KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1976

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01500R000200240020-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 24, 1998
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: November 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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ORN
DIRECTOR of CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Key Intelligence Questions
For'
Fiscal Year 1976
October 1975
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DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS
for
FISCAL YEAR 1976
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Table of Contents
Page
Introduction ......................................................... 1
Substantive Objective No. 1 ............................................ 3
Key Intelligence Questions ............................................. 3
Soviet Political Dynamics ............................................ 3
Soviet Strategic Objectives ........................................... 4
Soviet Military R&D and Advanced Technology ........................ 4
Soviet ICBM Systems ............................................... 5
Soviet Nuclear, Chemical, Biological Warfare Capabilities ............... 5
Soviet Cruise Missiles .............................................. 5
Soviet Long Range Aviation ......................................... 5
Soviet Naval Systems ............................................... 5
Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses ............................. 6
Soviet Defense Costs ................................................ 6
Arms Limitation Negotiations ....................................... 6
Europe: Warsaw Pact-NATO-MBFR ................................. 6
Eastern Europe ..................................................... 6
Substantive Objective No. 2 ........................................... 7
Key Intelligence Questions ............................................ 7
China: Internal Politics and Foreign Policy ............................ 7
Chinese Military Capabilities ........................................ 8
Substantive Objective No. 3 ............................................ 9
Key Intelligence Questions ............................................ 9
The Middle East ................................................... 9
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South and Southeast Asia ...............
Latin America ..................................................... 11
Sub-Saharan Africa ................................................. 12
Third World ....................................................... 12
Terrorism .......................................................... 12
Substantive Objective No. 4 ........................................... 13
Key Intelligence Question ............................................. 13
Substantive Objective No. 5 ........................................... 14
Key Intelligence Questions ............................................ 14
Prospects for Inflation and Recovery ................................. 14
Multilateral Trade Negotiations ...................................... 14
Activities of Major Oil Exporters .................................... 14
Policies of Producers of Important Raw Materials Other Than Petroleum .. 14
Foreign Demand for US Agricultural Products ........................ 15
Foreign Trade Opportunities ........................................ 15
Law of the Sea ..................................................... 15
Additional Key Intelligence Questions .................................. 16
Narcotics .......................................................... 16
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Key Intelligence Questions
For FY 1976
Introduction
1. These Key Intelligence Questions are designed to be responsive to and to
support the Substantive Objectives of the Intelligence Community for FY 1976
as noted by the United States Intelligence Board on June 13, 1975, prior to the
submission of those Objectives to the President.
2. The Key Intelligence Questions for Fiscal Year 1976 are issued as guidance
to the Intelligence Community for the collection and production of intelligence
on subjects of major importance to national-level intelligence consumers during
FY 1976. These Key Intelligence Questions obviously do not exhaust the universe
of consumer needs; there are additional important categories of intelligence col-
lection and production which are not included in this priority national intelligence
guidance:
(a) Lower priority national intelligence subjects: These are deliberately
omitted in order to emphasize the importance of the Key Intelligence Ques-
tions. It is recognized that some attention must be devoted to lower priority
subjects, such as developments in Africa, although wherever possible less
expensive and less difficult collection techniques should be employed. A level
of attention must also be devoted to countries and issues deemed likely to
become important some years from now, even though they may not pose im-
mediate or pressing major problems during FY 1976.
(b) Departmental and tactical intelligence: This includes the intelligence
requirements of the several Cabinet departments and independent agencies
with foreign intelligence needs, of the operational commanders of US forces,
of certain other US officials (such as Ambassadors), as well as certain warn-
ing and surveillance activities. An appropriate portion of the national intelli-
gence effort must be devoted to meeting these needs, and the National Foreign
Intelligence Budget Recommendations will take them into account. Continu-
ing efforts will be made to improve the interaction and mutual support of na-
tional and tactical intelligence programs so that the needs of each level may be
served by the same activities to the maximum extent possible. In framing
these Key Intelligence Questions for FY 1976, careful consideration was also
paid to departmental objectives with national implications or overtones. The
Defense Key Intelligence Questions which replaced the Critical Near-Term
Defense Intelligence Objectives of the Department of Defense were given
special attention.
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3. The Key Intelligence Questions are circulated for the following purposes:
(a) First, to insure that these subjects are given priority in the regular
collection and production activities of appropriate elements of the Intelligence
Community.
(b) Second, to enable review of collection and production planning by
the member agencies of the Intelligence Community via a brief, succinct
Strategy Report prepared on each KIQ under the aegis of the appropriate
National Intelligence Officer.
