A NORTH KOREAN ATTACK (PRE-H-HOUR SCENARIO STUDY) (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M00165A001000100012-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2006
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: June 15, 1977
• Content Type: MF

Approved For RI s 115: CIA-RDP80M0016 A00100010t 1-0
TSCW-20102/DB-2
_'FENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20301
15 JUN 1977
SUBJECT: A North Korean Attack (Pre-H-Hour Scenario
Study) (U)
1. (S/NOFORN) In January, General Vessey, Commander in
Chief, United Nations Command (CINCUNC), expressed his
concern over the Indications and Warning (I&W) in Korea
and recommended several topical areas wherein improvements
might be sought. Among these, he requested that "worst
case" scenarios for a North Korean attack be developed.
It was hoped that these scenarios would permit the develop-
ment of promising indicators of hostilities and improvement
in our collection and analytic efforts.
2. (S/NOFORN) Accordingly, a Scenario Study Group, com-
prised of intelligence analysts from the Central Intelligence
Agency, National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency,
the Services, Pacific Command (PACOM), CINCUNC and Intelli-
gence Pacific (IPAC), and operations personnel from PACOM
and CINCUNC, was convened. Although the Group met in formal
session only during the period 2-13 May, intensive effort
continued throughout the month of May. The completed
Scenario Study is forwarded herewith. It represents the
most intensive study to date on how the North Koreans would
prepare for an attack against the Republic of Korea. The
important task of collection analysis of the postulated
scenario events is underway on a priority basis.
3. (S/NOFORN) I am pleased with the efforts of the Study
Group and believe their efforts have resulted in the identi-
fication of some promising indicators and in a series of
recommendations which merit serious consideration. All
have potential for improvement in our I&W posture vis a vis
Korea. Additionally, the Study represents an importanE
contribution to the forthcoming National Intelligence
Estimate Warning in Korea, NIE 14-21-77. MORI/CDF
DIA REVIEW(S) COMPLETED.
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4. (U) Inasmuch as recommendations one and four (pages 4.
and 5. respectively) fall within the purview of the Committee
on Imagery Requirements and Exploitation (COMIREX), I re-
quest that these recommendations be referred to the Committee
for consideration and implementation. The remaining recom-
mendations have been referred to the appropriate agency.
1 Enc onurp
Study
1 cy
SAMUEL V. WILSON
V Lieutenant General, USA
Director
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