LETTER TO HONORABLE HUGH S. CUMMING, JR. FROM (Sanitized)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R000900080024-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2003
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: November 7, 1960
• Content Type: LETTER

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1 - ER via Reading
State Department review completed
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As you recall, when you looked over the attached report, ytu
wanted to know what offices in the Agency had received this
particular estimate. For your information, it was distributed
as follows:
1 copy OCR Library
1 copy OBI
4 copies ORR
1 copy DDI/SRS
4 copies ONE
1 copy
1 copy
1 copy
6 copies DD/P
2 copies OAR
5 copies OCI
27 copies Total
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15 November 1960
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Uia
I would like to call your attention to the attached
brief Intelligence Estimate No. 100 on "Second-Stage
Nationalism," which was prepared by my Estimates
Group. It provides, I think, some perceptive insights
into the causes and manifestations of a variety of present
day nationalistic phenomena, including particularly the
post-liberation nationalism of the "nation in a hurry."
I hope you will find it useful.
Sincerely,
L
Hugh S. Cumming, Jr.
The Honorable
Allen W. Dulles,
Director of Central Intelligence,
Washington.
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Intelligence Report
No. 100
BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE
AND RESEARCH
Prepared by the Estimates Group
Approved by
The Director of Intelligence and esearch
26 October, 1960
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SECOND-STAGE NATIONALS *
1. Nationalism can be defined in terms as simple as sheer patriotism , aad
again In terms so all-embracing as to constitute a whole philosophy of life. There
is ample reason for this confusion. Nationalism is actually complex and compre-
hensive, yet at times it may be dominated by some one of its component themes to
such an extent that the complex seems unified and simple. Nationalism has in the
last century and a half focused primarily upon the nation-state, yet its essential
elements have been effective throughout history, and they manifest themselves at
all times in many contexts other than those of nation or state, and in just about all
stages of political development. We are becoming aware, also, that the nation--
state itself is no uniform thing, and we see that states In different situations ails1
contexts will arouse different emphases and combinations of elements within thf=
protean compass of nationalism. An understanding of this matter therefore rewires
the drawing of distinctions and an examination of times and places.
2. To start, however, with a generality, let us attempt one basic definition.
Nationalism is to be regarded as essentially a force -- a social drive that mayt oe
thought of as a common popular feeling or stimulus to action, centered on concepts
of the nature and purpose of the social group. peep impulses underlie this feel%ng,
notably the disposition of the individual to identify himself with the group; these
impulses attach themselves to a wide variety of symbols, such as cultural, or
linguistic distinctiveness, or perhaps a particular religious doctrine. We can,
however, establish the limitation that in the modern world this social group wil'
typically be the nation -- a group, united by a variety of bonds, that is of a size
and quality suited to embodiment as a defensible sovereign state -- and the mat-i
stimulating symbols will center upon sovereign statehood itself.
3. It is this combination of scope and association with nation and state that
is distinctive. If we look at the components of nationalism we find that its contc;nt
is no more than a compound of feelings and motives familiarly observable in mussy
other relationships. Hatred of foreigners, for example, cannot as a feeling be
distinguished from antagonisms that frequently prevail between sections or localities
of a single country. Racial antagonism, an integral theme of nationalism in Httlerite
Germany, is looked upon as mere localized prejudice when it shows up amongst the
Teddy Boys and Jamaican immigrants of Notting Hill, London. Suspicion of rich
capitalists nourishes the newly inflamed nationalism of Cuba, to mention only one
such outcropping, but it may be found also in the attitude of many a U.S. country
village toward city slickers. We need hardly illustrate the incidence of snobbish
convictions of superiority to others or the humble search for security in numbe_: s,
of appetites for aggrandizement or willingness to make great sacrifices for an ideal
all these qualities characterize nationalism as well as other aspects of social We.
Clearly, then,
* See also forthcoming Intelligence Estimate No. 101 for an analysis of second
stage nationalism in Indonesia and Cambodia.
