LETTER TO HONORABLE JOHN L. MCCLELLAN FROM W.E. COLBY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000100180014-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: October 19, 1975
• Content Type: LETTER

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON,D.C. 20505
The Honorable John L. McClellan
Chairman, Subcommittee on Defense
Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate
Washington, D. C. 20510
OCT 1975
-.,ADD I-_-7s
This is in response to your request that I comment on
a letter to you from Secretary Schlesinger, dated 23 October.
I shall confine my comments to the matters in the Secretary's
letter concerned with Soviet military programs.
My assessments of Soviet military expenditures and
forces are the same as expressed in Secretary Schlesinger's
letter. His statements are consistent with National Intelligence
Estimates and the independent judgments of the CIA. They are
also consistent with my testimony to various committees of
the Congress during the past year or more.
The Secretary's statements together with my comments
are as follows :
1. Defense Budgets:
-~ "We estimate that over the same period [1964 through
1975], Soviet military spending has increased by about
40 percent in real terms. The annual rate of increase
in this spending has run at between 3 and 4 percent."
Comment:
This is consistent with CIA estimates in constant
1974 dollars which show an increase of about 35 percent
over the period. Furthermore, my testimony of
June 18, 1975 before Senator Proxmire's Subcommittee
on Priorities and Economy in Government of the Joint
Economic Committee included the following statements:
"Our current estimate of the costs of Soviet defense
programs over the past decade shows a steady upward ~?UTIO
N
6f~
trend, with annual growth rates averaging about
[MORO/CDF
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3 percent per year [in constant dollars]. The upward
path has been marked by cycles, however, with annual
rates of growth ranging from 1 to 5 percent. "
- "By FY 1975, our best estimate is that Soviet military
outlays had come to exceed those of the United States
by about 30 percent---with retired pay included. If
retired pay were excluded from both budgets, Soviet
military expenditures might be as much as 50 percent
greater than our own. 11
Comment:
Our present estimate of the comparison for 1975
in 1974 dollars is about 35 percent with retired pay
included and about 45 percent without retired pay.
2. Strategic Nuclear Forces:
-- "Soviet outlays for its;strategic forces--calculated on
a comparable [to the U. S. ] basis--have nearly doubled
over the [past] decade, and have exceeded U. S. program
expenditures every year since 1966. We estimate that
they were at least 60 percent higher than our own by
1975."
Comment:
These sta
tements reflect CIA estimates.
41
~- "... the total number of Soviet strategic launchers
has increased dramatically and now exceeds our own.
With the large amount of throw-weight at their disposal,
the Soviets are already beginning a rapid expansion of
their warhead inventory, and we anticipate substantial
improvements in -the accuracy of their ICBM's as well.
Not only are the Soviets deploying MIRV's; their warheads
will have much higher yields than ours. "
-2-
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Comment:
These statements are consistent with National
Intelligence Estimates on the subject and with the
testimony I have presented to various committees of
Congress over the past year or more.
3. General Purpose Forces:
"During the past decade ... Soviet military manpower
has increased by more than 20 percent. The Soviet
military establishment is now more than twice as large
as our own. Much of this increase has gone into the
buildup on the Chinese border, where the Soviets now
maintain about 40 divisions. But the Soviet forces
facing Western Europe have also increased by more
than 100, 000 men, ......
Comment:
I have no argument with any of these statements.
-- "The Soviets have been steadily improving both the
quality and the quantity of the weapons in their general
purpose forces. In fact, since 1964 they have increased
the resources devoted to these forces by more than
33 percent. "
Comment:
I concur with these statements.
-- ... , the Soviets now equal us in the number of surface
combatants, are ahead of us in attack submarines, and
substantially exceed us in deployed cruise-missile
capability. The character of the Soviet naval ships is
also changing. They are developing greater endurance
at sea through larger combatants and logistics support
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ships.! At present, they are building new submarines
at a rate which is three-to-four times faster than our
own. They already have two helicopter cruisers and
a VSTOL aircraft carrier. "
Comment:
I have no argument with any of these statements
except to point out that on the average Soviet surface
combatants are generally smaller than those of the
U. S.
In sum, the Secretary has drawn on data published in
National Intelligence Estimates or in CIA publications. There-
fore, there is no divergence between his understanding of the
facts and mine.
You attributed your request to the appearance of a statement
by Senator Proxmire, and newspaper accounts of it, reporting an
apparent difference between! Secretary Schlesinger's and my
appreciation of Soviet defense expenditures and forces. As can
be seen from the above, such a difference does not exist, and
both Secretary Schlesinger and I are relying upon the same body
of intelligence data. This can perhaps be more fully identified
in the enclosed copy of my entire testimony to the Joint Economic
Committee, and especially the charts on pages 28 and 29.
Since rely,
Ave r"
W. E. Colby
Director
Enclosure
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iww
Letter to The Honorable John McClellan
Re: Comments on Secretary Schlesinger's Letter
CONCUR:
28 Oct 1975
eputy Director Tor n e i c Date
fbr'
Distribution:
Original Addressee 1 - Secretary Schlesinger
1 Director
1 - DDCI
1 - Executive Registry
1 - DDS&T
1 - D/DCI/IC
1 - D/DCI/NIO
1 -OLC
1 - Comptroller
1 - DDI Chrono
1 - DDI File
1 - DDI
1 - D/OSR
1 - D/OER
1 - D/OCI
1 - OCI/Mr.
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