KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1974

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
20
Document Creation Date: 
November 9, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 5, 1998
Sequence Number: 
2
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 4, 1974
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2.pdf372.07 KB
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Approved For Release 1999/09/0.8 : CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2 DIRECTOR of CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE Key Intelligence Questions For Fiscal Year 1974 4 January 1974 DCI/IC 74-1215 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2 WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. Classified by 365211 Exempt from general declassification schedule of E.O. 11652 exemption category 5B(2) Automatically declassified on Impossible to determine (unless impossible, insert date or event) Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2 Approved For Releae 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO15QGR000200270002-2 Key Intelligence Questions for FY 1974 25X6A 25X6A Page Introduction ................................. 1 Soviet Union/Eastern Europe .................. 3 Sino-Soviet Relations ........................ 7 The People's Republic of China ............... 8 Middle East and Moslem World ................. 10 Southeast Asia ............................... 12 Latin America ................................ 14 Economics .................................... 15 General, Worldwide ........................... 18 Approved For Release 1999/09/ B01500R000200270002-2 Approved For Rele4 a 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B015WR000200270002-2 KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR FY 1974 INTRODUCTION 1. The attached compilation of Key Intelligence Questions for Fiscal Year 1974 is issued as guidance to the Intelligence Community for the collection and production of intelligence on subjects of major importance to national-level intelligence consumers. 2. Two additional categories of intelligence collection and production, not included in this priority national intelligence guidance, are: a. Lower priority national intelligence subjects: These are deliberately omitted in order to highlight the priority which attaches to the Key Intelligence Questions. It is recognized that some attention must be devoted to lower priority subjects (e.g., developments in Africa), although such subjects should, to the extent possible, require less expensive and less difficult collection techniques. The relative priorities of the broad spectrum of intelligence topics are reflected in the compre- hensive listing of U.S. foreign intelligence topics in the Attachment to DCID 1/2 currently being considered by the USIB. b. Departmental and tactical intelligence (including the intelligence requirements of f he operational commanders, certain warning and surveillance activities, etc.): It is clear that some appropriate portion of the national intelligence effort must be devoted to meeting these needs, and the National Foreign Intelligence Budget Recommendations take account of this fact. Continuing efforts will be made to improve the interaction and mutual support of national and tactical programs so that each may be served by the same activities to the maximum extent possible. 3. The attached Key Intelligence Questions are circulated for the following purposes: First, to insure that these subjects are given priority in the regular collection and production activities of appropriate elements of the Intelligence Community. Second, to enable preparation of a baseline review (as soon as feasible for FY 1974, but normally at the beginning of the fiscal year). This review will, in summary form, identify the Approved For Release 1999/09 01500R000200270002-2 Approved For Redse 1999/09/08: CIA-RDP80B0v -- 0R000200270002-2 status of current knowledge on the subject of each Key Intelli- gence Question, identify the important gaps, and the collection and production activities needed to fill the gaps. Its principal feature will be the acceptance of responsibility by appropriate individual intelligence agencies of the obligation to collect or produce on individual Key Intelligence Questions. Third, to provide the basis for a recapitulation and evalua- tion, after the close of the fiscal year, of the performance of the Intelligence Community and of individual agencies on each of the Key Intelligence Questions. Fourth, to enable experience with the Key Intelligence Questions process in the balance of FY 1974 to be used in preparation of questions for Community use in FY 1975. And fifth, to permit the use of conclusions drawn from the recapitulation and evaluation of the FY 1974 effort as factors in Community resource allocations, specifically including the preparation of the DCI's National Foreign Intelligence Budget Recommendations to the President in November 1974. 4. While the attached Key Intelligence Questions are issued for guidance during the balance of FY 1974, it is clear that a full response to some of the questions cannot be expected within this time frame. It should be possible, however, to measure and evaluate to a degree the extent of progress within the period remaining in the current fiscal year. 5. The considerations cited in the introductions to the individual geographic and topical sets of Key Intelligence Questions provide guidance for longer-term forward planning for collection and production, particularly for subjects involving RDT&E and associated long lead times. 6. No priority is implied by the order of listing of the various Key Intelligence Questions. Difference in priorities exists, but it is not considered that refinements in levels of priority are necessary for the Key Intelligence Questions effort. 7. The attached Key Intelligence Questions are subject to additions or modifications during FY 1974 if such are required by major changes in the international situation or in the foreign intelli- gence environment. 2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08? 