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Clearly, then, we are examining human motives and drives which appear
separately or diversely combined in many areas of action, and which become
nationalism by virtue of being displayed on a national scale -- or, more precisely,
when aroused by concerns of a national group,
4. The association with the nation-state distinguishes this complex of
feelings in yet another way, by fostering an unprecedented scope and intensity in
the forces involved. As states modernize, reasonably uniform education extends
to remote settlements of the people and inculcates common social symbols, ideals,
and traditions, so that the nationalist appeals elicit increasingly wide and ready
response. Media like the press, and more recently the radio and television, lend
themselves to long-term training or whirlwind campaigns of excitation. In one
generation, Germany, Italy, Russia, and China have shown how the modern state
can develop a forced-draft leadership group, a Party, which draws out from the
population the elements most suited to the regime's purpose and strenuously in-
doctrinates them with a master-theme of nationalism. In effect,the state can
distill, centralize, and intensify the nationalist forces that permeate the population
as a whole. So it is that while the national group arouses nationalism in simple
terms, the organization of the group into a state produces the further intensification
of this force that is so characteristic of modern history --and that may in return be
a necessary condition for the effectiveness of the modern state itself.
5. Indeed, it cannot be by chance that the self-conscious nationalism with
which we are familiar came into the view of history at just the time that the nation-
state was being forged. One small paragraph can do no more than point out that
modern nationalism traces back to the age when the French Revolution opened to
men's minds new ideals toward which society could aim, while it showed them on
a more practical basis the tremendous actions which the state could actually perform.
It was, at the same time, the age when:the industrial revolution tore men from
accustomed traditions and set them loose in search of a new association, when the
writings of Rosseau, the German philologists and romanticists, as well as many
other. elements came together to form a framework of thought and a mystique which
shaped social. pressures into nationalism --'a force which sought to realize its
objectives In and through the state.
6. At the same time, the concerns of national groups or states differ; in
varying situations and circumstances the concept of the nation will be associated
with different specific goals. During a war the concern of the nation and its members
is defense or conquest. Before liberation of one group from domination by another,
the concern is independence. In fact, these two sets of situations and responses
are the ones which the concept of nationalism instantly brings to mind as typical.
We are now, however, becoming interested in what happens during peace-time and
after liberation, for It appears that an established peaceful sovereign state may
generate new goals which distinctively re-shape the nationalist drive. The im-
plementing of independence will center about goals of status and perhaps -unity for
the nation, and these goals stir responses which differ Importantly from the feelings
aroused in a struggle for independence or for existence.
7. The nationalism
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7. The nationalism of liberation focuses essentially on winning state-hood,
on making a state -- in short, to an important degree on the externalized goal of
creating an institution. In the complex of feelings which stirs people to drive
toward the goal of liberation, the predominating tone is set by the positive ides-I
of loyalty -- selflessness to the point of sacrifice -- and by the negative but
reasonably simple stimulus of antagonism to the oppressor. Status, on the other
hand, and the sense of unison with one's kind are goals of far more subjective
character, liable to diverse Interpretation and very personal fulfillment. Wounded
feelings, inferiorities, frustrations, and similar complex factors are of course at
work In the process of liberation, but they will assume greater importance in a group
that is pressing for status, and especially so when the group finds itself disappointed
In the expectation that status will automatically accompany Independence. As
emphasis increases on motivations of this sort, we need not be surprised to fl-id
a nationalism of more varied content, less definite, more confusing,
0. The temptation is great to regard these forms of nationalism as
chronologically successive, and to identify them as stage one and stage two in
a sequence that nation-states should normally be expected to follow. Manifestly,
the nation must be independent before it can begin to compete for status with other
sovereign states. A freedom movement may have problems of cohesion and irternai
unity, but any problems of this sort will grow far more Intense after the movement
has gained its freedom and formed a state. On the other hand, there is the curious
fact that a lull of considerable length may intervene between liberation and the quest,
for status -- or at least it used to be so. Many countries have for long periods
happily remained in the second class (or lower) of international standing; them
intoxication with status may develop long after they acquire independence. Cuba
is a case in point. Italian fascism and its preoccupation with status followed a
long period of comparative benignity. With this-caution it Is nonetheless convonient
to identify what we are ta:iking about as "second-stage nationalism" -- the nationalism
that follows the stage of liberation and is associated with the implementing of national
independence.
