POLITICO-MILITARY GAME MU I-68-FILM AND COMMENTARY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R001600120004-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2003
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: June 12, 1968
• Content Type: MFR

MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: Politico-Military Game MU 1-68 - Film and Commentary
1. The following personnel have indicated their desire to attend
subject event scheduled for June 27, 1968, from 1330 to 1500, in Room
5 C-10112, the Pentagon:
- Chief,NE Division,DDP
Member,Bd of National Estimates
Chief, OCI/CA/MEA
2. The Joint War Games Agency,JCS, has received acceptances
for attendance at the subject event from the following officials:
The Hon.Joseph W.Barr - Under Sec. of Treasury
The Hon.Paul C.Warnke - Asst Sec,of Def. for ISA
Adm.Thomas H,Moorer - CNO
Gen.Leonard. F.Chapman,Jr. - Commandant, USMC
Lt.Gen.Marshall S.Carter - Director,NSA
STAT
""" ' `""""%,2, CIA Liaison for Games & Exercises
completed.
(EXE" r"
C 3i W z ~ # tl
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CIEMORANDUM FOR: 4)c.
f~~le trc-f l~~i/.~,
FORM Io i REPLACES FORM 10-101
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THE JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20301
Dear Dick,
You and one or two key members of your staff are cordially invited
to join with me to review a video summary and commentary of MU 1-68.
This was an interagency, politico-military game dealing with emerging
trends in the Middle East and their impact upon United States foreign
policy and objectives in a near time frame. The review will be pres-
ented from 1330 to 1500 hours on Thursday, 27 June, in Room 5C-1042,
the Pentagon. Those individuals listed in the enclosure have also been
invited to attend.
I look forward to your personal review of this film briefing and to
your participation in the ensuing discussion. An opportunity to share
your views concerning this critical region would substantially enhance
the value of the review to all in attendance. The atmosphere will be
informal and a policy of non-attribution will be rigidly observed.
The Joint War Games Agency point of contact is Lt Colonel Lyle E.
Mann, USAF, OXford 5-7683, to whom your attendance may be
confirmed.
Sincerely,
EARLE G. WHEELER
Chairman
Joint Chiefs of Staff
Enclosure
a/s
The Honorable Richard M. Helms
Director, Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
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LIST OF ADDRESSEES
The Honorable
Walt W. Rostow
Special Assistant to the President
The White House
Washington, D. C. 20500
The Honorable
Dean Rusk
The Secretary of State
The Department of State
Washington, D. C. 20520
The Honorable
William C. Foster
Director, United States Arms Control
and Disarmament Agency
Washington, D. C. 20451
The Honorable
William S. Gaud
Administrator, Agency for International
Development
Washington, D. C. 20523
The Honorable
Joseph W. Barr
The Under Secretary of the Treasury
The Treasury Department
Washington, D. C. 20220
The Honorable
Richard M. Helms
Director, Central Intelligence Agency
Washington, D. C. 20505
The Honorable
Leonard H. Marks
Director, United States Information
Agency
Washington, D. C. 20547
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The Honorable
'Paul C. Warnke
Assistant Secretary of Defense
for International Security Affairs
The Department of Defense
Washington, D. C. 20301
The Honorable
Phil G. Goulding
Assistant Secretary of Defense
for Public Affairs
The Department of Defense
Washington, D. C. 20301
General Harold K. Johnson
Chief of Staff
United States Army
Washington, D. C. 20301
Admiral Thomas H. Moorer
Chief of Naval Operations
United States Navy
Washington, D. C. 20301
General John P. McConnell
Chief of Staff
United States Air Force
Washington, D. C. 20301
General Leonard F. Chapman, Jr.
Commandant
United States Marine Corps
Washington, D. C. 20301
General Theodore J. Conway, USA
Commander in Chief
United States Strike Command
MacDill AFB, Florida 33608
Admiral Ephraim P. Holmes, USN
Commander in Chief, Atlantic
Norfolk, Virginia 23511
Lieutenant General Marshall S. Carter, USA
Director, National Security Agency
Fort George G. Meade, Maryland 20755
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 Approved
MEMORANDUM
Date - _15 May_ 19 6.8 ----------- __
To:
Subject: MU 1-68
C)
Enclosed is a brief summary and commentary
on a politico-military game conducted in the
Pentagon from 26 April to 14 May. The game
was directed by Mr. Rodger P. Davies, Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State, and addressed
problems this nation faces in the Middle East.
