THE RISOP QUESTION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000500080010-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: November 4, 1974
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Releasew2005/1 T/Z MIP
R000502980010-1
4 November 1974
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Director
SUBJECT : The RISOP Question
1. My 22 October session with the Secretary of Defense
was largely devoted to the issues involved in costing Soviet
defense expenditures. After the main session ended and
the economists had left the room, however, I quietly brought
up the RISOP matter (per your request), explaining that
you were still getting some pressure on this topic from
the PFIAB, particularly its Chairman. Schlesinger turned
to Andy Marshall and asked him to pursue this question
with me.
2. On 25 October, Andy Marshall came to my office in
compliance with Jim Schlesinger's instructions. Also
artici a in that session were Howard Stoertz and
acting for who was on leave).
I briefly sketched the relevant background, touching on
your discussions with the PFIAB last spring and the
correspondence generated by Admiral Anderson as a result of
the problems he and some of his Board members had with what
they (erroneously) thought was the intent of the sentence
in last year's NIE 11-8 which said the Intelligence
Community did not foresee the Soviets developing a true
first-strike capability within the next decade. After
explaining the background, including my two brief dis-
cussions with the Secretary and one conversation with
General Dougherty (the Commander of SAC), and stressing
that you had no desire or intent to trespass on the Secre-
tary of Defense's turf, I made two suggestions to get the
conversation rolling:
? (a) That arrangements be made for you and a-
small number of your most senior subordinates
directly involved with this problem to be briefed
on the results of the SIOP/RISOP gaming done every
six months by (alternately) SAGA and the JSTPS.
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(b) That appropriate steps be taken for know-
ledgeable persons representing you in your
capacity as DCI to contribute to the judgments on
Soviet perceptions, intentions and objectives
which are folded into this gaming process.
3. Marshall listened attentively and courteously. He
appeared to accept our assurances that neither you nor any
of your representatives had any desire to involve themselves
in U.S. strategic planning (e.g., the STOP) and also to
accept our proposition that Soviet perceptions, intentions
and objectives were not solely departmental concerns of
the Secretary of Defense but also national intelligence
questions for which you bore a measure of responsibility.
Marshall promised to look into this problem further and
be back in touch. He had no apparent conceptual trouble
with either of the specific recommendations I advanced for
consideration but (naturally) made no promises or commitments
at this session.
George/A. Carverq Jr
.
Deputy for National Intelligence Officers
cc: DDCI
,D,DS&T
DI
NIO/SP
NTO/USSR
Executive Registry
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Attached is a memo to the Director
from Carver on the subject of "The RISOP
Question". It is Secret Sensitive.
Should we dissem to OSR?
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FORM NO. REPLACES FORM 10.101
1 AUG 54 IQI WHICH MAY BE USED.
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