NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE LECTURE 3 FEBRUARY 1956 ASSESSMENT OF COMMUNIST SUCCESSES, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP80M01009A001402440006-9
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 29, 2013
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: February 3, 1956
• Content Type: MISC

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NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE LECTURE
3 February 1956
ASSESSMENT OF COMMU21L5T SUCCESSES, PROBLEMS
AND PROSPECTS
1. Basic Considerations.
(a) No change in Soviet objective., tactical variations within
traditional Communist zig- ass theory Le Stalin. Policy
makers must avoid being deceived by temporary variations
Soviet policy.
(b) No change likely as long as present leadership and present system
mains in Kremlin. Obviously problem of dur own popular opinion
mains and we must avoid impression of warlike posture, threats, etc.
(c) They must demonstrate performance not promises.
(d) Continued massive military build up as threat to hold over he
neutralists and as deterrent to U.S.A. and allies.
(e) Despite lip service to raising lving standard and consumers
goods, they will continue to devote as now some 35 per cent of
their gross national production to capital investment largely
adapted to military end items.
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(f) Whereas industrial output in 1950 roughly 1/5th of USA it is
projected under their 5 year plan to be about 2i5ths in 1960.
(g) New 5 year plan provides for the tripling or quadrupling of
items in the electronic field and a sixfold increase of
production of separate heat resistance alloys, pointing up
emphasis on items for guided missiles, jet engines, aircraft, etc.
.(h) In steel, their 1955 production rose to 45 million metric tons
(against 106 for USA), and in primary aluminium to 500, 000
metric tons (as against 1.4 million for USA). (Look at contrast
in automobiles and trucks where their production 1/20th of ours
washing znachines.1/50th, and radio and TV sets where they are
about 115th of our, for a population 1/4th greater.)
(i) Making substantial strides in cr
(1) Nuclear.
(2) Jet and long range aircraft.
(3) Guided missiles.
fields:
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(j) Policy dornhated for immediate future by determination to
avoid risk of zna,lor war.
(k) At present state of their nuclear, aircraft and missile developme
do not wish risk danger of massive nuclear retaliation, hence will
avoid risky adventures. Consider themselves encircled by our
oversea bases and undermining of these bases will be main
element of their policy.
2. Balance
(a) With this background of basic element. of Soviet policy, let us
draw a balance sheet of Soviet policy over the past decade.
(b) Where do we stand in the Cold War struggle.
(c) USA really first aroused to magnitude and nature of Communist
threat period beginning1946-47 and started to react.
(d) Have gone through two phases and now enteringa third phase
of Soviet Cold War techniques.
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(e) The first phase started with following events:
(1) Greece threatened with Communist take-over from mid 1946
on. Iran and Turkey threatened with aggression.
) European economy
ci
early 1947 on.
(3) Csechoslovaia fell to Communism February 1948.
(4) Commrxunist threate
over italy in April 1948 elections.
) Berlin blockade started June 1948.
(6) ChIna Main' land threatened with Communist conquest by
mid 947 and lost by October 1949 (fall of Nanking April 1949)?
Cumulative effect these developments. Stunned government.
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The First Answer:
(a) Aid to Greece and Turkey started April 1947 - (U 5).
(b) Commies ousted from French and Italian governments in May 947.
(c) Marshall plan and NATO. (Voted April 1948, emergency aid
December 1947).
(d) I
(f
ections won by anti-Co(April 1948).
) Berlin airlift. (July 1948).
9 had responded with reasonable success to various
Soviet thrusts in Europe. But, China lost with impact on Indochina.
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4. The Second Threat.
(a) Repulsed in European efforts to extend direct Soviet control
by end 1950, and perhaps encouraged by their first A-bomb
test (September 1949), and China success. the Soviets turned
to military aggression by proxy, through their satellites.
(1) Korea.
(Z) Indochina.
(b) In 1950-51, Viet Minh, having only ittle Chinese or Soviet aid
were repulsed by de Lattre.
, (c) In 1952 and 1953, Chinese Communist aid was stepped up,
Dien Bien Phu invested in Deceniber, lost April 1954.