W. H.. BIRDSONG
Brigadier General, USA
Chief, Joint War Games Agency
Attachment
a/s (S-NF)
GROUP-3
Downgraded at 12 year intervals;
Not automatically declassitied.
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POLITICO-MILITARY GAME
MU I-68
Conducted on an interagency basis by the Joint War Games Agency, OJCS.
Written Final Report and 25-minute Film Summary available 15 June 1968.
INITIAL SETTING: 29 April 1969 - US troop commitments in Vietnam
remain.heavy - Soviet influence in Middle East grow s - Arab armies
rebuilt to pre-June 167 levels.
Terrorist activities abate in Jordan Valley in summer ' 68 - Fatah
leaders, with grave reservations, agree to let negotiations begin on
Rhodes - talks achieve initial success in forging agreement between
Israel and the UAR leading to opening of Suez Canal - make little further
progress - terrorist leaders become restive.
In March 1969, terrorism festers again as band hits Shemona from
bases in Lebanon - Israel threatens counteraction - Israeli freighter
denied passage of canal on 27 April.
RESULTING CRISIS: Fatah agents liberate and arm 1500 Arab
prisoners - 300 Israelis killed as Arabs escape into Jordan - on
.28 April, four Israeli brigades push into Irbid Heights in reprisal.
Israel expands salient south to Salt - ten mile from Amman -
determines to retain newly gained territory as bfer to terrorism -
asks US not to interfere in UN.
US informs Israel unable to support invasion - votes condemnation
of Israel in Security Council - urges Israel to withdraw.
Arabs feel climate of world opinion favorable - USSR will support
Arabs - US will not support Israel - common threat drives Arabs to
unity of action - resolve to mount combined and concerted counter-
attack to repel Israelis - USSR counsels Arabs against military action
and exerts political pressures to bring about cease-fire and Israeli
withdrawal.
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Arabs launch attack two days early as original plans for 10 May leak -.
pre-empt against Israeli air assets - achieve considerable success -
destroy all but three days of aviation fuel - Israelis hurl back Arab
ground thrust - march on Amman and Damascus.
US and USSR see their respective clients threatened - domestic pressures
mount on US Administration to help Israel - US offers air cover if Israel
agrees to cease-fire and withdrawal - as a political move, USSR lands two
battalions of naval infantry at Latakia.
Cease-fire imposed - Arabs and Israelis move to negotiations on Rhodes -
initial round produces some grounds for agreement but status of Jerusalem
still a crunch point.
CRITIQUE HIGHLIGHTS: US players felt relatively aloof stance regarding
Israeli realistic - took account of American political realities - felt Israelis
would be tough to handle - decided to be tough also - wanted to avoid con-
frontation with Soviets - rejected military,r, intervention not because of lack
of assets, but because they couldn't see what it would: buy them.
Israeli team members felt most objectives achieved - didn't cave to any
great extent on negotiating issues - could afford to give up on face-to-face
talks to gain US support - estimated that pre-emption would be more costly
than June '67 - Israel could weather Arab pre-emption - felt loss of air
assets might force US support.
Arab players felt unity of action realistic - Arabs had no place to go -
people demanded action - even a loss would not be damaging if Arab forces
at least made a stand - recognized that fissures might appear if conflict
protracted.
Soviet team viewed behavior of clients as irritatinz - but Soviets had to
support Arabs so as not to lose them - privately, team did not want Israel
to go down - presence of Israel serves their purposes.
Change in balance of power - even a limited Arab victory - would alter
negotiating demands of both sides - US and USSR both recognized require
ment might exist to impose a settlement - both preferred such action be
more multilateral - Soviets, under pressure of crisis, would cooperate
initially - but then seek renewal of turbulence.
US and USSR teams both feared confrontation - tended to overrate each
other's military potential in the Middle East - US constrained by effects
intervention might have on US interests in the Arab states.
Game seemed to ask anew two questions - is there real danger of US/
USSR confrontation in the Middle East or is it possible to negotiate a
settlement of the Arab/Israeli conflict?
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MEMORANDUM FOR: Joint War Owes Agency, OJCE
f A,UT: CIA Participation in AM 1-68
T. The following officers have been nominated to participate a 25X1
players In MU 168:
All of the
clearances.
e TOP $ECR.
FOR TB DEPUTY TIR TOR FOR P TANS:
cc: Ex. Asst/DDCI
25X1
dO M, 0 T aid
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1-67 I
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