9. Indeed, there may well be other "stages," equally susceptible to intr-
pretation as a sequence, What .are the goals of a nation that has achieved, or is
achieving, the Internal criteria of status -- that has built up its economic pror uctio=_ ,
its standard of living, its population in both numbers and proficiency, to the point o-
gaining recognition recognition as a respectable power? If it has not already done so on the war-,
will it not begin, to set itself goals in what could be called the external criteria of
international status -- geographic expansion, alliances, extension of influence.,
even to the point of military adventurism ? And will these goals not Imply new tones
of nationalism, with dominating notes of racial or cultural superiority, manifest
destiny, obligation toward groups of fellow nationals which have not yet been Erough
within the sacred frontier of the state? The USSR, complicated though its actions
are by the ramifications of a universal ideology, is doubtless best fitted of present
countries to illustrate the traits of a nation that is feeling its oats.
10. By the same
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10. By the same token, goals may shift again for the state that has passed
thrdugh the experience of making itself a power to be reckoned with, that has
convinced itself and others of its established status. Perhaps yet another form
of nationalism will come to be identified in a nation that, after a strenuous past,
find itself at last hemmed in, confronted by challenges which It does not wish to
or cannot overcome. That nation's goals will tend to shift toward conservation
rather than growth, sliding around obstacles rather than overcoming them,
preferring domestic consumption to external action. The nationalism of this
country will be muffled, sounding vague themes of sorrowful pride rather than
notes of sharp and aggressive confidence.
11. Again, however, a word of caution. It is far from our purpose to set
forth a pat sequence, still less to suggest a cyclical rise and fall of the state.
There may, as already pointed out, be gaps or lulls between stages. Numerous
Latin American countries seem to have had longer or shorter periods of sleep
after the initial impulse of liberation. In Cuba, perhaps also Guatemala, a fresh
display of radical nationalism occurred not in consequence of newly won Indepen-
dence, but in association with situations which variously combined liberation from
indigenous tyranny with the outbreak of social revolution. The Italian plunge into
extremes of fascist nationalism came sixty years after liberation, amid a combination
of :military embarrassment, post-war social confusion, and economic distress.
Naaism similarly gained power after long years of lost status and in the wreckage
of the Great Depression. The evidence is mixed, but the element of loss of face
and narrowing opportunity seems to be a common denominator in the European
experience of this concentrated nationalism. On the other hand, it appears that
the reverse situation may also reinvigorate nationalist drives, and it may be
found that outbursts of these impulses are in part stirred by the realization of
new opportunity after a period of stagnation, Meiji Japan and extremist pre-War
Japan may perhaps be seen in this light. The problem of causation, however,
opens a new, vast subject. Let it suffice that primitive states like Guinea,
underdeveloped states like Egypt, and elderly states like France may suddenly
shift among these forms of nationalist expression, or repeat them, In ways that
warn us against taking too seriously any fixed and logical sequence. Nonetheless,
it remains convenient to speak at least of first-stage and second-stage nationalism,
if only to distinguish the latter and allow us to address ourselves to it.
12. second-stage nationalism, then, is that social drive or force that is
aroused by concepts of national status and national unity. It is the response to
goals set by a nation in a hurry. And it quite naturally at the same time reflects
the ethos of its day, In extreme form it conveniently reveals itself for examination
in Guinea, a-new and primitive state, and in Cuba, a Western society which has
been self-determining for two generations. 'There are many less agitated
illastrations, like India, which will repay examination. From what may be
called the pathological extremes, it is possible to sketch a group of characteristics
which, In combinations of varying emphasis and intensity, can In general be
considered to represent second-stage nationalism.
13.. One conspicuous
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13. One conspicuous trait will be a competitive antagonism. Uhile much
may be said about cooperation and unity in the areas of newly liberated state e,
these-countries are, in the end, jostling for position, and can hardly escape
rivalries and jealousies in the process. Overlaps of ethnic groups between states
and the disintegrating trends that often follow a national effort for liberation or the
removal of a colonial strait jacket, facilitate the generating of feuds and bickeriw3.
Concentration of antagonisms against the metropole quickly gives way to greater
diversity of targets; hard feelings will usually turn against at least one neighbor,
and may, indeed, be so diverted as almost to exculpate the original colonial power
though the generalized antipathy to colonialism will not change.
14. An authoritarian tone not only reflects the culture and tradition of
many areas, but naturally suits their concept of a young nation with much to do.
