MEMORANDUM FOR HOLDERSM 0F'EVALUATION OF OFFENSDIV THREAT IN CUBA' (CIA TS NO. 159170

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R001900170001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 25, 1962
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2004/07/08 CIA-RDP80B01676R00190017000'1-5-
SECRET
Office of the Executive Secretary
25 October 1962
1. Pursuant to action of the United States Intelligence Board
on 24 October 1962 the "Evaluation of Offensive Threat in Cuba",
21 October 1962 is downgraded to
SECRET.
2. In accordance therewith, holders are requested to annotate
their copies of the document to indicate this USIB -approved change
in classification,
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SECRET
Executive Secr to y
fgrdi n'ondo
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EVALUATION
OF
OFFENSIVE THREAT IN CUBA
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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 Approved For Release 20 Ui~0/( CG ikDP80B01676R001900170001-5
OFFICE OF
THE DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
21 October 1962
MEMORANDUM FOR: The Members of the United States Intelligence Board
SUBJECT : Evaluation of Offensive Threat in Cuba
1. The attached copy of the subject intelligence memorandum is
forwarded for your information, guidance, and appropriate action. As
agreed by the USIB, it is to be used as background material for oral
briefings to authorized personnel only. Reproduction is not authorized.
2. It is believed that sufficient copies have been forwarded to you to
meet the immediate operational requirement for preparation of briefings.
Requests for additional copies or for initial distribution from offices not
under your immediate control, but in your department of the Government,
will be referred to you for action.
25X'
Marshall S. Carter
Lieutenant General, USA
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
SECRET
TEY
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EVALUATION OF OFFENSIVE THREAT IN CUBA
Significance
1. A significant deployment of guided missiles to Cuba is already
well advanced, and has proceeded by first deploying a large force of
defensive weapons, followed quickly by long-range offensive guided
missiles and aircraft. (See Figure 1.) A mixed force of 1000- and
2200-nm ballistic missiles in Cuba provides for the first time a signi-
ficant strategic strike capability against almost all targets in the U. S.,
and against a large portion of Canada and Latin America. (See Figure 2.)
The planning for this operation must have started at least one year ago
and the actual deployment itself began last spring.
Offensive Deployment
2. The equipment for 1000-nm ballistic missiles is now being de-
ployed in Western Cuba at four launch sites near San Cristobal. (See
Figures 3-5.) Two of these are now operational and the other two are
proceeding to this status on an accelerated basis.
I Each
of the four sites contains eight missiles and four unrevetted, field type
launchers which rely on mobile erection, checkout, and support equipment.
This implies a refire capability from each unit.
3. Other 1000-nm ballistic missiles are also deployed at two sites
nine miles apart, east of Havana in the Sagua La Grande area. (See Figures
8-9.) These sites closely resemble the sites at San Cristobal but appear
to be more permanent in nature. Terrain features have dictated con-
siderable clearing and grading for deployment of the system. Also,
there are permanent structures at the launch positions at each site and
we estimate an operational capability for each site within one week. The
sizes of the missiles, associated equipment, and buildings found at the
San Cristobal and Sagua La Grande sites are almost identical and are
compatible with the 1000-nm missile system.
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4. Two fixed sites for 2200-nm, ballistic missiles are under con-
struction in the Guanajay area near Havana. (See Figures 6-7.) Four
launchers, two blockhouses, and underground propellant storage are being
built at each site. Site 1 is considered to be in a mid-to-late stage of con-
struction and should be operational within six weeks. Site 2 is in an earlier
stage of construction and could be operational between 15 and 30 Dec-
ember 1962. There are no missiles or support equipment detectable
within the Guanajay Area at the present time.
5. An additional fixed site has been observed at Remedios in Eastern
Cuba which is similar to those at Guanajay. This is probably a valid
indicator of deployment of a secondgroupingof2200-nm ballistic missiles.
6. In addition to missiles, IL-28 light bomber aircraft with a combat
radius of about 750 miles are also arriving in Cuba. Approximately 22
of these bombers, are now present. These are in
addition to the force of about 40 MIG-21 fighters there.
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Support and Supply
12. Offensive missile systems are being introduced into Cuba through
the Port of Mariel and perhaps other ports. A new Soviet ship, the Poltava,
possibly designed as a ballistic missile transport, has been noted making
frequent trips between the USSR and Cuba. (See Figure 11.) This ship
has made two trips to Cuba since 17 July, and is next estimated to arrive
in Cuba on or about 2 . November 1962.
13. Possible central missile checkout, storage, and repair bases
have been located at Soroa, . between the two eastern deployment areas,
and at Managua, south of Havana.
14. It is significant that all of the ballistic and air defense missiles
now being deployed in Cuba probably use a common oxidizer, permitting
exploitation of a common system for propellant supply and storage.
Coastal Defense Missiles
15. Three coastal defense missile sites have now been identified in
Cuba, two of which must now be considered operational (Banes and
Santa Cruz del Norte). (See Figure 10.) These cruise missiles have
a range of 35 to 40 miles.
Air Defense Missiles
16. There are now 24 primary surface-to-air missile sites located
in Cuba. (See Figure 10.) Two of these sites, Santa Lucia and Deleite,
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