(GENERAL BEAUFRE ARTICLE: 'TOWARD CONFRONTATION IN THE OIL CRISIS? REFLECTIONS ON THE 'UNTHINKABLE' ')

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000200150016-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 1, 2006
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: October 24, 1974
• Content Type: CABLE

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LE FIGARO: WEST'S MILITARY INTERVENTION IN OIL STATES 'UNTHINKABLE'
L241056 PARIS LE FIGARO IN FRENCH S OCT 74 PP 1,2 L
(GENERAL BEAUFRE ARTICLES "TOWARD CONFRONTATION IN THE OIL
CRISIS? REFLECTIONS ON THE 'UNTHINKABLE`")
(TEXT) IN HIS LAST ARTICLE RAYMOND ARON ALLUDES TO WHAT NEWSWEEK
CALLS "THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE," THAT IS, A MILITARY OPERATION
TO SEIZE THE ARAB OIL WELLS AND GAIN CONTROL OF THEM. IT SEEMS
THAT THIS TEMPTATION ODES IN FACT EXIST IN CERTAIN U.S. CIRCLES.
IT IS NOT WITHOUT INTEREST TO EXAMINE THE POSSIBILITY OR,
MORE PRECISELY, THE FEASIBILITY OF SUCH AN OPERATION.
CONTRARY TO WHAT MIGHT BE THOUGHT A PRIORI, THE OCCUPATION OF THE
MAIN WELL. ZONES SOUTH OF THE PERSIAN GULF DOES NOT APPEAR TO
PRESENT INSURMOUNTABLE DIFFICULTIES; KUWAIT, BAHRAIN, QATAR,
THE OILFIELDS OF SAUDI ARABIA, AND THOSE OF ABU DHABI ARE QUITE
CLOSE TOGETHER AND LINKED WITH THE EXPORTING PORTS BY RELATIVELY
SHORT PIPELINES (RANGING FROM A FEW KILOMETERS TO JUST OVER
100 KILOMETERS) .
IT WOULD THEREFORE BE POSSIBLE TO OCCUPY THEM, AT A PRICE, AND
TO PROTECT THE INSTALLATIONS AGAINST SABOTAGE.. THIS COULD
NECESSITATE SOMETHING OF THE ORDER OF 10,000 MEN FOR EACH GROUP
OF TARGETS PLUS AN AIRBORNE RESERVE OF THE SAME SIZE TO INTERVENE
IN STRENGTH WHERE NECESSARY. THIS MEANS A TOTAL OF APPROXIMATELY
60,000 MEN AND QUITE A LARGE AIR FORCE. THE MAINTENANCE OF
SUCH A FORCE IN THE GULF ZONE WOULD UNDENIABLY REPRESENT A
HEAVY BURDEN FROM THE MILITARY VIEWPOINT.
FIRST, HOWEVER, THIS OCCUPATION COULD DO NOTHING TO PREVENT THE
DESTRUCTION OF THE BIB SAUDI PIPELINES TO THE,MEDITERRANEAN AND,
EVEN LESS, THAT OF THE IRAQI PIPELINES, WHICH WOULD SERIOUSLY HAMPER
THE SUPPLY OF OIL TO EUROPE. THIS IS A MAJOR DRAWBACK.
IN ADDITION AND ABOVE ALL, THE OCCUPATION OF THE OIL
INSTALLATIONS WOULD HAVE TO BE CARRIED OUT EVERYWHERE SIMULTANEOUSLY
AND BY SURPRISE IN ORDER TO AVOID THE PREVENTIVE SABOTAGE WHICH9
WE WE KNOW IN THE CASE OF KUWAIT, HAS BEEN PREPARED. THE ONLY
SOLUTION WOULD THEREFORE BE A BAST AIRBORNE OPERATION, A SORT OF
OIL ARNHEM, DESIGNED TO ALLOW THE APPROACH OF THE AIR FORCE AND
THE SIMULTANEOUS DROPPOING OF GROUND FORCES. HERE ABSOLUTE
IMPOSSIBILITIES ARISE: THE AMERICANS HAVE ONLY ONE DEIVISION,
THE 81ST (AS PUBLISHED): CAPABLE OF PARACHUTE OPERATIONS; IN
ADDITION, THE AVAILABLE AIRBASES ARE VERY FAR AWAY--WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ISRAEL AND IRAN--AND THE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS, WHOSE
APPROACH W 9P13DPvRd1FoFA B 2A 'IQ NIL7 Sad'PPIBDIP0U01i4fi OW2DO1 QQfl ' 0
INADEQUATE CAPACITY FOR THE NECESSARY 60,000 MEN.