Many societies regard democracy as a clumsy mechanism, hard to work by a
people not well accustomed to it, and one which has lost the unique prestige I
enjoyed before the World Wars. Colonial territories will often emerge from the
effort at liberation with some well-established leader, whose repute and pos#rion
encourage the growth of personalism. In some degree, doubtless, some strongly
centripetal force is required for the sheer survival of an untried nation. Certainly
the sense of unexpected, overwhelming problems, the frustrations likely to flow
from them, and the general insecurity felt by peoples who are being swept akng
in a period of radical change, all work to focus aspirations for progress and unity
about some outstanding personality, whose autocratic power comforts the public,
satisfies its sense of how government should work, and often is in accord with
traditional leadership concepts.
15. This is not to say that emerging colonies or other growing nations Hill
throw away all democratic institutions or will fail to develop some of their own,
albeit in often novel forms. Nor is it to be thought that any such forms are
negligible as present restraints or promises for the future. But the balance
between representative and autocratic institutions will in many cases incline to
favor the latter. In any case, each country will make its own selection and balance
and it will be a point of national pride to imitate slavishly none of the prevailing
patterns, but to blend bits and pieces of several with indigenous inventions.
16. Under the need to stress unity and discipline, radical regimes may well
display elements common to totalitarian fascist and communist organization. They
may promote the single party, whereby leader and people progress together in
freedom from the impediments of political debate or criticism that could only be
carping! As a corollary there will be trends toward mass movement, with
reminiscences of Nuremberg rallies or Russian and Chinese official campaigrs
of propaganda and huge, planned, "spontaneous" demonstrations, Behind insttu-
tions of this sort, which intensify authoritarianism, He not only purposeful political
exploitation, but also the sense of vulnerability, of defencelessness in confrontation
with great powers, and perhaps also of internal susceptibility to divisive pulls by
the protagonists of the cold war. Authoritarian institutions thus reflect a search
for social unison, an urge to mass participation, which are common elements of
second-stage nationalism a
17. By the same
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17. By the same tolcen, this nationalism comprises a vigorous belief in
state planning and action in all spheres, with especial emphasis upon social
welfare and economics. The picture of communism as it is generally accepted
will in these fields be attractive and explicit to a generation of new leaders
heavily influenced through education by lilarxian social and economic thought.
The desire to build up the state, the sense of need to accomplish big things, will
combine with the notion that state action is the proper mode of action, to make
of these principles a strongly desired pattern.
1.8, 'The counterpart of this trend will appear in suspicion of private
enterp~rrise, especially Western economic enterprise. Throughout the colonial
areas; it was common understanding that local poverty traced to exploitation by
the business interests of the colonial power - and in respect of these views Latin
America counts as a colonial area. There is a more or less explicit, apprehension
of the dictum about trade and the flag, but in tie sense that either one will follow
the other. Private enterprise has domestically the connotation of economic
inequ2iity, externally that of foreign intrusion, and on both counts it touches a
vigorous negative chord in second-stage! nationalism.
19. This negative quality spreads naturally to the field of international
diplomacy, where it manifests itself as neutralism. New, countries have not
gained their personality only to subordinate it at once ~to some protector. In a
polarized world, furthermore, to adopt an independent: bargaining position as instinctively to new weak countries as eating does to a day-old chick. The great
issues will be settled without their help; their duty is to milk the situation for any-
thing they can get, especially in the way of arms, to bolster what individuality
they have. Surely few impulses can be more solidly Imbedded in the complex of
feelings which urges a national group forward in the lmpicmen ation of its
indep?ndence.
20. Thus many strains appear among the elements of second-stage
nationalism. Socialism, communism, fascism, democracy, authoritarianism,
and neutralism -- In one way or another, these and other familiar motifs combine
in the expression of this force, There will, of course, be found many features
of the older, or first-stage, nationalistic pattern, notably pressures to revivify
indigenous cultures, accompanied inevitably by pressures to overcome the
resulting danger that the state will shatter into fragments; there will be religious
revivals, and high idealistic strivings. Each country, moreover, will differ,
each will mix in some. quantity of its own indigenous elements.. Much will depend
on the openness of the situation, on the extent to.wbichrevolutionary impulse is
weakening the hold of tradition as a delaying factor. Few new and underdeveloped
countries will be found which do not display at least traces.of all these elements.
State - N) Wash. , De C D.C.
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