ADMIRAL TURNER'S QUESTION RE: 'NIE FOR THE MIDDLE EAST' OF SEPTEMBER 1976

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M00165A002500110023-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 5, 2004
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: February 15, 1977
• Content Type: MF

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15 February 1977
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
Executive Assistant to
DCI-Designate
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SUBJECT: Admiral Turner's Question re: "NIE
for the Middle East" of September 1976
1. Attached are the following documents requested by
Admiral Turner after meeting with a Member of Congress who
claimed the NIE and related material had a "pro-Arab bias."
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Approved For Release 2004/05 M00165AT2500110023-1
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C. Dr. Joseph Churba: "Post Mortem on Middle East
Estimates: the Soviet Factor date 6 Octo er 976. his
paper is, again, not an Intelligence Community product and
apparently was prepared at Dr. Churba's own initiative.
According to MGEN Tighe (Asst. Chief of Staff, Intelligence,
USAF), it has not been disseminated.
Dr. Churba is concerned with Estimates written between
August 1967 and December 1973; he does not address NIEs produced
after 1973 and his paper is not applicable to later NIEs, including
that attached as Item. A. The thesis he wishes to advance is that
Community analysts, during this period, failed to understand
the "full magnitude" of Soviet involvement in the Middle East.
(Note: I have marked those sections of Churba's paper which
discuss his thesis.)
2. Concerning Admiral Turner's request for my independent
analysis of the above three documents insofar as I detect a lack
of full objectivity in the NIE itself, and particularly if the
NIE might have done more to present differing views or conclusions,.
I need only point out that either Dr. Churba or his associate
participated in all the Community meetings which resulted in the
production of the NIE - including the drafting of the Terms of
Reference. Accordin to the lational Intelligence Officer for the
Middle East ho chaired these meetings, Dr. Churba
provided two dissenting views which can be found on pages 1 and 3
of the Estimate. These dissents - which were endorsed by the then
Asst. Chief of Staff, Intelligence, USAF (MGEN George Keegan) - hold
that F- 7
ana tnat e soviets may now. perceive that a unilateral projection
of their military forces into a Middle East conflict could be
accomplished with minimum risk.
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4. The second dissent asserts that the Soviets have not
only more positive perceptions of their possibilities in the
Middle East, but also greater capabilities to project military
power into the area than they are credited with by the NIE.
Again, no evidence is offered for this different view of Soviet
perceptions and capabilities, and it is noteworthy that the
two sections of the NIE which specifically and at length conceal:-
trate on these questions do not contain dissents by Dr. Churba.
5. It should be noted here that the national estimating
process.is_ designed to ensure the inclusion of dissents for the
purpose of providing all informed opinion possible in the intelli-
gence assessments presented by the DCI to the President and the
NSC. Although every effort is made to arrive at a single
Community view, any NIO who attempted to suppress or otherwise
distort dissenting opinions from one or another element of the
Community would find himself effectively challenged by an appeal
to.the DCI by the NFIB member whose representative believed
himself so suppressed. As far as the NIE in question is concerned,
I have been unable to discover any indication that Dr. Churba felt
he was constrained in any way in making his dissents.
6. As a final item, I attach two clippings from the New
York Times concerning Dr. Churba, who as you are aware, is no
longer employed by Air Force Intelligence. It is evident from
these articles - as well as from his paper - that Dr. Churba holds
very strongly to certain assumptions about the intentions of the
Soviet Union in the Middle East. Although as noted above Air
Force Intelligence has not disseminated his paper and, indeed,
specifically denied its release to inquiring Senate staff members,
Dr. Churba's views appear to be known to the Hill.
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