(c) Third, to provide the basis for a recapitulation and evaluation, after
the close of the fiscal year, of the performance of the Intelligence Commu-
nity-and of individual agencies-on each of the Key Intelligence Questions.
(d) Fourth, to permit the conclusions drawn from the recapitulation
and evaluation of the FY 1976 effort to be used as factors in Community re-
source allocations, and in the preparation of the National Foreign Intelligence
Budget Recommendations which the Director of Central Intelligence will be
sending to the President.
4. The Key Intelligence Questions have been grouped, where possible, under
one of the five Substantive Objectives for the Intelligence Community as sub-
mitted to the President by the Director of Central Intelligence. The order in which
the FY 1976 questions are listed should not be regarded as implying an internal
priority: by definition, all the Key Intelligence Questions are of major importance.
5. Additions or modifications to the Key Intelligence Questions may be issued
from time to time during FY 1976, if major changes in the international situation
or the foreign intelligence environment should so dictate.
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Substantive Intelligence Objectives
and
Key Intelligence Questions
Provide reliable and timely foreign intelligence reports, assessments, and estimates
to the President and other elements of the US Government involved in policy formula-
tion, international negotiations, and major operational decisions on:
Substantive Objective No. 1
Soviet policies, intentions, and capabilities for the execution of political,
security and economic programs, with particular reference to:
- changes in Soviet leadership and the dynamics of and factors affecting
Soviet decision making;
- providing early warning of scientific and technical advances which could
significantly affect the US national security or national welfare;
- major developments in Soviet military RDT&E of weapon systems, de-
ployment, and order of battle;
- Soviet compliance with the Strategic Arms Limitation agreements, the
Limited Test Ban Treaty, possible Mutual Balanced Force Reduction
agreements, and the observance of cease-fire or peace treaty arrangements;
Soviet perception of US and Allied negotiating positions and force capa-
bilities with respect to these issues;
- Prospects for Soviet agricultural shortfalls and early warning of Soviet
entry into the international (particularly the US) market for food stuffs;
and
Soviet extension of political influence and military power outside of the
USSR.
Key Intelligence Questions
Soviet Political Dynamics
1. What are the prospects for progress, stagnation, or cooling in bilateral
Soviet-US relations?
Include how the USSR evaluates the US as both adversary and partner,
particularly in arms control negotiations, economic relations, and compe-
tition in major regions of the world?
2. How are the political alignments and policy priorities of the Soviet hier-
archy and key interest groups developing as the USSR undertakes the 25th Party
Congress and looks toward a post-Brezhnev era?
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Consider what difference the eventual departure of the Politburo seniors
might make in Soviet policy making.
3. What are Soviet objectives and current policy in the following areas?
Western and Southern Europe-with special attention to Portugal. Con-
sider the levels of Soviet assistance to important Communist Parties and
fronts. The Middle East, including attitudes and tactics toward an Arab
Israeli settlement or renewed hostilities; bilateral Soviet dealings with
the major regional states; the Mediterranean, the Persian Gulf and Indian
Ocean. Asia (Northeast, Southeast and South) in the post-Vietnam
period.
4. In the Sino-Soviet relationship, what are the capabilities, intentions, and
expectations of the two sides-conflict, confrontation, accommodation, or con-
tinued uneasy stalemate?
5. What is the importance to the Soviets of imported Western technology,
and how successful are they in acquiring and using it?
Particular importance attaches to technology having possible economic
and military utility.
Soviet Strategic Objectives
6. What are Soviet objectives, policies, deployment plans and perceptions
relating to strategic weapons and the strategic balance?
Give particular attention to how the Soviets rationalize their strategic
weapons programs and what goals they have set for themselves in the
area of strategic weaponry vis-a-vis the US-such as catching up, or at-
taining some sort of superiority.
7. What doctrine, strategy, and plans do the Soviets have for the command
and control and use of strategic nuclear forces, including limited employment of
nuclear weapons?
Include any support provided by manned space systems.
8. What are the prospects that Soviet dependency on space systems for sup-
port of military and intelligence operations will deter them from interference with
similar US satellite systems?
Consider how (e.g., electronic methods and direct physical attack), and
under what circumstances, they might attempt to neutralize any such US
systems, including their ground as well as space based elements.
Soviet Military R&D and Advanced Technology
9. What progress are the Soviets making in early research and development
and advanced technologies which could lead to significant qualitative improve-
ments in existing weapon systems, or to the development of weapon systems
based on novel technical means?
10. What progress are the Soviets making toward strategic applications of
lasers and beam weapons?
