LETTER TO HONORABLE ALLEN W. DULLES FROM HUGH S. CUMMING, JR.

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000900080011-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 11
• Content Type: LETTER

C 3.
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DEPARTMENT OF STATE
THE DIRECTOR OF IM.TELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH
WASHINGTON
The Disarmament Administration is currently undertaking
a review of our policy respecting nuclear test negotiations.
This review would be immeasurably aided if a special national
intelligence estimate dealing with the effects of a United States
resumption of nuclear testing could be prepared by early January.
Suggested terms of reference for such an estimate are
enclosed. In view of the requirement for an early completion
of the policy review concerning nuclear testing, it would be
greatly appreciated if you could schedule the proposed estimate
for USIB consideration on January 10th.
Sincerely yours,
Hugh S. Cumming, Jr.
Suggested terms of reference
The Honorable
Allen W. Dulles,
Director of Central Intelligence.
State Department review completed
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Suggested Terms of Reference
The Effect of a Renewal of Nuclear Explosions by the United States
on the Attitudes and Policies of Other Countries
For purposes of this pro posed estimate, it is assumed that the
United States has begun the testing of nuclear devices for the
announced purposes either of weapons development and the study of
weapons effects or of improvement of detection techniques, and may
also have initiated use of nuclear explosions for peaceful purposes.
It is further assumed that all explosions are conducted in such a
way as to minimize fall-out and other known health hazards.
The estimate should consider the impact of such U.S. action
on popular and governmental opinion and the degree to which various
possible U.S. public information policies might affect these reactions=.
The estimate should further take up the policies and courses
of action that various major countries or groupings of countries
might undertake as a result of the United States action.
How and to what extent would the United States action affect
future arms control negotiations, including those on a nuclear
test ban and other nuclear control measures?
What effect would the United States action have on free world
countries' decisions regarding the initiation of independent nuclear
weapons programs?
What would be the Soviet reaction? How would they assess
United States motivations in resuming tests? Would they resume test-
ing and, if so, for what probable objectives? Would they be likely
to test in the atmosphere? what would be the effect on the Chinese
Communist nuclear weapons program and on Soviet policy respecting
this Chinese Communist program?
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 ILLEGIB
FORM N0. Replaces Form 30-4 (40)
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Dulles: General Cabell:
A copy of this letter and enclosure has
already been sent to Bob Amory for necessary
FORM NO. 101 RWHICHCMAY FORM
USED' 10-01
I AUG 54
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