KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1974

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01500R000200270002-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: November 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 1998
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: January 4, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTOR of CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
Key Intelligence Questions
For
Fiscal Year 1974
4 January 1974
DCI/IC 74-1215
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
Classified by 365211
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(2)
Automatically declassified on
Impossible to determine
(unless impossible, insert date or event)
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Key Intelligence Questions for FY 1974
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Page
Introduction ................................. 1
Soviet Union/Eastern Europe .................. 3
Sino-Soviet Relations ........................ 7
The People's Republic of China ............... 8
Middle East and Moslem World ................. 10
Southeast Asia ............................... 12
Latin America ................................ 14
Economics .................................... 15
General, Worldwide ........................... 18
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KEY INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONS
FOR FY 1974
INTRODUCTION
1. The attached compilation of Key Intelligence Questions for
Fiscal Year 1974 is issued as guidance to the Intelligence Community
for the collection and production of intelligence on subjects of major
importance to national-level intelligence consumers.
2. Two additional categories of intelligence collection and
production, not included in this priority national intelligence
guidance, are:
a. Lower priority national intelligence subjects: These
are deliberately omitted in order to highlight the priority which
attaches to the Key Intelligence Questions. It is recognized
that some attention must be devoted to lower priority subjects
(e.g., developments in Africa), although such subjects should,
to the extent possible, require less expensive and less difficult
collection techniques. The relative priorities of the broad
spectrum of intelligence topics are reflected in the compre-
hensive listing of U.S. foreign intelligence topics in the
Attachment to DCID 1/2 currently being considered by the USIB.
b. Departmental and tactical intelligence (including the
intelligence requirements of f he operational commanders, certain
warning and surveillance activities, etc.): It is clear that
some appropriate portion of the national intelligence effort
must be devoted to meeting these needs, and the National Foreign
Intelligence Budget Recommendations take account of this fact.
Continuing efforts will be made to improve the interaction and
mutual support of national and tactical programs so that each
may be served by the same activities to the maximum extent possible.
3. The attached Key Intelligence Questions are circulated for the
following purposes:
First, to insure that these subjects are given priority
in the regular collection and production activities of
appropriate elements of the Intelligence Community.
Second, to enable preparation of a baseline review (as soon
as feasible for FY 1974, but normally at the beginning of the
fiscal year). This review will, in summary form, identify the
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status of current knowledge on the subject of each Key Intelli-
gence Question, identify the important gaps, and the collection
and production activities needed to fill the gaps. Its principal
feature will be the acceptance of responsibility by appropriate
individual intelligence agencies of the obligation to collect or
produce on individual Key Intelligence Questions.
Third, to provide the basis for a recapitulation and evalua-
tion, after the close of the fiscal year, of the performance of
the Intelligence Community and of individual agencies on each of
the Key Intelligence Questions.
Fourth, to enable experience with the Key Intelligence
Questions process in the balance of FY 1974 to be used in
preparation of questions for Community use in FY 1975.
And fifth, to permit the use of conclusions drawn from the
recapitulation and evaluation of the FY 1974 effort as factors
in Community resource allocations, specifically including the
preparation of the DCI's National Foreign Intelligence Budget
Recommendations to the President in November 1974.
4. While the attached Key Intelligence Questions are issued for
guidance during the balance of FY 1974, it is clear that a full response
to some of the questions cannot be expected within this time frame. It
should be possible, however, to measure and evaluate to a degree the
extent of progress within the period remaining in the current fiscal
year.
5. The considerations cited in the introductions to the individual
geographic and topical sets of Key Intelligence Questions provide
guidance for longer-term forward planning for collection and production,
particularly for subjects involving RDT&E and associated long lead times.
6. No priority is implied by the order of listing of the various
Key Intelligence Questions. Difference in priorities exists, but it
is not considered that refinements in levels of priority are necessary
for the Key Intelligence Questions effort.
7. The attached Key Intelligence Questions are subject to
additions or modifications during FY 1974 if such are required by
major changes in the international situation or in the foreign intelli-
gence environment.
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SOVIET UNION/EASTERN EUROPE
The Soviet Union is the primary target of US intelligence
efforts and can be expected to remain so because Soviet intentions and
actions can so directly relate to the basic elements of US national
security and to achievement of US foreign and economic policy objectives.
