LETTER TO ROBERT B. ANDERSON FROM ALLEN W. DULLES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R001100130072-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2008
• Sequence Number: 72
• Publication Date: April 22, 1959
• Content Type: LETTER

Approved For Release 2008/05/27: CIA-RDP80B01676R001100130072-9
/i-.3 3k 5 -__
2 2 APR 1959
ON-FILE TREASURY RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS
APPLY
The Honorable Robert E. Anderson.`
The Secretary of the Treasury
7ashin2ton 5.),
9, your call of Monday concerning our views
on the validity of Soviet economic statistics, I had one of my
people, prepare the attached summary report on this subject.
I hope this report meets your needs; it you wish, we
can ar pify it in considerable detail.
i icereiy,
SIGNED
ector
closure: The Validity of Soviet economic
~tatistics
Distribution
0 & 1 - Addressee
L-2 - DCI
1 - DDCI
2 - DD/I
2 - AD/RR
1 - Ch/E
1 - D/A
Deputy Director I t lligence
(17 April 1959)
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 Approved For Release 2008/05/27: CIA-RDP80B01676RO01100130072-9
. The Validity of Soviet LcoflOn is statistics
.fdity of Soviet economic statistics has been the
subject of continig ezasnina-tiony Western acooornists. In
un b
e academic world and in the intelligence community. There
rat agreement that the more highly aggregated Soviet
tatistice, such as gross industrial production and national
income, differ from western measures of Soviet achievements
in economic concept and statistical. procedure, and can be quite
=niale&ding.
the other hand, there is general agreement that Soviet
physical production data for individual commodities are essentially
reliable and are directly comparable with US data, once definitional
differences are reconciled. It is primarily these commodity data
which form. the basis of the intelligence community's estimates
of econor .ic strength.
Deliberate, centrally-directed. falsification of Soviet
plans and achievements to deceive the domestic pcpu-
lation or foreign observers can confidently be ruled out. The
possibility of Soviet planners using a double set of books throughout
economy is inconceivable in terms of the sheer magnitude of
the. task involved in such an operation. Furthermore # the possi-
bility of practicing this type of deception on the national level alone
can be rated out by consistency checks which indicate conformity
among the data reported at individual plant, regional, and national
levels.
e convincing still is the body of data accvtzuulated since
World War U which repeatedly reveals a close conformity between
published Soviet data and secret operational data, both in planning
documents and achievement reports. This evidence covers all
levels of activity, from the classic cast of the secret 1941 annual
economic plan captured by the Germaa during -World War U
which agreed with all the data that appeared in the published
veroJO& of the plan, to numerous examples of published data on
the performance of individual industrial plants which agree with
actual plant reports
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Another type of Soviet official statistics pertaixwto
investment activities in which Soviet current ruble figures are
used. A cross-check on the validity of these figures is obtained
thrr)ugh construction of Soviet national accounts. These studies
include a capital account in which funds designated for investment
are balanced by independently derived official sources of
financing. In su m&ry$ while GIP, uses many 3oviet official
statistics? an into-istve and continuing effort to cross check
these is going on using every possible type of source.
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