POST-MORTEM ON CIA REPORTING ON THE SITUATION IN CAMBODIA AFTER THE BOMBING HALT

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP80B01495R000300050008-9
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
November 23, 2005
Sequence Number: 
8
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
September 21, 1973
Content Type: 
MF
File: 
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PDF icon CIA-RDP80B01495R000300050008-9.pdf80.84 KB
Body: 
Approved For F ase 2006/02/9V CIi - DP80B01495%00300050008-9 MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence FROM : Deputy Director for Intelligence SUBJECT : Post-Mortem on CIA Reporting on the Situation in Cambodia After the Bombing Halt 1. Attached is the post-mortem you requested on our reporting on the likely course of events in Cambodia after the bombing halt of 15 August 1973. The post-mortem was prepared by OCI and coordinated with DDO, SAVA, ONE, and OER. I think the post-mortern is a very fair evaluation, although I would have preferred, of course, that our batting average was some- what better when it came to our forward-looking estimating. 2. I think two observations are in order. In the estimating field, this post-mortem points out the difficulty of making estimates when so much of the analysts' judgment depends upon his knowledge of future US courses of action. By this I mean that if the com- munity had been aware of the massive scale of bombing which the US was going to undertake, I am sure the estimate would then have turned to the really critical question--What will be-the effects of this bombing on Khmer Communist capabilities ? This sort of inquiry would have led to a judgment that the Khmer Communist capabilities would be so severely degraded by the time the bombing had stopped that we would not have been so pessimistic about the capabilities of the FANK forces and the Cambodian government to continue. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release X006/04/01 : CIA-RDP80BO1495R000300050008-9 Approved For ease 2006/02/01 : CIA-RDP80B01495W0300050008-9 3. My second observation is that we performed better in our current intelligence reporting for-the period following the estimate. I think the citations and the post-mortem point out quite clearly that we were warning our readers that the capabilities of the Communists to pull off any large-scale offensive were being weakened and, more to the point, could not be rebuilt for some time after the bombing halt. 25X1 EDWARD W. PROCTOR Deputy Director for Intelligence Attachment: ADDI/PVWalsh/tb (21 Sept 73) Distribution: Cy #1 - Director w/att (Cy #1) 2 - DDCI w/att (Cy #2) 3-ERw/oatt D/OCI w/o att 5 - DDI File w/att (Cy #3) - 4,0; C w, ""'Ju ax Approved For. Release 2006/02/01 : CIA-RDP80B01495R000300050008-9 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/02/01 : CIA-RDP80BO1495R000300050008-9 Approved For Release 2006/02/01 : CIA-RDP80BO1495R000300050008-9