ACTION ITEMS FROM DISCUSSIONS ON 10 JUNE 1977

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP80B01554R003300080021-9
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RIPPUB
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T
Document Page Count: 
10
Document Creation Date: 
December 16, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 3, 2005
Sequence Number: 
21
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Publication Date: 
June 10, 1977
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MFR
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Approved For R& ase 20c1O1th : A-RDP80B01554RN3300080021-9 10 JUAN i9?7 MEMORANDUM.FOR THE RECORD SUBJECT: Action Items from Discussions on 10 June 1977 3. Joe Kraft had an article in the June 9th Washington Post about a "magneto-hydrodynamic" electrical power generating capability that the Soviets have and in which we are also involved. I would like to understand what this is, what its potential is, and what our participation is? 4. Dr. Brzezinski would like to know if we see any connection between the fact that we tested a nuclear power source for a satellite 25X1 in 1965 and the Soviets first did it in 1971. Did they get the idea from us? Approved For Release 200q11[.P80B01554R003300080021-9 Approved For Rj ase 20 /'R B I DP80BO1554W3300080021-9 25X1 6. Covered all topics on the agenda. Approved For Release 2005/01/13 : CIA-RDP8'OB01554R003300080021-9 g Approved For ReIaase 2005/01 /' Cf UA-RDP80B01554R0 300080021-9 June 10, 1977 Somalia-Ethiopia: Troubles in Ogaden I. The destruction on June 1 by Somali-supported insurgents of ,three bridges on the railroad linking Addis Ababa to Djibouti, the capital of the French Territory of the Afars and Issas, probably marks the beginning of increased Somali pressure on eastern Ethiopia. II. Siad has probably concluded that the time is opportune for regaining the Ogaden while Ethiopia's military capabilities are at their nadir and before Soviet support and Ethiopia's own mobilization efforts bring an improved military posture. III. The attack has notably increased tension between the two countries. The railroad is Ethiopia's principal rail link to the sea, and Addis Ababa believes the attack on this vital artery presages increased Somali activity in the Ogaden. Somalia's propaganda attacks against Ethiopia have become particularly virulent, and seem intended to provide a justification for an attempt to regain the Ogaden. IV. Ethiopia, despite its concern, is unlikely for now to attempt a military retaliation against Somalia. A. This cautious policy could change if the substantial amounts of military equipment from the Soviet Union, Approved For Release 2005/01 /1 c -RDP80B01554R003300080021-9 SECRET Approved For Rese 2005/01/13: CIA-RDP80B01554R@0300080021-9 East Europe, and Libya, and more aid--including modern Soviet tanks and MIG aircraft--has been promised. Addis Ababa is also proceeding with the rapid expansion of its regular and irregular forces, and has begun an offensive against insurgents in northern Ethiopia that, if successful, would free troops for use in the Ogaden. V. Siad, on the other hand, sees political survival as threatened if he failed to act and allowed Ethiopia to regain the initiative against the insurgents before it was too late. VI. Siad and other members of the ruling hierarchy would probably want to avoid the prospect of the insurgents' suffering defeat and being forced back across the border. The insurgents would probably turn a ainst_the,Mogadiscio Government if they felt it had abandoned them. VII. Increase in tensions have made more difficult Moscow's attempt to maintain good relations with both Ethiopia and Somalia. VIII. They may come under increased pressure to speed up arms deliveries to Ethiopia in response to the increased threat from Somalia. Approved For Release 2005/01/155c'e1A-RDP80B01554R003300080021-9 SECRET Approved For Re a 2005/01/13: CIA-RDP80B01554RO 00080021-9 IX. If there is a conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia, it is likely to be short and limited to the Ogaden and neighboring Somali territory. Neither side could be expected to sustain concentrated military activity by a large number of units for more than a few weeks; each would quickly begin to encounter supply and maintenance problems and shortages of petroleum products. -3- SECRET Approved For Release 2005/01/13 : CIA-RDP80BO1554R003300080021-9 Approved For Release 2005/01/13: CIA-RDP80B01554R906300080021-9 Major Ethiopian Combat Units Sea Red Nakamet " ~J * Debts Zeif Chinhauson R RR ,/+r'Nazarat -d.llM ~\ Infantry Armor Artillery battalion jillp battalion battalion company company company e!!d Mechanized battalion Airborne battalion Engineer battalion Motorized Infantry battalion Reconnaissance company Air defense company Mortar company ,~ Eritrea 1. . Ksreri~ KHARTOUM M R 7Ams"~ S U 'd a n ~`a - Makale ` dfl o Gander I?>blr . B -"~ T.3a's -via y, {.,OGore 3"k iiubabor Jima?T i4 Jr' Kaffa o:no AWN Arbil Minc0fft i` Gemu r ,Aaele Arusi rota \Sidarno Lake Rudoll Uganda Markoa1 _r thidpla [life Dawato flans , I is"v+), i t? q a -.f'AUDIS ABABA 0&---, J Kenya Airfield Naval base t / j 1~ '--'OADEN Ogaen o Kebri Dehar e lide .a __ G L' F.T. .I. Hararge \ i. Somalia IOGADISCIO 25X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/13 : CIA-RDP8'0B01554R003300080021-9 t'sotii t( YEMEN d T.