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Soviet ICBM Systems
11. What progress are the Soviets making in increasing the counterforce
capability of their ICBM forces?
Give particular attention to the accuracies of the Soviet SS-X-16, 17, 18
and 19 ICBM systems.
12. What progress are the Soviets making in improving the survivability of
their ICBM forces?
Consider whether the Soviets are developing and deploying land-mobile
ICBMs, and if so, what progress is being made.
Soviet Nuclear, Chemical, Biological Warfare Capabilities
13. What are Soviet objectives in nuclear weapons technology, and what
progress are the Soviets making in this area?
14. What are Soviet capabilities to conduct chemical and biological warfare
and to operate in a radiological environment?
Soviet Cruise Missiles
15. What are Soviet intentions and progress in the development of long-range
cruise missile systems for use against land targets?
Soviet Long Range Aviation
16. What is the intended size, role and armament of the Backfire force?
17. What progress have the Soviets made in development of improved tank-
ers, a follow-on heavy bomber, or a stand-off carrier for air-to-surface missiles?
Soviet Naval Systems
18. What programs and plans do the Soviets have for the development and
deployment of SLBM systems, including modifications to existing systems?
Include any changes made in SSBN operational practices and patrol
areas, and command and control capabilities.
19. What progress have the Soviets made in development of antiship missile
systems?
Include the characteristics of the guidance systems.
20. What progress are the Soviets making toward acquisition of an effective
capability for trailing submarines, and for detecting and localizing them in the
open ocean?
21. What is the status of Soviet RDT&E on, and what progress is being made
toward, expanded deployment and improved reporting capabilities of the present
satellite borne ocean surveillance systems, and what progress is being made toward
deploying a new radar ocean surveillance satellite system which would overcome
the limitations of the present system?
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Soviet Strategic Air and Missile Defenses
22. What progress are the Soviets making in ABM development, and what
are their plans for further deployment?
23. What progress are the Soviets making in development and deployment
of defenses against aircraft and missiles attacking at low altitudes?
Soviet Defense Costs
24. What are the costs of Soviet and Warsaw Pact weapon systems and de-
fense programs?
Include information on how they are financed; how they influence de-
fense planning and overall economic planning and performance; and on
how the Soviet weapons research and development and acquisition proc-
esses work.
Arms Limitation Negotiations
25. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact objectives and positions in arms limita-
tions negotiations?
26. What are Soviet and Warsaw Pact intentions and actions-including any
concealment and deception-with respect to adherence to arms limitations agree-
ments with the United States?
Europe: Warsaw Pact-NATO-MBFR
27. What are the size and composition of the Warsaw Pact and NATO forces
in the NATO Guidelines Area (NGA)?
28. What are the capabilities, including the strengths and weaknesses, of the
Warsaw Pact forces for conducting a war in the central region of Europe without
prior reinforcement?
29. What are Warsaw Pact views, plans and doctrine for conducting war in
Europe, including readiness, mobilization and reinforcement of Pact forces?
30. What are Warsaw Pact capabilities to fight a sustained non-nuclear war in
Europe, including critical stockpiles and the operation of the rear services?
31. What are the trends in Soviet strategic airlift capability?
32. What are the strengths and weaknesses of non-US NATO forces for war
in Europe and the intentions of these forces to react in the event of war with the
Warsaw Pact?
Eastern Europe
33. How are political forces in Yugoslavia evolving, from the standpoints of
internal cohesion and international alignment in the post-Tito period?
Give attention to Soviet policy and activity toward Yugoslavia.
34. What trends and developments are likely in USSR-Eastern European
relationships-greater cohesion, greater autonomy, growing conflict?
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Provide reliable and timely foreign intelligence reports, assessments, and estimates
to the President and other elements of the US Government involved in policy formula-
tion, international negotiations, and major operational decisions on:
Substantive Objective No. 2
Developments within and policies, intentions, decision making processes, and
capabilities of the People's Republic of China in key political, military and
economic areas which impact on important interests of the United States, its
allies, the USSR, the rest of Asia and the more influential underdeveloped
countries.
Key Intelligence Questions
China: Internal Politics and Foreign Policy
35. What major trends and changes are likely in Chinese foreign and mili-
tary policies relating to the US and the USSR.
Include Chinese policy toward use of nuclear weapons and the capabili-
ties of Chinese general forces, as well as offensive and defensive postures.
36. What are the internal stresses and alignments within the central leader-
ship and at the key regional levels, and how are these likely to affect the main
lines of China's foreign policy and its economic and military policies?