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UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES THE OCCUPATION OF THE OIL SOURCES
WOULD HAVE TO BE PROGRESSIVE, WHICH WOULD VERY PROBABLY
GIVE RISE TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF PREVENTIVE DESTRUCTION, NOT
TO MENTION THE OIL BLOCKADE WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY BE IMPOSED BY THE
OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY LIBYA AND ALGERIA.... UNDER
THESE CIRCUMSTANCES IT MAY BE CONCLUDED THAT FROM A PURELY TECHNICAL
VIEWPOINT SUCH AN OPERATION CANNOT BE ENVISAGED. THIS MUST BE
CLEARLY SEEN. IT IS DOUBTLESS NOT UNPROFITABLE TO DEMONSTRATE IT.
BUT IF THE OPERATION APPEARS TECHNICALLY IMPOSSIBLE, IT IS
ESPECIALLY CATASTROPHIC ON THE PLANE OF THE OVERALL POLITICAL
SITUATION, THAT IS, THE TOTAL STRATEGY WHICH DOMINATES THE KIND OF
PEACETIME WAR OF OUR TIME.
INDEPENDENTLY OF THE MORAL TABOOS ESTABLED AFTER WORLD
WAR I, WHOSE IMPORTANCE SHOULD NOT BE MINIMIZED, A MILITARY
SEIZURE OF THE OIL SOURCES SHOUTH OF THE PERSIAN GULF WOULD MEAN--
ONCE AGAIN--THROWING INTO THE ARMS OF THE SOVIETS, NEIGHBOURS OF
THIS ZONE IN CAUCASIA, THE RICHEST AND CURRENTLY MOST PRO-WESTERN
ARAB STATES.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS FALSE MOVE WOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE
FOR THE DISAPPOINTMENTS OF THE USSR IN EGYPT LAST YEAR. VERY
PROBABLY THE RESULT WOULD BE NOT ONLY A SHIFT BY THE ARAB
WORLD AS A WHOLE BUT ALSO THE OPENING OF A NEW MILITARY ABSCESS
OF THE VIETNAM TYPE, WITH THE MORE OR LESS DIRECT SUPPORT OF THE
USSR. THIS WOULD REALLY BE A CASE OF HAVING ACTED WITH AN INSANE
RASHNESS LEADING TO INCALCULABLE ,CONSEQUENCES.
THEREFORE CERTAIN PEOPLE ARE THINKING, ACCORDING TO THE MODERN
STYLE OF WARFARE BY INTERMEDIARIES, OF INTERVENTION BY IRAN AND
ISRAEL. FIRST THERE IS NO PROOF THAT IRAN, WHICH IS STEPPING
UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF ITS ARMED FORCES, IS PREPARED TO PLAY THIS
GAME. IRAN IS AIMING AT DOMINATION OF THE PERSIAN GULF FOR ITS OWN
BENEFIT t NOT THAT OF THIRD PARTIES.
AS FOR THE USE OF THE ISRAELIS IN THE OIL PROBLEM, THIS WOULD LEAD
THEM UP A BLIND ALLEY BY FINALLY REMOVING ALL POSSIBILITY OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE ARAB WORLD AND THUS ALL FUTURE
PROSPECTS, SUPPOSING THAT ISRAEL COULD DO ANYTHING OTHER THAN
CONFRONT EGYPT AND SYRIA.
IN CONCLUSION, LET US RETURN TO THE LEVEL OF REASONABLE PROSPECTS.
THIS EXCURSION INTO THE "UNTHINKABLE" SHOWS THE ENORMOUS RISKS AND
THE IMPOSSIBILITIES OF A SOLUTION BY FORCE. ONCE AGAIN THE
SERIOUS POLITICAL PROBLEM OF OIL CARRIES WITH IT ONLY POLITICAL
SOLUTIONS AND THAT IS DOUBTLESS THE VEST WAY.
24 OCT 1259Z RK/CH
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 Approved For Release 2006/03/17 : CIA-RDP80B(}149
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Andrew Marshall
Director of Net Assessment
Department of Defense
Andy
I am attaching the Figaro article you
requested for Secretary Schlesinger.
Ed r roctor
Deputy Director for Intelligence
24 October 1974
(DATE)
FORM GN 54 101 WHICH RELACES
MAY FORM
I AU
BE USED.
STAT
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 Approved9 F .11 asQ 2000/03/1177 D(3A-RDP80B01495R00
Date: 23 Oct 74
TO . Messrs. Proctor/Walsh
FROM
SUBJECT: Schlesinger Request for Figaro Article
Andy Marshall called this afternoon to say
that Schlesinger had been told by a French
visitor of an article that appeared about ten
days ago in Le Figaro. The piece is by General
(Ret.) Andre Baufre spelling uncertain) and
concerns the feasibility of US interdiction
or seizure of oil production facilities in the
Middle East. English version is preferable,
but French will do.
I called who said he would
try to get the article tor us.
LGC~[ a Clc c 4D~~ ed~Qo ~~f J
21 f~ Ate/ Q{C L.. ' t