80B01500R000200270002-2 Approved For Releae 1-9109/08 : CIA-RDP80B015Q 8000200270002-2 SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE The Soviet Union is the primary target of US intelligence efforts and can be expected to remain so because Soviet intentions and actions can so directly relate to the basic elements of US national security and to achievement of US foreign and economic policy objectives. With or without a viable detente, intelligence on the USSR will remain of continuing highest priority in the coming years. In both the near and long term, improvement in the capabilities of Soviet strategic and conventional forces is a matter of major concern to the United States. Inherent in this problem is the monitoring of Soviet compliance with SAL and MBFR agreements. This involves detailed coverage of weapons systems capabilities and close attention to the early phases of Soviet military RDT&E relating to strategic offensive and defensive weapons systems. Soviet political, economic and military contacts with the rest of the world are increasing the variety of topics on which high quality US intelligence is required. This puts a continuing priority on the need for intelligence, not only on Soviet military capabilities, but also on the dynamics of the Soviet political power structure, on factors influencing the Soviet leadership, on Soviet perceptions of the United States, and on the basic objectives of the USSR both at home and abroad. 25X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/ DP801301500R000200270002-2 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Next 2 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Rele a 1999/09 013015WR000200270002-2 SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS Actions and reactions between the USSR and the PRC could have such an important impact on US interests worldwide that particular intelligence effort needs to be directed to obtaining an awareness and understanding of what is going on between these two countries. The serious border dispute is long-standing and still seems far from solution, with a resultant threat of hostilities which calls for 25)cp inuing intelligence attention. 7 S Approved For Release 1999/09/0 P80BOl50OR000200270002-2 Approved For Ref'ftse 1999/ ~_P801301%OR000200270002-2 THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Recent improvements in the military capabilities of the PRC and the country's more outward-looking political stance have markedly increased the extent to which China's policies and actions can affect US security and policy interests. Both Mao's age and indications of considerable in-fighting among members of the governing elite make the character of the post-Mao leadership a matter of considerable importance. The Chinese may already have achieved an effective nuclear deterrent against the USSR and they are working toward a nuclear capability against the United States. The evolving PRC nuclear forces could result in major qualitative changes in China's strategic relationship with the Third World as well as With the two superpowers. The situation calls for close and continuing attention to PRC military 25NaPX ilities, particularly its nuclear delivery systems. 8 Approved For Release 1999/09/0?E 80B01500R000200270002-2 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For R^se 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B01+00R000200270002-2 ET MIDDLE EAST AND MOSLEM WORLD Current US interest in the Middle East and Moslem world focuses on obtaining an Arab-Israeli peace and restoring the flow of oil to non-communist countries. For both the short and longer term, achieve- ment of political and military stability in the area is of high priority importance to the United States. This means there must be continuing attention by US intelligence to information needed to support US efforts to assure continuing access to oil supplies, to increase US influence with the Arab states and to reduce vulnerabilities of the Moslem countries to Soviet and other anti-US influences. (See Economic 25%tXi2n for questions related to oil.) 10 Approved For Release 1999/09/0 01500R000200270002-2 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Rase 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B0` 0O R000200270002-2 ,GREY SOUTHEAST ASIA Ongoing or threatened insurgencies adverse to US interests in all Southeast Asia countries are, and probably will continue to be, the major focus of US intelligence in this area of the world. The situation is in flux throughout Southeast Asia and some level of armed hostilities with anti-US overtones can be expected to continue through- 2X A2least the next several years. Approved For Release 1999/09/08 B01500R000200270002-2 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Ree`a'se 1999/09/0 F80B0'F'i0R000200270002-2 LATIN AMERICA Improvement of US understanding of Latin American political dynamics and their impact on US objectives in the Western Hemisphere is of sufficient importance at policy levels of the US Government to call for careful intelligence attention. The emergence of increasingly nationalistic, highly personal governments which exhibit anti-US tendencies is the primary force working against US interests. Obtain- ing and analyzing the information needed to cope with this situation 2gw ' Ik_requi re a continuing intelligence effort. S Approved For Release 1999/09/08 80B01 500R000200270002-2 Approved For Releae I 999/0 P80B015WR000200270002-2 ECONOMICS Intelligence on economic developments affecting US national security and on the plans, policies and economic performance of major US economic competitors is rapidly increasing in importance to government policy makers. The acquisition and analysis of foreign economic information has become, and is expected to remain, a high priority task of US intelligence. 25X6A US dependence on the mineral resources of other countries, especially petroleum, is mounting. Incomes of oil-producing states are rising at an accelerated pace and some of these countries are exerting pressure on the United States and other countries by con- trolling oil supplies. The world demand for US grains and oilseeds has expanded. The Soviet Union is attempting to make up for defi- ciencies in its economy, and in so doing is seeking increased economic exchanges with the United States and other high-technology countries. Acquiring data on natural resource availability worldwide and on foreign technological developments of economic importance are expected to be tasks for the US intelligence community of increasing importance in 2ftlX@ing years. 15 Approved For Release 1999/09/ OB01500R000200270002-2 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Re ease 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80B0?ft0R000200270002-2 GENERAL, WORLDWIDE Some important problems for which intelligence inputs are required at policy levels of the government are either worldwide in scope or involve a number of countries in different areas of the world. Rather than repeat the Key Intelligence Questions for each country to which they apply, four questions of this nature are 25X1 X2rouped in this section. Approved For Release Q&rRDP80BO1 5X1X2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2 Approved For Release 1999/09/08 : CIA-RDP80BO150OR000200270002-2