DCI Memo to SA/DCI Concerning (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01554R003400010006-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 23, 2006
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: January 30, 1978
• Content Type: MF

Approved For' elease 2006/11/13 CIA-RDP80BO1554W03400010006-2
80 JAN 197
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FROM:
SUBJECT:
SA/DCI
Director of Central Intelligence
1. I'd like to get Il involved in reviewing the seminal
work that we have done this year in NIE 11-3/8. As you know, I think
we have made some substantial progress here. I am now concerned with
two things:
a. That I not become overly enamored of this work and
try to sell it for more than it is worth. There's no one
I know better than 0 to deflate me when I'm running
off halfcocked!
b. I'm most interested in vigorously continuing this
work. Specifically, I'm looking for sensitivity checks to
tell where changes in various assumptions such as CEP might
markedly alter the results; and how the Soviets might look
at and develop such charts if they were working the problem.
2. Would you ask L---Jwhen he is next in town to get together
with you and Howie Sto ee if he could take an outside objective
look at the work and give us suggestions on how to improve what we have
done and how best to proceed from here to make it even more useful.
Beyond that, I would also like to ask you to have him talk
to In my presentations to the Congress last week, I
followed the presentation on NIE 11-3/8 with one on the balance of
conventional/tactical nuclear forces in Central Europe. The contrast
between the meat in the strategic analysis and the pabulum in the
conventional one was very apparent. Clearly, strategic warfare is
much more amenable to precise calculation. Still, I would hope that
E2 IMPDET
Approved For Release 2006/11/13 : CIA-RDP80B01554R00340001%A12DCI
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we could find a way to analyze the comparative ground and tactical
air strength in Central Europe that would be more analogous to what
Wplyp e with the inter-continental strategic forces. I'd appreciate
fertile imagination being applied to this one also.
cc.: NIO/Strategic Programs
NIO/Conventional Forces
Approved For Release ..2006/11/13.: CIA-RDP80BOl554R003400010006-2