Consider how these policies are likely to be changed by the successors
to Mao and Chou.
37. Will China maintain its economic development, and to what extent
will it rely on the West to support its economy especially in areas related to its
Military Industrial complex?
Include how weapon systems and defense programs are financed and
how they influence defense and overall ecpnomic planning and per-
38. What are China's policies and activities toward maintaining and ex-
panding its influence in the Third World, and do these policies contribute to
disorder or stability?
Pay particular attention to those PRC activities detrimental to US
interests.
39. What are Peking's objectives toward the countries in East Asia; par-
ticularly, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam and Japan?
Consider China's capabilities to project itself into the East and South
China Seas.
40. Will Chinese and Indian relations with respect to the Himalayan States
and Pakistan lead toward military confrontation or accommodations?
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41. What will be Chinese tactics against and negotiating position on Taiwan?
Include Peking's reaction to Taiwan's development of a nuclear weapon.
Also consider Taiwan's policies toward Peking, including the relationship
of these policies to Taiwan's nuclear development programs.
Chinese Military Capabilities
42. What progress are the Chinese making toward acquiring nuclear ca-
pabilities against the US and the USSR, and what is the status of their nuclear
and missile R&D technology?
Emphasize locations and capabilities of delivery vehicles, and the num-
bers and types of weapons in stockpile.
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Provide reliable and timely foreign intelligence reports, assessments, and estimates
to the President and other elements of the US Government involved in policy formula-
tion, international negotiations, and major operational decisions on:
Substantive Objective No. 3
Political and military developments and trends (including terrorism) in
tentially volatile international situations of strategic concern to the US.
Key Intelligence Questions
The Middle East
43. What are Israeli and Arab (especially Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, Saudi
and Palestinian) views on and strategies toward the major issues of a peace
settlement?
44. What are Arab and Israeli military capabilities, plans and intentions? P
45. What is the status of major inter-Arab relationships and Iranian-Arab
relations?
46. What is the possibility for and implications of serious political and eco-
nomic problems within the key Middle East countries (e.g., Israel, Saudi Arabia,
Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Iran and Iraq)?
47. What are the plans and actions of the Arab states and Iran for the
political use of petrodollars and for the threatened or actual withholding of
oil as a political lever?
48. What indications are there of internal and regional instability in South
Asia?
Pay special attention to India, Iran, and the roles of the USSR and
China and the major powers involved in the area.
49. What is the interplay in Southeast Asia among China, the USSR, and
the Communist states of Indochina?
Include the strategies and objectives of the Communist states; North
Vietnamese and Chinese support to insurgencies, particularly in Thai-
land; differences and rivalries among the Communist states; and the
reactions of the Southeast Asian countries.
50. What are the prospects for stability in the countries of Southeast Asia,
especially Thailand, and for relations with the US?
Include new political, economic or military alignments that may emerge
in Southeast Asia and their implications for US relations in the area,
e.g., impact on US base rights and intelligence facilities, regional co-
operation and US economic interests.
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25X6A
56. What political, economic, and security developments seriously affect im-
portant US interests, particularly in major countries?
Include indicators of instability of major governments, blocs or align-
ments being formed among Latin American states, and public and gov-
ernmental attitudes on matters at issue between the US and Latin Amer-
ica (Trade Reform Act, future of Panama Canal, etc.).
57. What are Cuban attitudes and interests regarding the normalization of
relations with the US and regarding the advocacy of positions undercutting the
US in Latin America?
Consider the role that the USSR plays in these processes.
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58. What will the Panamanian government's attitudes and actions be during
the course of negotiations for a new canal treaty and, if a treaty is signed, during
the ratification process?
Include willingness and/or ability to accept delay or breakoff of nego-
tiations, or delay or rejection of a treaty, and plans for pressure tactics
against the US, particularly a resort to violent methods.
59. What political, economic, and security developments affect important
US interests?
Include indications of developing international alignments by newly in-
dependent countries and effects of US policies on progress toward solu-
tion of major problems in southern Africa.
60. What are the major trends and plans of the Third World countries acting
in concert with respect to:
- the work of international organizations, including regional economic as-
sociations;
- policies toward the US, USSR and China;
- efforts to reduce economic disparity with the industrial world;
- interference with traditional patterns of economic relations, including
expropriation without compensation, cartels, and export restraints?
61. What are the composition, intentions, and capabilities of foreign terrorist
or extremist groups?
Include their sources of membership, funds and equipment, the possi-
bility of seizure or production and use of weapons of mass destruction
(BW-CW as well as nuclear), their impact on government policy, es-
pecially toward the US, and stability in their host countries, and any evi-
dence that Communist or other countries are influencing them, or render-
ing direct support.
