MURPHY COMMISSION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01495R000900060011-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 22, 2005
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: August 16, 1974
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2005/11/23 : CIA-RDP80BO1495R000900060011-8
Approved For Release 2005/11/23 : CIA-RDP80BO1495R000900060011-8
 Approved For Release 2005/11/23 CIA-RDP80B01495R000900060011-8
STAT
STAT
STAT
COMMISSION ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE.GOVERNMENT
FOR THE CONDUCT OF FOREIGN.POLICY .
2025 M STREET, N.W.
WASHINGTON. D.C. 20506
August 15, 1974
Washington, D. C.
Intelligence Community Staff
Dear
As you requested in your conversation with Bill'Bacchus
of our staff, PhilOldenburg's needs for information in con-
Some sense of Intelligence Community estimates of
the net gains and losses to the United States of the
expansion of the Diego Garcia'base, with reference
to (a) countering Soviet naval/growth; (b) ?elations
with South Asia; (c) the ability to intervene, if
necessary, in the Persian Gulf Region.
After-the-fact evaluations of. the effect of United
States' arms transfers to South Asia (particularly
thosein 1969 and 1970) in terms of (a) the impact
on the stability of the region; (b) the growth or
decline of United States influence on the governments
o .India and/or Pakistan.
To the extent possible, a sense of what was known by
the Intelligence Community and what information , was
sent to whom among the..policy makers on the prospects
of the, Mukti Bahini during 1971. A special point of
interest was whether the strength of-the MuktiBahini
'general terms, estimates existing during 1971 about
the intentions of senior level Pakistani military
officers, and who received how much of this information.
Confirmation or Correction of the asserted existence of
a CIA.estimate in April, ` 1971_ suggesting that a.likely
outcome of.thetensions between East and West'.:Pakistan
would be the. break-up of.Pakistan. This would be
important as a means of. assessing.whether.policy
makers were in possession of the best available.informa--
tion,
junction with our "Coordination in Complex Settings" Study
include the following:
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Page
On another subject, let me confirm to you that Professor
Alexander George holds a current SECRET clearance in conjunc-
tion with his status as a RAND Corporation consultant. As the
proposal for his project which you already have indicates,
Professor George's interests on behalf of the Commission are
in the general area of impediments to rational decision making,
whether they arise from psychological or physiological stress,
imperfect ipformation, effects of small group decision making
or related factors. Thus, Professor George would be interested
in consulting with Intelligence Community experts who have de-
voted attention to such topics. He would not be looking at
specific policies or decisions, nor to specific examples of
individual or government performance.
Let me emphasize again my conviction that officers of the
Intelligence Community are in a position to be of great assist-
ance to the Commission and the importance of their contributions
if we are to meet our own responsibilities.
Thank you very much for your assistance and should any
questions arise concerning the Oldenburg or George request,
please contact Bill Bacchus at 254-9850.
Sine.ely,
Fisher Howe
Deputy Executive Director
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