THE SOVIET ATOMIC ENERGY PROGRAM-NIE 11-2-59 (C)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R001200090027-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2005
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: June 11, 1959
• Content Type: MF

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HEADQUARTERS V
DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
OFFICE OF THE ASSISTANT CHIEF OF STAFF FOR INTELLIGENCE
WASHINGTON 25, D.C.
JUN 1 1 ;959
MEMORANDUM FOR: CHAIRMAN, UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE BOARD
SUBJECT: The Soviet Atomic Energy Program--NIE 11-2-59 (C)
1. (U) I wish to thank you for your favorable consideration of my
request to postpone action on Section VIII of NIE 11-2-59 for one week.
The purpose of this memorandum is to inform you of the nature of my
dissent in more detail than is contained in my footnote now affixed to the
draft Section VIII.
2. (S) In the first place, I consider that the publication, backed
by the prestige of the intelligence community, of Section VIII, especially
Tables 13 and 14, portrays an estimate of Soviet intentions in such detail
as to create the serious danger of misuse and miscalculation by the planners
in the various agencies of the government, particularly when used out of
context. Even if used completely in context, the impact of the numerous and
significant qualifications and caveats in the accompanying text is such as
to raise substantial doubts both as to the validity and value of the Tables
as well as to the propriety of presenting such "illustrative allocations."
Thus, I am extremely concerned that the prestige of national intelligence
estimates generally will be lowered through the publication of such untenable
detail. On the one hand, mistaken confidence in the figures could lead to
grave miscalculation and, on the other hand, for the more discerning reader,
the text itself discounts the validity and value of this estimate.
3. (S) Further, I am disturbed by the manner in which this section
has been prepared. It is my understanding that detailed Terms of Reference
n,
for this important part of the estimate were not developed. In addition,
while this estimate is essentially a technical one and, as such, q
properly was undertaken by JAEIC, Section VIII is of a scope far beyond what
I believe to be the responsibility of JAEIC. Uncoordinated advice to JAEIC
from the various elements of the Office of National Estimates and of the
community's estimative machinery is not sufficient to provide the detaled
analysis of broad strategic factors which an undertaking of such magnitude
warrants. I had believed that it was to provide for just such a problem
that the USIB agreed (paragraph 7, USIB-M-22, 27 January 1959) that, even in
the case of JAEIC and GMAIC estimates, the extent of deviation from normal
ARMY, JCS, DOE reviews
completed
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SUBJECT: The Soviet Atomic Energy Program--NIE 11-2-59 (C)
estimative procedures would require USIB approval in each instance. Of
course, such USIB action would have to occur early in the development of
the Terms of Reference in order to define the scope and methodology. In
the absence of Terms of Reference and advance agreement as to the scope of
this estimate, it is now too late to propose substantive changes or
revisions to a draft text which is unacceptable as a basis for discussion.
4. (S) On the basis of the aforementioned factors, I strongly
recommend that Section VIII be deleted in its entirety from NIE 11-2-59
and the main text be published forthwith. If it is felt that there is a
community obligation to provide a more detailed appreciation of Soviet
nuclear capabilities than appears elsewhere in NIE 11-2-59, I suggest that
we explore through the normal estimative machinery the feasible scope of
such an estimate and the development of appropriate Terms of Reference.
In such case, it would appear essential that the forthcoming estimates,
NIE 11-8-59, NIE 11-4-59, and NIE 11-3-60, be available in order to provide
an authoritative and current source for missile inventories; this area is
but one of numerous significant deficiencies in the present Section VIII
concept.
5. (U) Naturally, I have no objections to further dissemination of
this Memorandum by you to other members of the Board.
" ~i~ 04~~
WILLIAM W. QUINN
Major General, GS
Deputy ACofS for Intelligence
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25X1
FORM NO. REPLACES FORM 10.101
1 AUG 54 101 WHICH MAY BE USED.
(47)
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CONFIDENTIAL
UNCLASSIFIED
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
DD/I
CONCURRENCE I I INFORMATION I I SIGNATURE
TAT
00
EO/DCI J 11p 221 Admin 112 Jun 59
(40)
FORM 55 237 wbich Replaces may be Form 30-4
I APR 55 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFI :1955-0 342531
used.
 II
K CLASSIFICATION TOP AND BOTTOM
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
OFFICIAL ROUTING SLIP
NAME AND ADDRESS
DD/I
2 1,
4
H
ACTION
DIRECT REPLY
TAT
1954
STAT
PREPARE REPLY
RECOMMENDATION
RETURN
SIGNATURE
FOLD HERE TO RETURN TO SENDER
EO /DCI /
C
Replaces Form 30-4
whieb may be used.
1p 221 Admin
U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFF(fE ; 1955-0-342531