(Sanitized) OBSERVATIONS ON THE SOVIET LEADERSHIP

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000400190033-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2004
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: January 20, 1966
• Content Type: MF

E -ec'.1live YUgisiIy
Approved For Release 2004/SEOe j DP80B01676 0040019003 -4 : _`~-7 ,
NSC REVIEW
;COMPLETED.
2 b JAN' 1953
Professor Taaurer' o nervations
an the Soviet Leadership
your note of 7 January setting forth
Taurer's observations on the bevi of
iv. noted they Increased importance accorded
ist "president" within the context of
tip. go long an the collective last*,
robably continue. lowever, Poegorny,
reason to believe, in no longer funct oning
ariat, although this has not been revealed
a say that Padgoraay has, in effect, been kicked
we, along with most other observers, are
the Party are severely reduced. It is for this
and his opportunities for building a following
. Re has thus been removed from the k power
point out that the removal of elepiu from
his errs nt poets (chairs of the party-State Control
C* t mad deputy chairman of the council of Mirister )
other thi to say, however, that be was "formal
this to to make the assumption that elepin
Sere we agree with professor carer in
elepi n remains a stro figure in the i
his loss of official standing in the
his being put in charge of the oviet
e tion wbich has just visited S*noi.
Approved For Release 2004/07 tWP80B01676R000400190033-4
*atter of interpretation but a point of fact. It
 P 1) 4MAQ,8 .' CIA-RDP80B01676J00400190033-4
present situation is that Shelepin
*to an his Party position, which evidently
roved by Pod orny' a removal from ;the Secretariat.
in difficult to accept the proposition that Shelepin
are now on equal terms in cospeting for secondary
hind Drezhaev. We would concede, of course, that
;bar, took over as chairman of the
commission which thrushchev set up to draft a
o titution. Almost nothing has been 'heard Of
emission or its work since. Some formal
*area may be made if and when a new constitution
it we do not believe these would affect the
roduction to Boris Sicolaevek 's book, Power
Approved For Release
sure you;W ld find Kennan`s introduction alone
ill worth while and an therefore taking the liberty of sending
along a copy of the book.
th *#%w4 a+ w1 $ -abliah?t hy Prederick eger laB
present positions can by no means be coasiderea
ingful institutional ch*ngos in the i R in
addressed himself recently to the problem
'.tical power in the V8SR.
F, r
r. Y. born
Director
Attachment
O/DDI ; fbr (17
Distri u ion:
Original and 1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
1 -
January 1966)
Addressee w/att
Executive Registry w/basic
DCI's Official Chrono
O/DDI Chrono
Exec Chrono
D/OCI
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 :.4A-RDP80B01676R000400190033-4
SECRET
 Approved For Wease! 2b04/07%9 CIA-RDP80BOl674&00400190033-4
January 7, 1966
MEMORANDUM
For: Director of Central Intelligence
irn
For the past 15 years I have received from time to
time, thoughtful analyses concerning developments in the Soviet
Union from a former professor of political science at Bennington
College in Vermont by the name of Dr. Bernard Taurer.
Professor Taurer is an acknowledged student of
Soviet institutions and personalities. I recall that at one time,
just prior to the assassination of Beria, he predicted that this would
happen. This is only one of several accurate observations and.
predictions that he has made over the past few years relating to
Soviet political personalities and. developments.
A recent memorandum from Bernard Taurer takes
issue with the newspaper reports that Podgorny was "kicked upstairs"
when he was made President of the Soviet Union and, therefore, is
no longer a factor to be considered. He similarly takes issue with
the interpretation of new developments and the quick conclusion
arrived at by the press that Shelepin was "formally ousted from his
post in the Government" and, therefore, might have suffered a loss
of power.
In effect, Taurer believes that Podgorny and Shelepin
both have strong positions in the Government and in the Secretariat.
The competition between Pod.gorny and Shelepin for secondary
leadership behind Brezhnev still remains and. is even more real
than ever before. Taurer does not believe that Kosygin is in any
position of real leadership or decision-making power compared to
Brezhnev.
Approved For Release 2004/07/08': CIA-Ft 80B01676R000400190033-4
 Approved ForRlease 2004/. t Cl7~ IP8OBO1 67 J00400190033-4
Memorandum for the Director of Central Intelligence
Page Two. January 7, 1966
It would appear as if there are important constitutional
developments taking place within the Soviet Union designed to
strengthen the institutional, as distinguished from the personal
factors within that society. The institution of the presidency may
very well be developing as a role of increased importance, but
only within the context of collective leadership. In some ways
Taurer thinks we are seeing the development in its own way of a
two-party or multi-party system within the Soviet Union designed
to provide choices between dimly perceived alternatives within
the society. It is a form of controlled. polarization into political
groupings based on differing functional and positional interests. In
this area various ideological tenets are becoming increasingly sub-
ordinated to considerations of a non-violent power struggle and
career possibilities.
l
Approved For Release /ql~,Q, IA-RDP80B01676R000400190033-4
 S E LL CHQQII~ I I C"ION TOP AND BOTTOM
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
Executive Director
2
3
DDCI
4
5
DCI
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks :
Attached for the Director's
signature is a response to a Vice
Presidential memorandum of 7
January, per Mr. Knoche's instructions
of 14 January. The book is to be
forwarded with the Director's reply.
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
DDI Ce 7E32
17 Jan
pro
eaLtNVAKqNPDMZUq4/Ul/UVoiQIRJMI)Bq
FORM N0. n37 Use previous editions (40)
2_61 L / U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1961 0-587ZBZ
 ~
C I ..~ 1940019
UNCLASSIFIED
CODENTIAI, SECRET
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
TO
NAME AND ADDRESS
DATE
INITIALS
1
DD/I
2
3
4
5
6
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
PREPARE REPLY
APPROVAL
DISPATCH
RECOMMENDATION
COMMENT
FILE
RETURN
CONCURRENCE
INFORMATION
SIGNATURE
Remarks :
For preparation of comments for the Vice
President in a memorandum for DCI
signature.
K
S U S P CC N S e '_ C \ o i~ of "5 -S f=1%J
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
FROM: NAME, ADDRESS AND PHONE NO.
DATE
O/Executive Director /HKnoche
14 Jan 66
LA CONFIDENTIAL
SECRET
Ap
0033-4
FORM 10 237 Use previous editions (40)
* U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1961 0-587282