-ioura DJIBOUTI ughaya T i uarawmna~ edereanek Burao _J srsa ar f g I~. N. Nt`agBanraearscia (Geroey , law oddllr' ---,`~ figleglo` Ue it Buis Burti KENYA Ganana,{ Garbs Harra /Baidoa Uanla Uan 3ardera Infantry DIV. A( division Artillery Mechanized 51regiment battalion l - . battalion company Naval base battalion ".l?s battalion 4 Airfield Air Defense 4130 Motorized Infantry battalion Airborne battalion Mortar battalion m Engineer battalion R Reconnaissance company SAM sits aJ Mortar company 621622 517 CIA Approved For Release 2005/01/13: CIA-RDP80,B01554R003300080021-9 Approved For Rgpase 2005/01/13 : CIA-RDP80BO1554RJW3300080021-P - One hour "Open House" in your office after each Morning Meeting. - Presidential items. - Use of office downtown. - Administrative flexibility. Don't hold up for observed compliance with format. 014 1977 5X1 Approved For Release 2005/01/13 : CIA-RDP80BO1554R003300080021-9 Approved For Releee 200510'3 :' 1'D 01554R0Q00080021-9 DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL ITEM ON IMPACT OF THE 200-MILE FISHING CLAIM ON THE SOVIET, JAPANESE AND KOREAN FISHING INDUSTRY 1. We talked before about the problems for nations with large fishing industries and/or heavy reliance on the protein from fish for their national diet of the extension of maritime zones to 200 miles. Forty-four countries have claimed such zones, twenty of them since the beginning of this year and more are expected to declare them before the year is over. The attached chart brings this out clearly and it also points out that since nearly all the world's prime fishing grounds are within 200 miles of land that only in the southern hemisphere, and particularly the south Pacific, there is not much opportunity for expansion. When the Australian Foreign Minister was here, I noticed that heJcommented on expanding Soviet fishing activity in the south Pacific and the graphic illustration certainly shows why. 2. The Soviets, the Japanese and the South Koreans have been taking different methods to offset this impact on their fishing. a. The Soviets first declared their own 200-mile zone on the first of March of this year and will conserve the catch in their own waters more for themselves. They have, for instance, reduced the Japanese catch by 50% and the South Korean catch by 100%. b. They are also continuing a program they have had in effect for many years of extending fisheries aid to the lesser developed countries. Over the last 15 years they've given aid to 33 developing countries totaling over $230 million dollars. The Asians have countered to help the development of local fishing industries but the repayment is generally in the form of goods and services to the Soviets' own fishing fleet operating in the area. c. The next and most recent Soviet move starting in about 1971 was the conclusion of joint venture fishing agreements with 18 developing countries with another nine currently in negotiations. In this case, the Soviets take a 49% interest in the fishing venture and thus have a voice in the local fishing operations that guarantees them some measure of fishing rights in the territorial waters of these countries. The countries are shown on the next map of the world, the 25X1 Approved For Releas[ 1 L P80BO1554R003300080021-9 Approved For Rel .se 2005/01/13'?:1A-RDP80B01554RW300080021-9 salmon-colored countries being those which have received aid, the dotted countries those in which there are joint ventures today, and the hatched ones in which there are negotiations for joint ventures. Attached also is a list of the specific countries who participated in the aid and joint ventures programs. It is noteworthy that almost half of the Soviet investment is in Africa, and nearly 40% of that in Somalia. The other large recipients of aid are Iraq, Egypt, South Yeman, Bangladesh, and Chile. (1) There are some of us who are suspicious enough to believe that the Soviets have more than protein in mind and are looking for a foot in the door for further ventures by way of the use of military base facilities, the military aid program, and political penetration. This was certainly the sequence that was followed in Somalia between the early 1970's and today. 3. The Japanese are responding in a similar way. They expect to declare their 200-mile fishing zone later this year. They've also lost a $700 million seven-year program to increase the yields of fishing in Japanese coastal waters. a. They've established 200 joint fishing companies in 51 countries, with the greatest number in Asia and Oceana, and the bulk of the remainder in Africa and Latin America. b. Thirty of these companies are jointly owned with United States interests. 4. South Korea has signed fishing agreements with 19 Asian and Latin American lesser developed countries, one of which has helped Koreans by paying licensing fees to fish in these countries' waters. a. South Koreans have also provided government support for an agreement under' which 30 United States fishing vessels will catch 130,000 tons of fish and deliver them to the South Korean processing ship stationed just outside our claimed 200-mile limit. The intent is to avoid U.S. quotas. Whether this unusual procedure will hold up or not remains to be seen. Approved For Release 2005/01/i3 CIS 2 Pa8raBt 1554R003300080021-9