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.
The Second Ammer. (To open sures
011
(a) Communist blocked but not defeated in Korea,
(b) In Indochina, saved what was salvageable without war
worked to build up a Diem government.
(c) Start toward bringing Germany into NATO and rear
(d) SEATO and coalition in SEA.
(e) Baghdad Pact.
(f) Congressional resolution re Defense Formosa (Quemoy and Matsu).
(g) Mossaxlegh overthrown in Iran.
(h) Arbenz driven from Guatemala.
On balance West fared well. (For example 1 1/4 million East
Germane fled from their "paradise" since 1949 -- now nearly
1000 day).
*7
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6. The Third Threat (And the Answer).
(a) Peace and Bli
makers
Red Riding Hood.
Ruble, Rifle and Ric - arming the trouble
mic penetration - appeal to neutrals Little
(b) Said due Stalin's demise (February
propter hoc" fallacy.
(c) Typical Commie strategy - retreat regroup and attack on new
front Lenin' policy ZIG-ZAG. Soviets don't want war now -
had come to verge in Korea and Indochina.
(d) Wanted new policy so subtle no danger of war involvement.
Really frightened at trend. Chose soft "underbelly" of Asia
prom Syriz to Siam.
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(e) Their Smoke Screen (Retreat) Because their bluU called,
(1)
(We weren t caught napping - but how could you
refuse without playing their game).
(2) Austrian peace. (First Soy held territory given up).
(3) Swallowed threats about January rearming and joining NATO.
(4) Communist China temporarily halted attack on off -shore islands.
(5) Settled for half-a-loaf in lndoch1n.a
(f) Asian Underbelly Policy:
(I) Appeal to former "Colonial" or recently free areas - Arab
World, India, Burma, Afgans, etc.
Economic aid.
Military aid where it will cause trouble
(Egypt - Israel)
(Their excess of 123
Merchants of Death on a Grand Scale.
MIG- 15, IL-28
Tanks, old subs
Use of Satellites - Czechoslovakia, Poland, etc.
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(g) Seale - some half billion promised and good bit in pipe line -
Some ZOO million of arms to Egypt - 100 million steel milli
for India - 100 million credit for Afghans (22 years withdraw
annually).
Buying Burma rice, etc. (Real cost not great).
(Ix) Discuss subtlety and appeal of new look.
(1) Read
mo on reasons for Commie appeal.
swer to Third Thr (In the Making
The New Yorker Cartoon.
Must tackle this problem a
with Marshall Plan. But in
not the answer.
tackled Europe collapse in 1947-48
case great outpouring of money
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While c
ting their major drive on Middle East, South and
Southeast Asia, Commies are not neglecting Europe and Far East.
(a) In Europe encouraged by French elections (explain) and by the
prospect of upcoming Italian elections. Despite some troubled
areas in Satellites, consider their basic hold there to be secure.
While same true in East Germany, have a worrying situation U
East Germany gains more independence and its own military force.
(h) In Far East, desire hold Comimmist Chins back from adventuresome
activities that might bring war. Do not object to their keeping
up the pressure and feel that Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia,
Malaya, Indonesia, etc. present likely targets.
9. Over-aU Summation.
Popular ImpressionLed by colul1miuts and prophets of gloom not
borne out by calm appraisal. They are not winning the Cold War,
but they are not losing it and still see prospects ahead for their
new line of policy.
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. - ?
10. But they too have their problems. (Recall Nazi situation
(a) Question of Kremlin leadership - how long can Committee form
last. Khru c ev seems to be consolidating his hold
(Mention Kruglov, etc.).
(b) The agricultural problem.
(c) Hanging to and controlling satellite areas and China.
(d) Keeping their people under control without really improving living
standards for effect of their "open door" policy to visiting delegations.
(e) How to maintain iron discipline and State direction with vast
expansion of education - scientific training, etc.
1 1 . Conclusions.
No reason to be panicky. No evidence that popular support for
Communist form of government has increased over past year in any
Important areas, though still some soft spots. Their promising
program is "making hay," but will their performance equal
expectations.
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