n8.t deficiencies trill remain.
STAT
Director
;,ong Term comparison Project
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/03/14 :CIA-RDP80B01083A000100110016-6