With or without a viable detente, intelligence on the USSR will remain
of continuing highest priority in the coming years.
In both the near and long term, improvement in the capabilities
of Soviet strategic and conventional forces is a matter of major
concern to the United States. Inherent in this problem is the monitoring
of Soviet compliance with SAL and MBFR agreements. This involves detailed
coverage of weapons systems capabilities and close attention to the
early phases of Soviet military RDT&E relating to strategic offensive
and defensive weapons systems.
Soviet political, economic and military contacts with the rest
of the world are increasing the variety of topics on which high quality
US intelligence is required. This puts a continuing priority on the
need for intelligence, not only on Soviet military capabilities, but
also on the dynamics of the Soviet political power structure, on factors
influencing the Soviet leadership, on Soviet perceptions of the United
States, and on the basic objectives of the USSR both at home and abroad.
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SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS
Actions and reactions between the USSR and the PRC could have
such an important impact on US interests worldwide that particular
intelligence effort needs to be directed to obtaining an awareness
and understanding of what is going on between these two countries.
The serious border dispute is long-standing and still seems far from
solution, with a resultant threat of hostilities which calls for
25)cp inuing intelligence attention.
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THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
Recent improvements in the military capabilities of the PRC
and the country's more outward-looking political stance have markedly
increased the extent to which China's policies and actions can affect
US security and policy interests. Both Mao's age and indications of
considerable in-fighting among members of the governing elite make
the character of the post-Mao leadership a matter of considerable
importance.
The Chinese may already have achieved an effective nuclear
deterrent against the USSR and they are working toward a nuclear
capability against the United States. The evolving PRC nuclear
forces could result in major qualitative changes in China's strategic
relationship with the Third World as well as With the two superpowers.
The situation calls for close and continuing attention to PRC military
25NaPX ilities, particularly its nuclear delivery systems.
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ET
MIDDLE EAST AND MOSLEM WORLD
Current US interest in the Middle East and Moslem world focuses
on obtaining an Arab-Israeli peace and restoring the flow of oil to
non-communist countries. For both the short and longer term, achieve-
ment of political and military stability in the area is of high priority
importance to the United States. This means there must be continuing
attention by US intelligence to information needed to support US
efforts to assure continuing access to oil supplies, to increase US
influence with the Arab states and to reduce vulnerabilities of the
Moslem countries to Soviet and other anti-US influences. (See Economic
25%tXi2n for questions related to oil.)
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,GREY
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Ongoing or threatened insurgencies adverse to US interests in
all Southeast Asia countries are, and probably will continue to be,
the major focus of US intelligence in this area of the world. The
situation is in flux throughout Southeast Asia and some level of armed
hostilities with anti-US overtones can be expected to continue through-
2X A2least the next several years.
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LATIN AMERICA
Improvement of US understanding of Latin American political
dynamics and their impact on US objectives in the Western Hemisphere
is of sufficient importance at policy levels of the US Government to
call for careful intelligence attention. The emergence of increasingly
nationalistic, highly personal governments which exhibit anti-US
tendencies is the primary force working against US interests. Obtain-
ing and analyzing the information needed to cope with this situation
2gw ' Ik_requi re a continuing intelligence effort.
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ECONOMICS
Intelligence on economic developments affecting US national
security and on the plans, policies and economic performance of
major US economic competitors is rapidly increasing in importance
to government policy makers. The acquisition and analysis of foreign
economic information has become, and is expected to remain, a high
priority task of US intelligence.
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US dependence on the mineral resources of other countries,
especially petroleum, is mounting. Incomes of oil-producing states
are rising at an accelerated pace and some of these countries are
exerting pressure on the United States and other countries by con-
trolling oil supplies. The world demand for US grains and oilseeds
has expanded. The Soviet Union is attempting to make up for defi-
ciencies in its economy, and in so doing is seeking increased economic
exchanges with the United States and other high-technology countries.
Acquiring data on natural resource availability worldwide and on foreign
technological developments of economic importance are expected to be
tasks for the US intelligence community of increasing importance in
2ftlX@ing years.
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GENERAL, WORLDWIDE
Some important problems for which intelligence inputs are
required at policy levels of the government are either worldwide in
scope or involve a number of countries in different areas of the
world. Rather than repeat the Key Intelligence Questions for each
country to which they apply, four questions of this nature are
25X1 X2rouped in this section.
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