INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY REVIEW OF REPORTING ON CHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M00772A000100010031-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2004
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: January 12, 1978
• Content Type: MF

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Approved For Release 2004/08/30 : CIA-RDP80M00772A000100010031-5
DCI/IC 77-2546
1.2 JAN 1978
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
25X1 FROM:
Acting Deputy to the DCI for the
Intelligence Community
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25X1
SUBJECT: Intelligence Community Review of Reporting on China
1. II Action Requested: That you approve publishing the attached
IC Staff study and also that you approve furnishing copies to the intel-
ligence committees of the Senate and House of Representatives.
2. II Background: Attachment was prepared by a CIA/OSR analyst
detailed to the IC Staff in connection with an IC Staff assessment of
intelligence reporting on China. The object of this effort was to
determine if deficiencies exist with respect to intelligence products
on Chinese political developments. To produce meaningful judgments with
respect to U.S. intelligence performance, the scope of the study was
limited to coverage of leadership politics in China from 1965-1975.
25X1 3. While the study was in draft, the IC Staff conducted a
detaile review of its content and conclusions by a broadly represen-
tative group of analysts and consumers of intelligence products on China
within the National Security Council, State, and the Office of the Sec-
retary of Defense. The results of this review have been incorporated
in the study and its Principal Judgments, which are set forth on page 1
of the attachment. Basically, the participants in this effort have
concluded that overall assessments on China were reasonably accurate
during the period under review, given the closed nature of Chinese
society, despite evident weaknesses in predicting specific leadership
changes.
25X1
4. II Staff Position: We believe that the preparation of the
attachment and its subsequent assessment by analysts and consumers under
IC Staff auspices has provided a useful evaluation of the analytical
methodologies which have been applied to the difficult problem of
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g
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 SM19-ET NOrl
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.SUBJECT: Intelligence Community Review of Reporting on China
Chinese leadership analysis and represents an evaluative technique of
potential value in measuring user satisfaction with other categories
of intelligence products.
5. II Recommendation: That you approve publication of the
attached IC Staff study and that you authorize us to provide copies to
the SSCI and HPSCI.
Attachment: I
An Appraisal of Intelligence,Sources and
Analyses in the Fall of Teng Hsiao-p'ing
and in the Rise of Hua Kuo-feng
APPROVED: %9
Director of Central Intelligence
Director of Central Intelligence
JAN 2 3 1978
ECG
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- Addressee
- ER
- AD/DCI/IC
- D/OPEI
- PAID Subject
- PAID Chrono
DCI/IC/OPEI/PAID:
22 December 1977
Approved For Release 2004/08/30 : CIA-RDP80M00772A000100010031-5