STATUS OF ERG

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000700080009-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: March 14, 1973
• Content Type: MEMO

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NOTE FOR Mr. Edward W. Proctor, DD/I
References: A. I Imemo of 23 February
1973, Experimental Research Group (ERG)
B. II memo of 14 February
1973, Topics for the Experimental
Research Group
1. Further to my ref A, and especially its
para. 9, the stature of the strawboss will to a
great degree determine whether the ERG contingent
is for real or cosmetic. I will of course guide and
manage ERG and its projects, keep both'ears to the
ground re consumers and their interests, and
occasionally put in a substantive oar of my own.
But I am not a seasoned n.m. practitioner, and my
energies will continue to be spread over a number
of other concerns. Thus, the need for someone of
the experience and caliber of
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2. I like what I've seen of I He
is indeed experienced in n.m. I find that he
commands wide res ec As I have mentioned to
Paul, I think its a bit more mathematical/
statistical than ERG's major focuses should be,
but, then, I am myself probably not n.m. enough;
the two of us, in harness, would be just about
right.
3. Which of I ref. B projects we
might undertake, if any, would depend on the makeup
of the rest of ERG's people, and on negotiations
between and myself. Once I was satisfied
that ER should have a go at this or that project,
I would give 1I wide latitude in developing
these, keeping me informed of their status, and
bringing me in as the need arises for important
decisions concerning direction or judgment. In
addition to consumer interests, I would keep watch
for DDI projects underway which might lend them-
selves to special ERG annexes, and for areas of DDI
analytic need which perhaps were not being treated.
As I mentioned in ref A, ERG should for the most
part eschew highly mathematical or quantitative
subjects, as well as purely "experimental" items
divorced from real-life analytic problems. Instead,
ERG should aim at seeing what n.m. wisdom or refine-
ments can be brought to the analysis of soft,
political items.
4. As for the ERG people, I have been looking
for brains and imaginativeness. Here's where we
stand:
a. Strawboss, I I or a
reasonably accurate acsimi e. He is
ideal for the job, though yet to be
commissioned.
-2-
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5. Space. I understand that there are some
warm maybe places here in Hqs. Bldg., but such
remains to be nailed down. I would like to hang
out the shingle the first week of April.
6. Specific projects, now that April's
here. Still of course to be worked out, in concert
with the strawboss, but possibly involving one or
more of these (again, not necessarily in this
order):
a. ref B rapid intelli-
gence warning s(
ref B discriminant
analysis' iaea.
b.
c. An ERG special annex to the big
Soviet-US action/interaction request
made of you a few weeks
Chief,,' Special Research Staff
-5-
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d. The influence of personalities
in bureaucratic politics and role
playing.
e. Problems of perception and of
receptivity to new data on the part of
intelligence analysts.
f. A model on Soviet policy approaches
to the problem of China.
7. In haste,
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23 February 1973
MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director for Intelligence
SUBJECT Experimental Research Group (ERG)
Ed/Paul -- While waiting for ERG people and living
space to materialize, I think it useful to record some
of my considered thinking at this stage, in brief outline
form, concerning ERG philosophy, projects, procedures,
and preparation.
1. Philosophy. My own approach to new methodologies
(n.m.) has ;come an in-between one. I have not been
convinced by my scouting to date that great expectations
from n.m. are justified. As I outline below, however,
there are some definite refinements which seem reasonably
possible, over and above the obvious merits of our
responding to NSC/Staff and (I assume) DCI interest.
2. As I recently told the Senior Seminar, our n.m.
emphases must be on people, not on methodologies. This is
my own view, plus that ofthe advice I have received on
the subject from all n.m. quarters, in and out of government.
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 ~; FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
STAT
STAT
I I CLASSIFED
~pprov~F
[] SECRET
ROW'IN AND RECORD SHEET
FILE: ERG
_~ --
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Experimental Research Group (ERG)
f ftOM: EXTENSION
NO.
DACE
23 Februa.xj--1973
TO: {Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DATE
OFFICER'S
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
INITIALS
to whom. Draw a line, across column after each comment.)
RECEIVED FORWARDED
2. ADI)I/lair. Paul V. Val
h
71.44, Hqs.
--
-
3- DDI/Mr. Edward W. Pro
ctor
7E44, I-Iqs.
4
c6.
10.
12.
1.4
1~.
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