REQUEST FOR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON CEYLON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R002900270013-0
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 6, 2003
• Sequence Number: 13
• Publication Date: February 21, 1963
• Content Type: MF

The Nonorable
John A. *cCone,
Director, Central Intelligence Agency
a -;s
Approved For Release 2003/04/25 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900270013-0
DEPARTMENT OF STATE
S ECT: Request for National Intelligence Estinste
on Ceylon
It appears probable that the suspension of U. S. aid to Ceylon
will have ,political and ecoaasdc repercussions of eerie significance
for U. S. policy with respect to that country. We therefore propose
that a National Intelligence Estimate be scheduled for Ceylon which
will examine the probable nature at these repercussions and the out-
look generally for Ceylon over the next few years. Suggested terms
of reference are attached.
For maxim- utility to the Department the NIE should be treated
as a matter of some urgency. Representatives of this Bureau have
already discussed the question of scheduling with representatives of
the Orifice of !national Estimates. The latter have indicated
tentatively that a schedule permitting approval by the U BIB on
March 20 probably would be feasible. This date would be satisfactory
tow.
Attachment:
Bu ested Tests of Reference (Ms+Oer)
State Dept. review c6 i1%'t@d For Release 2003/04/25 :CIA-RDP80 167 J 7 U =b -" '=
 Approved For Release 2003/04/25 : CIA
,7RDP80B01676R002900270013-0
PAWECTSD NIE ON CZ!LC g( TLA[s OF RMEMCE
The Problem
TO estiaeite the main trends in Ceylon over the next few years.
I I. POLITICAL
1. How is the Bloc likely to exploit the suspension of U. S. aid?
Which segments of Ceylonese society are most vulnerable to anti-US and
general anti-Western propaganda? Is anti-US feeling widespread? What
effect on popular attitudes vill the suspension of US aid have?
2. What are the prospects for polttt-al ntabtlity during the next
few years? Is the Sri Lanka Freedom Party losing popular a general election likely to be called before 19651 ? What is the
Is
strength, present and
left extremist potential of the United latiooal Party-1
rty? The
parties? The Tamil-oriented parties? What trends are
discernible in the labor movement?
3. Now would the departure of Mrs. Bandaranaike affect Ceylon's
stability? What individuals and political forces would gain control of
the Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the govercment? What policies would be
pursued?
4. Is there a likelihood of another c atw
a
or left? In what circumstances might the miilita establishment pt' eitrpl ay right
role in-political affairs? ~' a
II. ECOlcMic
What effect is the recently announced suspension of US aid likely
to have on Ceylon's econcaic development? Are Ceylon's aid and trade
relations with the Bloc likely to expand? Is Ceylon likely to put into
effect a coordinated and effective economic development program? What
tort of au ecexiam,y ie Ueveiopir to C,1riau and what +-re LLe liwe.l
political implications? What are the longer term prospects, with
particular reference to population and employment prospects?
III. INTMUUTloruJ, AFFAIR
Likely developments in Ceylon's relationscf
4th the U8, the IAC,
Communist China, the Soviet Union and its E4kV',&9Uropean satellites, and
India. What viii be. its role in the United rlIations? What is the state
of its relations with the Maldive Islands? What would be the significance
of Ceylon'.s becoming a republic?,..:
Approved For Release 20f~3/04/25 Tk--'ftD P80 8016 2900278033- ..,.