MID-YEAR CROP PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80B01676R002900290015-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 20, 2004
• Sequence Number: 15
• Publication Date: August 5, 1963
• Content Type: BRIEF

SE
6Fed For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900290015-6
Current Support Brief
MID-YEAR CROP PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST CHINA
CIA/RR CB 63-63
5 August 1963
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Research and Reports
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
25X1
25X1
 25X1 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80B0)676R002900290015-6
MID-YEAR CROP PROSPECTS IN COMMUNIST CHINA
As of mid-July, prospects are that the early grain harvest in Com-
munist China, consisting primarily of early rice and winter wheat, will
be less than the poor crop of last year. Output of early rice will be
lower than last year, and there is likely to be little if any increase in the
harvest of winter wheat. The early grain crops (excluding tubers) nor-
mally account for one-fourth of the total annual production of grain.
Although it is too early to determine what the fall harvest will be, the
unfavorable weather conditions in portions of South, Central, and East
China already have delayed the planting of rice in many areas. Low
water levels in many reservoirs suggest that the water needed for the
early growth of the fall rice may be deficient in wide areas of South
China, whereas unusually heavy rainfall in portions of Central and
East China has increased the possibility of flooding, seed rot, and
insect damage.
The poor prospects for the early grain harvest are largely the
result of unfavorable weather during the past 2 months, although weather
conditions in the winter and early spring had already caused some deterio-
ration in the outlook for a good crop. Since the fall of 1962, weather con-
ditions in Communist China have been characterized by unusual extremes
in rainfall and temperatures (see Figure 1). A severe cold spell occurred
over large areas in January and April, a prolonged drought developed in
South China, and unseasonal heavy spring rains fell in portions of East
and Central China.
25X1
25X1
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900290015-6
 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
COMMUNIST CHINA
PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION
September-May 200
SEPT. 61 11 SEPT. 62
-MAY 62 -MAY 63
o-1
a
419 oG~ ?~ O~G ~p~ ~~9 ~pR pQ~ tppy S~Q~ ?G,
200
100
0
41, o6 eo?, 4~ 4`1 40 0R pQg gyp,
4? oG, ~?, c )pt,
~~9 ~pR pQ~ ~.py
IAI
/ o6 ?o, O~ 1p~ ~~0 0`1 PQ~ gyp, C, it 04 O1-G 011 pQ(~ Cpl
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
, o6 '?, O~ )P~ ~~0 ~P~ pQ~ ~p1
0 c
CCD
 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80 Oi 676R002900290015-6
1. General
The sowing period for winter wheat to be harvested in 1963, September
through November 1962, was the most favorable for the past several years
due to above-normal rainfall throughout most of Communist China. Be-
ginning in December 1962, however, the favorable weather conditions
deteriorated rapidly into a prolonged winter drought. Precipitation dur-
ing the period December 1962 through February 1963 ranged from only
15 to 60 percent of normal throughout the major agricultural areas of
China. In addition, an abnormal cold wave in January probably caused
substantial losses in the winter sweet potato crop as far south as the
Kwangtung coast. The probable losses in the potato crop not only would
affect the supply of sorely needed foodstuffs but also would reduce the
supply of potatoes for livestock feed.
The spring months, which are important for the growth of winter
wheat and for the transplanting of early rice, were characterized by
persistent drought in South China and the southern portion of Central
China, and prolonged rainfall caused extensive flooding and waterlog-
ging in East China and in large areas of Central and Northern China,
as shown in Figure 2. This unusual weather pattern is attributed to
the early dissipation of the Siberian winter high over Central and North
China, resulting in an acceleration of the northern movement of the
warm moist air from the South China Sea. Consequently, the warm
moist air flowed across Southern China before encountering the cooler
air necessary to induce precipitation and became a stationary system
in the vicinity of the Yangtze River. The heavy rains that accompanied
this system caused flooding and waterlogging in the Yangtze River area
in April through early June. Drought conditions persisted in the impor-
tant early rice regions to the south and southwest with the exception of
the Szechwan Basin, where crop prospects appear to be relatively
favorable.
