IDENTIFICATION OF 'DECISION ISSUES'

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01138A000100050021-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2001
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: April 19, 1968
• Content Type: MEMO

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19 April 1968
SUBJECT: Identification of "Decision Issues"
1. The attached paper reflects an initial effort to come to
grips with NIPE/SAG's responsibilities for assembling a list of
"decision issues" and a corresponding list of studies related to these
issues. Recently, both the D'/DCI/NIPE and the DDCI have expressed
a continued interest in the accomplishment of these tasks. This paper
deals with what we believe is the logical starting point: criteria for
the identification of ''decision issues''.
2. Although we are sending this copy for your information,
we would appreciate any thoughts you might have on the subject.
Accordingly, we will call within the next two or three days for the
purpose of arranging informal discussion.
ASA/D/DCI/NIPE
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
25X1A
Attachment:. Indicators for
"Decision Issues"
Distribution:
1 - D/DCI/NIPE
1 - AD/D/DCI/NIPE
1 - AD/D/DCI/NIPE (Gen. Taylor)
1 - NIPS
1 - O/PPB
/ _ ,v , ne" C ~~~
DCI/NIPS/SAG:: gs /pa(4246)
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19 April 1968
Indicators for "Decision Issues"
This paper deals with identification of "decision issues" relating
to the CLAP, CIP, CCP, and NRP. It is an initial and limited approach
to the broader problem of developing improved and uniform means to pro-
vide support to the DCI and comparable senior levels on these "issues";
We intend that it serve as a basis for discussion and exploration that
will further efforts on the broader problem. Additional papers will
follow.
In this draft the indicators are a function either of costs or of
capabilities.* An issue,ciualifies as a "decision issue" if one (or more)
of the specific indicators is applicable. We have not addressed the
problem of timing, that is, when "decision issues" must be identified,
nor have we exploited all the indicators to the fullest possible extent.
We also expect that these, or any, indicators would have to be re-examined
periodically for their continued applicability and effectiveness.
Costs are an indicator in three basic situations: when the cost
of a new project exceeds specified amounts; when the cost of an existing
project increases by more than specified percentages; and when total costs
for the CIAP, CIP, CCP, or NRP increase by more than a specified percentage.
* The indicators are shown in summary form on page 2.
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DECISION ISSUES
ion is less than 5 years.
TO NEW 5-YEAR PROGRAMa/
:OND
THIRD
FOURTH
FIFTH
5
+5
+5
+5b/
relative to those of the existing Programs. Thus, the current
grams, the fourth year of the new Programs corresponds to
is year, the change is relative to the values for the last year
Requirement but no adequate means
of 50 Per cent or
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Decrease of 50 Per cent or more in
CIA R.$0 Jj36AQQ0IO jQ IA Output
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efT
Cots are an indicator for new projects:
1. when the cost of a new project is not fully compensated
for by reductions in other projects and it exceeds the amounts
indicated in this table either for the first year of the
5-year period or for the 5-year total (or for the current
year);
First Year of 5-Year Period a/
Annual AveragejJ
a. Also applicable to current year.
b. To be used instead of 5-year total when the project's
duration-is less than 5 years.
or 2. when the cost of a new project exceeds the amounts indi-
cated in the following table either for the first year of
the 5-year period or for the 5-year total (or for the current
year), regardless of other considerations.
CIAP CIP CCP NRP
First Year of 5-Year Period a/
5-Year Total 25X1A
Annual Average j/
a. Also applicable to current year.
b. To be used instead of 5-year total when the project's
duration is less than 5 years.
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B. Existing Projects
Costs are an indicator for existing projects:
1. when an increase in cost is not fully compensated for
by reductions in other projects and the increase exceeds
5 percent either for the first year of the 5-year period
or for the 5-year total (or for the current year); or
2. when an increase in cost exceeds 10 percent either for
the first year of the 5-year period or for the 5-year total
(or for the current year), regardless of other considera-
tions.
C. Total Costs
Total costs are an indicator:
1. when total costs for the new CIAP, CIP, CCP, or NRP
change in any year by more than 5 percent relative to the
corresponding year of the existing 5-year Program; or
2. when total costs for the new CIAP, CIP, CCP, or NRP
change in the terminal year by more than 5 percent relative
to the terminal year of the existing 5-year Program.
When the total costs of a Program show such a change, the values
of the indicators for individual new or existing projects is reduced by
25 percent, thereby extending scrutiny to a larger number of the Program's
projects.
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II. Capabilities
Capabilities also are an indicator in three basic situations:
when there is significant gain; when there is significant loss; and
when there is significant change with regard to requirements.
A. 'Gain
Gain in capability is an indicator:
1. when there is access to an area or information here-
tofore denied; or
2. when there is an increase of 50 percent or more in an
existing capability.
B. Loss
Loss in capability is an indicator when there is a decrease
of 50 percent or more in an existing capability.
C. Need
Need is an indicator:
1. when there is a requirement, but existing or proposed
capabilities either are nonexistent or inadequate; or
2. when there is a decrease of 50 percent or more in the
requirement for a project's output.
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