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Provide reliable and timely foreign intelligence reports, assessments, and estimates
to the President and other elements of the US Government involved in policy formula-
tion, international negotiations, and major operational decisions on:
Substantive Objective No. 4
Policies, intentions and capabilities of foreign states other than the USSR and
the PRC to develop nuclear weapons, chemical and biological weapons, and de-
livery systems to employ them.
Key Intelligence Question
62. What are the objectives, programs and capabilities of countries other than
the US, USSR, UK, France and the PRC for developing or acquiring nuclear
weapons and delivery systems?
Include policies and actions of other countries (including nuclear
powers) toward assisting the non-nuclear states in acquiring a nuclear
capability.
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25X6A
Provide reliable and timely foreign intelligence reports, assessments, and estimates
to the President and other elements of the US Government involved in policy formula-
tion, international negotiations, and major operational decisions on:
Substantive Objective No. 5
Major foreign economic developments and trends relevant to US international
policy decisions and negotiations, particularly those related to energy, raw ma-
terials, food resources, and to international trade and monetary arrangements.
Key Intelligence Questions
Prospects for Inflation and Recovery
63. What changes in economic performance are expected for the major non-
Communist industrial nations,
Include these governments' foreign economic policies, the domestic de-
velopments likely to affect these policies, and consequences for both
these economies and the US.
25X6A
Multilateral Trade Negotiations
64. What are the principal objectives of k
25X6A
in the forthcoming
Include their possible negotiating tradeoffs and the electoral and intra-
governmental factors that affect these objectives and tradeoffs. Are there
foreseeable major consequences of alternative provisions of trade agree-
ments, e.g., for foreign trade balances, dollar exchange rates, key in-
dustries?
multilateral trade negotiations?
Activities of Major Oil Exporters
65. What are the major oil exporting countries doing with their income?
Include for each capacity to spend and policy on placement of financial
reserves. What are the changes in amounts and composition (by location,
currency, type of asset and maturity) of their foreign assets?
66. What are the policies, negotiating positions and vulnerabilities of the
major petroleum exporters with respect to the production and marketing of oil?
Include the prospects for the development of major new energy sources,
particularly exports of oil from non-OPEC countries, and the impact of
such changes on OPEC policies and vulnerabilities.
Policies of Producers of Important Raw Materials other than Petroleum
67. What changes in production, marketing and pricing policies are the
25X6A major reducers of important raw materials or primary products
considering either individually or in concert?
25X6A1
25X6A
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Foreign Demand for US Agricultural Products 25X6A
68. What is the likely demand
25X6A
Foreign Trade Opportunities
25X6A 69. What actions are being taken b
for imports of wheat, soybeans, rice, corn and cotton?
Consider the ca abilities of countries other than the US
or supplying these commodities to the
world market.
25X6A
foreign governments
that could substantial y impair
the ability of American business to compete for foreign sales, construction, or
service contracts in third countries?
Law of the Sea
70. What are the negotiating positions and bargaining vulnerabilities of key
countries on the form and content of a Law of the Sea treaty?
Give particular attention to issues on which the attitudes and intentions of
these countries are likely to be so contentious as to jeopardize prospects
for a treaty even minimally acceptable to the United States.
25X6A
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Additional Key Intelligence Questions
71. Who are the major foreign producers, traffickers, and financiers involved
in illicit narcotics?
Include their methods of operation, sources of material, facilities, inter-
national connections and foreign official involvement, and how and by
what routes and timing they move illicit narcotics to the United States.
72. How effective are the anti-narcotics programs of the countries in cate-
gories 1 and 2 designated by the Cabinet Committee on International Narcotics
Control as of priority interest to the US Government's international narcotics con-
trol programs?*
Include the willingness of these governments to cooperate with and com-
mit resources to US efforts to expose and prosecute producers, traffickers
and their collaborators. Also, identify individuals in the respective gov-
ernments who protect and facilitate illicit narcotics traffic.
Include the attitudes of government officials and other key political lead-
ers as well as the people concerned with the international narcotics con-
trol effort toward present and pending international narcotics conventions
and protocols, and specifically toward US and UN efforts.
*At present, these two categories include Mexico, Thailand, Burma, Turkey, France, Paki-
stan, and Colombia; consideration is being given to adding Ecuador, India, and other countries.
It should be noted that countries may be added to or dropped from these categories by the
Cabinet Committee on International Narcotics Control as circumstances dictate.
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