2. Early Rice Crop
Prospects for the early rice crop, most of which is harvested in
June and July and which normally accounts for about one -half of the
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
 roved For Release 2004/07/Q8 CIA RT 80B01676R002900290015-6
:T INA
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION
UN 0L1A
ON )C hl
March - May 1963
LAQS
GROUP 1
I ac-ern cussirici
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80BO1676R002900290015-6
 Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80Q81676R002900290015-6
total early grain harvest (excluding tubers), are bleak, The coastal
region of Kwangtung Province and the southeastern portion of Fukien
Province, the most important early rice areas in China (see Figure 3),
have been subjected to prolonged drought. indicate 25X1
that in many areas of Kwangtung the area sown to early rice was only
20 to 50 percent of normal because of insufficient water and that plants
wilted and died in many of the fields where transplanting had been coxn-
pleted. low water levels 25X1
in the coastal reservoirs. It is believed that most of this water was
expended in April in an attempt to transplant as many fields as possible.
However, the monsoons failed to materialize as expected, thus leaving
these fields in a precarious position. 2~1
enerall
dr
diti
h
g
y
y con
ons t
roughout southern and centra
unan Province (see Figure 4).
Drought also was severe in Fukien Province through May. Serious
drought damage was reported in the Lunghsi Special District, an impor-
tant early rice producing area in southeast Fukien. In addition, tor-
rential rains in mid-June necessitated the "salvaging" of as much of the
ripening crop as possible. The ripening rice crop in the important
Changchou Plain area of Fukien also was reported to be flooded.
Drought conditions affected the early rice crop in Kwangsi
and in much of southern and central Hunan and Kiangsi Provinces.
April that one-fifth of all the early rice fields in
Kwangsi lacked water, and rainfall has averaged less than 30 percent
of normal since that time. On the other hand, the early rice crop was
suffering from flooding in many areas in Hupeh, northern Hunan, and
northern Kiangsi Provinces (see Figure 5).
Unseasonal heavy rains combined with cool temperatures have re-
sulted in seed rot in many areas of Eastern China. The Wu-hu Special
District, which produces about three-fourths of Anhwei's grain, re-
ported one-third of its farmland flooded in mid-April. As a result,
seed decay had developed in both the early and the mid-season rice
crops.
25X1
Approved For Release 2004/07/08 : CIA-RDP80B01676R002900290015-6
 Comosid FChI sse 2004/07/08 S
Early Rice Areas by Regions
_ .o P. t Eddy
istribution o Total Rice Production 1952 Fwurdi ,-
Oae dot = 2,500 m.L Rk. (1937) S S. ?
NG
t~v,. Z.. 1l CL NC' 1A
V
?Z
01 \-09
ti
.
,
SFA
si,
Ftlo
? -
KOREA !l J,tt'~~
v
.... ??? .1'1--~ 1 N 1 ~~
Q ~ gl.cH~^lc, 1 Av'
?~ _ `~. NG tiHIH f t, emorcoto
INNER
Ur l
0?E1 ORE
~~~'h~ ygLLOw
KANSU
`
tso D
~
;_ HUl sHANSI 1?~ 0 ?, 4
C J --~? zt,,
S
-5 ET1SI
x O N A N R\G 1 sHaSH N nt
AAp
l
L
R
.. \,
OF EP Y
O-r NORTH
j~
RN
F "y
;
r;ASz
SZE H~WAN xuPEx Yu,~^ AN
CHINA
~-~' ~'
SOUT ST
' cNfK ANG SFA
IL
~
,
?
13. % \
n
.. 4
xtJNAN K1 G51 'IFI-I
F
I
o ti
,{ 1 E` 6
KWEICH )VV LE -
a _
ap ? V
`
~
of
fUN(3 KWA ! 2` CHUANG KW A t
NOMOU$J? UOTt~t
H,i U "AN ?
ap R /O c'hi